UFC on ESPN – Ngannou/Velasquez

6-1 on UFC/MMA in 2018 up 9.90 units

9-1-1 in 2019 up 14.46 units

Renan Barao at +130 for 2 units. Going with experience.

Benito Lopez/Manny Bermudez under 1.5 rounds at +110 for 5 units. These guys are going to come out firing. They do not like each other. Strong hunch.

Paul Felder at -104 for 4 units. I love Charles Oliveira and Felder beat him. That is my main reason for this play. James Vick is long and a solid takedown artist, but so is Oliveira.

Cain Velasquez at -186 for 4 units. Cain is the man. Francis Ngannou is a beast-monster and has some advantages in this fight. If Cain can keep it tight and land his jabs he will win. Every time Cain gets a decisive win, it is with powerful punches. Francis Ngannou has never been knocked out in the UFC. This is an intriguing matchup. Ngannou has never attempted a takedown in the UFC, but he does have the reach advantage. Velasquez is the much more accurate striker.

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UFC 234: Whittaker vs. Gastelum Preview – Lando Vannata Gets Back to Winning

6-1 on UFC/MMA in 2018 up 9.90 units

6-1 in 2019 up 8.52 units

Lot of plays on heavy favorites tonight. I usually like betting underdogs with value in the UFC, but this seems like an “easy” card to read for the favorites. Not going to overthink it.

Montana De La Rosa at -243 for 3 units. The Fort Worth native, Montana De La Rosa, has won her last 3 fights all by submissions. Her opponent, Nadia “187” Kassem has only 1 UFC win in her career and it was an unanimous decision against the struggling Alex Chambers. Not saying Alex Chambers is struggling to take away from Kassem, just a fact. De La Rosa’s superior experience, ground game, and grappling get her the win.

Lando Vannata at -346 for 10 units. First of all his name is Lando. That’s a plus from the start, shoutout Donald Glover. Vannata is a purple belt in Jiu Jitsu and is trained by Greg Jackson. Jackson has trained Bones Jones, BJ Penn, Holly Holm, and many others. He’s legit. Lando’s last 4 fights have all gone the distance and he drew two and lost two of those 4 fights. He’s hungry for a win. Marcos Mariano is making his lightweight debut tonight, partly because he is Anderson Silva’s friend. ”Groovy” Vannatta is an exciting fighter and I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets performance of the night.

Vannata/Rosa under 1.5 rounds for 2 units. If Vannata wins (I think he will), it will most likely be by a TKO or submission. I expect the more experienced Vannata to take advantage of his opponent’s weaknesses early.

Robert Whittaker at -229 for 4 units. Whittaker is a Black belt in Hapkido,
a black belt in Goju-ryu Karate, and a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. Hapkido is a badass form of self defense that involves locking people’s joints. The guy is a damn savage. His nickname is “the Reaper” for Christ’s sake. Whittaker hasn’t lost a fight since February of 2014. Kelvin Gastelum does have the small Jiu-Jitsu advantage, but that is where it ends for me. Kelvin doesn’t have the length, experience, or takedown defense to keep up with Whittaker IMO. Gastelum won the Ultimate Fighter 17, but he doesn’t have much of a chance tonight.

 

UFC – Fight Night 144

6-1 on UFC/MMA in 2018 up 9.90 units

3-1 in 2019 up 1.66 units

Charles Oliveira at -119 for 5 units. Oliveira has 3 performances of the night in a row. He has the most UFC submission wins all time with 12. Jim Miller was like what’s happening to me and then rear-naked choke time. Clay Guida was like what’s happening to me and then guillotine choke time. Charles is a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu. Charles says he will fight 5 times this year. He is an animal. Oliveira deserves a top 5 fight if he wins this one against David Teymur. Oliveira’s grappling and flexibility get him the win. If you want to see Charles take someone bigger to the ground… Scroll/Look up.

Livia Souza at -217 for 3 units. Souza’s opponent came in 7 pounds overweight. The bout will proceed as scheduled though, with Frota forfeiting 40 percent of her purse to Souza. Souza called her opponent unprofessional. This is Sarah Frota’s first UFC fight. She may not have many more sadly.

Magomed Bibulatov/Rogerio Bontorin over 2.5 at -209 for 3 units. If Bibulatov can defend against Bontorin’s rear naked choke, this will go over. Bibulatov got knocked out in the first round of his last bout, but Bontorin doesn’t have the punching power. I am betting Bibulatov’s chin holds up here. Submission defense will be the key to this over and the fight for Magomed.

The Best Sports Saturday of the Year is Here

College Football Playoff, Jon Jones/Gustafsson, Premier League soccer (Salah), Serie A soccer (Ronaldo), and of course Charlotte Hornets basketball…. ARE YOU NOT ENTERTAINED? IS THIS NOT WHY YOU ARE HERE?

I’ll start with soccer because that starts about 5 hours after this will be posted…

92-77-9 on Soccer since World Cup up 11.17 units

Juventus/Napoli/Tottenham Parlay risking 3 units to win 3.77 units. Sampdoria travels to Turin to face the Italian Giants today. It is near impossible to score on Juve in Turin. Juve only have one draw in their past 12 matches. Quagliarella can score for Sampdoria, but Juve’s attacking options should overwhelm the Sampdoria defense.

