NCAAB January 13th

15-10-1 on NCAAB in 2017 up 5.25 units

10-7 on NCAAB in 2018 up 10.07 units

Florida State -6 for 3 units. Syracuse have lost their last 3, while Florida State have lost their last 2. Florida State has the far better offense than Syracuse and they are at home. FSU had won 28 at home in a row before their most recent loss. I expect another win streak to start up here. Terance “one R” Mann is a beast and I expect FSU to shoot a lot better than they did against Louisville. Syracuse has not lost by more than 5 to FSU in their last two trips to Tallahassee. This line seems a little weird so I am going to take the favorite.

WVU +5 for 3 units. Texas Tech and West Virginia are fairly evenly matched teams, so I am taking the points here. Jevon Carter has been great for WVU this year and they have won 15 games in a row. Texas Tech shot awfully in their last game against an Oklahoma team that WVU beat. The Red Raiders will most likely shoot better now that they are back at home, but I still do not trust them.

Kentucky -3 for 3 units. Kentucky leads Vanderbilt in literally every major statistical category. Vanderbilt will have to make a good amount of 3s to cover this line. I would not bet on that to happen. Vandy has lost their last two games by a combined 19 points and Kentucky just beat a good Texas A&M team. Kentucky’s flight got delayed, but Vandy was nice enough to let Kentucky practice in their quirky former opera house of an arena. This will help Kentucky with their young team. Did you know John Calipari has a young team? Home court and travel inconvenience are against Kentucky, but I still like them here.

Gonzaga -12 for 3 units. If you have read my Gonzaga takes in the past, you know what I am going to say here. They just have a far better offense than these other teams in the conference. Gonzaga is 9-5-1 against the spread this season, and I may just bet them till they lose me money.

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Soccer January 13th

17-6-1 in Soccer up 9.07 units

Hertha Berlin +0.5 at -125 for 4 units. I think this line is inflated for Stuttgart because they just signed a player that helped win the league a decade ago in Mario Gomez. Any striker needs build up play to be dominate though, and Stuttgart has not been doing that well. Stuttgart have the second worst goal scoring record in the Bundesliga. Hertha won this matchup 2-0 earlier in the season and seem to tie a lot of their away games this season. Stuttgart could start finding the net in the new year, but I doubt it happens here.

Brighton & Hove Albion +0.5 at -124 for 3 units. West Brom has not won a game in the league since August! If they win one here it will because I am betting it.. nothing else. All jokes aside, West Brom could still be without Chadli, Dawson, Johny Evans, Kieran Gibbs, and James Morrison. Yes Brighton only has 3 goals in their last 5 league games, but West Brom only has 4 and has given up twice as many goals in that same span. Glenn Murray has been in decent goal scoring form this season in the league and if he can get a goal this bet will win. He came on the 81st minute for Brighton in their league cup game against Crystal Palace and scored to win the game. West Brom fade.

Girona ML at -130 for 2 units.

Girona -1 +134 for 2 units. Las Palmas gives up over 2 goals a game. They have had about 4 coaches this year (not an exaggeration). Girona has been over-performing by my estimation this year but I like this favorable draw to start this new year. Las Palmas has not scored in their last 3 away games and they have lost over 75% of their away games this year. Christian Stuani has 9 goals on the year for Girona, which is 5 more than anybody on Real Madrid. Las Palmas fade, they will not be able to figure out their backline in time to secure points in this game. Girona likes to cross the ball, which I normally don’t like, but against a poor defense like this it should work. 2-0 win for Girona is my prediction.

Eibar +0.5 at -115 for 1 units. No Diego Costa, Gabi, or Savic for Madrid. Atletico have struggled against crosses this year and that is one of Eibar’s strengths. Eibar has been dominate at home recently. Eibar actually has the same amount of points in their last 5 games as Barcelona at 13 points. Atletico is only a point behind however. If this game was in Madrid I would stay away, but I like Eibar to keep their momentum going at home.

Quote of the Day 1/12/2018

“Fuck you bitch. You motherfucker”

What a fan said to Klay Thompson when he got fouled and slid out of bounds near the fan. The ref, Lauren Holtkamp, saw it happening and did a great job taking control of the situation and calling security. The fan was quickly ejected from the venue.  Thompson called the man’s behavior “unnecessary”. David West told the fan to “watch yo mouth” which made me watch my mouth. Source and Alternate Source

Still not as good as the Philly area Doctor giving Westbrook the double middle fingers, but I’ll settle. Westbrook with the who’s mans

NCAAB January 12th

15-10-1 on NCAAB in 2017 up 5.25 units

10-6 on NCAAB in 2018 up 13.07 units

3-0 yesterday

Virginia Commonwealth University +3 for 3 units. This line is overrating how bad VCU is on the road. Yes they are a lot better at home, but they are still a better team than Dayton. Dayton lost to a Duquesne team that VCU just beat, and earlier in the year, Dayton lost to an Old Dominion team that VCU beat. VCU averages 6.6 more rebounds a game and have played against bigger teams (see Mohamed Bamba for Texas). Dayton just let up over 80 points to an average offensive team in Richmond. VCU knows they have to win these road games if they want to guarantee another NCAA tourney bid. Take the better team and the points.

 

Soccer January 12th

13-6-1 in soccer up 1.72 units

Bayern Munich +0 at -215 for 4 units.

Bayern Munich ML at -105 for 2 units. Munich beat Leverkusen 3-1 to start this season. Crosses were the death of Leverkusen in that game, and I expect more of the same here. Lewandowski will want to get his 2018 off to a good start. The last two times Munich has played at Leverkusen they were 0-0 draws. I do not expect to see that here as both these teams have 21 goals in their last 10 league games. Leverkusen have one of the top assist men in Bundesliga with the Jamaican international Leon Bailey. Kevin Volland is also the highest scoring German international in the league. Even with these two attacking players, I do not see Leverkusen being able to control the midfield or defend well enough to secure any points in this game. Neuer being out is the only thing stopping me from making a max play here.

