9-5 on the NBA playoffs up 13.51 units
Can’t help but feel for KD. His surgery on his Kobe Bone/Achilles went well according to his own instagram. Steph and Klay balled out to get the Warriors the Game 5 win. Nick Nurse called what may have been the worse timeout I have ever seen (and people get mad at Roy Williams for never calling timeouts /s). The Raptors were up 6 and the crowd was going wild… but let’s kill the momentum with a couple minutes left. After that timeout it went Klay 3, Steph 3, Klay 3, and the Raptors were down 3.
Raptors +3 at -111 for 3 units. Kawhi didn’t play his best basketball in Game 5, except for a few minutes in the 4th. I think Leonard turns it up tonight. If Steph and Klay shoot even marginally worse than they did in Game 5 (12/25 from deep), I could see them losing a close one. Looney is still hurt, KD won’t be going 3-3 from deep in this game. I’ll take the points. Cousins was dominant after the KD injury, but then slipped back to Sacramento Kings Cousins in the 4th Quarter. It will be interesting to see which Cousins shows up in this one.
7-5 on the NBA playoffs up 3.55 units
Warriors +1.5 at -110 for 9 units. Raptors have worked Golden State over these past two games, but I think tonight is a lot closer of a game. Looney and Thompson should play better in their second game back from injury. Draymond Green, Steph, and the NBA want this series to go at least 6 games. KD may or may not be back.. but I think he will and this line will move to Warriors -1 or -2 once he is declared active. The Raptors used a 37 point third quarter to put away the Warriors 105-92 in Game 4. Golden State knows they have to come out stronger after halftime. Golden State hasn’t scored over 109 points in this series. I think they break that number in this one.
Klay Thompson of the Golden State Warriors will score 24 or more points at -110 for 2 units. I said it last game… If the Warriors want to win, Klay has to score. He did score and they lost. I like this prop even more if KD is out.
5-4 on the NBA playoffs down 0.51 units
Kevin Durant is still out, but Klay Thompson is back for the Warriors. Golden State missed Looney and Klay’s defense in Game 3.
Klay Thompson of the Golden State Warriors will score over 18.5 points at -112 for 5 units. Klay is going to have to score 20 if Golden State wants to win. Steph’s playoff career-high 47 points still had the Warriors losing by double digits. He needs help and Klay should supply it.
Danny Green of the Toronto Raptors will score over 9 points at -102 for 5 units. Danny has gone over this number 66.7% of the time in this series. Siakam, Leonard, and Gasol seem to be drawing the defense in the paint, which leads shooters like Green open. He runs like a dinosaur, but he shoots like John Wick.
Toronto Raptors +4½ at -110 for 5 units. Cousins, McKinnie, and Bell all got exposed on defense. Looney is great at guarding screens, unlike Cousins. Looney’s absence is noticed and he is questionable for Game 4. DeMarcus did not produce on offense to make up for his average defense in Game 3. Kawhi is in the zone.. if is on the court persona doesn’t prove this.. here is him not dapping Powell up and seemingly telling him the court is that way. Board man gets paid. The Frank Ocean’s Novacane lyrics come to mind when I think of Kawhi. “Zero emotion, muted emotion. Pitch corrected, computed emotion”.
Toronto is shooting well. Nick Nurse is coaching superbly. Kawhi is Kawhi. Pascal “I gave up being a preacher to dunk on fools” Siakam has been amazing. Danny Green and the former Shocker, Fred VanFleet, have been great as well. This Fred guy needs to have more kids. I think Game 4 will close like Game 2.. so I will take the points and the team that has been playing, well, more like a team.
4-3 on the NBA playoffs down 3.24 units
Largest Lead under 16.5 points for 3 units at -110.
The Raptors have made their first NBA Finals, which means my Hornets are the only Eastern conference team left to not make The Finals. I think this will be a close game. Kevin Durant dominated in the regular season game that went into overtime, but obviously he is still hurt. Draymond has assisted on over 25% of the Warriors made field goals. He has stepped up in KD’s absence. I think if the Warriors get down by double digits, they will turn it on.. and I think the Raptors will keep it close either way. I don’t see a blowout happening. Raptors are a lot better at home than on the road in these playoffs.. and the Warriors are the Warriors.
Hand up. I had Blazers +8. I am so confused by Portland’s lack of effort. Kanter, McCollum, and Damian played poorly. Even if you’re not shooting well, you have to step up on defense, like Klay Thompson does time and time again. Damian needs to stick like glue to Curry in transition. Damian would sag into THE PAINT on defense in transition against the best shooter of all-time. I’d rather him foul out with 6 landing zone fouls than what he did tonight. Also, Kanter and Collins would be in THE PAINT when Green would set a screen for Curry. Damian or C.J. would get screened and the big man was nowhere to be found. That is not how you guard Steph Curry. Curry was 9-15 from 3 because of Portland’s terrible defensive effort and gameplan.
I don’t care that Portland shot 25% from deep. I don’t care that every Portland starter, except for Aminu, had a negative assist/turnover ratio. I don’t even care that Portland had 17 more turnovers than they did in their last game. 17! I care that Portland had a chance to steal a game against a KD-less Warriors team and they seemed to not even try on defense. I don’t know if it was poor coaching or a Game 7 hangover, but they are going to get swept (again) if they don’t change. Warriors win 116-94 and take a 1-0 series lead. Golden State is 2.5-0 since KD got injured.
Writer: Sean Sloan
Sean’s record 1-1 down 0.29 units
The Stanley Cup Playoffs are proving to be as random as advertised. I want to think Carolina will win tonight. They have shown persistence in this postseason already, having been down 2-0 in the Washington series. I am not going to count them out, but I also am not entirely confident in this team getting it done tonight. I am feeling the under tonight, but more specifically Boston under 2.5, and it rides on the Canes making a goalie change. Curtis McElhinney is the expected starter tonight source. I think this will be a good change of pace for the Canes. McElhinney had a season SV% of .912 which would be way better than Mrazek’s .852 in Game 1 and .76 in Game 2.
