Rosmalen Grass Court Championships

91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

40-44 on tennis in 2019 down 19.25 units

Frances Tiafoe at -193 for 6 units. Tiafoe’s ability to cover the court and hit solid groundstrokes will get him the win. Jordan Thompson won the first set against Tiafoe earlier this year, but Frances dug deep and won the match. Tiafoe excels in more areas on the court than Thompson, and I expect that to show up again today. Neither player is a great on grass, but I think Tiafoe has a slight advantage on this surface.

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French Open Semi-Finals – Federer Vs. Nadal Prediction

91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

38-44 on tennis in 2019 down 34.34 units

Two players are still alive in the semis to complete the double career grand slam in the same tournament for the first time ever.. but neither are the favorite. Djokovic and Federer may be the best tennis players ever… but Nadal is the GOAT at Roland-Garros.

Rafa Nadal +4.5 aces at -110 for 10 units. Wawrinka had 3 more aces than Federer in the last round. Federer has only covered this number in 1 of his 5 matches so far this year at Roland-Garros. Now he plays the king of these Parisian courts. Nadal has had more aces in each of his matchups here this year. Federer’s first serve was at 62% against Wawrinka. Nadal’s was at 72% against Nishikori. I think Federer and Nadal have a similar amount of aces in this match. I’ll gladly take the +4.5 for a high % of my bankroll.

Rafa Nadal -2.5 sets at -101 for 6 units. Nadal is going to eat Federer’s backhand alive. The cold wet courts should help Nadal even more. Federer has held in 31 straight service games against Nadal, but none of those were on clay. Nadal leads the all-time H2H 13-2 on clay. Federer is 15-23 against Nadal and 112-13 against all other left-handed players. The stats go on and on for these two greats, but most are in Nadal’s favor here in Paris.

French Open – Djokovic, Del Potro, and Zverev

91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

36-43 on tennis in 2019 down 41.53 units

Alexander Zverev +1 at -108 for 8 units. Fabio Fognini is the better clay-court player, but Zverev is ranked higher. Their H2H is tied at 1-1 on clay courts, with Fognini winning the most recent meeting in Monaco earlier this year. The German was in a funk when that loss to Fognini happened, now he is in better form. Zverev has won 7 matches in a row, but most would agree he still isn’t at the top of his game. Fognini has lost to his past two opponents of Alexander’s caliber (Thiem and Tsitsipas). Roberto Bautista-Agut was able to break Fognini fairly easily in the last round, but the Italian’s talent was enough to overcome those break deficits.. Fognini is not as talented as Zverev.. at least not consistently. I could see Zverev getting up 3-0 in a set and Fognini throwing the set away, which would obviously help this cover. Zverev’s two-handed backhand and ability to move Fognini around the court will get him the cover.

Novak Djokovic -8.5 at -108 for 3 units. Struff struggles against strong returners and Djokovic is the best returner in the game.

Juan Martin Del Potro at -194 for 3 units. Del Potro is back. This line should be closer to -250 in my opinion.

ATP Rome – Internazionali BNL d’Italia Preview

91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

36-41 on tennis in 2019 down 29.53 units

Nadal won this event last year. Djokovic and Nadal have won this event all but two times since 2004. It’s 2019. Nadal hasn’t won a title so far in 2019. He will want to win here before Roland Garros. Thiem and Tsitsipas are hot. Nadal and Djokovic dominate this tournament. Federer is Federer. Should be another exciting tournament like Madrid was.

Felix Auger-Aliassime at -115 for 6 units. FAA beat Coric in Miami this year. Coric is 0-2 in the main draw here in Rome. FAA is 5-1 in opening rounds on clay this year. Borna Coric is out-of-form. FAA’s ability to chase down balls and play winners will be enough here.

Gael Monfils at -288 for 6 units. Monfils has played 3 matches against Albert Ramos-Vinolas and won all 3 in straight sets. Monfils looked solid in Madrid. Both players are in decent form, but Monfils can decide the winner of this match.

ATP Rome Gets Underway – Will Roger Federer Participate?

91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

36-40 on tennis in 2019 down 24.53 units

Taylor Fritz/Martin Klizan/Reilley Opelka -1 Parlay risking 5 units to win 8.14 units. Fritz and Klizan are not going to lose. Opelka beat Gulbis 2-0 in their only other meeting on clay. Opelka is having a better clay season than he did last year, when he beat Gulbis. Gulbis has lost 9 matches in a row and 6 in a row on clay. Opelka’s serve will be enough to move on. A lot of units for a parlay in tennis, but I didn’t go up 42 units last year on tennis by being a Pus—- Michael Cera-type. I still love Superbad… Jonah Hill and Emma Stone have great chem. They would have highlighted green bars in fifa ultimate team.  Emma Stone is good-looking enough to be a co-star in a film with Ryan Gosling. Yes it was 8 years ago, but she is good-looking enough to be in Crazy, Stupid, Love as a lead with him. Gingers are hot.