Getafe ML at -130 for 3 units. Malaga fade. Malaga only has two goals in their last 5 league games and has given up the third most goals in La Liga on the season. Getafe has not lost a game at home since October. Malaga been defeated in almost 90% of the games they have played on the road this season. This line should be closer to -200 than -100 for Getafe. Take the perceived value.

Getafe Malaga under 2.5 for 2 units at -160. Do not think Malaga will score against a well coached Getafe side. If someone is feeling lucky out there, I would not mind putting a unit on the final score being either 0-0 or 1-0 for Getafe. Best of luck.

Quote of the Day 1/11/2018

Goes to Jamie Carragher who interviewed Virgil van Dijk. When people wondered why van Dijk looked so much taller than Carragher, Carragher stated “No I’m not in a hole, he’s just fucking massive.” Source

It gets better though.. Phil Neville commented on the photo of Carragher and van Dijk together with the subtle jab “U live at Liverpool’s training ground Carra?”

Carragher responded with “@philipneville18 always open arms for me here philip, unlike you at Carrington after the fuck up you & Moyes caused!!!”

For those that don’t know, Carrington is where Manchester United trains. Neville was on the coaching staff in 2013-14 when Manchester United finished 7th that season. Quite the “fuck up” for a team of United’s stature. Jamie went 0-100 real quick and put Phil in a body bag. Source

Moyes and Neville’s United tied Fulham 2-2 with 82 scoreless crosses in the match. That game was a microcosm of that season for United.

Quote of the Day 1/10/2018

Goes to Jimmy Butler when asked, “What do you think about KAT’s defense tonight on Steven Adams?” He kinda ignores the question and goes on to say..

That mother fucker is strong! Like, I’m serious. He hit me with one screen today, and I thought my life was over. Seriously. He’s like from Krypton or something. He’s strong. I’m gonna call him in here and let him set a screen on you.” Source

It doesn’t even stop there.. During Karl-Anthony Towns’s interview, KAT throws some shade at Jimmy Butler’s music selection and Jimmy responds with “I just had to chase Russ around and get hit by Steven Adams. I can listen to whatever fuckin music I want.” Source

NCAAB January 11th

15-10-1 on NCAAB in 2017 up 5.25 units

7-6 on NCAAB in 2018 up 4.38 units

Gonzaga -30 for 3 units. Gonzaga beat a team by 49 that Portland just lost to in SCU. Gonzaga has won both of their home conference games by more than 30. They have the far superior offense to Portland. Portland is only 6-6 against the spread on the year and I expect that to go to 6-7 after this game in Spokane.

Oregon State +15 for 3 units. Arizona is far too inconsistent to be favored by this much against an improving Oregon State team. The Arizona Wildcats just lost to a Colorado team that Oregon State beat handily. Some are saying that Arizona will come out with an attitude to avenge that loss, but it is just as likely that they still will not hit their shots. Both these teams have been bad against the spread all year. This Arizona team has been overrated all year, let us see if we can make some money on this inflated perception. Sean Miller called his team “a work in progress” a few days ago. Look for Oregon State to come in and try and pull off an upset.

Ohio State -5 for 3 units. Ohio State just smacked their rival Michigan State. Ohio State does not have a bad loss on the season and Keita Bates-Diop is becoming a Big 10 player of the year candidate. Not only are the Buckeyes clicking, but Maryland has not won a road game in regulation all year (beat Illinois in overtime). Maryland will not be able to put up the points to keep up with OSU as the game goes along. Take the hot team at home.

 

Soccer January 11th

12-5-1 in soccer up 5.62 units

Celta Vigo +2.25 at even money for 5 units. Let’s keep riding Celta Vigo in this Copa del Ray game. Celta tied the first leg but Messi did not play and it was away from Barcelona. I could see this game ending 3-1 for Barcelona if they play their full squad. If Messi does not start I would hammer this line. If you have been reading me, you know I love Celta’s squad – from Sisto to Wass to Aspas, they are all great players. I expect this to be an exciting game. Celta will leave some holes open at the back, but I think they can score enough that those holes do not come back to haunt us. Celta Vigo have not lost a game by more than two since they lost to Real Madrid last May. We all know how good Real Madrid was last year. I like this spot.

Sevilla ML at -290 for 3 units. Sevilla is back home after securing a 2-0 victory in Cadiz. Nolito had a cheeky sizzler of a goal to get Sevilla off to a hot start. This Sevilla team will want to come out firing after losing to crosstown rival Real Betis in their last home game. Sevilla had a long run of being unbeaten at home and I think that will start back up with this game. Best of luck.

NCAAB January 10th

15-10-1 on NCAAB in 2017 up 5.25 units

5-6 on NCAAB in 2018 down 4.32 units

LSU +9.5 for 5 units. LSU just beat a good Texas A&M team on the road and barely lost to Kentucky. They are a great 3-point shooting team which can keep them in any game. Arkansas has been struggling and razorback fans have to be a little worried about their team. Both these teams are 3 games above .500 vs the spread. Arkansas has not beat a conference team by more than 2 and I do not see them winning this game by double digits. Look for Reath and Waters to drill some 3s to help us cover.

TCU +2 for 4 units. I think Texas is getting too much credit for being at home here. TCU is a good road team this season and beat a Baylor team that beat Texas well recently. TCU has 2 conference losses but they were to Kansas and Oklahoma. TCU’s offense will be too much for Texas to handle. Take the better team for with the extra points.