Masters Round 3 Predictions

21-21-4 on golf in 2018 up 3.41 units

6-3 in 2019 up 7.24 units

Tiger Woods roared into second place on Friday. Tiger got tripped by a security guard. Fire him.

Calm down, sir, this is Augusta National.

Tiger fought through a weather delay. Tiger don’t care. Woods shot a -4 on Friday.

Ian Poulter over Tiger Woods at +131 for 2 units.

Rory McIlroy over Marc Leishman at -178 for 7 units. Posting quick because I think the odds will change. Poulter has been playing great this week. His mistake free golf makes it a good bet. Rory will beat Leishman. Rory’s ability to drive the ball will show up today. If he can make his putts and hit fairways he will beat Leishman. I know that seems easy to say, but the Mark Titus said it best to win basketball games “you have to make shots”. Sorry for the sports crossover. If Rory outputts Leishman, this will win.

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The Masters at Augusta – Round 2 Preview and Predictions – Will Jon Rahm Play Better Than Tiger Woods Again?

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3-2 in 2019 up 1.92 units

7 Plays still pending. No Hole in one and no first time winner please. Also, Tiger don’t shoot a 68 or lower. Stay at 69 if anything. My Brooks Koepka as the top American is looking good right now as well.

Sergio Garcia avoided the +13 on the 15th-hole on Thursday this year, unlike last year. That is a Masters record for any hole. He hit the water 5 times. Just reminds me of me on much easier golf courses.

3 Balls – Group 28 – Jon Rahm at +130 for 2 units. Rahm had two bogeys in 4 holes on the front 9 that included a toss of the driver after a poor shot. He rallied nicely. He was even on par 5s on Thursday and finished -3 for the day. He shoots -2 or -3 on par 5s on Friday and wins the group as a result. Tiger’s ball striking was not perfect, which meant he had to make putts. He did not make the necessary putts and is 4 strokes back from the lead and 1 stroke behind Rahm. Woods wants those 7 foot misses on holes 5 and 6 back. Rahm seems to have figured out Augusta scoring under 70 in 4 straight rounds. I like him here again.

3 Balls – Group 24 – Adam Scott at +125 for 2 units. Hideki Matsuyama did not get the start he wanted. Adam Scott gained some confidence on the back 9 and that will carry into Friday. Hideki has to play aggressive to make the cut and that is always dangerous here. Scott’s GIR and ability to hit fairways wins this bet.

Brooks Koepka vs Paul Casey second round only at -177 for 7 units. Koepka shot a -6 on Thursday. Casey shot a +9. Paul Casey has never won a major. Koepka has won 3 in the past 2 years. Casey is 13 years older. Koepka had to sit out the 2018 Masters due to wrist surgery (from lifting too many weights prolly, wrist curls will get ya). Watching on tv put the proverbial fire in the belly of Koepka. Paul Casey double bogeyed the par 4 5th-hole that I talked about in my Masters preview yesterday. Koepka was -5 on the par 4s and 5s combined, while Casey went +7 on those holes. Koepka accurately drove the ball about 15 yards further than Casey on average. That may not continue, but if Koepka can keep putting (no pun intended) himself in better positions, this will win easy.

Bubba Watson vs Patrick Cantlay at -119 for 1 unit. Bubba is the man. He has the experience and the left-handedness.

The Masters Preview and Predictions

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2-0 in 2019 up 6.00 units 

It’s finally here. The best golf tournament of the year. Patrick Reed won the 2018 Masters. His estranged family will not be attending. Reed and his family have a more interesting, volatile story than even Aaron Rodgers does with his real and football family combined. Football is family. I miss football. Tears on the keyboard. I’ll dive into Reed’s family more after the Masters because there is sure to be another installment this weekend. Patrick Reed’s champions dinner menu has been one of the most anticipated menus in recent memory. Prolly cause he is doughy.