I think a new look against the Bruins is needed. In Game 1 Boston had 4 goals on 27 shots and in Game 2 they had 6 goals on 25 shots. Game 1 was a lot closer than the scoreboard, and Game 2… not so much. I don’t see this team rolling over in front of their home crowd. I see the combination of the low volume shots Carolina has allowed and the different look in net holding the Bruins under 2.5 goals. Boston has not scored under 2.5 goals since Game 3 against Columbus, and have only scored under that total 5 times this postseason. On top of that they are averaging 3.4 goals per game in the playoffs. So I understand not tailing on this one…. I am still rolling with it though.
My Play: TT Boston Bruins u2.5 (-105) – 1U
– NBA –
Conference finals matchups are set, and I am ready! Tonight, I expect the Warriors to win, but if there is a chance for Portland in the series, they have strike while KD is out. I am going to be rooting hard for Portland, but am struggling with the spread, and honestly in a gun to my head decision I’d have to go with the Warriors -7.5. I think the best play tonight is the over 220.5. I like both these teams to put up points tonight. Throughout the playoffs Portland has scored an average of 110.25 PPG and allowed 110.75 PPG. On offense, the Warriors have averaged 117.67 PPG this postseason and have allowed 111.83 PPG. I see this one going over the 220.5 total. Using 220.5 as the benchmark for all the games played this postseason Portland would be 7-5 going over and Golden State would be 8-4 on the over. During the regular season these teams faced off 4 times and they split the 4 games at 2 wins a piece. If the O/U line were 220.5 in those 4 matchups, they would be 2-2 on the over as well. The average game total for these two teams in the regular season was 224.25.
My Play: Golden State Warriors/Portland Trail Blazers o220.5 (-110) – 1U
4-2 on the NBA playoffs up 0.76 units
Trail Blazers +8 at -115 for 5 units. Blazers went 1-1 at the Oracle this season. Kevin Durant is still out. Portland should control the paint and the free throw line as the Warriors are one of the worst teams in both of those categories. They are the best at other obvious categories like shooting and assists. The Blazers know they have to win one of these first two games if they want to move on to the Finals. Damian and CJ are 1-8 against the Warriors in the playoffs, but I think that record improves during this series. Taking the points tonight.
Writer: Sean Sloan
Sean’s record 1-0 up 0.71 units
This Toronto/Philly series has been wildly unpredictable. There have been two 5-point losses by each team in games 2 and 4, but between those close games were double-digit blowouts. The average margin of victory in this series is 16 points (largely due to the 36-point blowout by the Raptors in Game 5). The total for Game 6 is set at 212. Of the 5 games played the total has gone over 212 on one occurrence, which was Game 5 where the Raptors managed to score 125 points. Using 106 as the number each team would need to score in order to push, I looked at how many times each team scored more than 106. Toronto has scored more than 106 two times (Game 1 and Game 5), and Philly has scored more than 106 one time (Game 3). Every time either of these teams have scored more than 106 they were at home. The average total of the two games played in Philly thus far is 204. Philly, as mentioned earlier, is averaging 98 ppg this series and has cracked 100 points one time.
In Game 5, Philly looked defeated. I know Embiid wasn’t himself, but there was no fight. I think Toronto closes this series out tonight in a close game, but I am more confident in this total going under 212. The Drake curse is a real thing, there is absolutely no denying that. I think Toronto will have to get a little more confidence from the public built up before the Drake curse kicks in. I see Toronto getting heartbroken when all is said and done, but not just yet.
My play: Toronto Raptors/Philadelphia 76ers u212 – 1U
4-1 on the NBA playoffs up 4.76 units
Warriors +1 at -110 for 4 units. Durant has put his team on his back with some contributions from Iggy and Green.. tonight he gets some more help. Steph stops missing his layups, Klay shoots better, and the Warriors take a 3-1 series lead. Curry played horribly and the Warriors still took Houston to overtime in Game 3.
4-0 on the NBA playoffs up 9.26 units
Blazers at -150 for 4.5 units. The sequel to the quadruple-overtime game happens tonight some 40 hours after the last game finished. Will Barton stepped up big for Denver in 3 of the overtimes and the 4th Quarter. Him gaining some confidence gives the Nuggets an extra piece to play. Rodney Hood stepped up a little more than Barton did though. Hood took advantage of Jamal Murray in the post a few times and then Denver adjusted, which forced Hood to shoot some 3s. He was 2/3 from deep. Hood sat on the bench for almost an hour of realtime, but when he was called on he delivered.
Jokic has to be a little tired after playing 65 minutes in Game 3. The Joker’s 65 minutes were the most minutes ever played by a 7-footer in a playoff game. McCollum matched his career playoff high with 41 points, while playing a franchise playoff-record 60 minutes. Jamal Murray’s inability to guard bigger guys in the post, and smaller guys on the perimeter is a problem. C.J. and Damian are too quick for him, but Rodney Hood and others are too big for him. When Murray is on the court, Denver’s defense is worse. When Murray is off the court, Denver’s offense is worse. Quite the conundrum. Gary Harris plays great defense, but he hasn’t been able to shoot. Denver seems to lack two way players. Mason Plumlee and Monte Morris have not been playing well this postseason. They were solid in the regular season, but their decline has been noticed as the competition has ramped up. Plumlee has the second worse DRTG for Denver in the playoffs. Portland’s role players outplay Denver’s and Portland shoots better from deep for the 3-1 series lead.