Snooker March 22nd

8-2 in snooker up 8.82 units

Ryan Day ML for 2 units at +121. Ryan Day opened his last match against world #1 Mark Selby with a century and never looked back. Day has won the past two tournaments he has played in and is just in better form than Mark Williams. Day went 4-5 against Williams in 2017 and he was not half as hot then as he is now. This is a “home” match for both of these Welshman, so no angle there. Day has not lost a match in almost a month and if he loses this one, he can surely blame me.

 

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Golf – WGC Dell Technologies Match Play

2-4 on golf in 2018 down 3.19 units

Won some units on the first day of this match play tournament so decided I’d share my golf plays for the first time since the Phoenix Open. Also, Tiger is back in case you didn’t hear.

Dell Technologies Wednesday Preview and Predictions:

Ian Poulter over Daniel Berger at -110 for 3 units. Berger did not look great on day 1 and he was my only loss on the day. Poulter is using the putter than won him and Europe the 2012 Ryder cup in what was the “Miracle in Medinah”. I like the good juju the putter brings and how much better Poulter looked than Berger on Wednesday. Also, Poulter is 24-14 in match play in his career.

Jhonattan Vegas over Rory McIlroy at +232 for 1 unit.

Adam Hadwin over Dustin Johnson at +185 for 2 units. If you are going to bet on Vegas, bet on Hadwin and vice versa. Johnson and McIlroy both looked awful on Wednesday, even though Rory picked it up over the back nine. Dustin Johnson looked terrible and shot a 9 over with plenty of bogeys. This is more about value than anything. I am betting on one of these top 10 players to continue playing poorly on Thursday.

Francesco Molinari over Luke List at -130 for 2 units. Molinari had 6 birdies on Wednesday and dominated the par 5s. I thought this line would be closer to -160 so I am taking the value here. Molinari hit 15 of 17 greens and and 12 of 13 fairways. List bent his putter and could not use it on the final holes, but he played fine.. just not good enough to be almost even odds with Francesco.

Keegan Bradley over Kiradech Aphibarnrat at +110 for 2 units. Bradley had 3 straight birdies and then an eagle on the turn and still lost to Rahm. Kiradech played well and is leading the group after 1 day. Keegan is the better golfer and at plus money. Bradley seemed to understand these greens and I think that will be the difference here.

Bubba Watson over Marc Leishman at -125 for 4 units. Watson birdied 7 of the first 9 holes. Leishman lost to late entry Suri. Marc bogeyed the first two holes and never could get back in the game. Bubba was putting like he was on easy mode in a video game Wednesday. If Watson putted like that all the time, he would have more than two majors. Bubba is setting himself up well to try and win his 3rd masters.

 

 

NCAAB March 22nd

15-10-1 on NCAAB in 2017 up 5.25 units

63-57-2 on NCAAB in 2018 up 7.32 units

27-22-2 on NCAA Tournament up 6.74 units

Sweet Sixteen time. Purdue overcame the injury to Isaac Haas and the scoring display of Butler’s Kelan Martin. Michigan State and Miles Bridges could not figure out the Syracuse zone. Texas A&M dominated UNC to the tune of 14 more rebounds, 8 more blocks, and 21 more points. Nevada was down 12 at half to Cincinnati and came back to win. Clemson dominated Auburn. UMBC kept it close, but their cinderella story ended. Florida State and their balanced attack beat Xavier. Finally, old man Jevon Carter lead West Virginia to 94 points and a win against in-state “rival” Marshall.

Nevada -1 for 2 units. Even sister Jean (the Loyola team chaplain) has Chicago losing in the sweet sixteen. Loyola had two buzzer beater wins while holding their opponent to 62 points in what has been a great run so far. Nevada looked good on offense against a stingy Cincy defense in the second half of that game. Nevada has been down double digits in both their wins in this tournament and I just feel if they get up in this one, they will stay up. Nevada is the better team.. sorry sister Jean.

Texas A&M +3 for 4 units. The transitive property does not work in sports so it may not matter that UNC dominated Michigan early in the year and then Texas A&M dominated UNC. I think it does matter though because of the matchups. Moritz Wagner will get dominated down low and could even find himself in foul trouble. I am going to bet on the better rebounding team in this one. I know Michigan is hot, but after a few days off and a trip to L.A. they can cool down. If both teams cool down, I want to bet on the team that can get easy buckets in the paint.

