Super Bowl LIII – Patriots/Rams in Atlanta

68-56-5 on the NFL up 27.53 units

Went ahead and put my season long bets into my record. There were 3 of them.. Saints to win NFC, Panthers to win NFC, and Patriots to win AFC. The Patriots won at +200. The Panthers and Saints bets lost but I still won 2 units. Woohoo. People were telling me I was dumb to bet on Patriots AFC at +200 instead of Super Bowl at +375, but the Super Bowl odds for the Pats went up to +750 after the Dolphins or Titans loss. Can’t remember which one. Anyway, onto the Super Bowl.

Patriots -1 at -120 for 7 units. The Rams allowed the most yards per carry in the NFL this season (5.1), and were a bottom ten rush defense. I want to bet against the Patriots, but I keep seeing Goff’s 4 interceptions against the Bears every time I try to. Bill Belichick has been sending Sean McVay flowers. Mind games go to the Pats. Also, Wade Phillips is really going to out-scheme Tom Brady? McVay is really going to out-scheme Belichick? It could happen, but I sincerely doubt it. New England’s playoff rushing offense will be too much for the Rams rushing defense. Gronk is healthy and will empty the chamber as it could be his last game. Patriots will be ready for everything after losing to the Philly Special last season.

Tom Brady to win Super Bowl MVP at -110 for 3 units. If the Patriots win (they will), then Tom will win MVP.

James White over 5.5 receptions at -167 for 4 units. This number could be 10.5 and I would still bet the over. No Ragrets. Not even a single letter.

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NFL Sunday – Chargers at Patriots and Eagles at Saints

67-53-5 on the NFL up 30.53 units

Colts had a chance to backdoor cover but they found another penalty. I have never seen a team with so many costly 5 yard penalties in a playoff game. That is pre-season shit. C’Mon Man to every Colt that committed a penalty. The scoreline looked like a big win for the Chiefs, but that game was close. Indy has a bright future, especially if they sign Bell…

The Rams pushed the over with their big 17 point second quarter. A healthy Gurley is fun to watch, but CJ Anderson has been great over the past few weeks as well. I’m not mad at my Panthers for releasing him. We have Christian McCaffrey. I’m not mad. I’m not mad. Anderson was just my fill-in for Mike Tolbert in my love life and now I realize how much I miss Mike Tolbert. 

Los Angeles Chargers +4 (+6.5) and New Orleans Saints -8 (+6.5) 2 Team (6.5 point) Teaser – risking 5 units to win 4 units. I haven’t lost a NFL teaser all season…. this is my second one. Let’s go down memory road, I bet the Chargers on the road as underdogs against the Seahawks and Browns earlier this year and won. Then, I bet on the Steelers at home against the Chargers, Chargers came back from down 2 touchdowns. Then, I bet on the Chiefs at home against the Chargers, Chargers came back from down 2 touchdowns and then they complete the 2-point conversion. Needless to say, I am done betting against the Chargers. Bill Belichick is 6-1 against coaches in their first postseason, but I am not betting against the Chargers. San Diego will keep it within double digits and possibly win.

Are the Saints the team to end Big Dick Nick’s amazing playoff run? Yes. New Orleans has allowed 17 points a game and has 16 takeaways since week 10. That’s good. Drew Brees has never lost a home playoff game. Kamara and Thomas have been relatively quiet towards the end of the season… they eat today.

NFL Saturday – Colts at Chiefs and Cowboys at Rams

66-52-5 on the NFL up 31.36 units

The Bears losing on a double doink shows the full power of Nick Foles. Unreal.

Colts +6 at -120 for 5 units. Chiefs went 2-4 against playoff teams this season. 10-0 against non-playoff teams. Colts are the hottest team in the NFL. Eric Ebron has 11 RedZone Tds this season. The Chiefs lead the league in touchdowns allowed to TEs. T.Y. Hilton will feast on this KC secondary, like he actually might get 220 yards. I’m not exaggerating. Colts will win the battle at the line of scrimmage. Indy has allowed the fewest sacks in the NFL this season. Luck with a clean pocket against the KC secondary should scare the shit out of KC fans. Mahomes is good, but Andy Reid’s clock management issues, Indy’s O-line, T.Y. Hilton, and Indy’s ability to stop the run win them this game.

