ATP Monte Carlo Round of 16 Predictions

91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

34-30 on tennis in 2019 down 35.90 units

Nadal -6.5 at -115 for 4 units. Nadal has won 11 sets in a row on clay. He might as well be made of clay. Nadal covered this number the last time he met Grigor Dimitrov in Monaco. Dimitrov plays better against Nadal on harcourt than he does on clay (most people do). Dimitrov is 1-11 against Nadal all time. Dimitrov has a shoulder injury of sorts and Nadal found his form quickly here beating Roberto Bautista-Agut 6-1,6-1.

Medvedev at +108 for 3 units. Medvedev has won all 3 meetings against Stefanos Tsitsipas. Those were all on hardcourts, this is on clay. Medvedev called Stefanos “a small kid who doesn’t know how to fight” after their first meeting… Safe to say these two don’t like each other too much. Medvedev just dominated the in-form Radu Albot and Tsitsipas has a tendency to be broken on clay. Tsitsipas also has a tendency to be broken when playing Medvedev. Not a good combo. The Russian should be a slight favorite in my eyes, taking the value.

Alexander Zverev at -381 for 5 units. Fognini is not in-form this season. Rublev blew the match and couldn’t hit a winner after being up a set and a break on Fognini in the last round. Zverev is far superior when compared to Rublev and Fabio will have to play his best tennis of the year to win. Zverev beat FAA in straight sets in the last round.. Fognini lost to FAA in straight sets this year. Send it. I wouldn’t hate parlaying Zverev with both plays above separately… so I will.

Nadal -6.5/Zverev for 2 units to win 2.77 units.

Medvedev/Zverev for 2 units to win 3.25 units.

 

 

Advertisements

Parlay Day

Waiting on my Hornets over 35.5 and Bucks over 47.5 wins money before I bet big again. NC State being up 2 with the ball and 10 seconds left but still losing took a lot out of me. Tough when a redshirt senior turns the ball over on an inbound pass instead of calling a timeout. I don’t like Garrison Mathews of Lipscomb.

7-5 on parlays up 18.76 units

Virginia/Michigan/Simona Halep for 3 units to win 7.24 units.

FSU +8.5/Michigan/Virginia/Simona Halep/Francis Tiafoe +1.5 sets/Roger Federer for 1 unit to win 10.14 units.

These plays are either WTA/ATP Miami or NCAA tournament events. Parlays are the only thing keeping me afloat so I will start sharing them more. Just have to be able to stomach some losses with parlays as they are less likely to win. If both of these lose I am waiting till my NBA season long bets gets paid and using that on the Masters and Final Four.

ATP Indian Wells Final – Roger Federer vs Dominic Thiem

91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

34-29 on tennis in 2019 down 31.90 units

I was bummed we didn’t get to watch another Federer/Nadal chapter, but the walkover means Federer will be fresher for this final.

Roger Federer -4 at +111 for 4 units. Federer is going for a record 6 titles here. The Swiss #1 has won 10 matches in a row. Roger has faced 18 players with a one-handed backhand in hardcourt finals in his career.. he has won them all. Thiem would tie his career-high ranking if he wins here. I don’t think he does. Federer is winning over 80% of his first serve points, if he can continue that he will cover. A rested, hungry Federer gets the job done today.

Nadal and Federer Meet Again – Indian Wells Semifinals Preview

91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

34-29 on tennis in 2019 down 31.90 units

Nadal at +193 for 3 units. Federer has won the past 3 meetings in straight sets, but Nadal still leads the H2H 23-15. Nadal’s first serve win rate is higher than 70% in this tournament. He struggled with his first serve a little in his most recent loss to Krygios. Nadal dropped 3 match points in that match. He has been refocused since losing that heated match. The conditions have been a little slow this week compared to past years, which I think helps Nadal. I missed Federer’s last match (straight sets win over Hurkacz) due to watching basketball, but I watched the highlights and read some twitter opinions. It was more of the same for Federer who has now won 7 straight matches in a row in straight sets. Nadal does have some fitness problems, but he fights through it and gets the win today behind a more consistent first serve than Federer.

Indian Wells Round 3 Predictions Continued

FAA was so close to coming back from 5-1 down in the 3rd set, but he lost the tiebreak against Yoshihito. Felix was up a set and a break at one point, but that was short-lived. The youngster has impressed this season. That loss took what would have been a great day, to an above average day.

