Europa League Second Leg Predictions

92-78-9 on Soccer in 2018 up 8.17 units

26-20-6 on Soccer in 2019 down 9.59 units

Not losing 3 days in a row. I won’t have it. All 3 of these teams should be more heavily favored IMO.

Frankfurt -1 at +189 for 3 units.

Frankfurt +0 at -212 for 5 units. Frankfurt have drawn 5 matches in a row against solid competition. Frankfurt were up a man almost all of last game against Shakthar and only pulled out the draw. Frankfurt did give up a pk. The game will play out differently in Germany. Luke Jovic and Sebastien Haller should do enough to secure the win for Frankfurt. I like the -1 because if Frankfurt gets up, Shakhtar will send more men forward, leading to a possible 2 or 3 goal win for the Germans.

Real Betis at -169 for 6 units. Betis dominated the first leg away, but only tied the game 3-3. Rennes looked poor in their only game since then. Betis is the better team and that should show up in Sevilla tonight. Giovani Lo Celso has 11 goals this season for Betis and the “Mexican Messi” Lainez has been coming into form.

Bayern Leverkusen at -234 for 5 units. Leverkusen have only lost 3 matches since the beginning of December. ‘Die Werkself’ are in great attacking form. Krasnodar have lost the last 3 times they have traveled to Germany. Havertz, Wendell, Brandt, Volland, and Bailey will be too much offense for Krasnodar.

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UNC/Duke

70-62-2 on NCAAB last season and went up 8.95 units

20-20-1 this season up 0.34 units

St Bonaventure/NC State/Ohio State/Auburn/Duke Parlay risking 3 units to win 4.55 units. Boston College doesn’t have the ball movement or consistent shooting to keep up with NC State. State has to win these games if they want to make the NCAA tournament. La Salle doesn’t have the depth to deal with the St. Bonaventure forwards. Northwestern has lost 6 in a row and seems to have given up on the season, Ohio State still has a lot to play for at home. Auburn’s high-powered offense goes up against Arkansas’s high-powered offense. Auburn has the defensive advantage. Arkansas did beat LSU on the road, but Auburn will be too much for them.

Duke has the better defense, but both teams have great offenses. If UNC makes their 3s, they will win. Coby White, Kenny Williams, Luke Maye, and Cam Johnson are all solid from deep. Duke has an advantage down low that they should take advantage of. The spread of Duke -9 seems way too high, but I still think they win. When Roy was asked what he thought about Obama being in attendance for this game… “I’ve said hello to famous people watching games at Duke. 2 Chainz was there last year. I had no idea who he was. He reached his hand down, shook my hand and said, “2 Chainz.” I missed a great opportunity to respond, “3 Ringz.”

Juventus at Atletico in Champions League and Lazio at Sevilla in Europa League

92-78-9 on Soccer in 2018 up 8.17 units

26-20-6 on Soccer in 2019 up 1.41 units

Lazio/Sevilla over 2.5 at -115 for 6 units. Sevilla have never lost a two-legged UEFA affair when they won the first leg away. Lazio have to score here if they want to move on after losing at home 1-0 last week. Ciro Immobile should be healthy enough to play in this one. Immobile had a few goals in his short stint for Sevilla back in 15/16. Lazio are banged up, but they have to attack in this one. Sevilla are excellent at counter-attacking. Wober and Banega are out due to card accumulation for Sevilla, but that should only help the over. This should be an open game.

Juventus +0.5 at -225 for 5 units. The over/under is set at 1.5. That number is so low they are daring us to take the over. I just don’t bet against Ronaldo in the Champions League. It is that simple for me.

Champions League Preview – Barcelona at Lyon and Bayern Munich at Liverpool

92-78-9 on Soccer in 2018 up 8.17 units

25-19-6 on Soccer in 2019 down 1.04 units

Bayern Munich +0.5 at -124 for 8 units. Liverpool have been declining in form over the past month, which is understandable when you consider the high level they were playing at to start the season. Bayern started this season out slow, but they have been picking it up over the past 3 months. Liverpool has wins against Brighton, Crystal Palace, and Bournemouth this year. They have lost or drawn against Man City, Wolves, Leicester, and West Ham. Bayern have lost to only Leverkusen and Dortmund since October.

Lewandowski is the top scorer in this competition with 8 goals. Van Dijk is out due to yellow card accumulation. Robert Lewandowski should be able to find some space without one of the best defenders in the World playing. Lovren is out too, which means Fabinho may have to step up defensively. I worry about Bayern at the back too. Salah and Mane are too nice, but Lewandowski on Fabinho is the biggest mismatch. I will side with the team with the biggest advantage and that is in better form to tie or win.

Barcelona at -132 for 3 units. Lyon and Barcelona were unbeaten in the group stages. Lyon has won games against Man City and PSG this season. They are no slouches. No Nabil Fekir in the lineup for Lyon sadly. Suarez should be back in the lineup for Barca. Messi is still Messi. If Lyon was at full-strength, I would prolly stay away, but Barca has the attacking advantage and the experience to see this one through.

European Soccer Previews – Monday February 18th

92-78-9 on Soccer in 2018 up 8.17 units

23-16-6 on Soccer in 2019 up 7.45 units

Athletic Bilbao/Huesca over 2 at -142 for 4 units.

Athletic Bilbao +0 at -170 for 3 units. Dani Garcia and de Marcos are out for Bilbao due to card accumulation. Inaki Williams has been impressive all season for Bilbao in the games I have watched. He has 7 La Liga goals this season. Huesca’s last 4 home games have gone over this number. There have been 4 goals scored in each of the past 3 H2Hs. Huesca has been playing better of late, but Bilbao’s Munian and Williams will be the difference in the game.