Here’s a fun game: Guess which foods Reed picked against which ones he was forced to put on the menu. Caesar/Wedge Salad. Prime Bone-in Cowboy Ribeye. Corn Creme Brulee. Mac and Cheese. Yes, Mac and Cheese is on the Masters Club Dinner menu. Creamed Spinach. Steamed Broccoli. Tiramisu. Vanilla Bean Creme Brulee. Reed likes his Creme that’s forsure. I am going to go out on a limb and say everything but the vegetables he decided.

Justin Rose is the world #1, but is not really that close to being the favorite. Rory Mcilroy is the favorite and rightfully so by my very average excel model. Rory leads the tour in strokes gained from Tee-to-green and strokes gained off-the-tee this year. He has been striking the ball incredibly well. Rory nor Rose has ever won this tournament however.

The 5th hole has seen the most changes since last season. The 5th hole is hard to fit spectators on as it is sandwiched between two beautiful par-3s. I don’t know if they added 40 yards and made a bigger tee-box to fit more spectators specifically, but it will certainly help in that aspect. It was the 6th hardest hole on the course during last year’s Masters. Now it will crack the top 5. You can’t hit one of these bunkers and expect to birdie anymore. They are too deep and the hole is too long. Tiger Woods even said “I think they’re unplayable to get the ball to the green” when talking about the bunkers. I am interested to see how the new green will play too. It is bigger with an added ridge. The 5th hole will get a lot of chatter on Thursday.

Onto the plays:

2-0 in 2019 up 6.00 units 

Jon Rahm vs Tiger Woods first round only at -105 for 4 units. Rahm played so well last year before his meltdown. I think he starts hot again. I like him on day 1 a lot more than Tiger. Tiger could finish better than him over the weekend, but I doubt even that. Rahm should be a lot more heavily favored against Tiger than a coin flip when you factor in health and recent performances here.

Matt Kuchar vs Ian Poulter first round only at -119 for 4 units. Kuchar has finshed in the top-5 3 of the past 7 years here. Poulter has 13 starts here, 2 top-10s, 1 missed cut, and has never made the top 5. Going with the player that plays the course better to get off to the hotter start.

Hideki Matsuyama vs Adam Scott first round only/Jon Rahm vs Tiger Woods first round only/Rory McIlroy over Cameron Smith first round only – Parlay risking 4 units to win 15.12 units. By my very average excel numbers Rory should be a 4.6/1 favorite. He is a 7/1 favorite. That is enough for me to like him over Cam Smith in the first round at least. Rory has been striking the ball far more consistently than Smith this year. Scott has 5 top 15 finishes in his last 8 Masters, but Matsuyama has finished in the top 20 in the last 4 Masters. Over their past 50 rounds, Deki ranks first in Strokes Gained: Approach, second in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking and fourth in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. Once again I am going with the better ball striker at the moment.

Masters First Time Winner – No at +350 for 3 units. I’ll take Tiger Woods, Jordan Spieth, Vijay Singh, Adam Scott, Phil Michelson, Angel Cabrera, Fred Couples, Sergio Garcia, Trevor Immelman, Zach Johnson, Bernhard Langer, Sandy Kyle, Larry Mize, Jose Olazabal, Charl Schwartzel, Bubba Watson, Mike Weir, Ian Woosnam, and Danny Willett vs the field at these odds. Dustin Johnson and Rory are obviously the most likely to mess this bet up, but the “underdogs” are a fun play in this one.

Tiger Woods – Lowest Completed Round – Over 68½ Strokes at -110 for 4 units. Woods lowest round was a 69 last year and he was a DNP in 2016/17. Tiger has so many health concerns and wasn’t too far from getting cut last year. Even if he makes this cut, shooting a -4 in any round would be impressive to me. Tiger struggles on hole No.4 and hasn’t played well on it since 2005. Now that hole No.5 is tough too, that two-hole stretch could be the difference in this bet.

No Hole in One at +120 for 1 unit. It will happen on the 16th or 6th hole if it happens. There has been an ace or three each of the past 3 years. We are due for a drought. Shane Lowry, Davis Love III, Louis Oosthuizen, Matt Kuchar, and Charley Hoffman each have one hole-in-one on the 16th over the past 3 years. If one of them does it again, I will take it personally.

