Europa League Second Leg Predictions

92-78-9 on Soccer in 2018 up 8.17 units

26-20-6 on Soccer in 2019 down 9.59 units

Not losing 3 days in a row. I won’t have it. All 3 of these teams should be more heavily favored IMO.

Frankfurt -1 at +189 for 3 units.

Frankfurt +0 at -212 for 5 units. Frankfurt have drawn 5 matches in a row against solid competition. Frankfurt were up a man almost all of last game against Shakthar and only pulled out the draw. Frankfurt did give up a pk. The game will play out differently in Germany. Luke Jovic and Sebastien Haller should do enough to secure the win for Frankfurt. I like the -1 because if Frankfurt gets up, Shakhtar will send more men forward, leading to a possible 2 or 3 goal win for the Germans.

Real Betis at -169 for 6 units. Betis dominated the first leg away, but only tied the game 3-3. Rennes looked poor in their only game since then. Betis is the better team and that should show up in Sevilla tonight. Giovani Lo Celso has 11 goals this season for Betis and the “Mexican Messi” Lainez has been coming into form.

Bayern Leverkusen at -234 for 5 units. Leverkusen have only lost 3 matches since the beginning of December. ‘Die Werkself’ are in great attacking form. Krasnodar have lost the last 3 times they have traveled to Germany. Havertz, Wendell, Brandt, Volland, and Bailey will be too much offense for Krasnodar.

Advertisements

Juventus at Atletico in Champions League and Lazio at Sevilla in Europa League

92-78-9 on Soccer in 2018 up 8.17 units

26-20-6 on Soccer in 2019 up 1.41 units

Lazio/Sevilla over 2.5 at -115 for 6 units. Sevilla have never lost a two-legged UEFA affair when they won the first leg away. Lazio have to score here if they want to move on after losing at home 1-0 last week. Ciro Immobile should be healthy enough to play in this one. Immobile had a few goals in his short stint for Sevilla back in 15/16. Lazio are banged up, but they have to attack in this one. Sevilla are excellent at counter-attacking. Wober and Banega are out due to card accumulation for Sevilla, but that should only help the over. This should be an open game.

Juventus +0.5 at -225 for 5 units. The over/under is set at 1.5. That number is so low they are daring us to take the over. I just don’t bet against Ronaldo in the Champions League. It is that simple for me.

Champions League Preview – Barcelona at Lyon and Bayern Munich at Liverpool

92-78-9 on Soccer in 2018 up 8.17 units

25-19-6 on Soccer in 2019 down 1.04 units

Bayern Munich +0.5 at -124 for 8 units. Liverpool have been declining in form over the past month, which is understandable when you consider the high level they were playing at to start the season. Bayern started this season out slow, but they have been picking it up over the past 3 months. Liverpool has wins against Brighton, Crystal Palace, and Bournemouth this year. They have lost or drawn against Man City, Wolves, Leicester, and West Ham. Bayern have lost to only Leverkusen and Dortmund since October.

Lewandowski is the top scorer in this competition with 8 goals. Van Dijk is out due to yellow card accumulation. Robert Lewandowski should be able to find some space without one of the best defenders in the World playing. Lovren is out too, which means Fabinho may have to step up defensively. I worry about Bayern at the back too. Salah and Mane are too nice, but Lewandowski on Fabinho is the biggest mismatch. I will side with the team with the biggest advantage and that is in better form to tie or win.

Barcelona at -132 for 3 units. Lyon and Barcelona were unbeaten in the group stages. Lyon has won games against Man City and PSG this season. They are no slouches. No Nabil Fekir in the lineup for Lyon sadly. Suarez should be back in the lineup for Barca. Messi is still Messi. If Lyon was at full-strength, I would prolly stay away, but Barca has the attacking advantage and the experience to see this one through.

European Soccer Previews – Monday February 18th

92-78-9 on Soccer in 2018 up 8.17 units

23-16-6 on Soccer in 2019 up 7.45 units

Athletic Bilbao/Huesca over 2 at -142 for 4 units.

Athletic Bilbao +0 at -170 for 3 units. Dani Garcia and de Marcos are out for Bilbao due to card accumulation. Inaki Williams has been impressive all season for Bilbao in the games I have watched. He has 7 La Liga goals this season. Huesca’s last 4 home games have gone over this number. There have been 4 goals scored in each of the past 3 H2Hs. Huesca has been playing better of late, but Bilbao’s Munian and Williams will be the difference in the game.

