NCAAB December 19th

12-4 in NCAAB up 18.12 units

 

Stephen F. Austin +15 for 2 units. Stephen F. Austin has 3 players averaging over 15 points a game led by Kevon Harris. Missouri has been surprisingly good this year without their star recruit. Missouri can get hot from 3, which is most likely why this line is so high. I do not think Vegas and the public realize how good this Stephen F. Austin program is. They just beat LSU and I think they can keep this one close.

Georgia Tech +4.5 for 2 units. Georgia did not look great in this last game out losing to UMASS by 10. GT looks to be playing better and they are one of the better defenses Georgia will have played all season. Georgia is 2-4 against the spread this season and I see that going to 2-5. Josh Okogie coming back for GT is another reason I like GT in this game.

Alabama -7 for 2 units. What some expert capping? Collin Sexton.

There are a few more games I would like to play, but the lines are not open at all 3 of my books so stay tuned for what could be more.

Advertisements

NBA December 19th

13-9-1 in NBA up 7.86 units

 

Cavaliers -2 for 2 units at -103. Bucks have lost 3 in a row and now the Cavs come to town. Matthew Dellavedova is still out for the Bucks in this game against his old team. Lebron James has been playing like… well like Lebron James. He has 3 straight triple doubles and he will want to prove that he is still better than the up and comer Giannis. No Snell, Delly, and Teletovic hurts the Bucks spacing and 3-point shooting, which they will need against the Eastern Conference Champions. Cavs win the game and win the season series as a result. Look for Lebron to get his assists up tonight and Love to have a good game with Giannis most likely guarding Lebron.

NCAAB December 18th

11-4 in NCAAB up 16.19 units

 

Valpo +2 for 2 units is the play tonight. It seems that hate for Valpo has gone too far with regards to their 3 game losing skid (Ball state, Purdue, and Northwestern). They should still be favored against a team that has one win against division 1 opponents. I watched the Valpo Northwestern game because I was on Northwestern. Northwestern smacked them, but Valpo should play better against a defensively challenged Santa Clara team.

NBA December 18th

10-8-1 in NBA up 5.34 units

 

Celtics -2 for 3 units. No Marcus Morris for the Celtics. Irving is shooting 47.5% from 3 over the past 5 games. Celtics are 12-4 on the road this year. Both these teams have great records against the spread this year. Pacers do not have the defense to deal with the Celtics and it seems this line should be a little higher the more I crunch the numbers. Pacers are 10-6 at home after losing their last two games at home. Celtics beat them by 10 earlier in the year in Indy. Pacers have been playing better but the Celtics are still playing a level above the Pacers.

 

Knicks +7 for 3 units at -120. Hornets have only beaten two teams in December by 7 or more (Magic and Thunder). This play is dependent on Porzingis playing. Hornets do not have anybody that can guard the Latvian, and this was shown in the first meeting between these two teams when Kristaps took over.

 

Nuggets +6 for 3 units. Nuggets are not great on the road and the Thunder are better at home, but I still like the Nuggets and the points here. Both of these teams have been inconsistent on the season, although the Thunder have been playing better as of late. No Steven Adams hurts the Thunder in this one and Jokic has his way in the paint. Take the team with the better record getting points.

 

Warriors ML Rockets ML Parlay Risk 4 units to win 2.6 units – Two best teams in the league against two below average teams here. Do not overthink.

EVERY BOWL GAME PREDICTION

43 plays total. All in Bold. Best of luck.

 

Celebration Bowl – Grambling vs North Carolina A&T

North Carolina A&T -6.5 is the play here. They have MEAC player of the year in Lamar Raynard. The dude is a 6 foot 4 beast. He set many records for A&T this year and almost made them forget they do not have Tarik Cohen anymore. Raynard tweeted “Always be humble” recently, and maybe he was just listening to Kendrick Lamar’s song, but I like where his head is at. Grambling won last year’s game, so there is a bit of a revenge factor here for A&T. Grambling has played two games since A&T, which is a little weird and can go either way when it comes to performance on the field. Take the team with the best player on the field.

