NBA January 24th

18-16-1 on NBA in 2017 up 7.22 units

14-13 on NBA in 2018 down 2.38 units

Hornets -1 for 8 units. Max play here. Howard is a good counter to the Pelican bigs. Hornets have a .500 record at home. Pelicans have .500 record on the road. Pelicans won a double overtime game against the Bulls last time out. Kemba said all he cares about his winning after the recent trade rumors. Michael Jordan said he would only trade Kemba for an all-star (prolly won’t happen). Pelicans only shot 41% in their win against the Bulls and the Hornets defense has been better. Jeremy Lamb has been great for the Hornets this season. Pelicans do not match up well with Hornets and I love this spot. Pelicans are 1-3-1 in their last 5 games in the state of North Carolina.

Rockets ML at -275 for 8 units. Two max plays in one day after not having any for a long while. Line will get more juicy so get it now. Mavs are 10-15 at home while Rockets are 15-6 away. People are calling this a trap game and I just do not buy that. Houston has not lost a game when Capela, Harden, and Paul all play (18-0).

 

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Soccer January 24th

Took a little break from the sports gambling but I am back. Was busy with more important things over the past week, but am back with some winners now.

25-13-1 in soccer up 3.74 units

Lazio ML for 2 units at -185. Lazio has been great at home lately and look to be regaining the solid form they had to start this season. Would play this for more, but it seems Immobile will miss this game. Udinese are unbeaten in their last 7 games and have been playing well on the road in their last 5 games. Given those stats, this line seems a little high. A lot of people will be zigging for the underdog value that is Udinese in this one, but I am going to zag towards the favorite. Udinese have played great since their coaching change, but have not scored in their last 5 vs Lazio.

Chelsea +0.5 for 3 units at -200. I think Chelsea will play a lot better than they did in the first leg. Hazard and Willian should feature and cause problems like they did over this past weekend. Chelsea had 21 goal attempts to 8 for Arsenal in their last meeting.

Chelsea ML for 1 unit at +162. Do not trust Arsenal’s defense to keep Chelsea from scoring for 180 minutes (already held them for 90 in their last game). Both these teams got out of their goal slumps against weak competition over the weekend. Conte’s squad has only lost 1 in their last 8 games at Arsenal.

Quote of the Day 1/23/2018

Goes to Andre Drummond who got snubbed as an all-star in the East. Drummond tweeted out “Guess I gotta start doing back flips after every point I score to get attention around here! Lmao on to the next.” 

Maybe Andre should beat Joel Embiid once this season if he wants to make an all-star team. In all seriousness though, he should have made it over Horford who averages 13/7.8/5 to Drummond’s 14/15/4. Or even made it over Wall who has hardly tried this season as evidenced by this stat from Zach Lowe “He has spent 76.57 percent of floor time either standing still or walking, the largest such share among all rotation players.” Guess who is second in that stat? Dirk Nowitzki. Dirk is more than a decade older and just stands there and shoots 3s and he is second in the league in standing still behind John Wall!!!! Wall hardly plays defense (even in crunch time: for example against the Grizzlies when he just let Tyreke Evans shoot 3s to bring Memphis back into the game). John Wall’s team is also underperforming, while the Pistons (performing about where expected) would be as bad as the Detroit’s NFL team if they did not have Andre Drummond.

At least Drummond will overtake Lillard for the all-star snub meme for a year or more.

Snooker January 24th

1-0 in snooker up 2.23 units

Judd Trump ML at -240 for 2.5 units. Trump does not lose to Woollaston. Trump has only lost 2 games in group 5. He has not lost a match. Trump has won 2 of the last 3 matches against Woollaston by a score of 5-0 and I think he will want to win this one to secure his spot. Woollaston is second in group 5 behind Trump, so Trump can’t take this match lightly. Best of luck. Sorry for the heavy juice.