Roma at -235 for 3 units. Palacio is out for Bologna. Roma lost 2-0 to Bologna earlier in the season. El Shaarawy and Dzeko are rounding into some nice form. Roma have won 3 of the last 4 against Bologna at Stadio Olimpico. They get revenge today.

Dortmund/Nurnberg over 2.5 at -145 for 4 units.

Dortmund -1 at -136 for 3 units. Will Dortmund be able to defend crosses today??? Dortmund has allowed 6 goals off of crosses in their last two games…. Dortmund gets back at track today. Dortmund scored 7 goals the last time they met last-placed Nurnberg. Jadon Sancho will continue to be the main offensive weapon for Dortmund with Reus out. This is a good spot for Paco Alcacer to get going again (assuming he plays with his shoulder injury).

Soccer Saturday – Nantes at Monaco

92-78-9 on Soccer in 2018 up 8.17 units

22-15-6 on Soccer in 2019 up 4.95 units

Monaco at -120 for 3 units. Leonardo Jardim has done a slightly better job than Henry as the boss of Monaco. Jardim is 1-1-1 as Monaco’s boss. Monaco leaves the relegation zone with a win today. Nantes only have 4 goals in their past 5 league games and only 9 goals in 12 away games this season. Falcao has scored in his last two games against Nantes. Rony Lopes likes scoring against Nantes as well. Cesc Fabregas should be able to pull the strings. Send it.

Frosinone at Juventus and Bayern Munich at Augsburg

92-78-9 on Soccer in 2018 up 8.17 units

21-15-6 on Soccer in 2019 up 3.51 units

Bayern Munich/Juventus -2 Parlay risking 5 units to win 5.44 units.

Bayern Munich -1.5 at -170 for 4 units. Love this spot today. Bayern and Juve are tuning up for their upcoming Champions League matches against Liverpool and Atletico Madrid respectively. Bayern are only 5 points behind Dortmund after Dortmund’s back 2 back draws in the Bundesliga. Augsburg have only two wins at home this season. Bayern are the best away team in the league with 8 away wins.

Lewandowski has 18 goals in 13 games against Augsburg. Kimmich has an impressive 8 assists this Bundesliga season. I think Bayern should play him at midfield rather than right back, but the fact that Niko Kovač started him at both this season shows his ability. James Rodriquez has 3.4 key plays per 90 minutes. That is damn good. Bayern should roll. Bayern presses more than any team in the Bundesliga, Augsburg struggles against the press… you get it.

Frosinone are a relegation candidate. They are second-to-last in Serie A. Juve is 11 points clear of second-place Napoli. Mario Mandzukic and Ronaldo are more than capable of scoring against this Frosinone team. Juve won 2-0 the last time they met, but both goals were scored after the 80th minute. They won’t leave it so late this time. Ronaldo make Giorgio Chiellini proud.

UEFA Europa League Round of 32 – Leg 1 of 2 Predictions and Champions League Recap

92-78-9 on Soccer in 2018 up 8.17 units

15-14-5 on Soccer in 2019 down 4.78 units

Huge Card today. Not sitting on the bench with this many exciting games happening. My largest win of the season came yesterday on Real Madrid (12 units). The first ever VAR decision went Real Madrid’s way. Typical in the tournament they have won 4 of the past 5 years. It was prolly the right call, but when not a single Real Madrid player appeals for it… seems like VAR is doing too much. Courtois made a great save right before this error so I wouldn’t go crucifying him. Benzema’s goal was a thing of clinical class. The hate boner against Real is large, but can’t deny they know how to win tournament games. They do it over and over and over..

Sergio Ramos got a late yellow card on purpose so he will be out the next game, but not the next round. 4-D Chess by one of the best defenders in the World (assuming they can beat Ajax at home). Ramos did snitch on himself, so he may receive a 2 game ban for trying to “cheat” the system. Time will tell. Ajax deserved more than a 2-1 loss, but they lacked the precision in the final third. If they can keep the majority of these young players and find a solid striker, this Ajax team could make a Champions League Quarterfinal soon.

I wanted to bet on Dortmund because Kane and Alli were out, but they gave up 3 goals off of crosses in the final 20 minutes against Hoffenheim at home over the weekend. They gave up 3 more goals off of crosses against Tottenham at home. That’s 6 goals off of crosses conceded in their past two games for the mathematically challenged. Son’s goal. Vertonghen’s goal. Llorente’s goal. C’mon Dortmund, I want to cheer for you because you have a great American, but that is tough to watch over and over. Congrats to Tottenham. If Kane gets healthy and hot, they could actually make a serious run in this tournament.