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl – North Texas vs Troy 

North Texas +7 is the play here. All the public is on Troy and the line has actually gone down. Some sharps are betting North Texas. North Texas has the better QB in Mason Fine, but he is turnover prone. Troy has a great running back and North Texas does not have the best run defense giving up over 200 yards a game. North Texas is missing their best receiver due to an ankle injury as well. If North Texas can even stop the run a little I think they will have enough big plays with their star QB to keep this one close.

AutoNation Cure Bowl – Georgia State vs Western Kentucky

Western Kentucky -6.5 is the play here. The public is on Georgia State, but the line keeps going up for Western Kentucky. The Hilltoppers of Western Kentucky finished the season stronger the Georgia State did against the spread. Western Kentucky does not have the high flying offense of years past, but they are still averaging about 28 points a game. Georgia State can’t run the ball and their offense is one-dimensional. Georgia State fans will be mad at me for saying this, but I am not sure they even deserve to be playing in this game. I know FIU smacked the Hilltoppers in their last game, but it was close at halftime before they let it get away. Mike White plays good mistake free football for Western Kentucky and I like them in this spot.

Las Vegas Bowl – No. 25 Boise State vs Oregon

Oregon -7 is the play here. LeGarrette Blount made this rivalry more famous than it already was. That sucker punch is still pretty awesome if you are not Byron Hout (the guy he punched). I like Oregon here, playing for a new coach and I think they are just a better team. Oregon has a top 10 rushing offense that Boise State will not be able to stop. Boise State has lost to every “good” team they have faced this year except for SDSU (Virginia, Washington State, and Fresno State). Oregon is a good team, how’s that for expert analysis. Leighton Vander Esch is a linebacking beast for Boise, but he will not be enough against Oregon. I like the over as well at 61.

GILDAN New Mexico Bowl – Colorado State vs Marshall 

Colorado State -5 is the play here. This game’s spread is in the notorious “Vegas Zone” and I am not sure that Vegas knows who will win this game. The public is all over Marshall, which makes me like this play even more. Both teams are 7-5 and struggled to finish the season. Colorado State has a great offense led by Nick Stevens and Micael Gallup. If the Bears Lions game doesn’t get you aroused, then switch over to this game for Gallup. The senior wide out has easily over 1,000 yards on the season and may find an NFL roster one day. Marshall does have a great defense, but I do not think they will be able to score enough to keep up in this one. I like the over on this one too at 57.

Raycom Media Camellia Bowl – Arkansas State vs Middle Tennessee 

Middle Tennessee +3.5 is the play here. Middle Tennessee has not had a bowl game this close to home in years and their coach, Rick Stockstill, reportedly spent some grands on tickets to encourage his fans to go. Middle Tennessee beat Syracuse (Clemson didn’t do that!) and just dominated an average ODU team. Arkansas State does sling the pigskin a lot, but Middle Tennessee has a good passing defense allowing just over 212 yards a game through the air. This will be a high scoring affair so the over may interest some of you.

Cheribundi Tart Cherry Boca Raton Bowl – Akron vs Florida Atlantic 

Florida Atlantic -22 is the play here. I would normally not take a line this high, but Lane Kiffin. I honestly believe Kiffin is not happy unless his teams covers. Good teams win, but great teams cover and Kiffin knows this. Also, this is a home game for FAU. FAU has an outstanding running back in Devin Singletary. He should run all over the Akron defense, which gives up almost 200 rushing yards a game. Singletary has 1,200 more rushing yards on the season than Akron’s leading rusher. Akron got blown out by Toledo and I expect more of the same here. I like the over in this one too.

DXL Frisco Bowl – Louisiana Tech vs SMU

SMU -5 is the play here. Courtland Sutton is a great receiver who had over 1,000 yards this season for SMU. His teammate, Trey Quinn, had over 1,150 yards on the season. They are the only duo in the FBS to do that this year. I like the fact that SMU has a new coach for this game too, Sonny Dykes can add some plays that will make SMU tough to scout. LA Tech underperformed all season and I think this continues here.