Kentucky -5 for 1 unit. The public is on this heavy too, which worries me. Kentucky has an advantage in the paint and at guarding the 3 point shot. Dean Wade would help KSU, but I do not think it matters too much if he plays. I like Kentucky in this one, but the weird line and the public being on them makes this a low unit play. Also, I have a 3 unit bet on Kentucky making the final four at -140 so do not want to overplay Kentucky like I did in 2015.

Florida State +6 for 2 units. FSU already beat the 1 seed in this region and has an incredibly balanced team after losing NBA caliber players to the draft last season. Gonzaga is also well-balanced so this should be an exciting game. I just think 6 points is too much in what should be a close game. Gonzaga has not won by more than 6 and is shooting 57% from the line in this tournament. Gonzaga can’t play much better on offense than they did against OSU and they still only won by 6. I am taking the ACC team in this one.

Hockey March 21st

17-17-3 in Hockey up 7.52 units

Bruins ML for 3 units at -114. Bruins won they last time they played 3-1 and now Tarasenko is out for the Blues. Boston has the 3rd most points in the league and Ryan Donato looked great in his first game fresh out of Harvard. Not going to overthink this one.

Coyotes ML for 3 units at -101. Sabres have only scored 12 goals in their past 5 games. Arizona looked good in their 5-2 win over Calgary last time out. Sabres lost 4-0 to Nashville in their last game. Maybe I am putting too much stock in these teams most recent games, but Arizona has looked better over the past month. Ekman-Larsson became the sixth Swedish defenseman to ever score 100 goals in the NHL last time out. Also, the public is on the Sabres which makes me more confident in Arizona.

Ducks ML for 3 units at -108. Flames fade. Flames have given up 21 goals in their last 5 games while only scoring 9. Ducks lost the meeting earlier this year. I do not think they will lose to the Flames twice so early in the year. Ducks have won past 3 in a row, Flames have lost past 3 in a row. Think this line should be closer to -130. I know Canada is a tough place to travel to for the Ducks, but I like this spot. Flames have underachieved this season..Let’s hope that keeps happening.

 

Hockey March 20th

15-16-3 in Hockey up 5.11 units

Oilers ML at +142 for 2 units. Oilers have been calling up young players like Ty Rattie and they have actually been playing a little better. Hurricanes have given up 21 goals in their past 5 games (tied for most in the league). This game is a toss up in a lot of ways so I am taking the value.

Kings ML at +150 for 2 units. Kings have won 5 of their last 6 away games and are in better form than the Jets. Kings won the meeting last month 4-3. This should be another close game so I am taking the value here. Drew Doughty is in fine passing form with 3 assists in his last game. I know Patrik Laine is good, but I like the Kings here.

Capitals ML at -127 for 2 units. Stars have their backup goalie in and have not won an away game in a month. Stars have been one of the worst teams in the west lately, while the Caps have been one of the best teams in the East. Kuzy being out is why the line is so low, but I will take the better team on low juice.

NCAAB March 18th

15-10-1 on NCAAB in 2017 up 5.25 units

59-54-1 on NCAAB in 2018 up 8.99 units

23-19-1 on NCAA Tournament up 8.41 units

Villanova cruised. Michigan won with a buzzer beater by freshman Jordan Poole. Gonzaga got up big on Ohio State, then almost lost, then won. Texas Tech found a way to win against Florida. Duke and Kentucky looked dominant. Loyola just keeps on winning thanks to sister Jean. Kansas won thanks to Malik Newman.

Purdue -3 for 1 unit. Butler looked good in the first round against Arkansas, especially Kamar Baldwin. Purdue shot 41% from deep against CS Fullerton and that bodes well for this matchup. Isaac Haas is a great player, but I think he forced Purdue away from their guards. Purdue has another 7 foot freshman that will fill in for Haas. Purdue should be able to make enough 3s to win this game.

Syracuse – MSU over 129 for 2 units. Bucknell scored 78 points against this Michigan State defense. I think this game will be in the 60s with a good chance of going into the 70s. Both these teams have been average against the spread all year. The over for Michigan State is 8-1 in their past 9 games vs ACC teams.

