Category: Tennis

91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

47-57-2 on tennis in 2019 down 52.28 units

Tsonga/Monfils Parlay risking 4 units to win 5.55 units. Matteo Berrettini was easy work for Tsonga. Tsonga impressed me in that match and seems to be regaining some of his old #5 in the World form. Surface, H2H, and location all favor Tsonga against Jan-Lennard Struff. Also, Struff has played 2 3-setters here already.

Monfils should beat Radu Albot in their first ever meeting. Monfils should be motivated in this French Masters. Monfils is 12-3 on this surface in 2019. Betting on two guys that have been here before, in Tsonga and Monfils. Albot and Struff have never made a quarter-final at a Masters event.

91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

46-54-2 on tennis in 2019 down 48.22 units

Monfils at -205 for 4 units. Monfils will make Paire work for his points. Paire will get frustrated and Monfils will take advantage. Gael is 11-3 on hard this year, Paire is 7-6. The surface and tournament history favor Monfils. I like the higher ranked Frenchman to place more winners here and move on.

Berrettini -2 at -105 for 2 units. Berrettini has a better serve and forehand. The conditions and recent form favor Berrettini as well. The Italian’s inside-in forehand is fun to watch.

Isner at -245 for 2 units. Isner will want revenge for losing to Christian Garin a couple months ago. Garin lost to strong servers like Isner over his past few tournaments. Isner has looked good all October long.

Thiem -1.5 at -115 for 2 units. Thiem has more from and fitness. The H2H is giving us good value here, but doesn’t scare me away. Raonic has beat Thiem in these conditions before, but I don’t expect him to upset the Swiss-man here.

91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

46-54 on tennis in 2019 down 48.22 units

Rublev -2 at +105 for 3 units.

Rublev wins 2-0 at +155 for 2 units. I have been riding Rublev to some wins. He is fine-form coming off his Russian Open title. Felix Auger-Aliassime is another one of the best up and comers in the tennis world. Felix is currently ranked higher and is the 6th seed in this tournament. Rublev holds the H2H advantage winning their only other meeting. Rublev has had a more convincing hardcourt season of late. The Russian has a better serve and has only lost to top-10 players over the past month. Both players have an extremely high ceiling and could challenge the Big 3 of Federer, Nadal, and Djokovic in the coming years… but for now, I like Rublev more.

91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

45-53 on tennis in 2019 down 47.44 units

Tsonga at -310 for 2 units. Tsonga is 1-0 against Sonego in their careers. Tsonga won here in Antwerp in 2017. He has two titles on this surface this calendar year. Sonego has lost his past 3 matches.

Rublev at -250 for 3 units. Bublik retired from his last match. Rublev is the more talented player and will look to even the H2H in Moscow. Rublev lost Zverev in his last match. Zverev was painting lines in that one. Bublik will not be able to match that level.

91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

44-52 on tennis in 2019 down 49.77 units

D. Medvedev -2.5 Double Faults at -130 for 4 units. Medvedev’s abductor/thigh/core problem has caused him to double fault a lot more than normal in this tournament. The Russian had 12 double faults in his last match against Wawrinka. Dimitrov played a longer match than Medvedev (a win against Federer), but only had 7 double faults. Medvedev has had more double faults than his opponent in his last 4 rounds.

Nadal/Berrettini over 30.5 at -108 for 1 unit. I think Berrettini has a strong enough serve to win a set. Berrettini’s inside-in forehand has been world-class this tournament. Nadal is Nadal and the clear favorite to win this tournament, but I expect a little more drama here.

91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

44-50 on tennis in 2019 down 41.77 units

Djokovic’s shoulder caused him to not be himself and retire against Stan Wawrinka. Wawrinka played great though. Wawrinka’s fellow Swissman, Roger Federer, has to be a little happy that Djokovic can’t narrow the Grand Slam title gap even more this year. It is now Fedal’s tournament to lose.

Wawrinka -1.5 at -112 for 2 units. Medvedev has an abductor problem and has been taking a lot of pain pills. He overcame his injury, the crowd, and a set/break deficit to beat Dominik Koepfer in 4 sets.

“I took as many painkillers as I could. And you guys, being against me, you gave me so much energy to win. Thank you. Guys, continue to give me this energy,” Medvedev trolling the fans during his post-match on-court interview.

Medvedev is the 5th highest seed the World, but an underdog in this match. I could see Medvedev getting broken early in a set and giving up the set 6-2 or 6-1. That would be huge for the spread. I would not be shocked if Wawrinka covered and lost the match because of Medvedev’s injury. Going with the more experienced, healthier player here.

Federer -6.5 at -112 for 6 units. Federer is in his groove. He started off slow the first two matches this tournament… and it seems Vegas hasn’t adjusted to his strong starts in his last two matches. He should be -8.5 according to my numbers (not a system just basic stats) in this match. Grigor Dimitrov has only won 2 sets in 7 meetings against Federer and never won a match against Fed. Dimitrov has had an easy road here for the US Open, but now it gets a lot tougher. Federer is far too consistent for this to be a close match in my eyes. Federer will be eager to make his first semi here since 2015. This tournament has been a good sign for Dimitrov next season..