ATP Cincinnati – August 14th

91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

42-47 on tennis in 2019 down 39.78 units

Tsitsipas/Wawrinka/Zverev Parlay risking 4 units to win 12.86 units. Struff beat Tsitsipas earlier this year. The Greek won’t want that to happen again. Neither of these players are playing their best tennis right now, but Tsitsipas is the better player. Struff has had a great 2019 but his standards, but has been slipping recently. I like Stefanos to do enough today against the strong Struff serve.

Wawrinka and Rublev meet today. Wawrinka leads the H2H 1-0, but that match was a couple years ago. Rublev has struggled since his back injury last year, but has turned it up lately. I just like Wawrinka’s ability to fight back. Wawrinka is 6-2 in the second round here. He lost in the second round to a Russian last week… I don’t think that’ll happen twice in a row.

Miomir Kecmanovic is in great form, and Zverev is not. Alexanders Zverev is great in Masters 1000 events, but he has never won a match in Cincy in 6 appearances here. He will get at least one win this time around.

 

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Wimbledon Semifinals

91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

41-46 on tennis in 2019 down 30.39 units

If I lose my Nadal bet today I’m done on tennis until next year, but it won’t lose so don’t worry all 26 of you loyal readers. GOAT Status in tennis is on the line. Federer has 20 Major titles. Djokovic has 15 Major titles. Nadal has 18 Major titles. The winner of the 40th meeting between Federer and Nadal will most likely play Djokovic in the final. It doesn’t get better than this. I’m pumped for tomorrow’s matches. Can Ya’ll believe Meghan, Duchess of Sussex, wore jeans to Wimbledon? #NotMyDuchess People get way too worked up about stuff haha. I mean the short little Bagel Guy’s fight is the epitome of that.

Roger Federer has never beat both Rafa and Djokovic in the same major before… now is his chance

Nadal -2 at -106 for 12 units. Rafa has dropped 1 set here at Wimbledon so far (Krygios), while Federer has dropped 2 (Nishikori and George Harris). These guys have met 39 times, so there are not many surprises to be had. Nadal wants to play to Federer’s backhand in the long rallies, and Federer wants to get around to his forehand as much as possible. Federer and Nadal have been going at it since Federer was in Gillette commercials with Tiger Woods before Tiger went all Denny’s waitress on us (over 15 years of matches between these two).

The grass is playing slow, which helps Rafa a smidge. Rafa won the last meeting (on clay). Nadal just beat Sam Querrey, who was serving amazingly in this tournament, easily. The Spaniard has been doing the things he needs to beat Roger. Federer looked good against Nishikori, but he still dropped a set. Nadal will take advantage of Federer’s backhand and even the Wimbledon H2H at 2-2. 3 sets to 1 for Nadal is my prediction. Also, Federer hasn’t been able to find the aces this year at Wimbledon like he has in year’s past.. those free points will be missed against Rafa. Furthermore, If you believe that sports are rigged (cough NBA cough), the US Open would have even more intrigue if Rafa can get his 19th title and be 1 short of Federer going into that tournament..

Djokovic Sets -2½ at -140 for 3 units. RBA doesn’t have match of a chance against the World #1 today IMO. Bautista-Agut looked shaky in his 3rd set against Pella. That is not a good sign going against the always in-form Djokovic. RBA has won twice against Djokovic this year, but I don’t see it happening on this stage.

Wimbledon Quarterfinals – A Day for the Favorites

91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

40-45 on tennis in 2019 down 25.25 units

I think all the favorites move on today. Federer, Nadal, Djokovic, and… Bautista-Agut. Federer plays Nishikori. Nishikori comes into this match well-rested for what seems like the first time this deep in a slam. Federer has won 7 of their 10 meetings and the only meetings on grass and in a slam. Nishikori could win a set, but that’s all I see.

Djokovic goes up against an in-form Goffin. This is Goffin’s first time in a quarterfinal here? Djokovic has made like 29 quarterfinals here. Made that number up but who’s fact-checking here. Djokovic leads the H2H 5-1 and the loss was an exhibition. Since the start of this tournament last year, Djokovic has won 30 out of 31 matches in slams.

Sam Querrey has been serving the ball incredibly well. He has only been broken once this tournament. Nadal is just in silly-good-form on grass right now. There is a reason he got Centre Court over Barty. Querrey actually won the last meeting between these two, but I don’t see that happening here in a slam. Sam could win a set, but Nadal is moving on to face Federer.

Bautista-Agut -5½ at -129 for 7 units. Roberto leads the H2H 2-0 over Guido Pella. Pella has played two 5-setters here so far (Seppi and Raonic), while the Spaniard hasn’t dropped a set. Pella had only won 6 matches on grass in his career before this tournament. He beat two former finalists to get here though. I just love the tennis Bautista-Agut is playing. Roberto has won 3 of the 6 sets against Pella 6-1 or 6-0. Bautista-Agut is more rested, prefers this surface more, and has the H2H advantage. I had this line at -8. Send it.

Djokovic/Bautista-Agut/Federer/Nadal Parlay risking 3 units to win 1.86 units.

