Category: Tennis

Tennis – Vienna Open Begins

91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

46-54 on tennis in 2019 down 48.22 units

Rublev -2 at +105 for 3 units.

Rublev wins 2-0 at +155 for 2 units. I have been riding Rublev to some wins. He is fine-form coming off his Russian Open title. Felix Auger-Aliassime is another one of the best up and comers in the tennis world. Felix is currently ranked higher and is the 6th seed in this tournament. Rublev holds the H2H advantage winning their only other meeting. Rublev has had a more convincing hardcourt season of late. The Russian has a better serve and has only lost to top-10 players over the past month. Both players have an extremely high ceiling and could challenge the Big 3 of Federer, Nadal, and Djokovic in the coming years… but for now, I like Rublev more.

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Tennis – Tsonga and Rublev

 

Image result for rublev gif

91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

45-53 on tennis in 2019 down 47.44 units

Tsonga at -310 for 2 units. Tsonga is 1-0 against Sonego in their careers. Tsonga won here in Antwerp in 2017. He has two titles on this surface this calendar year. Sonego has lost his past 3 matches.

Rublev at -250 for 3 units. Bublik retired from his last match. Rublev is the more talented player and will look to even the H2H in Moscow. Rublev lost Zverev in his last match. Zverev was painting lines in that one. Bublik will not be able to match that level.

New Sportsologists Podcast

Our New Podcast: Thoughts and Locks by Sportsologists

There is an intro episode posted above. Episode 1 is below. The sound quality is below-average, but the content is there. Neal and I will be recording our picks on there so stay tuned. We will be purchasing better equipment. Even NPR started somewhere… and our gambling picks are already way better than theirs..

 

US Open Men’s Semi-Finals

91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

44-52 on tennis in 2019 down 49.77 units

D. Medvedev -2.5 Double Faults at -130 for 4 units. Medvedev’s abductor/thigh/core problem has caused him to double fault a lot more than normal in this tournament. The Russian had 12 double faults in his last match against Wawrinka. Dimitrov played a longer match than Medvedev (a win against Federer), but only had 7 double faults. Medvedev has had more double faults than his opponent in his last 4 rounds.

Nadal/Berrettini over 30.5 at -108 for 1 unit. I think Berrettini has a strong enough serve to win a set. Berrettini’s inside-in forehand has been world-class this tournament. Nadal is Nadal and the clear favorite to win this tournament, but I expect a little more drama here.

US Open – Men’s Quartefinals

91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

44-50 on tennis in 2019 down 41.77 units

Djokovic’s shoulder caused him to not be himself and retire against Stan Wawrinka. Wawrinka played great though. Wawrinka’s fellow Swissman, Roger Federer, has to be a little happy that Djokovic can’t narrow the Grand Slam title gap even more this year. It is now Fedal’s tournament to lose.

Wawrinka -1.5 at -112 for 2 units. Medvedev has an abductor problem and has been taking a lot of pain pills. He overcame his injury, the crowd, and a set/break deficit to beat Dominik Koepfer in 4 sets.

“I took as many painkillers as I could. And you guys, being against me, you gave me so much energy to win. Thank you. Guys, continue to give me this energy,” Medvedev trolling the fans during his post-match on-court interview.

Medvedev is the 5th highest seed the World, but an underdog in this match. I could see Medvedev getting broken early in a set and giving up the set 6-2 or 6-1. That would be huge for the spread. I would not be shocked if Wawrinka covered and lost the match because of Medvedev’s injury. Going with the more experienced, healthier player here.

Federer -6.5 at -112 for 6 units. Federer is in his groove. He started off slow the first two matches this tournament… and it seems Vegas hasn’t adjusted to his strong starts in his last two matches. He should be -8.5 according to my numbers (not a system just basic stats) in this match. Grigor Dimitrov has only won 2 sets in 7 meetings against Federer and never won a match against Fed. Dimitrov has had an easy road here for the US Open, but now it gets a lot tougher. Federer is far too consistent for this to be a close match in my eyes. Federer will be eager to make his first semi here since 2015. This tournament has been a good sign for Dimitrov next season..

US Open Continued

91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

43-49 on tennis in 2019 down 42.98 units

Federer -7 at +105 for 4 units. Fed has been getting off to slow starts at the US Open. It makes sense because he has only played in one tournament since Wimbledon. The rust ends today. He came on strong towards the end of his last match against one of his practice partners Dzumhur. I expect that to carry over. I think this line should be -8.5 or -9. Send it.

