ATP Rotterdam Semi-finals

91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

26-20 on tennis in 2019 down 10.16 units

Kei Nishikori at -196 for 6 units. Stan Wawrinka seems to be healthy, which is good for tennis. I am a Wawrinka fan, but Nishikori has started the year on a high note. Wawrinka leads the H2H 5-4. The last 3 meetings have all ended in straight sets with Nishikori winning two of them. Kei has gone 11-1 this calendar year. The World #7’s return game will be too much for Wawrinka.

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ATP Rotterdam Round 1 Predictions Continued

91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

25-20 on tennis in 2019 down 9.04 units

Medvedev/Tsitsipas/Tsonga Parlay risking 7 units to win 5.24 units. Medvedev won Sophia last week, while only dropping one set in the tournament. Chardy was in-form when he lost to the Russian in straight sets at ATP London in 2018. Now it is Medvedev who is in-form. Medvedev has eaten players with big serves, like Chardy, alive of late. Daniil Medvedev struggles against players that can out-rally and out-return him.. Chardy is not that player.

Stefanos Tsitsipas goes up against Damir Dzumhur. Dzumhur has no form at the moment, but he does lead the H2H 2-1. Damir hasn’t won a match this season. Stefanos has won against Roger Federer this season. Tsitsipas lost to the in-form Monfils in a close straight set match last week. The Greek has struggled to convert break points against Dzumhur in the past, but today is the best chance he will get to capitalize on some break points against Dzumhur.

Tsonga plays Thomas Fabbiano in the first round. Tsonga won this tournament in 2017. Also, Tsonga won in Montpellier last week. That is a great result considering Montpellier is where the Frenchman got hurt last season. As long as Tsonga is not too tired from playing 5 matches last week, he will win this one with the kind of form he is in.

ATP Rotterdam Round 1 Predictions

91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

24-20 on tennis in 2019 down 10.21 units

Denis Shapovalov ML/Milos Raonic -3 Parlay risking 7 units to win 6.41 units. Franco Skugor does have a strong serve, but the Croatian should not be too much of a challenge for Shapovalov. The Canadian has some points to defend at Delray soon, so getting some wins in his debut at Rotterdam would be good for the confidence.

Milos Raonic goes up against an out-of-form Philipp Kohlschreiber. This is Raonic’s first match since losing in the quarterfinal of the Australian Open. Raonic made the semifinal here in his only other appearance in 2015. Raonic did not drop a set to Kohlschreiber in their only other harcourt meeting at the 2015 Australian Open. Fognini is the only top-ranked opponent the German has beat this year. We all know how up and down Fognini can be. Kohlschreiber’s first serve percentage has been far too low for my liking this season. That will hurt him today against a player of Raonic’s caliber.

ATP Open Sud de France – Semifinals

91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

24-19 on tennis in 2019 down 4.21 units

Tomas Berdych at -180 for 6 units. Well, Berdych gave up a set and a break advantage to blow my -3 bet on him yesterday. He is in such good form though, I just can’t quit him. Berdych just lost his concentration at some weird times. He won’t make the same mistakes today. Pierre Hughes Herbert lost to Berdych 6-2, 6-4 when they met in Doha a few weeks ago. Berdych is still unbeaten in this tournament in his career (2nd appearance). He should be favored by at least -210. The line will move in that direction.

ATP Open Sud de France and ATP Sofia Quarterfinals

91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

24-16 on tennis in 2019 up 8.79 units

Roberto Bautista-Agut -3 at -157 for 4 units. Marton Fucsovics struggled against debutant Yannick Maden. I thought Fucsovics would handle him easily, but he gave away a set and a break lead to barely win. The Hungarian #1 only converted 4 out of 24 break points. Not good. Bautista-Agut won this tournament in 2016 and is coming off a career best quarterfinal result at a grand slam (the Australian Open). This is the first meeting between the two, but Bautista-Agut is in better form, has a great history here, and is the more experienced player.

Stefanos Tsitsipas at -150 for 4 units. Gael Monfils makes for a fun opponent for the twenty-year-old Greek. They played a close 2-1 match in Shanghai last season with Stefanos gutting out the win. Stefanos has already beat Roger Federer this season on his way to a semifinal berth at the Australian Open. Monfils is also in-form. Gael has won 13 of his last 15 hardcourt matches. Gael’s athleticism will not be enough to overcome poor shot selection and an inconsistent backhand against an opponent of this caliber. If Stefanos gets stuck in baseline rallies, he could be in trouble… but he knows this and will move forward well. Monfils can certainly win this match, but the Greek youngster provides solid value again today.

Tomas Berdych -3 at -118 for 5 units. Berdych is now 6-0 in his career at this tournament. The Czech was the runner-up at Doha and made the round of 16 at the AO. Great results already this season for Berdych. This will be Filip Krajinovic’s 5th match in 7 days on the hardcourts. Krajinovic is a little fatigued, has less experience, is in worse form, and has a disadvantage on this surface. Berdych should be favored by more.

ATP Open Sud de France and ATP Sofia

91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

19-16 on tennis in 2019 up 3.77 units

Was down a lot, but got it all back and more on the Australian Open. I have been watching both of these tournaments and feel strongly enough to make plays on them now. I know I know, all favorites doesn’t seem sharp, but I am not going to bet on an underdog I don’t like because I bet on 4 other favorites that day.