Rosmalen Grass Court Championships

91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

40-44 on tennis in 2019 down 19.25 units

Frances Tiafoe at -193 for 6 units. Tiafoe’s ability to cover the court and hit solid groundstrokes will get him the win. Jordan Thompson won the first set against Tiafoe earlier this year, but Frances dug deep and won the match. Tiafoe excels in more areas on the court than Thompson, and I expect that to show up again today. Neither player is a great on grass, but I think Tiafoe has a slight advantage on this surface.

French Open Semi-Finals – Federer Vs. Nadal Prediction

91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

38-44 on tennis in 2019 down 34.34 units

Two players are still alive in the semis to complete the double career grand slam in the same tournament for the first time ever.. but neither are the favorite. Djokovic and Federer may be the best tennis players ever… but Nadal is the GOAT at Roland-Garros.

Rafa Nadal +4.5 aces at -110 for 10 units. Wawrinka had 3 more aces than Federer in the last round. Federer has only covered this number in 1 of his 5 matches so far this year at Roland-Garros. Now he plays the king of these Parisian courts. Nadal has had more aces in each of his matchups here this year. Federer’s first serve was at 62% against Wawrinka. Nadal’s was at 72% against Nishikori. I think Federer and Nadal have a similar amount of aces in this match. I’ll gladly take the +4.5 for a high % of my bankroll.

Rafa Nadal -2.5 sets at -101 for 6 units. Nadal is going to eat Federer’s backhand alive. The cold wet courts should help Nadal even more. Federer has held in 31 straight service games against Nadal, but none of those were on clay. Nadal leads the all-time H2H 13-2 on clay. Federer is 15-23 against Nadal and 112-13 against all other left-handed players. The stats go on and on for these two greats, but most are in Nadal’s favor here in Paris.

French Open – Djokovic, Del Potro, and Zverev

91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

36-43 on tennis in 2019 down 41.53 units

Alexander Zverev +1 at -108 for 8 units. Fabio Fognini is the better clay-court player, but Zverev is ranked higher. Their H2H is tied at 1-1 on clay courts, with Fognini winning the most recent meeting in Monaco earlier this year. The German was in a funk when that loss to Fognini happened, now he is in better form. Zverev has won 7 matches in a row, but most would agree he still isn’t at the top of his game. Fognini has lost to his past two opponents of Alexander’s caliber (Thiem and Tsitsipas). Roberto Bautista-Agut was able to break Fognini fairly easily in the last round, but the Italian’s talent was enough to overcome those break deficits.. Fognini is not as talented as Zverev.. at least not consistently. I could see Zverev getting up 3-0 in a set and Fognini throwing the set away, which would obviously help this cover. Zverev’s two-handed backhand and ability to move Fognini around the court will get him the cover.

Novak Djokovic -8.5 at -108 for 3 units. Struff struggles against strong returners and Djokovic is the best returner in the game.

Juan Martin Del Potro at -194 for 3 units. Del Potro is back. This line should be closer to -250 in my opinion.

ATP Rome – Internazionali BNL d’Italia Preview

91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

36-41 on tennis in 2019 down 29.53 units

Nadal won this event last year. Djokovic and Nadal have won this event all but two times since 2004. It’s 2019. Nadal hasn’t won a title so far in 2019. He will want to win here before Roland Garros. Thiem and Tsitsipas are hot. Nadal and Djokovic dominate this tournament. Federer is Federer. Should be another exciting tournament like Madrid was.

Felix Auger-Aliassime at -115 for 6 units. FAA beat Coric in Miami this year. Coric is 0-2 in the main draw here in Rome. FAA is 5-1 in opening rounds on clay this year. Borna Coric is out-of-form. FAA’s ability to chase down balls and play winners will be enough here.

Gael Monfils at -288 for 6 units. Monfils has played 3 matches against Albert Ramos-Vinolas and won all 3 in straight sets. Monfils looked solid in Madrid. Both players are in decent form, but Monfils can decide the winner of this match.

ATP Rome Gets Underway – Will Roger Federer Participate?

91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

36-40 on tennis in 2019 down 24.53 units

Taylor Fritz/Martin Klizan/Reilley Opelka -1 Parlay risking 5 units to win 8.14 units. Fritz and Klizan are not going to lose. Opelka beat Gulbis 2-0 in their only other meeting on clay. Opelka is having a better clay season than he did last year, when he beat Gulbis. Gulbis has lost 9 matches in a row and 6 in a row on clay. Opelka’s serve will be enough to move on. A lot of units for a parlay in tennis, but I didn’t go up 42 units last year on tennis by being a Pus—- Michael Cera-type. I still love Superbad… Jonah Hill and Emma Stone have great chem. They would have highlighted green bars in fifa ultimate team.  Emma Stone is good-looking enough to be a co-star in a film with Ryan Gosling. Yes it was 8 years ago, but she is good-looking enough to be in Crazy, Stupid, Love as a lead with him. Gingers are hot.

ATP Madrid

91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

40-35 on tennis in 2019 down 31.45 units

Nadal -1.5 sets at -130 for 9 units. Wawrinka has played 16 sets against Nadal on clay in his career and lost them all.