US Open Thursday August 29th

91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

42-48 on tennis in 2019 down 43.78 units

A lot of tennis to be played today with the rain yesterday. Multiple top seeds have already been knocked out like Thiem and Tsitsipas. This is still Djokovic’s tournament to lose in my mind..

Wawrinka at -248 for 7 units. Wawrinka is 5-0 against Jeremy Chardy in his career. Chardy has lost in this round in over half his appearances here at the US Open. In his first round match, Chardy was on the court for over 5 hours in his win against Hubert Hurkacz. Fitness could be a concern for the Frenchman. Stan won his most recent slam here in 2016. He likes this place. Wawrinka is far more consistent and should be closer to -400 IMO.

Nishioka at -222 for 2 units. Nishioka does have some fitness concerns, which is why this isn’t a higher unit play. Feliciano Lopez lost to Nishioka in straight sets in their only other meeting. Going with the left-handed Japanese man today.

ATP Cincinnati – August 14th

91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

42-47 on tennis in 2019 down 39.78 units

Tsitsipas/Wawrinka/Zverev Parlay risking 4 units to win 12.86 units. Struff beat Tsitsipas earlier this year. The Greek won’t want that to happen again. Neither of these players are playing their best tennis right now, but Tsitsipas is the better player. Struff has had a great 2019 but his standards, but has been slipping recently. I like Stefanos to do enough today against the strong Struff serve.

Wawrinka and Rublev meet today. Wawrinka leads the H2H 1-0, but that match was a couple years ago. Rublev has struggled since his back injury last year, but has turned it up lately. I just like Wawrinka’s ability to fight back. Wawrinka is 6-2 in the second round here. He lost in the second round to a Russian last week… I don’t think that’ll happen twice in a row.

Miomir Kecmanovic is in great form, and Zverev is not. Alexanders Zverev is great in Masters 1000 events, but he has never won a match in Cincy in 6 appearances here. He will get at least one win this time around.

 

Wimbledon Semifinals

91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

41-46 on tennis in 2019 down 30.39 units

If I lose my Nadal bet today I’m done on tennis until next year, but it won’t lose so don’t worry all 26 of you loyal readers. GOAT Status in tennis is on the line. Federer has 20 Major titles. Djokovic has 15 Major titles. Nadal has 18 Major titles. The winner of the 40th meeting between Federer and Nadal will most likely play Djokovic in the final. It doesn’t get better than this. I’m pumped for tomorrow’s matches. Can Ya’ll believe Meghan, Duchess of Sussex, wore jeans to Wimbledon? #NotMyDuchess People get way too worked up about stuff haha. I mean the short little Bagel Guy’s fight is the epitome of that.

Roger Federer has never beat both Rafa and Djokovic in the same major before… now is his chance

Nadal -2 at -106 for 12 units. Rafa has dropped 1 set here at Wimbledon so far (Krygios), while Federer has dropped 2 (Nishikori and George Harris). These guys have met 39 times, so there are not many surprises to be had. Nadal wants to play to Federer’s backhand in the long rallies, and Federer wants to get around to his forehand as much as possible. Federer and Nadal have been going at it since Federer was in Gillette commercials with Tiger Woods before Tiger went all Denny’s waitress on us (over 15 years of matches between these two).

The grass is playing slow, which helps Rafa a smidge. Rafa won the last meeting (on clay). Nadal just beat Sam Querrey, who was serving amazingly in this tournament, easily. The Spaniard has been doing the things he needs to beat Roger. Federer looked good against Nishikori, but he still dropped a set. Nadal will take advantage of Federer’s backhand and even the Wimbledon H2H at 2-2. 3 sets to 1 for Nadal is my prediction. Also, Federer hasn’t been able to find the aces this year at Wimbledon like he has in year’s past.. those free points will be missed against Rafa. Furthermore, If you believe that sports are rigged (cough NBA cough), the US Open would have even more intrigue if Rafa can get his 19th title and be 1 short of Federer going into that tournament..

Djokovic Sets -2½ at -140 for 3 units. RBA doesn’t have match of a chance against the World #1 today IMO. Bautista-Agut looked shaky in his 3rd set against Pella. That is not a good sign going against the always in-form Djokovic. RBA has won twice against Djokovic this year, but I don’t see it happening on this stage.