Rams/Cowboys over 48 at -115 for 5 units. Sean McVay likes points. You need more info? The Rams scored 30+ points in 12 games this season (T-most in NFL). LA’s home games average over 65 points a game this season. Dallas does have a good defense, but life is too short to bet unders.

The National Championship – Bama/Clemson

55-39 on College Football in 2018 up 44.85 units

16-10 on Bowls up 15.48 units

Alabama -5 at -120 for 5 units. Bama’s defensive line has an advantage over the Clemson offensive line. Tua should be able to find some gaps in Clemson’s secondary as well. Clemson’s defensive line is great, but so is Mississippi State’s, who Alabama dominated earlier this season. Bama has great players at every level on both sides of the ball. Josh Jacobs has turned it on for Bama here at the end of the year. Clemson hasn’t had a tough game since they came back against Syracuse in September. Bama is too much of a step up for them tonight.

Alabama/Clemson under 57 for 2 units. Hot take : A redzone turnover and quite a few punts push the under.

 

NFL Sunday – Playoff Edition

66-50-5 on the NFL up 37.36 units

Ravens at -147 for 3 units. Phil Rivers has 6 interceptions in his last 3 games. Lamar Jackson averages 80 yards rushing a game as a starter. Ravens are great at covering receivers that like to line up out wide like Keenan Allen. Chargers ended the season poorly, while Baltimore ended the season trending up. Ravens beat the Chargers 22-10 in California. I don’t see how the Chargers just get better at stopping the run a few weeks later and a few time zones over. Gus Edwards and Lamar Jackson are tough to stop. Ravens D steps up and gets the win.

Bears at -270 for 3 units. Da Bears. Foles has the experience over Mitch, but Mitch can run. The Bears allowed the fewest rushing yards the ever have in a 16-game season this year. Since Week 15, Mitchell Trubisky has the highest completion % in the NFL. Bears have won 9 of their last 10. Chicago’s defense should control the game. I want to bet the spread, but Foles and the Alshon Jeffrey revenge game have me second guessing the Bears -7.

NFL PLAYOFFS ARE HERE AHHHHHHHH

65-47-5 on the NFL regular season up 41.77 units

Beer, chili, and winning bets on the NFL playoffs. It doesn’t get better!

Colts/Texans over 47 at -130 for 3 units. DeAndre Hopkins had 115 catches this season and no drops. Hopkins can’t be stopped. T.Y. Hilton averaged 157 yards a game against the Texans this season. The Texans have to focus on limiting Hilton, which could leave room for Ebron, Mack, and Hines to have big days. These two teams scored a total of 71 and 45 points in their two previous meetings this season.

Colts +1 at +103 for 3 units. Watson was sacked 62 times this season. Luck was only sacked 18 times. Indy completes a silly good 49% of their 3rd downs. Houston’s pass defense is the worst in the league. Indy’s ability to protect and let Luck find the gaps in that bad secondary will win Indy this game. Indy wins 31-21.

Seahawks at +117 for 3 units. You can bet on Dak and Jason Garrett… I’m not. Elliot is good, but Seattle actually has the best rushing attack in the league. Doug Baldwin and Tyler Lockett step up here as well. Dallas allows teams to complete over 40% of their 3rd downs. Seattle’s ability to run the ball will put them in good second and third down situations. Russell Wilson should be able to take advantage of the young Dallas linebackers with some QB runs.

Parlay all 3 risking 1.5 units to win 10.16 units. Feeling lucky.