Yes Playoff at +350 for 1 unit. Why not? Let’s win a little bit and watch the rare Sudden Death playoff at a major that only the Masters can offer.

Jordan Spieth Top American at +900 for 1 unit.

Justin Thomas Top American at +900 for 1 unit.

Brooks Koepka Top American at +1150 for 1 unit. Dustin Johnson, Tiger Woods, and Rickie (Maybe Bubba) are the only 3 Americans I can see beating these 3. If Spieth can find his putting I like him a lot. Thomas is first in birdie % and first in scoring average this year. That’s enough for me to sprinkle a little on him to be the top American. Throwing in Brooks cause his girl is a smoke and good luck charm.

Image result for jena sims

The PLAYERS Championship First Round

21-21-4 on golf in 2018 up 3.41 units

0-0 in 2019

Two first round matchup predictions today. Small units. Mainly just scouting so I can go big on the Masters.

Byeong-Hun An vs Beau Hossler at -153 for 4 units. Hossler shot a 77 on this course in his last round here. Byeong-Hun An has always had the driving distance, but he has been one of the best on tour around-the-green this season. Also, he has shown the ability to consistently play out of bunkers, which is needed here. Hossler lacks the driving distance and approach play An has shown this year. Hossler will have more difficult 2nd and 3rd shots throughout the day and that will show on the scorecard.

Patrick Reed vs Tiger Woods at +113 for 3 units. Value play. Tiger has to be a little rusty and it is anyone’s guess how he will perform in his first tournament back from a neck injury. Reed played well at this course in February.

Golf – U.S. Open

18-15-4 on golf in 2018 up 13.74 units

Phil Mickelson and Dustin Johnson did well for me last week at TPC Southwind during the FedEx St. Jude Classic. Phil has placed in 2nd at the U.S. Open 6 times. 6! He will be motivated to win this one. Phil got second the last time the U.S. Open was played at Shinnecock when he lost to Retief Goosen in 2004. Rickie Fowler has also got second at the U.S. Open back when Fowler was playing excellent golf in 2014. Shinnecock Hills Golf Club is a tough course and the greens will most likely play fast over the weekend after the course dries up. A situation like this may give an advantage to solid short game players like Jason Day and Rickie.

Top 10 finishers:

Jason Day at +150 for 2 units. Day hasn’t had the best approach game lately (outside of top 150 in that catergory), but he has been dominating the short game.

Jordan Spieth at +150 for 2 units. His putting has just been so bad and he still almost won the Masters. I like the 3 time major champion to right the ship this weekend. Putting is not as important as ball-striking on this course in my opinion. Spieth is great at reading the course and lies, I like him to do well here.

Phil Mickelson at +275 for 3 units. I think this is his last shot to complete the career grand slam. At 48, he would be the oldest U.S. Open winner ever. I do not think he will win, and I hope for his sake he does not get 2nd for the 7th time. I still think he has a solid chance of finishing in the Top 10 though.

Tournament matchups:

Brooks Koepka over Tiger Woods at -130 for 1 unit. Tiger fade. Brooks looked okay last week and has a title to defend. Koepka has not missed a beat since returning from his multiple month wrist injury.

Phil Mickelson over Branden Grace at -120 for 1 unit.

Phil Mickelson over Bryson DeChambeau at -110 for 1 unit. Just going to ride Phil. This is one where my heart could be getting in the way of my brain…

Jordan Spieth over Tiger Woods at -130 for 6 units. Spieth will do better than Tiger this tournament….

Jason Day over Justin Rose at +115 for 2 units.

Jason Day over Rory McIlroy at -110 for 2 units. Rory and Rose have not impressed me too much this year. When Jason Day is on, I think he is the best golfer in the world even if Dustin Cokehead Johnson is #1.

Adam Scott over Tony Finau at -110 for 5 units. Finau fade. Finau missed the cut last week and hasn’t placed in the top 10 since April. Scott also hired a longtime Shinnecock caddy as his caddy this week… so he has the good mojo/karma.

