Category: Golf

21-21-4 on golf in 2018 up 3.41 units

8-10 in 2019 down 3.22 units

0-0 in 2020

Fall Golf is a little weird, but the Masters is must watch tv. The weather could dampen the mood a little, but I think it just means you have to find “calm” steady golfers.

The hole-in-one by Jon Rahm is a fun way to get it started. Bryson DeChambeau is bringing out the longest, biggest driver ever in Augusta. It is all about Head Speed and power for Bryson. He is going to bomb it to some greens.

Top 10

Tony Finau +155 for 1 unit. Finau has all the talent to win this tournament, but he won’t. Finau has one of the best shoe games on tour, but that is not why I am betting him. Finau has all the tools to place in the top 5. I like him in the top 10 at plus money. Solid ROI here. Finau got a top-10 with a sprained ankle in 2018. EZ money.

Jordan Spieth +330 for 1 unit. He loves this place.

Matt Kuchar +850 for 1 unit. Kuchar should pay his caddies, but I like his ability to stay even in what could be some bad weather.

Tournament Matchups

Webb Simpson over Colin Morikawa at -140 for 2 units. Fading the youngster. Gotta go with my North Carolina guy Webb.

Brooks Kopeka over Bubba Watson at -130 for 2 units. Bubba has been off this year. Brooks is more consistent at high level events. Brooks hasn’t won this tournament yet. I think he has a better chance than the odds are saying, but I really like him over Bubba. Brooks will ride his top-5 finish last week to a good week..

Top Rest of World Player – Corey Connors at +2100 for 1 unit.

Top Canadian – Corey Connors at even for 1 unit. Corey Connors is one of the best iron players on tour. That is needed at Augusta. Connors is my favorite sleeper because of his ball-striking and recovery abilities.

Top English Player – Lee Westwood at +850 for 1 unit. Westwood has finished 2nd in this tournament twice and has finished in the top-25 of a lot of tournaments this season. Great value here.

Top Spanish Player – Jon Rahm at -375 for 3 units. Shouldn’t be a contest with Garcia, won’t be without him. Rahm never takes a break and is always in top-10s.

Top 20 Finish – Rickie Fowler at +145 for 1 unit. Just a Rickie fan. Want him to win one big one.

21-21-4 on golf in 2018 up 3.41 units

7-8 in 2019 down 0.22 units

Tiger loves playing his irons and this a great course for it, but he has struggled on putting on these poa annua greens this season. If Tiger can start hot, I think the rest of the field should be very worried. Woods hasn’t seemed to have the same focus that he had at the Masters recently, but a U.S. Open at Pebble Beach should be more than enough to get his attention.

The rough is thick and if you miss a green.. you could be double-bogeying here. These bumpy greens and roughs will make it difficult if players are not striking the ball well. I do think we will see some low numbers though, as a lot of players have experience for days on this course.

Round 1 – Brandt Snedeker vs. Henrik Stenson – Brandt Snedeker at -105 for 6 units. Snedeker shot a 69 here at Pebble Beach to kick off the Pro-Am back in February. The problem was he shot a 74/75 to follow that up and got cut. Snedeker has been one of the best players on the greens and has excelled at getting out of bunkers this year. Snedeker tied for 4th in his last tournament, while Stenson tied for 37th in his last tournament.

Also, Snedeker has finished in the top 10 at the U.S. Open in 5 of his last 10 appearances. Two of Snedeker’s nine tour wins have come here at Pebble Beach. He should be more heavily favored in this matchup. His driving comes and goes, but I think his short game, coupled with him already playing this course this year, gets him the round 1 victory over Stenson. Stenson is one of the best ball-strikers on tour, but I think he makes a few mistakes.

To Finish in the Top 10:

Tiger Woods at +135 for 2 units. If Tiger can make putts, this will win easy.

Adam Scott at +350 for 2 units. Scott is one of my favorite characters on Parks and Rec. Adam has finished in the top-20 at both majors so far this year. He is a great ball-striker and that is what is needed here. Also, he was frustrated with a 2nd-place finish the Memorial Tournament the other week. He is playing well.

Rickie Fowler at +250 for 2 units. The 2010 rookie of the year has yet to win a major, although he has finished top 3 in all of them. He will be wearing his tropical colors in this tropical location. I can guarantee that. His King Cobra throwback hat was cool. He has finished in the top-15 in 3 of his past 5 tournaments. I have a gut-feeling he will do well this week.