Bad Boy Mowers Gasparilla Bowl – FIU vs Temple

FIU +7 is the play here. This will be a close game the more and more I look at it. Temple has beat some good team this year like Navy, but I like FIU and coach Butch Davis. Who might have the most exciting coaching history in Florida outside of Lane Kiffin. FIU leads the nation in red zone scoring with 39-40 trips resulting in points. I like the consistency of FIU and think they will cover. Temple does have a good defense and a great safety in Delvon Randall, but I do not think they can score the necessary points to run away with this one.

Bahamas Bowl – Ohio vs UAB

UAB +7.5 is the play here. This game is in the Bahamas, which always throws a little wrench into the betting angle. Ohio struggled to close out the season and UAB played well all year long. It is wild to think their program was disbanded just a few years ago. UAB is 5-0 against the spread vs teams with winning records this season. Ohio has a lot of injuries including their running back. I am going to take the healthier, hotter team here.

 

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl – Central Michigan vs Wyoming 

Central Michigan +0 is the play here. Yes Wyoming has Josh Allen who NFL scouts like, but Central Michigan just has the better team. Also, Josh Allen may sit this one out like McCaffrey and Fournette did last year as he is suffering from a minor injury. Central Michigan finished the season on a winning streak and Wyoming struggled to finish the season. Neither team has won a bowl game the past few years, so both will want to win it. Central Michigan’s offense has looked a lot better over the past 4 games than it did all year and I expect that to carry over.

 

Birmingham Bowl – Texas Tech vs USF

USF -2.5 is the play. USF has been great all year and I think they can do just enough to stop Texas Tech and their spread offense. The public is on USF, most likely because of Quinton Flowers. Texas Tech should not be in a bowl game at all and I think they lose this one by double digits. USF almost beat a great UCF team this year and I think they come out firing in this one.

 

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl – Army vs San Diego State

San Diego State -6.5 is the play here. SDSU is just the better team. The have the best rusher in the country, according to yards, in Rashaad Penny. Funnily enough, Army has the best rushing attack in the country according to yards. Arizona State, Stanford, and Northern Illinois. SDSU finished the season stronger than Army finished their season and I like this matchup for SDSU.

 

Dollar General Bowl – Appalachian State vs Toledo

Toledo -7 is the play. Great players use these bowl games as a chance to shine for these “mid-major” schools a lot of the time. Logan Woodside is a guy who should grab this opportunity to raise his NFL draft stock. Toledo lost to App State last year in a bowl game and if Woodside is as good as I think he is, he will not let that happen again. I just think Toledo is the better team and I have watched a far amount of both these teams games this year.

 

Hawaii Bowl – Fresno State vs Houston 

Houston -2.5 is the play here. All the money is on Fresno State, but the line keeps going up for Houston. Something is fishy about that. Houston has the best player on the field in defense end Ed Oliver. We have seen defensive ends dominate bowl games (Solomon Thomas in the 2016 Sun Bowl vs UNC and Jadeveon Clowney in the 2013 Outback Bowl vs Michigan) and I think that will happen here.

 

Zaxby’s Heart of Dallas Bowl – Utah vs West Virginia 

Utah -7 is the play with no Will Grier for WVU. Utah had a below average season for their standards, but they can finish strongly and go into the off season on a high with this win. WVU would not be in a bowl game if they did not have Grier all year and they are winless since he broker his finger vs Texas.

 

Quick Lane Bowl – Duke vs Northern Illinois

Northern Illinois +6 is the play here. This line opened up at Duke -3 and I may have taken Duke there, but it has gotten too high. My defensive end in bowl games dominance theory may show up here too with the outstanding Sutton Smith. Duke had 6 straight losses this year and barely beat a pitiful UNC team. I do not think they are good enough to be favored by 6 against a good Northern Illinois team.

