19-18-3 in Hockey up 10.27 units
Another 2-1 day while winning some units yesterday. Should have been 3-0 after Ryan Donato got the Bruins up early in his second NHL game, but the Bruins blew their lead and lost in overtime to the Blues. Ryan Donato went to class Monday at Harvard after his goal and assist Sunday. He seems to have an NHL career now so should he keep going to class? Open for debate. Now the picks.
Finland – Sm Liiga
TPS Turku ML at +131 for 2 units and TPS Turku to tie at +184 for 2 units. Turku won the first game in overtime and I expect another tight contest here. Turku has won their last 3 games on the road, which gives me the confidence to make this play. Turku has the second best record and offense in the league and has not lost a game in regular time since February 13th. Oula Palve has been averaging more than a point a game since he joined the team and began leading the second line for Turku. Eric Perrin is the highest scoring foreign player to ever play in this league and I like his experience here for Turku (Perrin won a Stanley Cup with the Lightning in 2004).
Coyotes ML at +155 for 2 units. Hurricanes have lost their past 4 home games. Carolina has given up 26 goals in their last 5 games (worst in the league). Rask and Pesce are now out for the season for Carolina. Hurricanes seem like they are tanking while Arizona seems to be winning. +155 against a team that is tanking is just too good of value to pass up.
Capitals ML at -160 for 3 units. The only team that is in worst form than the Hurricanes, is the Red Wings. The Red Wings are also tanking and now they get one of the best teams in the league. The Capitals have not been losing a lot lately, but when they do lose, it is to a playoff team. The Red Wings are not a playoff team.
Blackhawks -1.5 at +160 for 1 unit. Canucks have lost their past 4 games by 2 goals or more. Canucks have scored 4 goals in their past 5 games. Blackhawks have lost their past 4, so something has to give here. I am essentially betting on Chicago’s pride in this one. When Kane was asked about this season being a negative he said “If anything, it’s kind of humbled a lot of us in here, and it could be a good thing. Come back with a little bit more of an edge next season.” Whether that happens remains to be seen, but I like his attitude.. even though it does not mean too much for this game.
8-2 in snooker up 8.82 units
Ryan Day ML for 2 units at +121. Ryan Day opened his last match against world #1 Mark Selby with a century and never looked back. Day has won the past two tournaments he has played in and is just in better form than Mark Williams. Day went 4-5 against Williams in 2017 and he was not half as hot then as he is now. This is a “home” match for both of these Welshman, so no angle there. Day has not lost a match in almost a month and if he loses this one, he can surely blame me.
2-4 on golf in 2018 down 3.19 units
Won some units on the first day of this match play tournament so decided I’d share my golf plays for the first time since the Phoenix Open. Also, Tiger is back in case you didn’t hear.
Dell Technologies Wednesday Preview and Predictions:
Ian Poulter over Daniel Berger at -110 for 3 units. Berger did not look great on day 1 and he was my only loss on the day. Poulter is using the putter than won him and Europe the 2012 Ryder cup in what was the “Miracle in Medinah”. I like the good juju the putter brings and how much better Poulter looked than Berger on Wednesday. Also, Poulter is 24-14 in match play in his career.
Jhonattan Vegas over Rory McIlroy at +232 for 1 unit.
Adam Hadwin over Dustin Johnson at +185 for 2 units. If you are going to bet on Vegas, bet on Hadwin and vice versa. Johnson and McIlroy both looked awful on Wednesday, even though Rory picked it up over the back nine. Dustin Johnson looked terrible and shot a 9 over with plenty of bogeys. This is more about value than anything. I am betting on one of these top 10 players to continue playing poorly on Thursday.
Francesco Molinari over Luke List at -130 for 2 units. Molinari had 6 birdies on Wednesday and dominated the par 5s. I thought this line would be closer to -160 so I am taking the value here. Molinari hit 15 of 17 greens and and 12 of 13 fairways. List bent his putter and could not use it on the final holes, but he played fine.. just not good enough to be almost even odds with Francesco.
Keegan Bradley over Kiradech Aphibarnrat at +110 for 2 units. Bradley had 3 straight birdies and then an eagle on the turn and still lost to Rahm. Kiradech played well and is leading the group after 1 day. Keegan is the better golfer and at plus money. Bradley seemed to understand these greens and I think that will be the difference here.
Bubba Watson over Marc Leishman at -125 for 4 units. Watson birdied 7 of the first 9 holes. Leishman lost to late entry Suri. Marc bogeyed the first two holes and never could get back in the game. Bubba was putting like he was on easy mode in a video game Wednesday. If Watson putted like that all the time, he would have more than two majors. Bubba is setting himself up well to try and win his 3rd masters.
15-10-1 on NCAAB in 2017 up 5.25 units
63-57-2 on NCAAB in 2018 up 7.32 units
27-22-2 on NCAA Tournament up 6.74 units
Sweet Sixteen time. Purdue overcame the injury to Isaac Haas and the scoring display of Butler’s Kelan Martin. Michigan State and Miles Bridges could not figure out the Syracuse zone. Texas A&M dominated UNC to the tune of 14 more rebounds, 8 more blocks, and 21 more points. Nevada was down 12 at half to Cincinnati and came back to win. Clemson dominated Auburn. UMBC kept it close, but their cinderella story ended. Florida State and their balanced attack beat Xavier. Finally, old man Jevon Carter lead West Virginia to 94 points and a win against in-state “rival” Marshall.
Nevada -1 for 2 units. Even sister Jean (the Loyola team chaplain) has Chicago losing in the sweet sixteen. Loyola had two buzzer beater wins while holding their opponent to 62 points in what has been a great run so far. Nevada looked good on offense against a stingy Cincy defense in the second half of that game. Nevada has been down double digits in both their wins in this tournament and I just feel if they get up in this one, they will stay up. Nevada is the better team.. sorry sister Jean.
Texas A&M +3 for 4 units. The transitive property does not work in sports so it may not matter that UNC dominated Michigan early in the year and then Texas A&M dominated UNC. I think it does matter though because of the matchups. Moritz Wagner will get dominated down low and could even find himself in foul trouble. I am going to bet on the better rebounding team in this one. I know Michigan is hot, but after a few days off and a trip to L.A. they can cool down. If both teams cool down, I want to bet on the team that can get easy buckets in the paint.
Kentucky -5 for 1 unit. The public is on this heavy too, which worries me. Kentucky has an advantage in the paint and at guarding the 3 point shot. Dean Wade would help KSU, but I do not think it matters too much if he plays. I like Kentucky in this one, but the weird line and the public being on them makes this a low unit play. Also, I have a 3 unit bet on Kentucky making the final four at -140 so do not want to overplay Kentucky like I did in 2015.
Florida State +6 for 2 units. FSU already beat the 1 seed in this region and has an incredibly balanced team after losing NBA caliber players to the draft last season. Gonzaga is also well-balanced so this should be an exciting game. I just think 6 points is too much in what should be a close game. Gonzaga has not won by more than 6 and is shooting 57% from the line in this tournament. Gonzaga can’t play much better on offense than they did against OSU and they still only won by 6. I am taking the ACC team in this one.