91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

30-28 on tennis in 2019 down 34.12 units

Daniil Medvedev -3 at -152 for 4 units. Filip Krajinovic has won his last 4 matches in straight sets, but none of those opponents have been of Medvedev’s caliber. Medvedev beat the in-form Mackenzie McDonald 7-5, 6-0. Medvedev has won 4 ATP titles over the past 14 months, but he has yet to make it to a round of 16 match at Masters 1000 event. He knows this and gets the job done today.

Rafael Nadal -1.5 Sets at -290 for 5 units. I love Diego Schwartzman and his ability to get around the court. He’s small, but he covers ground well. Nadal still hasn’t got over his loss to Krygios and will want to win this tournament. Nadal gave up three match points in the deciding set tiebreaker to Krygios. Nadal is 6-0 against Schwartzman in his career and has only dropped 2 sets to him. Send it.

John Isner -1.5 Sets at -127 for 3 units. Isner is coming off his 6th 6-0 set win of his career. Alexei Popyrin didn’t stand a chance. Stefanos Tsitsipas and Karen Khachanov want Isner’s top 10 spot, so John has to keep winning. Isner has only lost in this round twice in his many appearances here (Monfils in 2017 and Roddick in 2011). Guido Pella is a claycourt player that is not of the same caliber on hardcourts as Isner, Monfils, or Roddick. Pella is in great form and this is the farthest he has even made it in this tournament. Isner has the surface and fitness advantage. Taking the American even though both are in great form.

Radu Albot +4 at -130 for 1 unit. Kyle Edmund and Radu Albot are both in great form. Edmund leads the H2H 3-0, but Albot is in the form of his life now. Albot has more match time lately as well. Going with the underdog in this one.

Roger Federer at -330 for 2 units. Federer is 19-0 against his countryman, Stan Warinka, on hardcourts.

Hubert Hurkacz +1.5 Sets at -119 for 2 units. Hurkacz beat Nishikori in an exciting 3 set match just 2 weeks ago. Hurkacz has won 11 of his past 17 matches. Nishikori barely beat the out-of-form Adrian Mannarino to get here. Novak Djokovic seem to have knocked Nisikori down a peg when he forced Kei to retire in Melbourne. This will be a close entertaining match. Hubert will have the confidence, but the Japanese #1 will want revenge..

Indian Wells Round 3

91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

29-27 on tennis in 2019 down 34.44 units

Monfils -1.5 sets at -185 for 8 units. Monfils has been healthy and consistent this season. Monfils has won the past two matchups in straight sets. I could get into things like Monfils should play to Albert Ramos-Vinolas’ backhand and what not, but I am writing late today and want to post this.

Felix Auger-Alliassime at -152 for 4 units. Yoshihito Nishioka last beat Felix when Felix was 14. Felix is no longer 14. The Canadian is in the best form of his career and he will equal the head 2 head tonight. Yoshihito’s left-handedness could make for some difficult spots for Auger-Aliassime, but the young Canadian has won against better opponents than Nishioka.

Indian Wells BNP Paribas Open Outlook and Round 1 Preview

The “Mini Major” is here. Last year’s winner, Juan Marin Del Potro, is out with an injury this time around. Every other top seed is here though (Federer, Nadal, Djokovic etc…) The top 32 seeds all get a first round bye in this tournament. Only 2 unseeded players have made it to the quarterfinals here in the past 5 years. The best players take this tournament seriously. Nadal is 50-10 in this tournament. Djokovic is 49-8. Zverev is in-form. Federer is still Federer. Kevin Anderson is back after suffering some elbow pain. Monfils and Tsitsipas are looking to stay in solid form as well. It will be an exciting tournament.

91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

27-24 on tennis in 2019 down 28.19 units

Radu Albot at -225 for 5 units. Albot won in Delray Beach already this season. He has been producing consistently this year. Copil has lost to worse players on this surface recently than Albot. The top ranked Moldovan gets the win here.

Hubert Hurkacz at -191 for 4 units. Hurkacz made his first quarterfinal recently beating Kei Nishikori to get there. This is his first meeting against Donald Young. Young has 6 first round exits here at Indian Wells. Young doesn’t have a main draw ATP win since the Citi Open 10 months ago.

Andreas Seppi at -194 for 4 units. Seppi is 6-2 in first round matches here. Peter Gojowczyk doesn’t scare me even with all those consonants to end his name.  Seppi is in better form and won their only other meeting on this surface.