 

Cactus Bowl – Kansas State vs UCLA

Kansas State -2 is the play. This is another scenario in which one team is better, but the other team has a great quarterback. Chosen Rosen could blow this game up, but what is gambling without a little risk? Kansas State finished the season strong and should be able to control this game on the ground. UCLA has been up and down all season. KSU’s win against Oklahoma State gives me the confidence in this pick.

 

Walk-On’s Independence Bowl – Florida State vs Southern Miss

FSU -15 is the play in this one. Southern Miss lost by 14 to Tennessee and I think FSU is a similar team. Cam Akers has been great for FSU and I like that they are 2-0 under their interim coach. The way Jimbo left is weird and I think his players lost interest in playing for him this season. Southern Miss has not beaten FSU since they had Brett Favre in 1989 and it will not happen here. Feel free to throw FSU money line into some parlays too.

 

New Era Pinstripe Bowl – Boston College vs Iowa

Boston College +3 is the play here. Boston College gave Clemson all they could handle in the first half of their game and if they play like that, they will win this game. BC beat Louisville and FSU handily this year. Boston College is just the better team and it is weird to me they are not favored in this one. Iowa also has a poor postseason history lately.

 

Foster Farms Bowl – Arizona vs Purdue

Arizona -4 is my play here. If Khalil Tate gets hot in this game for Arizona they will cruise to a win. Purdue has been a lot better this year than years past, but it will not be enough for them to win a bowl game. This is a good offense vs good defense and bad offense vs good defense type game. I’ll take the good offense.

 

Academy Sports + Outdoors Texas Bowl – Missouri vs Texas

Missouri -3 is the play here. Missouri finished the season as well as any team in the country and Texas barely snuck into a bowl game. Drew Lock, the quarterback for Mizzou, is the one of the best Qbs in the country and I think he will take over this game. Missouri hates Texas and will want to win this game more than Texas will. Missouri played a tougher schedule and played it better than Texas played their easy schedule.

 

Military Bowl presented by Northrop Grumman – Navy vs Virginia 

Navy +0 is one of my biggest plays of this bowl week. UVA finished the season terribly and I just do not think they are that good as a team. Navy finished the season poorly too, but they were close in every game. Navy’s run game will be too much and will wear down UVA over the course of the game. If Navy is keeping it close or down at halftime, I would hammer Navy’s second half line. The game is also a home game for Navy.

 

Camping World Bowl – No. 19 Oklahoma State vs No. 22 Virginia Tech

Oklahoma State -4 is the play here. I think Oklahoma’s high powered offense will be too much for Virginia Tech to keep up with. Virginia Tech’s offense has looked great vs bad teams but struggled a little vs the better teams they have faced. VT has not been playing as well of late as they were earlier in the season. Take the team with the best quarterback in the game which is Oklahoma’s state Mason Rudolph.

 

Valero Alamo Bowl – No. 13 Stanford vs. No. 15 TCU

Stanford +2.5 is the play here. Stanford is not as good as their ranking suggests. TCU has a stifling defense, but they are not used to the physicality that Stanford possess. I think TCU is only favored because of where the game is being played. They had their historic comeback against Oregon here down 31-0 when they came back to win in triple overtime. Bryce Love, Bryce Love, and Bryce Love.

 

San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl – No. 18 Washington State vs. No. 16 Michigan State 

Michigan State -2.5 is the play. Washington State does have a great quarterback in Luke Falk who has been fun to watch all year. MSU will want to get Mark Dantonio is 100th victory with the program and end the season strongly after going 3-9 last year. I just think Michigan State played a tougher schedule and have a better team outside of the QB.

 

Belk Bowl – Texas A&M vs Wake Forest 

Wake Forest -3 is the play here. This one is simple, Wake Forest has the better quarterback and the better coach.

 

Hyundai Sun Bowl – Arizona State vs North Carolina State

NC State -6 is the play here. Samuels is a beast of a running back for NC State. This game also follows my defense end will dominate the game theory. Bradley Chubb is a beast that worked FSU then spit in the face of the seminole in the middle of the field after the game. Not the classiest move but he is a big man that few can stop.