Roma at -235 for 3 units. Palacio is out for Bologna. Roma lost 2-0 to Bologna earlier in the season. El Shaarawy and Dzeko are rounding into some nice form. Roma have won 3 of the last 4 against Bologna at Stadio Olimpico. They get revenge today.

Dortmund/Nurnberg over 2.5 at -145 for 4 units.

Dortmund -1 at -136 for 3 units. Will Dortmund be able to defend crosses today??? Dortmund has allowed 6 goals off of crosses in their last two games…. Dortmund gets back at track today. Dortmund scored 7 goals the last time they met last-placed Nurnberg. Jadon Sancho will continue to be the main offensive weapon for Dortmund with Reus out. This is a good spot for Paco Alcacer to get going again (assuming he plays with his shoulder injury).

UFC on ESPN – Ngannou/Velasquez

6-1 on UFC/MMA in 2018 up 9.90 units

9-1-1 in 2019 up 14.46 units

Renan Barao at +130 for 2 units. Going with experience.

Benito Lopez/Manny Bermudez under 1.5 rounds at +110 for 5 units. These guys are going to come out firing. They do not like each other. Strong hunch.

Paul Felder at -104 for 4 units. I love Charles Oliveira and Felder beat him. That is my main reason for this play. James Vick is long and a solid takedown artist, but so is Oliveira.

Cain Velasquez at -186 for 4 units. Cain is the man. Francis Ngannou is a beast-monster and has some advantages in this fight. If Cain can keep it tight and land his jabs he will win. Every time Cain gets a decisive win, it is with powerful punches. Francis Ngannou has never been knocked out in the UFC. This is an intriguing matchup. Ngannou has never attempted a takedown in the UFC, but he does have the reach advantage. Velasquez is the much more accurate striker.

ATP Rotterdam Semi-finals

91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

26-20 on tennis in 2019 down 10.16 units

Kei Nishikori at -196 for 6 units. Stan Wawrinka seems to be healthy, which is good for tennis. I am a Wawrinka fan, but Nishikori has started the year on a high note. Wawrinka leads the H2H 5-4. The last 3 meetings have all ended in straight sets with Nishikori winning two of them. Kei has gone 11-1 this calendar year. The World #7’s return game will be too much for Wawrinka.

141 College Basketball Games on this Saturday

70-62-2 on NCAAB last season and went up 8.95 units

19-18-1 this season up 10.08 units

Gonzaga -15 at -122 for 8 units. This line should be 22. That is all.

Florida State -7 at -110 for 4 units. Florida State has won 6 in a row. Georgia Tech has lost 6 in a row. GT lost to FSU by 10 already this month. Florida State has too much offense for GT. Jose Alvarado has been ice cold for Tech. He could get it going today, but if he doesn’t, GT could lose by twice this number.

Auburn/Michigan/Texas/Florida State/Rhode Island Parlay risking 6 units to win 11.02 units. Vanderbilt hasn’t won a conference game all season and now they go up against Auburn’s high-powered offense. Auburn has lost two in a row, but they get back to winning today. Michigan is also coming off of a loss. Maryland struggles against strong defensive teams, I expect that to continue today against Michigan. Texas has been underwhelming under Shaka Smart this season, but Oklahoma St. is worse. Rhode Island is just a Fordham Fade. Fordham is 1-10 in the A-10.

Soccer Saturday – Nantes at Monaco

92-78-9 on Soccer in 2018 up 8.17 units

22-15-6 on Soccer in 2019 up 4.95 units

Monaco at -120 for 3 units. Leonardo Jardim has done a slightly better job than Henry as the boss of Monaco. Jardim is 1-1-1 as Monaco’s boss. Monaco leaves the relegation zone with a win today. Nantes only have 4 goals in their past 5 league games and only 9 goals in 12 away games this season. Falcao has scored in his last two games against Nantes. Rony Lopes likes scoring against Nantes as well. Cesc Fabregas should be able to pull the strings. Send it.

Frosinone at Juventus and Bayern Munich at Augsburg

92-78-9 on Soccer in 2018 up 8.17 units

21-15-6 on Soccer in 2019 up 3.51 units

Bayern Munich/Juventus -2 Parlay risking 5 units to win 5.44 units.

Bayern Munich -1.5 at -170 for 4 units. Love this spot today. Bayern and Juve are tuning up for their upcoming Champions League matches against Liverpool and Atletico Madrid respectively. Bayern are only 5 points behind Dortmund after Dortmund’s back 2 back draws in the Bundesliga. Augsburg have only two wins at home this season. Bayern are the best away team in the league with 8 away wins.

Lewandowski has 18 goals in 13 games against Augsburg. Kimmich has an impressive 8 assists this Bundesliga season. I think Bayern should play him at midfield rather than right back, but the fact that Niko Kovač started him at both this season shows his ability. James Rodriquez has 3.4 key plays per 90 minutes. That is damn good. Bayern should roll. Bayern presses more than any team in the Bundesliga, Augsburg struggles against the press… you get it.

Frosinone are a relegation candidate. They are second-to-last in Serie A. Juve is 11 points clear of second-place Napoli. Mario Mandzukic and Ronaldo are more than capable of scoring against this Frosinone team. Juve won 2-0 the last time they met, but both goals were scored after the 80th minute. They won’t leave it so late this time. Ronaldo make Giorgio Chiellini proud.