Ryan Harrison -1.5 sets at -106 for 4 units. Ryan Harrison keeps playing Nick Kyrgios in the first round of tournaments and keeps losing to him. No shame in that. Well Nadal felt shame in losing to Kyrgios.. but Nadal has been a little hot-headed and, for lack of a better word, rude lately. Harrison is 7-2 in first rounds here. Roberto Carballes Baena, Harrison’s opponent, is winless on hardcourts this season and is more of clay player. Ryan beat Roberto in straight sets at Wimbledon in their only other meeting. Harrison can beat Schwartzman in the next round too if he wins here.

Tennys Sangren at +103 for 3 units. Mannarino has not beat anyone of note lately and has struggled over the past year. Sandgren has lost 4 in a row, but he did win at Auckland earlier this season. This is the perfect spot for Sandgren to start rounding back into form.

 

Dubai Tennis Championships Final – Stefanos Tsitsipas Vs. Roger Federer

91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

27-24 on tennis in 2019 down 22.19 units

Stefanos Tsitsipas +3 at -120 for 6 units. Built up a huge bankroll on tennis last season, but this season has been rough so far. Still early in the year. Not going to run and hide cause I’ve lost a few. The hungry dog runs faster.

Roger Federer can join Jimmy Connors if he wins his 100th ATP title here. Insane. Tsitsipas beat Federer 3-1 at the Australian Open already this year. Stefanos went on to lose to Djokovic and cry. Not making fun of him for crying, seeing that passion is good. Just a fact, he cried. The thing is, I would never cry after playing Djokovic because there is no way in hell I could even get a game off of him. So, him crying, means he thinks he can beat the Joker. I like the confidence in the young Greek.

Federer beat Coric easily in the Semis. Coric had won the two meetings against Federer before this recent match, but Roger had had enough. Coric played poorly and Roger took advantage. Tsitsipas beat the in-form Monfils. I rate Monfils as a top 10 player right now (my ratings are way more important than the ATP system), so that win is impressive.

Tsitsipas gave Federer a lot of different looks while coming to the net over 60 times during their AO meeting. Federer will be more prepared for that this time around, which is part of the reason I am not betting money line here. Tsitsipas is going to attack Federer’s backhand on his serve. This forces Federer to slice and allows Stefanos to come forward. Federer has to step up his return game to a level I haven’t seen this year. Obviously Federer can step up, but Stefanos will make it difficult. I want to make this a massive play, but Tsitsipas has played a lot of tennis over the past 15 days with over 3,000 miles of travel in between. Mental and physical fatigue are going to be a factor for the Greek in this one, but Tsitsipas will win at least a set.

Dubai Tennis Championships Round of 16

91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

27-22 on tennis in 2019 down 17.19 units

Nishikori/Hurkacz under 22 at -143 for 7 units. Hurkacz does have a strong serve, but Nishikori has a solid return game. Hubert Hurkacz is only a few months removed from his first ATP main draw win. He struggles against top competition and that was shown in his recent 6-4, 6-2 loss to Tsitsipas. Nishikori has made the quarterfinals in every tournament he has entered this year. Kei will be better at converting/defending break points. That will be the difference in this over/under.

Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships Preview and Predictions

The big news in Dubai is Federer playing for the first time since Melbourne. Roger Federer is the #2 seed behind #1 Kei Nishikori. Federer has won in Dubai 7 times. This is Nishikori’s debut. Nishikori usually plays in Mexico this time of year. There are more exciting first round matchups than usual in Dubai this year:

Benoit Paire faces off against Nishikori. Paire has never lost on this surface outside to Nishikori; however, Nishikori has won the past 3 H2Hs. Paire has played here before, Nishikori hasn’t. Makes things interesting.

Stefanos Tsitsipas and Matthew Ebden makes for an intriguing matchup because Stefanos just won the title in Marseilles. Dubai is 3,000 miles away. Stefanos has to be tired you’d think. He could withdraw..

Marin Cilic is the #3 seed and faces off against the in-form Gael Monfils. La Monf is 3-0 against Cilic in his career and just won at Rotterdam. Cilic hasn’t played since the Australian Open. Cilic should not be the favorite…

91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

26-21 on tennis in 2019 down 16.16 units

Gael Monfils at -103 for 4 units. La Monf has been awesome this year. He is slowly making me a fan. Monfils is 3-0 against Marin Cilic in his career, as mentioned above. Cilic has not played in a tournament in a month. Monfils won a tournament last week. Value play on the unseeded player vs the #3 seed.

Roger Federer -1.5 sets at -236 for 5 units. Philipp Kohlschreiber is 0-13 against Roger all time. Federer has won the past two meetings on this surface in straight sets. I would be a little worried about Federer’s long layoff, but Kohlschreiber has been off his game this year. Federer continues his dominance over another opponent. Yawn.