ATP Madrid

91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

40-35 on tennis in 2019 down 31.45 units

Nadal -1.5 sets at -130 for 9 units. Wawrinka has played 16 sets against Nadal on clay in his career and lost them all.

ATP Madrid Continues – Great Lineup Today

91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

39-33 on tennis in 2019 down 27.40 units

Fognini/Thiem meet. Thiem won in Barcelona without losing a set this year (beat Nadal in the semis) and Fognini won Monte Carlo last week.

Chardy/Djokovic meet. The Joker has won 28 sets against Chardy and lost none. Either Chardy is playing the long game… or Novak has his number.

Federer faces the in-form Monfils. Tsitsipas goes up against home-favourite Verdasco. The best American on clay this season, Tiafoe, goes up against the best clay player ever in Nadal. Should be fun.

Monfils +4 at -132 for 3 units. Federer is going for back 2 back wins here in Madrid for the first time since 2012, when he won on the blue clay. Monfils has made the quarterfinals in all 5 ATP World Tour events he has entered this season. Federer hasn’t been in the best form this season and just returned to clay after a lengthy layoff. Monfils has a solid chance to beat Federer for the 5th time in his career today.

Laslo Djere at +122 for 3 units. Djere has been hot for a while. Cilic has experience on clay, but it is still up for debate if he has found his form this year. You take the coin flip at plus money.

Thiem at -257 for 4 units. The conditions here in Madrid are good for Thiem. Thiem will hit the ball hard (like he always does) and make Fognini run. Fabio doesn’t like to run all that much. Fognini has played a lot of tennis lately and will be confident for The French Open after winning the Masters 1000 in Monte Carlo. Thiem has a larger margin for error in this match; whereas, if Fognini is missing his first serve, Thiem is going to work him. I think Thiem takes advantage of Fognini’s second serve and backhand.

 

Estoril Open Semi and a Little Madrid Action

91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

37-33 on tennis in 2019 down 32.48 units

Short write up because I was up late watching the Blazers/Nuggets 4 overtime game..

Tsitsipas at -178 for 8 units. Goffin isn’t expected to be here, Tsitsipas is. Goffin’s return game has been on point this tournament. Goffin has won the only other meeting between these two on clay. Goffin’s inability to serve consistently will be his downfall in this match. He makes matches too hard for himself in my eyes.

Opelka at -338 for 2 units. Messi has scored 17 Champions League goals and 12 Freekicks since Mischa Zverev last won a match on clay. That stat is completely made up, but prolly true.

ATP Estoril Quarterfinals Preview – Will Frances Tiafoe Have Enough Gas in the Tank to Win Again?

91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

37-32 on tennis in 2019 down 29.48 units

Have one pending parlay that needs Tsitsipas and Monfils to win today. Tsitsipas has gone from a heavy favorite when I put the parlay in (-645) to a “why would you even put him a parlay” (-881)? The odds on Monfils have stayed the same. Gael’s opponent, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, is in great form for an 18-year-old and has a bright future; however, I think Monfils ability to hit winners will win him the match.

Frances Tiafoe at +129 for 3 units. Tiafoe was down a set and a break to Yoshihito before he clawed all the way back to win a 3rd set tiebreak. It was an amazing match to watch. It felt like both players were broken 10 times in that tiebreak. Many people are saying Frances will be gassed.. I tend to disagree. Obviously he will be more winded than he was yesterday morning but he is young. The American has played only 2 matches over the past 5 days. This is the same Tiafoe that played 16 sets at the Australian Open this year before losing to Nadal in the Quarters. He has endurance.

Pablo Cuevas, Tiafoe’s opponent, has played 4 matches over the past 5 days and has never made it to a major quarterfinal. His endurance can be questioned. Cuevas did win a challenger in Tunisia recently, but his toughest match was against Joao Domingues. Stefanos Tsitsipas is a -881 favorite over Domingues today. The American lost in the Finals here last year. He enjoys playing here. Tiafoe will win enough baseline rallies and take advantage of his 2nd return points to win another match. A Monfils/Tiafoe Semi would be fun to watch.. The Tennis gods and Lil B the based god will be good to me.