81-79 on MLB up 13.88 units
11-4 on MLB Playoffs up 23.53 units
Brewers at +102 for 3 units. Jhoulys Chacin hasn’t allowed a run in 10 and a third in these playoffs. Jeffress, Knebel, and Hader will all be available out of the bullpen for the Brew Crew. Walker Buehler has allowed 9 runs in 12 innings this postseason. He was flawless at the end of the regular season, but he has slipped off of that form. Kershaw could pitch in this one if LA needs him. Brewers being at home helps. Every game the Brewers have lost has been close in this series. I just think they are the better team. Milwaukee’s bats woke up yesterday, that will continue.
80-79 on MLB up 10.93 units
10-4 on MLB Playoffs up 20.48 units
Brewers at -102 for 3 units. Hyun-Jin Ryu gave up 2 earned runs in 4 and a third last time out against Milwaukee. Wade Miley is starting his second game in a row after the Brewers hoodwinked the Dodgers in Game 5. The Brew Crew still lost however. Milwaukee’s bats have struggled, but a change of scenery may be just what they need. Milwaukee’s OBP is .48 points higher at home, their slugging his better, and their BA is .30 points higher at home this postseason. Dodgers starters have struggled this series with a 4.10 ERA. Brewers bullpen is always better after a day of rest.
80-78 on MLB up 12.93 units
10-3 on MLB Playoffs up 22.48 units
Astros -1.5 at +105 for 2 units. J.D. Martinez is the only player with his full name on the back of his jersey in this series. Also, he is the only player that hits Verlander well, but it is a small sample size (only 3 ABs). I just can’t bet against Verlander. The Astros got unlucky last night. Altuve, Bregman, and Gurriel all hit David Price well. Price has a 6.16 ERA over his 11 postseason starts. Kimbrel and the Red Sox bullpen has struggled recently. Houston has to win this one or their season is over. The Astros beat the Red Sox 7-2 in Fenway last time Verlander pitched and that was against Boston Ace Chris Sale. I am not going to over-analysis this one. Verlander > Price.
80-76 on MLB up 16.93 units
10-1 on MLB Playoffs up 26.48 units
The slumping Bellinger ended my unbeaten playoff run as the Brewers lost in extra innings. The game lasted over 5 hours. Machado scored the winning run, but in the 10th inning he clipped Aguilar’s leg. Yelich said it was “a dirty play by a dirty player.” Machado has also made some questionable slides on double play balls this series. Manny said after the game, “Everything that happens on the field stays on the field.” I’m not sure the Brewers feel the same way.
Brewers at +174 for 2 units. Kershaw said before his start tonight “I know what their strengths and weaknesses are. They obviously know mine.” If I am a Dodgers fan, that worries me. LA only got two hits off of Wade Miley last time out. Miley has been a revelation this season and he has turned it up in the postseason. Dodgers have only scored two runs in their past two games (22 innings worth of baseball). Milwaukee’s bats also struggled last night, but LA made some defensive plays that I doubt they can make every time. These games have been too close for me not to take the value of the underdog here.
Astros at -148 for 2 units. Big Papi cheering for Jackie Bradley Jr’s grand slam last night was a thing of beauty. I can’t be the only one that would rather have David Ortiz and A-Rod calling a game over Joe Buck. Osuna gave up the grand slam, but Keuchel gave up two runs in the first and Boston never looked back. Eovaldi has been pitching well in these playoffs.
Charlie Morton has given up 2 earned runs in his last 8 innings against the Red Sox, although he did get roughed up by them back in June. Rick Porcello has given up 6 earned runs in 12 innings this season vs Houston. The line has been moving towards favoring the Astros, but I would play this to about -160. Astros have to win this game. Their bats are too good not to put up more than 2 runs in this one. Also, Houston’s fielding was phenomenal in Game 3. Alex Bregman should win a gold glove for his performance alone in that game (I know that’s not how it works). On the flip side, Boston’s defense left a little to be desired. JBJ’s grand slam covered up a lot of small issues Boston had in the last game, they won’t be so lucky this time around.
79-75 on MLB up 16.39 units
9-0 on MLB Playoffs up 25.94 units
Betting against the Indians and Yankees has been profitable so far. Brewers got up on the Dodgers in the first behind a Braun RBI double and never looked back. Chacin pitched another gem. That slider of his is unpredictable and funky. Travis Shaw hit a 2 out triple in the 6th and then scored on a wild pitch to make it 2-0 Brewers. Orlando Arcia added a two run homer in the 7th for some added insurance.
The Dodgers put up a fight in the 9th with a Turner single and then Machado double, but then Jeffress got Bellinger to pop out, walked Puig, and then struck out Grandal and Dozier. This Brewers bullpen is just too good. I know they have struggled some this postseason, but I wouldn’t bet against them. Knebel and Hader might be the best two relievers in baseball.
Red Sox at +118 for 3 units. Dallas Keuchel gave up 5 earned runs the last time he faced the Red Sox. That was also the last time he faced a playoff team. Keuchel has 9.15 career ERA against Boston. Nathan Eovaldi gave up 4 earned runs the last time he played the Astros, but that was in June when he pitched for the Rays. Eovaldi is a better pitcher at this point in the season. Both of these teams can hit, but I like Boston to take the series lead tonight. Last time the Red Sox were tied 1-1 in a series, they beat the Yankees 16-1.