Cincinnati -8 for 3 units. Cincy has a better defense, more depth, and a rebounding advantage. The balanced scoring attack of Cincy will be too much for Nevada to handle after an overtime game vs Texas. Cody and Caleb Martin will not be able to do enough against Jarron Cumberland and company.

Texas A&M +7 for 3 units. UNC has too many careless mistakes against Libscomb for my liking. A&M has two grown men bigs going against UNC’s freshmen bigs. I just think this is too many points to lay as the Aggies will have the advantage at the center position. UNC was losing to Libscomb untill the end of the first half, then they got their act together. I think UNC will win thanks to Luke Maye and Joel Berry, but this one could be closer than people think.

Clemson +1.5 for 2 units. Auburn barely beat College of Charleston after losing 3 of 4 coming into the tournament. I think this big step up in competition will be too much for Auburn to handle. Clemson has been “overachieving” all year thanks to the guard play of Gabe DeVoe, Marcquise Reed, and Shelton Mitchell.. and I think that continues here.

UMBC +11 for 2 units. They are the first 16 seed to ever get out of the first round. How could I not bet on them in the next round? Jairus Lyles looked great against Virginia and he will do everything he can to lead his team to a win. I may sprinkle a little on their moneyline too because why not?

FSU +6 for 1 unit. This will be a high scoring game. Florida State can get hot from 3 and I am banking on that to happen here. Xavier let up over 80 points to Texas Southern and I think Florida State will be able to score here. Neither one of these teams finished the season all that well, and I expect a close game here.

Marshall +13 for 4 units. A West Virginia battle takes place in San Diego California today. I do think WVU wins this game, but Jon Elmore is too good to let his team get blown out. Jevon Carter is a great player and should be able to play enough defense to pull out the win.. but not cover. Best of luck.

NCAAB March 17th

15-10-1 on NCAAB in 2017 up 5.25 units

57-47-1 on NCAAB in 2018 up 21.35 units

21-12-1 on NCAA Tournament up 20.77 units

7-3 on big unit plays (3 units or higher).

3-1 on over/unders in the tournament.

History was made by University of Maryland, Baltimore County last night. They were the first 16 seed to ever beat a 1 seed. De’Andre Hunter’s injury may have hurt UVA more than me and others realized, but give all credit to Jarius Lyles and UMBC. Kyle Guy looked like the only guy that put it all on the court for UVA. Xavier, Cincy, UNC, Purdue, and West Virginia all cruised to wins. Jon Elmore has been great all season and got a chance to show off in a win vs Wichita State. Nevada won in overtime after being down double digits. Texas A&M and their big men knocked out Providence. Kansas State and Florida State are both 9 seeds and both won relatively easily. TCU could not figure out Syracuse’s zone. There were no 12-5 upsets in this tournament, but that UMBC win was legendary. Onto the picks.

Villanova – Alabama over 148 for 1 unit. Both these teams scored over 85 points in their first round matchup. Collin Sexton should be able to get buckets again. Villanova averages 87 points on the year and gives up 61. They beat Radford in the first round 87-61. Coach Avery Johnson wishes his Alabama team did not give up 83 points a game… but they do.

Rhode Island +10 for 1 unit. Some Duke fans are happy Oklahoma lost so they do not have to face Trae Young.. I would be careful thinking like that because Rhode Island is a solid Senior laden team. Marvin Bagley III is a beast and could dominate this game, but E.C. Matthews and Rhode Island have proven they can overcome a little adversity. Duke could win this game by double digits, but I am taking the experienced Rhode Island team.

Kentucky -5 for 3 units. Davidson was a tough first round matchup for Kentucky in my opinion and they overcame it. I know Buffalo has a good offense and good guards, but I do not think they will be able to guard Kentucky down low. The Wildcats have been playing like a different team over the past 10 games. I just see Kentucky dominating in the paint on the way to a win. I do not think Buffalo will be able to attack the paint like they did against Arizona. Arizona was by far Buffalo’s best win of the season, which may just mean that that win was more on Arizona’s lack of shooting and defense than Buffalo playing really well… but they did play really well.

Tennessee -5.5 for 2 units. I just do not think Loyola-Chicago has the offense to keep up with Tennessee and their defense. I want to bet the under because of Tennessee’s great defense, but 130 is such a low number it is hard for me to pull the trigger. Tennessee also has a size advantage down low that they could take advantage of and should if their shots are not falling.

