Oh Garth


ATP Rome 2nd Round

91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

36-43 on tennis in 2019 down 41.53 units

Joao Sousa +5 at +109 for 12 units. Tilting. Federer did not look good on clay last week in Madrid. I imagine the slower surface conditions in Rome will make life even more difficult for Fed. Federer has no points to defend since he did not play on clay in 2017 or 2018. Sousa lost to Federer on grass in 2014 in a close match. That was Federer’s favorite surface, this is Sousa’s.

Sousa/Federer over 20 at -110 for 5 units. Sending it.

Fognini/Krygios -2/Tsitsipas Parlay risking 4 units to win 8 units. This Kyrgios bet is completely unreasonably based on the fact that he started his match yesterday with an underhand serve against Medvedev… and ended it with 4 straight (overhand) aces. Tsitsipas should take care of business. Fognini lost to to Radu Albot already this year; however, this match is on Fognini’s home soil. Fognini prefers this surface over the hardcourts that Albot won on earlier. Also, the Italian is in much better form than he was in Florida/California.

Blazers Forget to Show Up

Hand up. I had Blazers +8. I am so confused by Portland’s lack of effort. Kanter, McCollum, and Damian played poorly. Even if you’re not shooting well, you have to step up on defense, like Klay Thompson does time and time again. Damian needs to stick like glue to Curry in transition. Damian would sag into THE PAINT on defense in transition against the best shooter of all-time. I’d rather him foul out with 6 landing zone fouls than what he did tonight. Also, Kanter and Collins would be in THE PAINT when Green would set a screen for Curry. Damian or C.J. would get screened and the big man was nowhere to be found. That is not how you guard Steph Curry. Curry was 9-15 from 3 because of Portland’s terrible defensive effort and gameplan.

I don’t care that Portland shot 25% from deep. I don’t care that every Portland starter, except for Aminu, had a negative assist/turnover ratio. I don’t even care that Portland had 17 more turnovers than they did in their last game. 17! I care that Portland had a chance to steal a game against a KD-less Warriors team and they seemed to not even try on defense. I don’t know if it was poor coaching or a Game 7 hangover, but they are going to get swept (again) if they don’t change. Warriors win 116-94 and take a 1-0 series lead. Golden State is 2.5-0 since KD got injured.

MLB May 14th

92-83 on MLB last season and went up 34.31 units

5-5 on MLB this season up 4.24 units 

Posting late. Keeping it short.

Royals at -138 for 3 units. Shelby Miller has given up 53 baserunners in 27 innings pitched this season. Fading him and the Rangers tonight.

Giants at -125 for 3 units. Trent Thornton is 0-4 this season. He is starting for the Blue Jays against SF tonight.

Sean’s Playoff Hockey and Basketball Predictions – May 14th

Writer: Sean Sloan

Sean’s record 1-1 down 0.29 units

The Stanley Cup Playoffs are proving to be as random as advertised. I want to think Carolina will win tonight. They have shown persistence in this postseason already, having been down 2-0 in the Washington series. I am not going to count them out, but I also am not entirely confident in this team getting it done tonight. I am feeling the under tonight, but more specifically Boston under 2.5, and it rides on the Canes making a goalie change. Curtis McElhinney is the expected starter tonight source. I think this will be a good change of pace for the Canes. McElhinney had a season SV% of .912 which would be way better than Mrazek’s .852 in Game 1 and .76 in Game 2.

I think a new look against the Bruins is needed. In Game 1 Boston had 4 goals on 27 shots and in Game 2 they had 6 goals on 25 shots. Game 1 was a lot closer than the scoreboard, and Game 2… not so much. I don’t see this team rolling over in front of their home crowd. I see the combination of the low volume shots Carolina has allowed and the different look in net holding the Bruins under 2.5 goals. Boston has not scored under 2.5 goals since Game 3 against Columbus, and have only scored under that total 5 times this postseason. On top of that they are averaging 3.4 goals per game in the playoffs. So I understand not tailing on this one…. I am still rolling with it though.

