ATP Rotterdam Quarterfinals

91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

25-20 on tennis in 2019 down 16.04 units

Daniil Medvedev at -170 for 10 units. Biggest unit play on tennis in a while. Medvedev and Tsonga have already met once this year and Medvedev won in straight sets. The Russian #1 Daniil Medvedev has won six matches in a row. Tsonga has won seven matches in a row. Honest. This will be a fun match to watch. How do I say it best? The Russian is going to win. I love Tsonga’s form and I think he will make a lot of noise this year, but Medvedev is not a good matchup for him at this point in time.

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Poor Vegas = Rich Public

The betting public took Vegas this weekend. The big favorites, Chiefs, Panthers, Patriots, Bears, and Vikings all covered. The Texans, Steelers, and Saints won as short dawgs. Big favorites in college football like Alabama, Georgia, Clemson, Michigan State, and Michigan all covered as well. Real shame for Vegas, but don’t feel too bad Vegas Sportsbooks won an all-time high $53.6 million in the month of September. The damage was not limited to American Football — Manchester City, Barcelona, Chelsea, Manchester United, Tottenham, Dortmund, and Real Madrid all won their matches. The only big European clubs that lost were Atletico Madrid and a Bayern team that has been out of form all year.

If you place a lot of parlays and didn’t win one this weekend, you may want to stop placing parlays. I went 10-0 across college football and the NFL this weekend. Feels real good. To the guy commenting on my posts with the email yourpickssuck@yousuck.com, you entertain me. Thanks for the support. Let’s continue to win.

MLB World Series Game 1

81-80 on MLB up 10.88 units

11-5 on MLB Playoffs up 20.53 units

Dodgers at +155 for 2 units. Kershaw has been solid this postseason. Manny Machado and Freese hit Chris Sale well. Machado is 6-19 with a homer against him. JD Martinez hits Kershaw well, but it is a small sample size. Kimbrel worries me a little for Boston, he has just sneaked by in his recent saves. Bellinger and Puig have been batting better recently than they were at the start of the playoffs. If this bet wins, I may place a wager on the Red Sox to win the World Series at better value than it is right now. Kershaw at +155 is too good to pass up.

MLB Playoffs October 8th

74-74 on MLB up 5.13 units

Yankees -1.5 at +113 for 3 units. This is Boston’s first postseason trip to the “new” Yankee stadium. Severino was dealing last time out. Nathan Eovaldi gets the start for the Red Sox. It will be Eovaldi’s first postseason start – the Yankee Stadium pressure will get to him. Nathan said “it’s definitely probably the most important game I’ve ever pitched in.” Yankees definitely probably win this game by more than 2. Both teams have great bats and bullpens, but I am going to side with the home field advantage and the better starting pitcher.

Tennis – Wimbledon July 4th

33-13-2 on tennis up 14.33 units

John Isner at -358 for 4 units. Isner has never lost to Bemelmans in his career. Also, Isner is better than he was back when he beat Bemelmans. Ruben has a chance on grass, but Isner should be able to overpower him.

Stefanos Tsitsipas at -147 for 1 unit. Neither player here is great on grass. I am going to take the Greek over the American. I think Stefanos has the higher ceiling as a player so I will take him here today. Donaldson won the only previous meeting, but Tsitsipas looked pretty good in his win against Barrere.

Benoit Paire +5 at -125 for 4 units. Shapovalov won a close 3 set encounter the last time these two met. Paire looked great on grass yesterday and I think he can keep this one close. 5 games is just too many for me to pass up.

 

Tennis – Wimbledon June 28th

31-13-2 on tennis up 11.83 units

Stephane Robert at -166 for 2 units. Robert has looked good in qualifications matches so far and I expect that to continue. Robert’s opponent, Luca Vanni has not looked as good in my opinion. Neither one of these players excels on grass, so I will take the player who is in better form. I am looking forward for this tournament to “actually” start. Federer is the easy favorite for the men, while Halep and Serena Williams are the favorites for the women. Strong serves usually play well at Wimbledon, and I expect that to be the case again this year.

World Cup June 28th

4-5-1 on the World Cup down 0.99 units

Colombia at -122 for 4 units. They burned me last time out, but James Rodriquez will redeem me and himself after Colombia’s Japan loss. Cuadrado and Falcao have been solid so far this tournament. I just think Colombia is better than Senegal. Mane has great pace and is a great forward, but I think Colombia can do enough to contain him. Los Cafeteros have to win here and I think they will. Poland had no answers for Colombia… Senegal won’t have enough answers either.

 

World Cup June 19th

4-4-1 on the World Cup up 2.01 units

Colombia -146 for 3 units. Colombia won 4-1 the last time they met Japan in the World Cup. James Rodriquez always seems to shine in these World Cup matches. Ospina and Falcao bring in some more quality to this Colombian side. I just think Colombia has more talent and depth so I will take them to win their opening game.

Golf – FedEx St. Jude Classic

16-14-4 on golf in 2018 up 10.79 units

Dustin Johnson over Stenson at -140 for 3 units. Johnson has finished in the top 20 in the past 4 tournaments. He has a higher ceiling than Stenson. I think he should be about -180 vs Stenson so I will take the perceived value.

Phil Mickelson over Tony Finau at -105 for 4 units. Finau played better last week, but he is still too inconsistent for me this season. This is solid value. Phil played better last week than he has in a while. I expect Phil to be focused more than usual in these tournaments leading up to the U.S. Open (which he has never won).

Brooks Koepka over Stenson at +125 for 3 units. Koepka loves this course. At plus money, I have to bite..

 

Tennis June 1st – French Open

26-11-1 on tennis up 10.63 units

Roland-Garros – 2018 French Open

Alexander Zverev to win the tournament at +700 for 1 unit.

Dominic Thiem to win the tournament at +1250 for 1 unit. Just a gut feeling that Nadal does not win this tournament. Thiem has played well against Nadal and Zverev has been hot. These plays are not for the faint-hearted.

Thiem -8 for 1 unit. Thiem looked solid last round. These two have never met before, but I think Thiem can wear Berrenttini down.

Goffin -260 for 2 units.

Goffin -5 at -108 for 4 units. Monfils is physically and mentally weak. Goffin is mentally strong and won’t give Monfils easy points. Fognini and Monfils are my favorite players on the tour, but Monfils loses here.