 

Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl – Kentucky vs. No. 21 Northwestern 

Northwestern -7 is the play in this one. Justin Jackson will be too much for Kentucky football to stop. Justin Jackson was too much for Kentucky basketball to stop in the elite eight against UNC, but I digress. Northwestern finished the season a lot stronger than Kentucky, and Kentucky is losing off the field too on the recruiting trail.

 

NOVA Home Loans Arizona Bowl – New Mexico State vs Utah State

New Mexico State +4 is the play here. New Mexico State is the better team with their solid offense and finished the season well. Utah State is just fortunate to be in this game and New Mexico State will cover and I could see them winning. New Mexico State has not been blown out in a game all year and I can’t see that happening here. Battle of the Aggies goes to New Mexico State.

 

Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic –  No. 5 Ohio State vs No. 8 USC 

USC +7.5 is the play here. That is just too many points for a team with Sam Darnold that has not lost by that much all year except for their game at Notre Dame. OSU had a good win vs Wisconsin, but I think USC is just as athletic as the Buckeyes. J.T. Barrett falls under my “You can’t be an all time great QB with a DUI” category. OSU fans will get mad at me for this, but they would have been blown out in the CFP this year just like last year if they got in. I think OSU wins this game, but they will not cover.

 

TaxSlayer Bowl – Louisville vs Mississippi State

Louisville -6 is my play here. I was winning money on Mississippi State all year until their quarterback got hurt. Mississippi State lost their coach to Florida and their QB to injury so I am taking Lamer Jackson to cover in this one in his final game as a cardinal.

 

AutoZone Liberty Bowl – Iowa State vs No. 20 Memphis 

Memphis -3 is the play here. I fell in love with Memphis receiver Anthony Miller because of his performance against USF. He played through injury and had a monster game in the loss. This is essentially a home game for Memphis and I do not think Iowa State has the defense to stop an All-American like Miller.

 

PlayStation Fiesta Bowl – No. 11 Washington vs. No. 9 Penn State 

Penn State -2 is the play in this one. I do like Washington as a team, but Penn State lost their two games by a combined 4 points. PSU was a few possessions away from playing in the CFP like Washington did last year. Saquon Barkley will most likely be a top 5 pick in next year’s NFL draft. I like Penn State to win this one in a close game. Trace impressed me for this year for Penn State. The line opened at 4 and has come down, but I still like the Nittany Lions. If Barkley does not play for Penn State and Pettis does for Washington, I would take Washington. 

 

Capital One Bowl – No. 6 Wisconsin vs. No. 10 Miami

Wisconsin -6 is the play here. I think they come out firing and are mad they did not make the playoffs. I think this season was great for Miami. Devin Hester said on the Pardon My Take podcast that he thinks this season will help Miami get the recruits they used to. Wisconsin is still a great team regardless of what happened in their championship game. Pittsburgh ran for 152 yards against the Hurricanes and I think Jonathon Taylor and Wisconsin will do much better than that.

 

Outback Bowl – Michigan vs South Carolina 

South Carolina +7.5 is the play here. This is a battle of two great defenses and two bad offenses. The South Carolina offense was so bad that they fired their offensive coordinator and their wide receiver coach midseason. I do think Michigan will win the game but there is no way I am trusting that offense against the South Carolina defense to cover. I honestly believe Michigan has had a better chance to score this year with their defense on the field. South Carolina still has the wideouts and enough athleticism to cover against a solid Michigan team.

 

Chick-fil-a Peach Bowl – No. 7 Auburn vs No. 12 UCF 

Auburn -9 is the play here. Auburn is a step up from UCF in talent this year. If the game was in Florida and not Georgia I may take the points and the undefeated team. There is the chance that Auburn comes out flat after not making the CFP, but I think they want to prove they belonged in the final 4. I’ll take a team that beat Bama for the double digit win over a team that could barely beat Memphis.