NBA January 18th

18-16-1 on NBA in 2017 up 7.22 units

14-12 on NBA in 2018 down .38 units

Celtics -4 for 2 units. 76ers blew a 20 point lead last time these teams met. That game was in London, this game is in Boston. Celtics are too good at defense for this young 76ers team. 76ers have the 23rd ranked defense. It would help if the Celtics have Horford back against the league’s best rebounding team. Jaylen Brown just keeps getting better and better and he is averaging 14.1 points and 5.7 rebounds. Kyrie is still great, he is starting to look smarter and smarter everyday for leaving the Cavs and their turmoil a year early. Celtics are a good road team because defense travels, they should cover comfortably in this one at home. Kyrie may not play, and if that happens I may bet 76ers at halftime. I still like Celtics defense enough to play this.

 

NCAAB January 18th

15-10-1 on NCAAB in 2017 up 5.25 units

16-10 on NCAAB in 2018 up 15.72

Virginia -8 for 3 units. UVA allows only 53 points a game (that is first in college basketball). That defense will be too much for this surging Georgia Tech team to handle. I usually do not like betting road teams with a big spread, but defense travels well. Georgia Tech has not scored 70 points in a conference game, it won’t happen here. Kyle Guy and Devon Hall will lead UVA to victory.

Michigan -4 for 2 units. Have not lost a bet on Michigan all year (bet them only twice). Michigan will be too much defense for Nebraska like UVA will be for Georgia Tech. Nebraska and Michigan have great records against the spread this year. Michigan knows they have to come out and play better than the first half against Maryland if they want to win. Michigan has covered in their last 4 road games and they are the better team. Not going to overthink this one.

Quote of the Day 1/17/2018

Goes to Gregg Popovich when he was asked about the rise in player to player altercations.

“Oh, you mean those typical NBA fights where they go, ‘Let me at him. I would’ve kicked his ass. Somebody hold me back.’ […] The NBA fights are the silliest things I’ve ever seen in my life. Except there was that one in the stands a few years ago, that one was ugly.”

He is referring to the Malice at the Palace which should/will always be the D-Day of Nba fighting. If you throw a drink at Ron Artest he will look for you and he will find you. Pop’s timeline is a little off as the fight he is referring to happened well over a decade ago, but we will let that slide. Pop also says namby-pamby in the discussion. It is a great day when Popovich says namby-pamby.

 

Snooker January 16th

Ronnie O’ Sullivan for 8 units at -358.

Ronnie is a snooker prodigy who had his first maximum break at the age of 15. He only loses when his mind is not right, or the prize money is not high enough for him. He won the Masters last year and will want to do it again here. Normally I do not bet this high of juice, but he is that good. He has played Fu over 10 times and never lost.

Also, bet him to win the whole tournament at +250 for 1 unit. Best of luck.

Soccer January 16th

24-13-1 up 1.98 units 

West Ham ML for 3 units at -170. West Ham can not play worse than they did last time out vs Shrewsbury when they tied. West Ham will field a stronger squad because they know a Shrewsbury away goal will make it difficult to move on. The Hammers looked good against Huddersfield over the weekend and I expect that to carry over. If Arnautovic or Chicharito plays I would bet over 2.5 goals at +117 for 1 unit as well. 

 

NCAAB January 16th

15-10-1 on NCAAB in 2017 up 5.25 units

15-9 on NCAAB in 2018 up 16.77 units

Kentucky -2 for 2 units. This is a sort of Super Bowl for the Gamecock’s in their basketball season. The Wildcats will get South Carolina’s best effort in Columbia. Kentucky is 8-9 against the spread on the year, and I think they get to .500 here. South Carolina is 0-4 against the spread in their last 4 following a game in which they won. I think this young Kentucky team will start coming together. The way they covered in a close game vs Vandy will help them here. Kevin Knox could have a breakout game here, he has not had more than 17 points in conference play.

Toledo +1 for 1 unit. Toledo is just better than Ohio. They have won their last 3 and Ohio has lost their last two. Toledo beat a Central Michigan team by 11 that Ohio lost to by 25. The transitive property usually does not work in sports gambling, but that is a stark point differential. Take the hotter team.