Brewers at +138 for 3 units. Rich Hill gave up 2 earned runs in 4 and a third his last time out. Rich Hill is a slightly worse pitcher at home. The Brewers have won the last 6 games that Gio Gonzalez has pitched in for them. Austin Barnes will get the start over Yasmani. Yasmani had too many errors last game. The LA crowd got louder for Yasmani’s errors than anything positive their team did. Brewers pitching is so damn good. If Milwaukee gets up in this game, they will win again.
77-75 on MLB up 11.37 units
Called both games last time out on Saturday. Verlander is just too good. Yuli Gurriel and the Astros took advantage of some wild pitches from Chris Sale. Justin Turner came in clutch for me in Game 2 of the NLCS. Wade Miley has been pitching great recently. He was one of my favorite pitchers to bet against for a couple regular seasons in a row there, and betting against him worked again last time out, but not as easily as I would have liked. Miley did everything he could for his team though giving up no runs in 5 and two thirds.
Brewers at +162 for 2 units. Christian Yelich and Josh Hader.
Brewers/Dodgers under 7.5 at -119 for 2 units. I like Chacin and and Buehler both a lot. They have been consistent and composed in every start they have had since September. Buehler did look a little vulnerable against the Braves when he walked the pitcher on 4 pitches and then gave up a grand slam to Acuna Jr. Milwaukee’s bullpen was tired for Game 2, but they will be at full strength tonight. There is too much value in the Brewers money line for me to pass it up. Chacin has not given up more than 3 earned runs since August 2nd against the Dodgers, but Buehler gave up more than 3 earned runs in his last start. Josh Hader should pitch in this one if the Brewers have a lead. If the Brewers lose this one, it will be because Chacin gets lit up by lefty batters like Bellinger and Muncy.. Two solid starting pitchers in a must win game makes me lean towards the under.
75-75 on MLB up 5.94 units
Astros at +103 for for 3 units. Justin Verlander time. Chris Sale is amazing, but I don’t bet against Justin Verlander in the playoffs. Both teams have hot bats and great starting pitching. Why not take the defending champs at plus money?
Dodgers at -128 for 3 units. Remember that time the Brewers lost a game? Me neither. LA won’t commit 4 errors again tonight. Hyun-Jin Ryu pitched 7 shutout innings last time out in Game 1 of the NLDS. Josh Hader won’t pitch in this one, which is good for the Dodgers. Wade Miley has not pitched more than 5 innings in a long time. Dodgers have to win tonight against Milwaukee’s depleted bullpen.
74-75 on MLB up 2.13 units
Been winning on these playoffs after a rocky end to the regular season for me. The Astros were just easy money. Did the MLB not want anybody to watch that series? Why were the games at like 1PM Friday, Saturday, and Monday?
Red Sox at +127 for 3 units. Brock Holt hit for the first ever postseason cycle last game and Severino hardly warmed up for his start. CC Sabathia gets the start for the Yankees in this one against Porcello. Why are these division series not 7 games? Can we knock 10 games off the regular season and have longer playoffs please MLB? Mookie Betts has a 1.050 OPS in 35 plate appearances against CC, but the rest of the Red Sox are not all that great against him. I just think Boston’s bats are on fire right now and they can overcome a poor history against CC. Aaron Hicks is back in the lineup for the Yankees and Brock Holt is out of the lineup for the Red Sox in this one. Angel Hernandez will be the home-plate umpire tonight after getting not 1, not 2, but 3 calls overturned at first base last night. He is awful, so that will add some “fun” for both teams tonight. Aaron Boone could have done a lot better with his pitching decisions in Game 3, but I don’t expect that to change overnight. Red Sox get their first series clinching win in the new Yankee Stadium tonight and their first since 2004 at the Yankees.
73-74 on the MLB up 3.47 units
Astros at -160 for 3 units. I said it last time, but it is still important I believe.. The Indians were actually under .500 outside of the horrendous AL Central. Also, the Astros had a +266 run differential on the season!! Gerrit Cole only allowed 19 home runs this season. The Indians did not have an extra base hit in Game 1. Carlos Carrasco had a 5.40 ERA against Houston this season, obviously not very good. This one seems like it should be closer to -200.
70-74 on the MLB down 9.55 units
Staying away from Red Sox-Yankees. I think the Red Sox will win, but -170 is too much juice against New York’s heavy hitters. I got burned betting against Stanton and Judge last time out, so I am not going to do it again. Big money today.
Astros at -152 for 8 units. Justin Verlander, Justin Verlander, and Justin Verlander. This September, he was 3-0 with a 1.09 ERA, 0.64 WHIP, and 50 strikeouts in 33 innings. Verlander loves this time of year. Marwin Gonzalez and Georger Springer hit Kluber better than anyone on Cleveland hits Verlander. Kluber has a 3.80 ERA on the road compared to sub 2.2 at home. The Indians were actually under .500 outside of the horrendous AL Central. Astros had a +266 run differential on the season!!
Brewers at -157 for 7 units. Brewers have the pitching advantage, especially since Chacin has already won in a high pressure situation against the Cubs. Yelich is the hottest man in baseball. Yelich, so hot right now, Yelich. I would just walk him every single time if I were the Rockies.
Dodgers at -212 for 7 units. Kershaw time baby. That is all.