21-21-4 on golf in 2018 up 3.41 units

3-2 in 2019 up 1.92 units

7 Plays still pending. No Hole in one and no first time winner please. Also, Tiger don’t shoot a 68 or lower. Stay at 69 if anything. My Brooks Koepka as the top American is looking good right now as well.

Sergio Garcia avoided the +13 on the 15th-hole on Thursday this year, unlike last year. That is a Masters record for any hole. He hit the water 5 times. Just reminds me of me on much easier golf courses.

3 Balls – Group 28 – Jon Rahm at +130 for 2 units. Rahm had two bogeys in 4 holes on the front 9 that included a toss of the driver after a poor shot. He rallied nicely. He was even on par 5s on Thursday and finished -3 for the day. He shoots -2 or -3 on par 5s on Friday and wins the group as a result. Tiger’s ball striking was not perfect, which meant he had to make putts. He did not make the necessary putts and is 4 strokes back from the lead and 1 stroke behind Rahm. Woods wants those 7 foot misses on holes 5 and 6 back. Rahm seems to have figured out Augusta scoring under 70 in 4 straight rounds. I like him here again.

3 Balls – Group 24 – Adam Scott at +125 for 2 units. Hideki Matsuyama did not get the start he wanted. Adam Scott gained some confidence on the back 9 and that will carry into Friday. Hideki has to play aggressive to make the cut and that is always dangerous here. Scott’s GIR and ability to hit fairways wins this bet.

Brooks Koepka vs Paul Casey second round only at -177 for 7 units. Koepka shot a -6 on Thursday. Casey shot a +9. Paul Casey has never won a major. Koepka has won 3 in the past 2 years. Casey is 13 years older. Koepka had to sit out the 2018 Masters due to wrist surgery (from lifting too many weights prolly, wrist curls will get ya). Watching on tv put the proverbial fire in the belly of Koepka. Paul Casey double bogeyed the par 4 5th-hole that I talked about in my Masters preview yesterday. Koepka was -5 on the par 4s and 5s combined, while Casey went +7 on those holes. Koepka accurately drove the ball about 15 yards further than Casey on average. That may not continue, but if Koepka can keep putting (no pun intended) himself in better positions, this will win easy.

Bubba Watson vs Patrick Cantlay at -119 for 1 unit. Bubba is the man. He has the experience and the left-handedness.

21-21-4 on golf in 2018 up 3.41 units

2-0 in 2019 up 6.00 units 

It’s finally here. The best golf tournament of the year. Patrick Reed won the 2018 Masters. His estranged family will not be attending. Reed and his family have a more interesting, volatile story than even Aaron Rodgers does with his real and football family combined. Football is family. I miss football. Tears on the keyboard. I’ll dive into Reed’s family more after the Masters because there is sure to be another installment this weekend. Patrick Reed’s champions dinner menu has been one of the most anticipated menus in recent memory. Prolly cause he is doughy.

Here’s a fun game: Guess which foods Reed picked against which ones he was forced to put on the menu. Caesar/Wedge Salad. Prime Bone-in Cowboy Ribeye. Corn Creme Brulee. Mac and Cheese. Yes, Mac and Cheese is on the Masters Club Dinner menu. Creamed Spinach. Steamed Broccoli. Tiramisu. Vanilla Bean Creme Brulee. Reed likes his Creme that’s forsure. I am going to go out on a limb and say everything but the vegetables he decided.

Justin Rose is the world #1, but is not really that close to being the favorite. Rory Mcilroy is the favorite and rightfully so by my very average excel model. Rory leads the tour in strokes gained from Tee-to-green and strokes gained off-the-tee this year. He has been striking the ball incredibly well. Rory nor Rose has ever won this tournament however.

The 5th hole has seen the most changes since last season. The 5th hole is hard to fit spectators on as it is sandwiched between two beautiful par-3s. I don’t know if they added 40 yards and made a bigger tee-box to fit more spectators specifically, but it will certainly help in that aspect. It was the 6th hardest hole on the course during last year’s Masters. Now it will crack the top 5. You can’t hit one of these bunkers and expect to birdie anymore. They are too deep and the hole is too long. Tiger Woods even said “I think they’re unplayable to get the ball to the green” when talking about the bunkers. I am interested to see how the new green will play too. It is bigger with an added ridge. The 5th hole will get a lot of chatter on Thursday.