Kansas -4.5 for 3 units and Kansas -2 first half for 1 unit. Devonte’ Graham, Devonte’ Graham, Devonte’ Graham and Malik Newman. Kansas was losing to Penn and then Devonte’ Graham started dominating. I still think Kansas is not getting the love they deserve for winning their regular season title and conference tournament. They covered in the first game and I think they will cover here. Seton Hall did play some good teams tough this year like Villanova, but I think Kansas will come out firing after a slow start in their first game.

Ohio State +3.5 for 4 units. I just do not think Gonzaga is all that great this year. I like their offense, but they gave up too many easy buckets against UNCG. UNCG went 3-22 from deep against Gonzaga and they still only lost by 4. Keita Bates-Diop has been playing like one of the best players in the country all year. Gonzaga could get hot and and win this game, but they did not look good in their first round game. I know Ohio State lost to the Zags by 27 this year, but I think this game will be close.

Florida +1.5 for 3 units. I know this is an “away” game of sorts for Florida but that is shown in the line too. This will be a close game, and if one team runs away with it.. I think it will be the Gators. Florida played solid defense with 11 steals against St Bonnies and Texas Tech has not beat a team as good as Florida since they beat West Virginia way back in January.

Michigan Houston over 133 for 2 units. I think Michigan will get to 70 points in this game win or lose. Houston has a good defense only giving up 65 points a game on the season, and Michigan has an even better defense giving up only 62 points a game. These two solid defenses is why the line is “low “. Michigan is the hottest team in the tournament and Houston is going to have to score if they want to move on. Best of luck.

 

Soccer March 17th

40-31-2 in soccer up 5.64 units

Juventus ML for 6 units at -310. A lot of units, but I am confident in the Old Lady. They have won 18 of their past 19 games. Dybala and Higuain have been in fine form. SPAL gives up the third most goals in the league. Juve has not given up a goal in their past 5 league games. Juve could overlook this game with their Cup games and Champions league games coming up, but I think they are much too experienced for that.

NCAAB March 16th

15-10-1 on NCAAB in 2017 up 5.25 units

46-43 on NCAAB in 2018 up 8.84 units

10-8 on NCAA Tournament up 8.26 units

4-2 on big unit plays (3 units or higher).

Wow Arizona really lost to Buffalo. Buffalo is circling the wagons no matter what postseason it is. Collin Sexton is good. Penn thought about beating Kansas then Devonte’ Graham hit the Quakers with a nah. Gonzaga and Texas Tech survived. Duke and Tennessee looked great. Loyola hit a dagger 3 to end Miami’s season. Rhode Island beat Trae Young and his unnecessary deep 3s in overtime. The ides of March was an exciting time. Onto the next one.

Texas A&M -2 for 4 units. Texas A&M will bully Providence down low like Seton Hall did in their two games against Providence this year. The Aggies have two 6 foot ten dudes in Tyler Davis and Robert Williams. Providence has beat some good teams like Villanova this year, but the Aggies finished the season well and pose matchup problems for Providence. The friars do have more experience than the Aggies, but my prediction is that A&M’s big men will be too much for Providence to handle.

Purdue -20 for 1 unit. The CS Fullerton Titans are an impressive 18-9 against the spread on the season, while Purdue is just 15-17-1 ATS. Purdue did not look great in their last game when they lost to Michigan by 9. CS Fullerton has been blown out by Southern California and Saint Mary’s this year, which is why I like Purdue to cover here. It is is also a long way to travel for CS Fullerton. The Titans do not really have any big men that can compete with Purdue’s size. The Boilermakers usually underperform in this tournament, maybe this is the year that changes.

Marshall +12 for 3 units. Marshall has ended a long tournament drought. They lost by 4 at Xavier this season. Marshall has a great player in Jon Elmore, he is fun to watch. The Thundering Herd are 12th in the nation in scoring, putting up over 83 points a game. Marshall has won their last 4 games. Wichita State has lost 2 of their last 3 games. Marshall is a solid 20-11 against the spread this year while the Shockers are only 12-18. Take the underdog here.

Cincinnati -14 for 2 units. Cincinnati is a balanced team that plays great defense. I think they cruise to a win here. Georgia State is 126th in the country in points scored a game, which is why I do not think they have the offense to compete with the Bearcats.

