91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units
34-30 on tennis in 2019 down 35.90 units
Nadal -6.5 at -115 for 4 units. Nadal has won 11 sets in a row on clay. He might as well be made of clay. Nadal covered this number the last time he met Grigor Dimitrov in Monaco. Dimitrov plays better against Nadal on harcourt than he does on clay (most people do). Dimitrov is 1-11 against Nadal all time. Dimitrov has a shoulder injury of sorts and Nadal found his form quickly here beating Roberto Bautista-Agut 6-1,6-1.
Medvedev at +108 for 3 units. Medvedev has won all 3 meetings against Stefanos Tsitsipas. Those were all on hardcourts, this is on clay. Medvedev called Stefanos “a small kid who doesn’t know how to fight” after their first meeting… Safe to say these two don’t like each other too much. Medvedev just dominated the in-form Radu Albot and Tsitsipas has a tendency to be broken on clay. Tsitsipas also has a tendency to be broken when playing Medvedev. Not a good combo. The Russian should be a slight favorite in my eyes, taking the value.
Alexander Zverev at -381 for 5 units. Fognini is not in-form this season. Rublev blew the match and couldn’t hit a winner after being up a set and a break on Fognini in the last round. Zverev is far superior when compared to Rublev and Fabio will have to play his best tennis of the year to win. Zverev beat FAA in straight sets in the last round.. Fognini lost to FAA in straight sets this year. Send it. I wouldn’t hate parlaying Zverev with both plays above separately… so I will.
Nadal -6.5/Zverev for 2 units to win 2.77 units.
Medvedev/Zverev for 2 units to win 3.25 units.