Golf – Byron Nelson Round 2

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Marc Leishman over Adam Scott at -120 for 4 units. Scott shot a -4 in the first round, while Leishman shot a -10. This is the first time this tournament has been played at this course and Leishman is clearly in a comfort zone on it. Leishman could have done even better, but he missed some putts (a ten footer mainly). He was one stroke off the course record! I may be overreacting, but this is just too much value to pass up.

Golf – AT&T Byron Nelson

14-10-4 on golf in 2018 up 17.77 units

Just going with guys who are underdogs in their head 2 head matchups but more likely to win the whole tournament according to Vegas. This is the first time this tournament has been played here (Trinity Forest) so who knows what plays well on this course. Just going with value plays.

Satoshi Kodaira over John Huh at +110 for 2 units. Kodaira is the better player at plus money. Easy play here.

Andrew Putnam over Seamus Power at -110 for 3 units. Putnam has solid driving accuracy and hits a lot of greens in regulation. Seamus is a solid putter, but he may not hit enough fairways on this links style course.

Maverick McNealy over Sam Saunders at +115 for 2 units. Maverick has the better name and is +9300 while Saunders is +10000 to win the tournament.

Billy Horschel over Marc Leishman at +140 for 2 units. These two have the same odds to win the tournament, so I will side with the underdog in this matchup. They have similar FedEx Cup points. Horschel is better at putting and off the tee in 2018, but Leishman has the better recovery.

Beau Hossler over Charles Howell III at +105 for 4 units. Hossler got 2nd at the Houston Open and is a solid putter. Howell III is better at driving, but I like how well Hossler played in Texas this year. Hossler is +2200 to win the tournament, while Howell is only +4200

Golf – 2018 Phoenix Open

This is one of my favorite tournaments to watch because the atmosphere is a little more raucous than most. The field is strong this year and Hideki Matsuyama is going for his 3rd straight win.. something only Arnold Palmer has done. All of these plays are for the whole tournament. The only drawback of this tournament is that if it goes to a playoff on Sunday, the Super Bowl will be on..

Ryan Palmer vs Charley Hoffman for 3 units at -105. Palmer is from Texas and is a good desert golf course player. He had the lead going into the weekend at the Farmers Insurance Open last week. He ended up finishing second while Hoffman finished tied for 35th. Palmer’s wife had a cancer spell last year, but it seems he can now focus on golf again. His form is a lot better than Hoffman so I am taking him with the low juice.

Jordan Spieth vs Jon Rahm for 3 units at -110. Spieth has not been his normal putting self lately and that may be part of the reason for the low juice. Rahm got 29th last week at the Farmers and Spieth did not play in it. Spieth got 9th in this tournament last year and Rahm got 16th. I just think Spieth will hit a gear on Saturday and Sunday that Rahm will not be able to match.

Zach Johnson vs J.B. Holmes for 3 units at -130. Zach finished 12th in this tournament last year and Holmes finished 24th. Johnson is 3rd in scoring average on the season and has been playing solid golf. Holmes finished top 5 last week, but was not playing good golf before that. Johnson is just a far more consistent golfer and had a 66 on this course last year.

Webb Simpson vs Daniel Berger for 2 units at -135. Webb lost the playoff of this tournament last year after shooting a 64 on Sunday. Berger did not do bad himself finishing 7th. Webb has one of the best sand save percentages on the tour and that is an area where Berger has struggled this season. Webb also has a higher greens in regulation percentage than Berger. Berger has been playing well this year, but I like the North Carolina native Webb here.

Byeong-Hun An vs Tony Finau for 2 unit at +175. This line is so good because Byeong-Hun played in Dubai last week. An got 6th in this tournament last year, while Finau did not even make the cut. An is one of the best drivers on the tour, while Finau can drive it far, but not accurately. I just think An is better at courses of this type even with his tough travel schedule.

Scott Piercy vs Harris English for 1 unit at +120. English finished 6 strokes better than Piercy at this tournament last year. English also finished top 10 last week at the Farmers.