North Carolina -19.5 for 3 units. The Libscomb Bisons have a tough draw here against the defending national champs. Luke Maye, Joel Berry, and Theo Pinson are back after back 2 back final fours. Libscomb lost to the only other high seed they played this season (Purdue) by 32. The Bisons have a good offense, but one of the worst defenses in this tournament. North Carolina also gets Cam Johnson back. I thought this line would be 24 or more so I am taking what I perceive as value.

Arkansas +2 for 1 unit. I want to play this for more, but the line scares me as the 7 seed is the underdog. Arkansas has experience in this tournament. This line is the way it is because it is essentially a home game for Butler. I will be watching this game with interest, but I do not have a strong play.

West Virginia – Murray State over 145 for 1 unit. West Virginia has more experience, well maybe I just think that because Jevon Carter looks like he has more experience. West Virginia has been struggling to finish games and I could see this game going to free throws at the end and the over hitting.

Nevada +1 for 1 unit. Nevada finished 1st in the Mountain West in the regular season and beat some good teams on the year like Rhode Island. They are led by NC State transfer Caleb Martin. Mo Bamba is no joke for Texas and will most likely be a top 5 pick in the NBA draft this year, but as we saw with Oklahoma/Rhode Island – the team with the future lottery pick does not always win. I just think Nevada is the better team, especially since Texas does not have two guards in Andrew Jones and Eric Davis. Guards matter in March ya know.

Creighton -1 for 2 units. These two teams are so incredibly even. I am betting on the team with the best player Marcus Foster. Creighton also beat Villanova this year. Creighton has a top 10 offense in the country by points per game and I like them here.

Bucknell +15 for 1 unit. Bucknell is one of the hottest teams in the tournament and I like them to cover here. Bucknell lost by 12 to North Carolina earlier this year and I could see them losing by about that number here. Zach Thomas has been great for Bucknell all season and I expect him to show up here.

Xavier -19 for 2 units. Texas Southern is actually 7-1 against the spread this season. They started the season with like 13 straight loses so it is actually impressive that they made it into the tournament. Texas Southern lost to Kansas by 43 and Gonzaga by 28 points. I like Xavier to win by more than 20 here too.

College of Charleston +9 for 1 unit. Auburn did not finish the season strong. Charleston was led by Joe Chealey’s 32 points in their conference championship game. This is an upset alert for me. I have watched Auburn play 4 or 5 times this season and they were not overly impressive in any of them. Coach Bruce Pearl even said they have to play a lot better if they want to win a tournament game.

UVA -21 for 1 unit. UMBC will struggle to score in this game. I know UVA lost their athletic sixth man, but we will not see the drawbacks of that in this game. Take the 1 seed.

Syracuse +5 for 3 units. I am starting to really like Tyus Battle. TCU lost their last two games heading into the tournament and Syracuse has momentum beating Arizona State in the first four. TCU has not played a zone all season that I can remember and making 3s in a neutral site is not always easy. The tongue-in-cheek Mark Titus theory of the winning team has to hit their shots applies in this one. If TCU is making their 3s they will cover, if not Cuse may win outright.

FSU -1 for 2 units. FSU lost a lot of talent from last year’s team, but I believe they have the better coach and team in this one. Michael Porter is back for Missouri, but I do not know if that really helps them that much. He did not look great in his most recent game, although you could see the potential. Missouri only scored 60 points against Georgia, I think FSU’s well balanced offense and defense will prevail.

Clemson – New Mexico State over 133 for 2 units. The line for this game (-5) is a trap line so I am staying away from that. This could be the classic 12-5 upset. Clemson can play defense and shoot the 3, so I could see them going far… or losing this game. 4 of the past 5 games have gone over 133 for both teams (if you exclude the UVA game). If this is a close game at the end, I could see the free-throw-end-of-game-fouling sending this one over. Best of luck.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hockey March 15th

15-15-3 in Hockey up 7.11 units

Finland – SM Liiga

SaiPa ML +120 for 2 units. SaiPa won the first game 4-2 and I expect more of the same here. The American David Goodwin leads a strong 3rd line for SaiPa (he had two goals last game) and I expect him and that rotation to be the difference in this game. The Pelicans have also lost 8 of their last 10 games.