Thursday Night Football Prediction – Colts at Texans

69-58-5 on the NFL last season (2018/19) up 26.36 units

34-44 on the NFL this season down 2.98 units

Texans at -195 for 3 units. No Marlon Mack. Nelson’s keg stand was awesome. The Colts o-line does worry me, but I trust Watson to bounce back after the Ravens loss. Refs will help out Hopkins and the Texans after missing an obvious call last week. Will Fuller and Kenny Stills will stretch the field for Houston. Watson is 11-4 at home. Watt being out has hurt the Texans’ run defense, but Mack is out on the Colts’ side. If the Texans stop the run, they will win.

Deshaun Watson over 26.5 rushing yards at +101 for 4 units. Watson is averaging 29.1 yards a game on the season. Watson hasn’t had his sweet highlight 40 yard run yet this season. He’s due.

Advertisements

NBA November 20th – Hornets at Nets with No Kyrie Irving

61-53-2 on NBA in 2017/18 up 9.28 units

30-28-2 on NBA in 2018/19 up 4.16 units 

6-6-1 on NBA in 2019/20 down 1.31 units

Hornets +4 at -105 for 7 units. I hate betting on my favorite NBA team, but this year is different! I love Kemba, but the Hornets have been more fun to watch with the youngsters playing. Caris LeVert, Wilson Chandler, and Kyrie Irving are out for Brooklyn. Oh yeah, KD is out too. Miles Bridges and PJ Washington can ball out in the frontcourt for the Hornets. Devonte’ Graham is averaging 18.3 points a game. Graham leads the Eastern Conference with 49 3-pointers. He is top-10 in assists this season too. Rozier had a shitty game against the Raptors, but he will play better tonight. Brooklyn played terribly against the Pacers without Irving. The Hornets are coming off of a bad loss to the Raptors. Brooklyn’s defense, shooting, and rebounding has been below league average over the last 10 days. Not a good combination of things. Going with the healthier, “better against the spread” team here.

College Basketball November 20th – A Teaser and a Parlay

70-62-2 on NCAAB last season up 8.95 units

7-9-1 this season down 1.44 units

Who knows what the “petty” NCAA will do with James Wiseman, but I still like Memphis to win by double digits tonight.

For those that don’t know, a teaser allows you to buy points across multiple games. All the games have to win like a parlay. A tie counts as a loss. See in my teaser below, I got 3 games that were at a half point so I can’t push and lose. You are never supposed to buy across 0 in a teaser. So if you do a 6 point teaser of a team at -2 and get them to +4. You are losing value on the 0 and the 4. That’s two numbers that you still lose on/can’t happen. Parlays are simple. You win them all, you get a slightly bigger payout than if you bet them all by themselves, but if one loses. You lose.

St. Johns -4.5/Old Dominion -5.5/Memphis -10.5 Teaser (bought 6 points) risking 5 units to win 6 units. Colombia is 1-3 with a win against Binghamton. St. Johns is 3-1 coming off a loss to Vermont. The Red Storm will be ready to play tonight against the less athletic Colombia. Old Dominion will beat James Madison. JMU just lost to George Mason by 13. ODU is better than George Mason this season. Aaron Carver and Xavier Green can ball out for ODU. Memphis goes up against a Little Rock team that is playing a little better than they did last year. Memphis has too much talent for Little Rock. The Tigers have too much size at home, even without Wiseman.

Old Dominion/Boston College/Colorado State/Saint Mary’s CA Parlay risking 5 units to win 4.95 units. Nik Popovic and Boston College are coming off of a lose to Belmont. They will be ready to play against Eastern Washington. EWU lost to St. Louis by 22. Colorado State is 3-1 with a loss to Duke. Nico Carvacho will be the biggest player on the court and he has some skills for someone his size. Saint Mary’s lost to a Winthrop team that Fresno State beat. The Gaels know this and come ready to play.

Arkansas State +11.5 at -110 for 3 units. Arkansas State does have a size advantage on the wings and a little more depth than Colorado State. I expect Colorado State to win at home, but it could be close. J.J. Matthews and Marquis Eaton could cause some problems for the Rams. A hedge out of my parlay of sorts. Still like the parlay, but mitigating risk here.

MACtion – Ohio at Bowling Green

71-52 on College Football in 2018 up 53.33 units

21-16-2 on College Football in 2019 up 17.63 units

Ohio -20.5 at -110 for 2 units. Bowling Green is not great at football. MACtion is awesome. Love Tuesday football. Ohio is 2-8 ATS this season, so they are favored by a lot for a reason. Miami had a lot of chunk plays last week against Bowling Green. I expect more of the same for Ohio tonight. Nathan Rourke is a solid dual-threat QB for Ohio. I’ll eat the points.