FA Cup – Tottenham at Tranmere and La Liga

92-78-9 on Soccer in 2018 up 8.17 units

2-1 on Soccer in 2019 up 2.35 units 

Tottenham Hotspur -1.5 at -185 for 4 units. Tottenham has progressed 17 of 18 times against lower league competition in this tournament. Last time Tottenham played Tranmere they won 4-0. The time before… Tottenham won 4-0. Prenton Park is where the Liverpool Reserves play, but it is Tranmere’s home. Mauricio Pochettino has led his team to a 47-11 scoreline against lower league opponents in this competition since he was appointed Tottenham manager. Tottenham has scored first and in the first half of 5 of their past 6 matches. There could be some rotation for Tottenham, getting younger players some action, but if the game is still close after halftime… I expect Tottenham to play some super subs and put the game away.

Leganes ML at +331 for 1 unit. Leganes/Espanyol draw at +228 for 1 unit. Espanyol has lost 6 league games in a row, but are still ahead of Leganes in the table. Leganes has not lost in their past 7 La Liga matches. Ruben Perez is suspended again for cards for Leganes. El Zhar and Guido Carrillo have been solid for Leganes this season. Fading the coldest team in Europe.. if Espanyol does turn it around this game, I won’t be too mad.

New Year’s Day College Football

53-37 on College Football in 2018 up 44.48 units

14-8 on Bowls up 15.11 units

Mississippi St. -7 at -102 for 3 units. Iowa hasn’t beat a ranked opponent all year. Mississippi State allows only 12 points a game. Bulldog players opted to play instead of sit out for the draft. They will dominate this game.

LSU -7 at -132 for 2 units. I want UCF to win, but the numbers say they won’t.

Ohio State -7 at +112 for 2 units. Urban Meyer retirement game (again). He doesn’t want to be a distraction, but hey everyone I”m retiring after this game look at me. Haskins does enough in this one.

Georgia/Texas under 59 for 4 units. I think this game has a similar game-script to the Clemson-Notre Dame game. I just can’t see Texas getting many points against this Georgia defense. Texas has played in nine one-possession games this season.. Georgia does have some players skipping this game for the draft, like the Jim Thorpe Award winner, Deandre Baker. I want to bet Georgia -12, but Texas has the ability to keep games close. I think the under is the smart play here.

End of the Year College Football

52-36 on College Football in 2018 up 44.10 units

13-7 on Bowls up 14.73 units

Vegas dared us to take the over with Tua and Kyler and we did and won. Clemson defense suffocated Notre Dame’s young QB like we knew they would. Florida steamrolled Michigan… classic case of Michigan not playing for anything and Florida playing for a good start to next season. Back at it today…

Cincy -6 at -122 for 3 units. On a rainy windy day, I am going to side with the team that is better at running the ball. Virginia Tech barely snuck into a bowl game. VT lost to Old Dominion this season… VT allows over 450 yards a game… not good. The AAC only has won bowl win so far… Cincy gets them 2 today.

Stanford/Texas A&M parlay risking 3 units to win 3.38 units. No Germaine Pratt for NCSU. Jace Sternberger, Quartney Davis, and Kendrick Rogers will provide matchup problems for NC State. Trayveon Williams had over 1,500 yard rushing this year and the Aggies will use him to keep Ryan Finley off the field.

Pat Narduzzi has been the head coach of Pittsburgh since 2014 and has one win over a Power-5 team not in the ACC (Penn State). Kenny Pickett has struggled against stiffer competition for Pittsburgh. Stanford will pressure him. The Cardinals average almost 3 sacks a game and they will be able to pressure Pickett.

NFL Week 17

62-47-5 on the NFL up 33.61 units

Colts at -213 for 5 units. No Mariota. Colts have allowed the fewest sacks in the NFL. Andrew Luck is 10-0 vs the Titans. Colts point differential is +101 over their past 10 games.

Eagles at -255 for 5 units. Philly has to win to make the playoffs pretty much. Alshon Jeffrey is playing better with Foles at Qb. Washington struggles getting off the field on 3rd down. Philly will be able to sustain drives. Washington is done.

Pats -14 at -104 for 4 units. Jets have quit on their coach. Sony Michel has averaged 73.4 rush YPG this season. Pretty damn good for a rookie. James White has gone over 1,000 total yards this season. Tom Brady weirdly doesn’t have a 4 td game this season, he could get one today. NYJ allows too many sacks and they suck at third down conversions (32%). Pats should take care of business.