Tottenham have won 12 of their past 14 league matches. Wolves lack teeth in their attack. Son is hot. Tottenham also have not drawn a game domestically in a while (all season). I could see Harry Kane making a penalty in this one.

Napoli have beat Bologna by a score of 19-3 over their past 5 matches against each other. Napoli lost last time out to Inter. Koulibaly got a red card in that game and was the target of racism. Inter has been “punished” for these acts of racism. I think the punishment should be more severe, but it is what it is. Milik, Insigne, and Mertens should be enough offense to secure the win.

52-36 on College Football this season up 35.93 units

10-7 on Bowls up 6.56 units

Florida +7 at -149 for 5 units. Michigan lost to OSU and Notre Dame this season. They beat Wisconsin, Penn State, and Michigan State. I think Florida is more like the first two than the last 3. 7 points is a lot for a game that has a “low” over/under of 51. Florida averages 426.7 yards a game on offense. Michigan averages 427.3 yards a game on offense. Florida beat LSU and Mississippi State this season. Michigan is similar to those two teams in the sense that they all like to run the ball and play defense. Rashan Gary, Devin Bush, and Karan Higdon are all out for Michigan to focus on the NFL.

Notre Dame/Clemson under 59 at -128 for 3 units. Both these teams allow less than 18 points a game. 3 of Clemson’s last 4 games have gone under this number. 4 of Notre Dame’s last 4 games have gone under this number. Trevor Lawrence is great, but I could see him struggling a little in this one. Ian Book will be one of the best Qbs Clemson has faced all year. This game could be closer than people think, but it’ll be tough for either team to break 30/35 points.

Alabama/Oklahoma over 77 at -120 for 3 units. I’m not going to bet the under with Kyler vs Tua. Vegas is daring us to take the over. You have to.

6-1 on UFC/MMA in 2018 up 9.90 units

Montel Jackson at -165 for 2 units. Even though Jackson missed weight by 2 pounds and is fined 20% of his purse, I like him to beat Brian Kelleher. Jackson has an almost 9 inch reach advantage. Quik wins this one with superior kickboxing work.

Ryan Hall at -446 for 4 units. Hall is a great grappler from Northern Virginia. BJ Penn fights in another UFC bout here. BJ and all his brothers have the same name, Jay Dee Penn. That’s wild. BJ has not won a fight since he beat Matt Hughes in 2010. The man that once defended the lightweight championship 3 times, could be fighting his last fight tonight.

Walt Harris/Andrei Arlovski under 2.5 at -153 for 3 units. Walt Harris hasn’t seen the 3rd round in any of his last 5 fights. Andrei Arlovski last 5 fights have gone to a decision. Harris will be too much for the 39 year old…

Jon Jones/Alexander Gustafsson under 4.5 at -117 for 3 units. Jon Jones doesn’t like people saying he “lost” to Gustafsson when the decision went to Jones the first time these two met… he will be knockout hunting in this one. Gustafsson is ready to fight, if he wasn’t, he would have shut the fight down when it was moved from Nevada to California last week. Gustafsson is the only UFC fighter to takedown Jon Jones. Should be a good one with a knockout or submission. Gotta feeling…..

Lee/Iaquinta

2-1 on UFC/MMA down 1.43 units

Lost the big bet on Brian Ortega last time out. What a fight that was. Max Holloway scared me away with his health issues, but damn is he a beast.

Zak Cummings at -316 for 3 units. Cummings has a 6-3 UFC record, while Smith is 5-5. Cummings will win this one with a submission.

Joaquim Silva at +108 for 3 units. Bet on the Brazilian. Silva has lost 1 match in his UFC career and it went the distance. I told myself I would bet on him in his next fight when he lost to Pinchel and here we are. I expect him to rebound nicely.

Charles Oliveira at -303 for 3 units. Bet on the Brazilian. Oliveira is going for revenge as Jim Miller was his first ever loss. Charles submitted to the knee bar in the first round against Miller. Oliveira is coming off back 2 back performances of the night. I like him here.

Lee/Iaquinta over 2.5 at -120 for 5 units. Iaquinta went the distance with Khabib. This is a rematch of a fight that went the distance. These guys are a great matchup and I think this one goes the distance as well. Kevin Lee has the ability to submit Iaquinta, but I don’t think he will. This should be a good one.

Holloway/Ortega

0-0 on UFC/MMA

Thiago Santos at -191 for 3 units. Thiago Santos is Brazilian. Jimi Manuwa isn’t. What more do you need to know? Seriously though. Manuwa has the reach advantage, but Thiago’s ability to use body and leg kicks will wear Manuwa down. Santos received the fight of the night last time out in his TKO win over Eryk Anders. That momentum carries over.

Valentina Shevchenko at -303 for 3 units. Shevchenko has been close to winning a title, but hasn’t done it yet. She gets it tonight. Jedrzejczyk losses to Namajunas knocked her down a peg, but she is still a beast monster. Valentina has to make this fight ugly and not let Jedrzejczyk kickbox her to death. 125 is the ideal weight for Valentina and that will show tonight.

Brian Ortega at -105 for 4 units. Ortega has never lost. Max Holloway is no joke, but I am just going with my gut in this one. Holloway has won 12 fights in a row and that is the longest current active streak in the UFC. Holloway has had to pull out of 2 title fights this season due to health concerns. Ortega has never been knocked out, even though he has lost some rounds handily. The scrappiness of Ortega is hard to deny. Should be a good one.