My Play: TT Boston Bruins u2.5 (-105) – 1U

– NBA –

Conference finals matchups are set, and I am ready! Tonight, I expect the Warriors to win, but if there is a chance for Portland in the series, they have strike while KD is out. I am going to be rooting hard for Portland, but am struggling with the spread, and honestly in a gun to my head decision I’d have to go with the Warriors -7.5. I think the best play tonight is the over 220.5. I like both these teams to put up points tonight. Throughout the playoffs Portland has scored an average of 110.25 PPG and allowed 110.75 PPG. On offense, the Warriors have averaged 117.67 PPG this postseason and have allowed 111.83 PPG. I see this one going over the 220.5 total. Using 220.5 as the benchmark for all the games played this postseason Portland would be 7-5 going over and Golden State would be 8-4 on the over. During the regular season these teams faced off 4 times and they split the 4 games at 2 wins a piece. If the O/U line were 220.5 in those 4 matchups, they would be 2-2 on the over as well. The average game total for these two teams in the regular season was 224.25.

My Play: Golden State Warriors/Portland Trail Blazers o220.5 (-110) – 1U

NBA Western Conference Finals

4-2 on the NBA playoffs up 0.76 units

Trail Blazers +8 at -115 for 5 units. Blazers went 1-1 at the Oracle this season. Kevin Durant is still out. Portland should control the paint and the free throw line as the Warriors are one of the worst teams in both of those categories. They are the best at other obvious categories like shooting and assists. The Blazers know they have to win one of these first two games if they want to move on to the Finals. Damian and CJ are 1-8 against the Warriors in the playoffs, but I think that record improves during this series. Taking the points tonight.

MLB May 13th

92-83 on MLB last season and went up 34.31 units

5-3 on MLB this season up 8.24 units 

Tigers at +140 for 2 units. Matthew Boyd of the Tigers has pitched 13 more innings than Brad Peacock of the Astros. Peacock has allowed more home runs though. Boyd averages well over a strikeout an inning. Brandon Dixon has been hot since Detroit picked up off of waivers. Tigers have a winning record at home (barely). Astros have a losing record on the road (barely). Good value here with Detroit’s ace on the mound.

Yankees/Orioles over 8.5 at -110 for 2 unit. No Yankee player has more than 5 ABs against the starter for Baltimore today, Daniel Hess. 5 Yankee players have homered against him though. Yankees scored 7 in their last game. The bats are waking up. Aaron Hicks is returning. Orioles lost 15-3 the last time Hess started against the Yankees. All we need is half of those runs today.

ATP Rome – Internazionali BNL d’Italia Preview

91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

36-41 on tennis in 2019 down 29.53 units

Nadal won this event last year. Djokovic and Nadal have won this event all but two times since 2004. It’s 2019. Nadal hasn’t won a title so far in 2019. He will want to win here before Roland Garros. Thiem and Tsitsipas are hot. Nadal and Djokovic dominate this tournament. Federer is Federer. Should be another exciting tournament like Madrid was.

Felix Auger-Aliassime at -115 for 6 units. FAA beat Coric in Miami this year. Coric is 0-2 in the main draw here in Rome. FAA is 5-1 in opening rounds on clay this year. Borna Coric is out-of-form. FAA’s ability to chase down balls and play winners will be enough here.

Gael Monfils at -288 for 6 units. Monfils has played 3 matches against Albert Ramos-Vinolas and won all 3 in straight sets. Monfils looked solid in Madrid. Both players are in decent form, but Monfils can decide the winner of this match.

ATP Rome Gets Underway – Will Roger Federer Participate?

91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

36-40 on tennis in 2019 down 24.53 units

Taylor Fritz/Martin Klizan/Reilley Opelka -1 Parlay risking 5 units to win 8.14 units. Fritz and Klizan are not going to lose. Opelka beat Gulbis 2-0 in their only other meeting on clay. Opelka is having a better clay season than he did last year, when he beat Gulbis. Gulbis has lost 9 matches in a row and 6 in a row on clay. Opelka’s serve will be enough to move on. A lot of units for a parlay in tennis, but I didn’t go up 42 units last year on tennis by being a Pus—- Michael Cera-type. I still love Superbad… Jonah Hill and Emma Stone have great chem. They would have highlighted green bars in fifa ultimate team.  Emma Stone is good-looking enough to be a co-star in a film with Ryan Gosling. Yes it was 8 years ago, but she is good-looking enough to be in Crazy, Stupid, Love as a lead with him. Gingers are hot.