Onto the plays:

2-0 in 2019 up 6.00 units 

Jon Rahm vs Tiger Woods first round only at -105 for 4 units. Rahm played so well last year before his meltdown. I think he starts hot again. I like him on day 1 a lot more than Tiger. Tiger could finish better than him over the weekend, but I doubt even that. Rahm should be a lot more heavily favored against Tiger than a coin flip when you factor in health and recent performances here.

Matt Kuchar vs Ian Poulter first round only at -119 for 4 units. Kuchar has finshed in the top-5 3 of the past 7 years here. Poulter has 13 starts here, 2 top-10s, 1 missed cut, and has never made the top 5. Going with the player that plays the course better to get off to the hotter start.

Hideki Matsuyama vs Adam Scott first round only/Jon Rahm vs Tiger Woods first round only/Rory McIlroy over Cameron Smith first round only – Parlay risking 4 units to win 15.12 units. By my very average excel numbers Rory should be a 4.6/1 favorite. He is a 7/1 favorite. That is enough for me to like him over Cam Smith in the first round at least. Rory has been striking the ball far more consistently than Smith this year. Scott has 5 top 15 finishes in his last 8 Masters, but Matsuyama has finished in the top 20 in the last 4 Masters. Over their past 50 rounds, Deki ranks first in Strokes Gained: Approach, second in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking and fourth in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. Once again I am going with the better ball striker at the moment.

Masters First Time Winner – No at +350 for 3 units. I’ll take Tiger Woods, Jordan Spieth, Vijay Singh, Adam Scott, Phil Michelson, Angel Cabrera, Fred Couples, Sergio Garcia, Trevor Immelman, Zach Johnson, Bernhard Langer, Sandy Kyle, Larry Mize, Jose Olazabal, Charl Schwartzel, Bubba Watson, Mike Weir, Ian Woosnam, and Danny Willett vs the field at these odds. Dustin Johnson and Rory are obviously the most likely to mess this bet up, but the “underdogs” are a fun play in this one.

Tiger Woods – Lowest Completed Round – Over 68½ Strokes at -110 for 4 units. Woods lowest round was a 69 last year and he was a DNP in 2016/17. Tiger has so many health concerns and wasn’t too far from getting cut last year. Even if he makes this cut, shooting a -4 in any round would be impressive to me. Tiger struggles on hole No.4 and hasn’t played well on it since 2005. Now that hole No.5 is tough too, that two-hole stretch could be the difference in this bet.

No Hole in One at +120 for 1 unit. It will happen on the 16th or 6th hole if it happens. There has been an ace or three each of the past 3 years. We are due for a drought. Shane Lowry, Davis Love III, Louis Oosthuizen, Matt Kuchar, and Charley Hoffman each have one hole-in-one on the 16th over the past 3 years. If one of them does it again, I will take it personally.

Yes Playoff at +350 for 1 unit. Why not? Let’s win a little bit and watch the rare Sudden Death playoff at a major that only the Masters can offer.

Jordan Spieth Top American at +900 for 1 unit.

Justin Thomas Top American at +900 for 1 unit.

Brooks Koepka Top American at +1150 for 1 unit. Dustin Johnson, Tiger Woods, and Rickie (Maybe Bubba) are the only 3 Americans I can see beating these 3. If Spieth can find his putting I like him a lot. Thomas is first in birdie % and first in scoring average this year. That’s enough for me to sprinkle a little on him to be the top American. Throwing in Brooks cause his girl is a smoke and good luck charm.

21-21-4 on golf in 2018 up 3.41 units

0-0 in 2019

Two first round matchup predictions today. Small units. Mainly just scouting so I can go big on the Masters.

Byeong-Hun An vs Beau Hossler at -153 for 4 units. Hossler shot a 77 on this course in his last round here. Byeong-Hun An has always had the driving distance, but he has been one of the best on tour around-the-green this season. Also, he has shown the ability to consistently play out of bunkers, which is needed here. Hossler lacks the driving distance and approach play An has shown this year. Hossler will have more difficult 2nd and 3rd shots throughout the day and that will show on the scorecard.

Patrick Reed vs Tiger Woods at +113 for 3 units. Value play. Tiger has to be a little rusty and it is anyone’s guess how he will perform in his first tournament back from a neck injury. Reed played well at this course in February.