College Basketball November 19th

70-62-2 on NCAAB last season up 8.95 units

6-8-1 this season down 0.41 units

Virginia -14.5 at -115 for 3 units. Virginia has the best scoring defense in the country. They are top-10 in rebounding and not committing personal fouls as well. Mamadi DiakiteKihei ClarkBraxton Key and Jay Huff are all good players. Virginia is missing key pieces from last year’s championship team, but they are still great at defense. 

Pepperdine +11 at -102 for 2 units. USC is 4-0, but they haven’t played anybody amazing yet. Pepperdine is 3-1 with a loss to Cal. Colbey Ross is a talented guard for the Wave. Pepperdine have beat two NCAA tournament teams already this season. Nick Rakocevic is going to cause problems for the Pepperdine big men, but I like the Wave to keep it close.

College Basketball November 18th – Kentucky Rebounds

70-62-2 on NCAAB last season up 8.95 units

5-8-1 this season down 3.74 units

Kentucky plays their first game since losing to Evansville. Kentucky is a 25 point favorite against a 3-1 Utah Valley team tonight. Evansville plays SMU tonight at home. That SMU matchup and the Willam & Mary/Oklahoma game are they only two matchups of undefeated teams tonight. Oklahoma is favored by 16 against Willam & Mary, but both teams have covered every game this season. Something has to give. The Tribe have two 7-footers in Nathan Knight and Andy Van Vliet. They can cause problems.

Auburn -16 at -120 for 4 units. Auburn is 3-0 at home. Colgate is 0-3 against the spread. The VCU-transfer Samir Doughty is playing well (18.5 / 7 / 2.8) in his senior year at Auburn. Freshman Isaac Okoro can shoot from deep and drive. I watched the Colgate-Clemson and Colgate-Syracuse games, Rapolas Ivanauskas andImage result for zydrunas ilgauskas

Will Rayman are tall big men for Colgate, but Auburn has more athleticism on the wings. Bruce Pearl can use Auburn’s speed and coach around Colgate’s twin towers. Colgate was a tournament team last year that returns their 5 leading scorers. The Raiders will get some easy buckets, but Auburn will figure them out by halftime.

NFL Week 11 Predictions – Post Myles Garrett Slamming Helmets on Heads

69-58-5 on the NFL last season (2018/19) up 26.36 units

31-43 on the NFL this season down 11.64 units

Cowboys -7 at -105 for 6 units. Top 8 offense vs bottom 8 defense here. The Lions don’t have a defense. No offense to Jeff Driskel, but Cowboys should be favored by 10 at least. Lions have given up almost 30 points a game over their past 6 games. Lions have been outsacked heavily over their last 6 games. Detroit is 1-5 over their last 6 games. You get it. Dak Prescott is 5-0 in his career against bottom-3 defenses, Detroit is 30th. Cooper, Gallup, and others will go off. Robert Quinn, Michael Bennett, Demarcus Lawrence, Vander Esch, and Jaylon Smith will make it hard for Driskel. Not going to overthink this one.

Bills/Dolphins over 41 at -110 for 3 units. These two teams played in Buffalo earlier this season and scored over 50 points. Miami is warmer and more touchdown friendly than Buffalo. FitzMagic is good for throwing touchdowns to his team and the other team. Dolphins have scored more than 16 points in 4 of their past 5 games. I like this spot.

Patriots -4 at -110 for 3 units. Patriots coming off of a loss and a BYE playing a team they lost to in a Super Bowl. Yeah, don’t need stats on this one. I’ll take the best football coach ever with two weeks to prepare.

Vikings/Panthers/Saints/Bills Parlay risking 2 units to win 4.63 units. Saints can’t lose to the Falcons and Bucs in back 2 back weeks right? Kirk Cousins has actually been good. Christian McCaffrey will run all over the Falcons. Josh Allen hasn’t thrown a pick in a while, his rushing and the Buffalo defense will get them the win.

Euro Group Stage Comes to a Close

92-78-9 on Soccer in 2018 up 8.17 units

55-48-11 on Soccer in 2019 down 14.06 units

France/Albania over 2.5 at -120 for 3 units. France looked like poor in their last match. They have already secured advancement however. 4 of Albania’s last 5 games have had 4 or more goals. France’s youngsters can score. Seems like this line should be higher. Giroud should start and get his poacher goal.

Portugal -2.5 at -105 for 2 units. Luxembourg doesn’t have the talent to stop Portugal from qualifying. Portugal moves on with a win. Ronaldo will have 100 international goals if he scores twice here. He knows this. He will try for it. Portugal have at least 3 goals in 4 of their last 6 away games. The 2016 defending champions will take care of business today.