 

Citrus Bowl – No. 17 LSU vs No. 14 Notre Dame

LSU -3 is the play in this one. More people are betting Notre Dame, but the line is moving in LSU’s favor. Some reverse line movement is why I’m picking LSU. Also, I like Derrius Guice to have a big game in this one. LSU does not play sexy football, but I think they do enough against a Notre Dame team that struggled down the stretch. Notre Dame got beat handily by Stanford and Miami. I expect more of the same here from a solid LSU team that improved over the year.

 

CFP – Rose Bowl

No. 3 Georgia vs. No. 2 Oklahoma

Georgia -2 is the play here. I know Baker Mayfield is good, he completed 71% of his passes and not in the Sam Bradford (with the vikings) type of way of completing passes. Georgia has the type of team that Oklahoma could struggle with. D’Andre Swift, Nick Chubb, and Sony Michel will be too much for the above average Oklahoma defense. Georgia lost one game all year, but handily beat that one team (Auburn) to win their conference. Oklahoma’s run with Lincoln Riley ends a little earlier than they want this year.

 

CFP – Sugar Bowl

No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 1 Clemson

Alabama -2 is the play in this national championship rematch. Clemson is not the same team they were with Deshaun Watson (no duhh). Kelly Bryant has a bright future, but I think he is a year or two away from winning the big one. Jalen Hurts and Calvin Ridley will be too much for Clemson to handle. Hunter Renfrow and his bag of grapes will not be enough to beat Bama this time. Roll tide.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NCAAB December 15th

10-4 in NCAAB up 13.29 units

Creighton -35 for 3 units. Eastern Shore lost to an average Liberty team by 22 and a good Virginia Tech team by 40. Think Creighton wins this one by a score of 103 to 58. Not going to overthink a team trying to strengthen their tourney resume against a team that doesn’t score or play defense.

NBA December 15th

9-8 in NBA down .6 units

Rockets -8 for 6 units at -110. First ever 6 unit play. All the public is on the Spurs. Rockets are wet from 3 and are the league’s best team as of today. Everybody saying Pop can stop the Rockets barrage of 3 pointers and he has the answers. I love Pop, but I do not think he will be able to find the answers. Gordon got hot against the Hornets. Spurs struggled against the Mavs. Rockets at home. Everything points to a double digit Rockets win.

Wizards -9 for 3 units at -118. Reverse Line Movement. Something is fishy about this line. Wizards are beating teams at home by an average of only 4 points. Clippers have been hot so the line should be lower right? Contrarian play..

NCAAB December 14th

9-4 in NCAAB up 11.38 units

Northwestern -10 at -115 for 2 units. Their common opponent in Purdue blew out Valpo, but barely beat Northwestern. Northwestern has a better coach and just won by the largest margin in school history. Valpo is coming off a tough lose to ball state. If this game was not home for Northwestern I would stay away, but they are 5-1 at home and I like this spot.

NBA December 14th

9-7 in NBA up 1.45 units

Hawks +4 for 2 units at -108. Pistons fade. Pistons scored 84 points at home against an average Nuggets defense. Now they go on the road after losing 7 straight. I do think Drummond causes some matchup problems for the Hawks, but that is why this is not a higher unit play. Langston Galloway was the Pistons leading scorer last game. If Langston Galloway is your leading scorer, you’re gonna have a bad time. The Hawks have lost their two most recent games but they covered and that is all we really care about here. The public is also on the Pistons which gives me more confidence in my pick. Best of luck.

NBA December 13th

Rockets -11.5 at -103 for 4 units. Hornets are 2-11 on the road. MKG gave Westbrook and the Thunder problems with his defense, but I think the Rockets pose a bigger matchup problem. Rockets scored over 120 points again (6th time this season) against the Pelicans in a come from behind victory. Hornets can not make the necessary 3s to keep up in this one. Hornets are usually great at defense, but this year they are not as good on that end of the floor.