Onto today’s card:

Eintracht Frankfurt/Shakhtar Donetsk over 2 at -241 for 7 units.
Frankfurt +0.5 at -151 for 4 units. If you know me know this ain’t my feng shui
Certified everywhere, ain’t gotta print my resume….. Nah but really if you’ve been reading me you know I love Luka Jovic. He is a scoring machine for Frankfurt. Jovic has 5 goals in his 6 Europa League games this season. Shakhtar’s last 6 competitive European games have all seen 2 or more goals (1-1 Lyon draw was the only one with only 2 goals). Man City scored 6 on them. Shakhtar may be disappointed to drop out of the Champions League, but Frankfurt is a terrible matchup for them IMO. Shakhtar struggles against offensive-minded teams like Frankfurt. Frankfurt won all 6 of their Europa League group stage games. Frankfurt’s current coach Adi Hütter, and Paulo Fonseca of Shakhtar have met before in a two-legged affair that ended 6-4 on aggregate. There will be goals. Also, Frankfurt’s only loss this calendar year was to Bayern (not counting the club friendly match against Flamengo).
Bayern Leverkusen +0 at -203 for 5 units. Krasnodar has conceded in their last 5 Europa League home games. Leverkusen have scored 12 goals in their past 4 games. Bellarabi, Brandt, Havertz, and Volland are all in-form for Leverkusen. Krasnodar has not lost at home since October, but this is the best team they will have faced since then besides Sevilla. Should be a solid-watch, but I am siding with the team with more attacking options.
Valencia +0 at -183 for 3 units. You know how Jay Rock (not the Trailer Park Boys version) has that Win Win Win Win song? Well Valencia hasn’t heard it because all they do is tie. Valencia are the more talented side and should be favored by more IMO. Want to bet their ML because I do think they win, but you have to hedge on the draw a little with this defensive-minded Valencia team.
Sevilla +0.5 at -163 for 2 units.
Sevilla/Lazio over 2 at -186 for 3 units. This Sevilla team doesn’t play a 3-5-2 to sit back. They will go for an away goal or two in this one, which could leave them open at the back. Either way, there will be at least two goals in this one. Ciro Immobile has 10 goals at home this season. Ben Yedder has 19 goals in all comps this season. Sevilla looked terrible against Eibar in the first half over the weekend and then went down a man in the second half already down 2-0. That riled Sevilla up though, and they went on to tie 2-2. If they play with the same intensity they played with after that red card, they will win and this will go over. Sevilla’s struggles on the road keep me from betting their ML, but I do like them to win or draw.
Real Betis +0.5 at -211 for 3 units. The Green team from Sevilla go up against Rennes in their Europa League matchup. Betis only gave up 2 goals in their group stage matches. Lowest in the Europa. Betis hasn’t won an away match in about two months, but they have more talent than Rennes. Lo Celso has 3 goals in his last 4 in this tournament for Betis. Joaquin can use his experience to find the pass or goal that wins this bet.
FC Internazionale at -141 for 2 units. Rapid Vienna and Inter meet for the first time today. Icardi is not in the squad and is no longer the captain. Nainggolan, Perisic, Martinez, and Politano can all score goals though. Samir Handanovic is the new captain. Inter should be able to boss the midfield and come away with the win.

Champions League – Real Madrid at Ajax and Tottenham at Dortmund

92-78-9 on Soccer in 2018 up 8.17 units

14-14-5 on Soccer in 2019 down 16.78 units

Real Madrid at -103 for 12 units. Ajax has lost two of their last 3 games in the Eredivisie. Real Madrid, on the other hand, have won 6 of 7 in all comps. The one they didn’t win was a draw against Barcelona at the Camp Nou. Real Madrid have won this tournament 4 of the past 5 years and have made 16 straight round of 16s. This is Ajax’s first round of 16 appearance in 13 years.

Gareth Bale now has 100 goals for Real, but his backup, Vinicius Junior, might be the better attacking option nowadays. Madrid should win the midfield-battle with Kroos, Modric, and Casemiro. Reguilon should start over Marcelo. Honestly, I was going to take the over as I see Real winning 3-1 or 2-1; however, the moneyline is better value. Real Madrid have the experience, the history, the Ballon d’Or winner, and are in-form.