Marton Fucsovics at -278 for 3 units. Yannick Maden actually beat Fucsovics the last time they met, but that was on clay. Maden could win this match, but I think the odds should be closer to -400 for the Hungarian #1.

Daniil Medvedev at -429 for 3 units. Robin Haase won the last meeting, but that was on clay. Medvedev has the advantage on the hardcourt. The Russian #2 is in the best form of his career and I expect that to show here. Haase has lost to everyone he should have this season so far. I like predictable players. Don’t prove me wrong for the first time all season Robin!

Stefanos Tsitsipas at -257 for 3 units. Just betting on him because of his recent instagram post. Does Stefanos know there is more to life than being really really really ridiculously good looking?

Pierre-Hugues Herbert at -269 for 3 units. Ilya Ivashka doesn’t have the serve to overpower Herbert like Raonic and Berdych did in their matchups with the Frenchman. I’m taking the Northern Frenchman to win in Southern France today.

Denis Shapovalov at -316 for 3 units. Marcel Granollers-Pujol didn’t have a break point against Ivo Karlovic in the last round, but he still beat the 37-year-old. Shapovalov will make it even more difficult for Granollers to find a break point. The difference is, Shapovalov is a better returner than Karlovic at this point in their careers. The Canadian has won every match he should have this season and I expect more of the same here.

 

Australian Open Final – Djokovic and Nadal Meet Again

91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

18-15 on tennis in 2019 up 2.47 units

Congrats to Osaka. Not going to lie, I was worried when she dropped the second set after being up 5-3. Kvitova had not played in a 3 setter the whole tournament and I think Osaka wore her down. Osaka’s ability to jump on Kvitova’s serve in the first set tiebreak, after struggling with it for the whole set prior, was a thing of beauty. Osaka has now won back 2 back majors and will be a force in women’s tennis for the next decade or more. Osaka’s serve, mental fortitude, and movement make her the best. Osaka is the first Asian man or woman to achieve the #1 World Ranking. Congrats to Naomi!!

Djokovic at -132 for 7 units. The 53rd meeting between two of the best tennis players of all time happens in Australia tonight. Djokovic leads 27-25. Nadal hasn’t beat Djokovic on a hardcourt since the US Open in 2013 (8 meetings since then). Both players have been on the court for around 12 hours this tournament. That is a little amount of time, which shows their dominance. The Serbian has won this tournament all 6 times he has been to the semis. Nadal is 1-3 in Finals here. Djokovic is 34-0 as the top seed in this tournament. That’s silly dominant. Djokovic had only 5 unforced errors in the last round and did not even give up a break point. He tuned himself up. Novak will have to attack Nadal’s backhand with depth if he wants to win. He will. Watch Novak’s serves to Nadal’s backhand. Rafa will “struggle” with handling that shot.

Djokovic/Nadal over 40 at -140 for 4 units. Nadal hasn’t dropped his serve all tournament. This number went over the last time these two met and the last time they met here in Australia too. Nadal’s improved serve should keep him in it, but Djokovic will win in 4 or 5 sets.

Australian Open Women’s Final – No Serena :(

91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

16-15 on tennis in 2019 down 5.95 units

Who needs Serena when you have Naomi?

Naomi Osaka (+1.5 Sets) at -244 for 10 units.

Naomi Osaka at +108 for 4 units. Osaka will become the first Asian player to ever achieve the number 1 ranking if she wins here. That is huge. There have been billions of people that have not been able to achieve that status. Literally billions. Naomi had 56 winners against Petra Kvitova in the last round. Naomi had so many good shots that Petra just stopped chasing them at one point. Osaka won over 80% of her first serve points last match and won over 50% of her return points. That is good. At barely over 21 years old, Osaka is the youngest back-to-back major finalist since 20-year-old Ana Ivanovic’s run in 2008.

Petra Kvitova did not play anyone of World Class quality on her way to the Finals; whereas, Osaka had a relatively tough road to get here. Kvitova will not be ready for the step up in competition, even though she is the more experienced player. The streaky hot serve, return game, and ability to place winners will get Osaka the victory. Osaka has not lost a match from a set lead since 2016 at Tianjin.

Australian Open Semis

91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

16-14 on tennis in 2019 down 10.18 units

Pouille/Djokovic under 32.5 at -142 for 6 units. Pouille is 1-7 vs top 5 opponents in his career. Djokovic has won 62 of 64 matches against players from France. Djokovic is the best returner in tennis and has never lost in a Semi here. Pouille will not be ready for the step up in competition that he will face. I like Djokovic to win 3 sets to 0, but this is better value than betting that. Nadal and Djokovic will make for a memorable final.

Australian Open Quarter-Finals

91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

16-13 on tennis in 2019 down 5.18 units

Milos Raonic -5 at -115 for 6 units. Raonic had the toughest path to the Quarters beating Wawrinka, Kyrgios, and Zverev. Lucas Pouille is going to have a tough time beating Raonic. Raonic is 3-0 against Pouille and has never lost a set to him. Pouille has never made it past this round. Raonic has and it was against another Frenchman in Monfils. Raonic is 6-1 in breakers this tournament. Raonic’s backhand slice and strong serve get him the win in 3 or 4 sets.