18-15-4 on golf in 2018 up 13.74 units
Phil Mickelson and Dustin Johnson did well for me last week at TPC Southwind during the FedEx St. Jude Classic. Phil has placed in 2nd at the U.S. Open 6 times. 6! He will be motivated to win this one. Phil got second the last time the U.S. Open was played at Shinnecock when he lost to Retief Goosen in 2004. Rickie Fowler has also got second at the U.S. Open back when Fowler was playing excellent golf in 2014. Shinnecock Hills Golf Club is a tough course and the greens will most likely play fast over the weekend after the course dries up. A situation like this may give an advantage to solid short game players like Jason Day and Rickie.
Top 10 finishers:
Jason Day at +150 for 2 units. Day hasn’t had the best approach game lately (outside of top 150 in that catergory), but he has been dominating the short game.
Jordan Spieth at +150 for 2 units. His putting has just been so bad and he still almost won the Masters. I like the 3 time major champion to right the ship this weekend. Putting is not as important as ball-striking on this course in my opinion. Spieth is great at reading the course and lies, I like him to do well here.
Phil Mickelson at +275 for 3 units. I think this is his last shot to complete the career grand slam. At 48, he would be the oldest U.S. Open winner ever. I do not think he will win, and I hope for his sake he does not get 2nd for the 7th time. I still think he has a solid chance of finishing in the Top 10 though.
Brooks Koepka over Tiger Woods at -130 for 1 unit. Tiger fade. Brooks looked okay last week and has a title to defend. Koepka has not missed a beat since returning from his multiple month wrist injury.
Phil Mickelson over Branden Grace at -120 for 1 unit.
Phil Mickelson over Bryson DeChambeau at -110 for 1 unit. Just going to ride Phil. This is one where my heart could be getting in the way of my brain…
Jordan Spieth over Tiger Woods at -130 for 6 units. Spieth will do better than Tiger this tournament….
Jason Day over Justin Rose at +115 for 2 units.
Jason Day over Rory McIlroy at -110 for 2 units. Rory and Rose have not impressed me too much this year. When Jason Day is on, I think he is the best golfer in the world even if Dustin Cokehead Johnson is #1.
Adam Scott over Tony Finau at -110 for 5 units. Finau fade. Finau missed the cut last week and hasn’t placed in the top 10 since April. Scott also hired a longtime Shinnecock caddy as his caddy this week… so he has the good mojo/karma.
14-10-4 on golf in 2018 up 17.77 units
Marc Leishman over Adam Scott at -120 for 4 units. Scott shot a -4 in the first round, while Leishman shot a -10. This is the first time this tournament has been played at this course and Leishman is clearly in a comfort zone on it. Leishman could have done even better, but he missed some putts (a ten footer mainly). He was one stroke off the course record! I may be overreacting, but this is just too much value to pass up.
14-10-4 on golf in 2018 up 17.77 units
Just going with guys who are underdogs in their head 2 head matchups but more likely to win the whole tournament according to Vegas. This is the first time this tournament has been played here (Trinity Forest) so who knows what plays well on this course. Just going with value plays.
Satoshi Kodaira over John Huh at +110 for 2 units. Kodaira is the better player at plus money. Easy play here.
Andrew Putnam over Seamus Power at -110 for 3 units. Putnam has solid driving accuracy and hits a lot of greens in regulation. Seamus is a solid putter, but he may not hit enough fairways on this links style course.
Maverick McNealy over Sam Saunders at +115 for 2 units. Maverick has the better name and is +9300 while Saunders is +10000 to win the tournament.
Billy Horschel over Marc Leishman at +140 for 2 units. These two have the same odds to win the tournament, so I will side with the underdog in this matchup. They have similar FedEx Cup points. Horschel is better at putting and off the tee in 2018, but Leishman has the better recovery.
Beau Hossler over Charles Howell III at +105 for 4 units. Hossler got 2nd at the Houston Open and is a solid putter. Howell III is better at driving, but I like how well Hossler played in Texas this year. Hossler is +2200 to win the tournament, while Howell is only +4200
This is one of my favorite tournaments to watch because the atmosphere is a little more raucous than most. The field is strong this year and Hideki Matsuyama is going for his 3rd straight win.. something only Arnold Palmer has done. All of these plays are for the whole tournament. The only drawback of this tournament is that if it goes to a playoff on Sunday, the Super Bowl will be on..
Ryan Palmer vs Charley Hoffman for 3 units at -105. Palmer is from Texas and is a good desert golf course player. He had the lead going into the weekend at the Farmers Insurance Open last week. He ended up finishing second while Hoffman finished tied for 35th. Palmer’s wife had a cancer spell last year, but it seems he can now focus on golf again. His form is a lot better than Hoffman so I am taking him with the low juice.
Jordan Spieth vs Jon Rahm for 3 units at -110. Spieth has not been his normal putting self lately and that may be part of the reason for the low juice. Rahm got 29th last week at the Farmers and Spieth did not play in it. Spieth got 9th in this tournament last year and Rahm got 16th. I just think Spieth will hit a gear on Saturday and Sunday that Rahm will not be able to match.
Zach Johnson vs J.B. Holmes for 3 units at -130. Zach finished 12th in this tournament last year and Holmes finished 24th. Johnson is 3rd in scoring average on the season and has been playing solid golf. Holmes finished top 5 last week, but was not playing good golf before that. Johnson is just a far more consistent golfer and had a 66 on this course last year.
Webb Simpson vs Daniel Berger for 2 units at -135. Webb lost the playoff of this tournament last year after shooting a 64 on Sunday. Berger did not do bad himself finishing 7th. Webb has one of the best sand save percentages on the tour and that is an area where Berger has struggled this season. Webb also has a higher greens in regulation percentage than Berger. Berger has been playing well this year, but I like the North Carolina native Webb here.
Byeong-Hun An vs Tony Finau for 2 unit at +175. This line is so good because Byeong-Hun played in Dubai last week. An got 6th in this tournament last year, while Finau did not even make the cut. An is one of the best drivers on the tour, while Finau can drive it far, but not accurately. I just think An is better at courses of this type even with his tough travel schedule.
Scott Piercy vs Harris English for 1 unit at +120. English finished 6 strokes better than Piercy at this tournament last year. English also finished top 10 last week at the Farmers.