Dortmund/Tottenham No Kane, Davies, Alli, or Danny Rose for Tottenham. Dortmund are winless in their last 3 games. Dortmund was up 3-0 on Hoffenheim late in the game, then they gave up 3 goals off of crosses. Tottenham can score off of crosses and set pieces with Eriksen and Llorente. One team is out-of-form and one team is missing key players. I want to bet the over, but I could see Mauricio Pochettino and Tottenham slowing the game down. Tottenham could get 1-0 type victory and attack more in the second leg once Kane and Alli are back. I could also see Dortmund scoring first and then trying to add to it and take advantage of Tottenham’s injuries. No Play.

Image: Reuters 

Champions League – PSG at Manchester United and Porto at Roma

92-78-9 on Soccer in 2018 up 8.17 units

13-13-5 on Soccer in 2019 down 10.08 units

Well since I last wrote about soccer, Manchester City beat Chelsea 6-0, Real Madrid beat Atletico 3-1, Sevilla came back from a red card 2-0 deficit to tie Eibar, Barcelona tied Bilbao 0-0, Tottenham beat Leicester 3-1, and Dortmund blew a 3-0 lead to tie Hoffenheim 3-3. The Dortmund loss is the most shocking. I would be up about 5 units if they won that game; however, Reus and Delaney’s absences were felt. Once the game started to slip away, Reus could have been used to add some leadership and steady the game. Reus and Kane will be out for Tottenham/Dortmund tomorrow.

Manchester United +0 at -161 for 10 units. No Cavani or Neymar for PSG. Manchester United haven’t lost at home under caretaker boss Ole Gunnar Solskjær. Pogba should be able to dominate the midfield. Kylian Mbappe is amazing, but the twenty-year-old-World-Cup-winner may have too much of a burden in this one without Cavani or Neymar. Rashford rested over the weekend, so he should come out firing. Di Maria going up against his old club here. Draxler, Di Maria, and Mbappe are not a bad front 3, but Neymar and Cavani are World Class. Manchester United has the fitter, more in-form team, and they are at home. Not going to overthink this one.

Roma at +110 for 3 units. Dzeko will step up in this big game. Porto dominated their weak group, but playing at Roma will be the toughest opponent they have played in a while. Roma only lost one game at home in the group stage and that was to Real Madrid. El Shaarawy and Dzeko both scored in Roma’s 3-0 win against Chievo over the weekend. They tuned up well for this match and I expect them to get the win in Rome.

 

 

 

 

Soccer Saturday – Ole Gunnar Solskjær Gets Another Win, Liverpool Retakes 1st Place, The Madrid Derby Takes Place, and Dortmund Keeps Dominating Germany

92-78-9 on Soccer in 2018 up 8.17 units

10-11-4 on Soccer in 2019 down 15.04 units

Pushed my last 3 big soccer plays. Gotta turn it around. Big card today.

Manchester United at -166 for 7 units. Fulham didn’t have a shot on target in their last game against Crystal Palace. Fulham have conceded 2 or more goals in their last 5 premier league matches. Manchester United haven’t lost since Ole Gunnar Solskjær was appointed caretaker. In Rashford I trust.

West Ham/Crystal Palace over 2 at -211 for 3 units. Felipe Anderson and Zaha will see that this pushes at the very least. If Anderson keeps playing like he has this calendar year, he will be on the Brazilian national team soon…

Real Madrid/Atletico Madrid over 2 at -176 for 3 units. Benzema has 6 goals and an assists in his last 6 matches. Griezmann is the same scoring machine this season that he has been for the past few years. Only 1 of the last 4 meetings between these two has gone over this number, but I like this spot today. If Marcelo starts, I like this bet even more. Marcelo’s offense doesn’t make up for his lack of effort on defense anymore. There have been over 6 yellow cards a game in the last 6 meeting between these two. That kind of physical game means free-kicks and a pk hopefully. I want to bet on Real, but I don’t like Ronaldo and he used to play for them so I am going with the over.

Eintracht Frankfurt +1 at -190 for 4 units. I know I’m down a lot in soccer, which my bank account and followers hate, but Leipzig and Frankfurt have been keeping me afloat. Now they play each other. Leipzig have not beat Frankfurt by 2 or more since January of 2017. Luka Jovic leads the Bundesliga with 14 goals for Frankfurt. If Luke Jovic doesn’t play. Stay away. 

Dortmund at -137 for 2 units. Dortmund haven’t lost in their last 10 home games. Hoffenheim hasn’t beat a top team in a while either. Dortmund can push their lead over Bayern to 10 points with a win.

Parlay all these plus PSG and Liverpool for 1.1 units to win 15.63 units. Liverpool and PSG are both favored by 2 goals. They won’t be the ones to lose this parlay. Feeling lucky. It’s not called gambling for nothing.

Photo Source: Getty Images