14-10-4 on golf in 2018 up 17.77 units
Webb Simpson dominated Sawgrass with a 63 on Friday and a tourney win. Jason Day beat Spieth and Justin Thomas like I predicted. Rose came back to tie Stenson which was a small bummer, but when your only “loss” is a push.. you can’t complain. Poulter did a lot better than Finau. Finau has had a sort of average year and is still getting too much respect from Vegas in my opinion.
Looking forward the AT&T Byron Nelson Open this weekend. It is one of only two events named after a golfer (Arnold Palmer Invitational being the other). Sergio Garcia has won it twice and Jason Day was the runner up to Billy Horschel last year. The tournament will be at a new course this year, which throws a small wrinkle into the tournament.
42-43 on MLB in 2018 down 4.11 units
Cubs at -164 for 1 unit. Cubs bats seem to have woken up over the past week. Julio Teheran has given up a few too many home runs this season. Cubs play a lot better at home and I expect that to continue. Braves are 10-2 in day games, but their level of competition in those games was not too impressive.
Rays at +101 for 3 units. Skoglund fade. Both these teams got rocked last time out. The Rays are better than that, I am not so sure the Royals are.
Athletics at +141 for 3 units. Manaea throws against the Red Sox again. Last time he threw a no-hitter. Porcello has pitched well for the Red Sox too. I thought this game would be closer to a coin flip, so I am taking the perceived value.
Diamondbacks at -134 for 4 units. I love betting on Patrick Corbin and watching him pitch. Brewers only hit .209 vs lefties as a team. Might be too confident in this play, but Corbin hasn’t lost for me yet. Diamondbacks have lost 5 in a row, I expect that to change tonight.
40-41-4 in Hockey up 6.97 units
Caps won again as a heavy underdog. Tom Wilson got to play and got a goal. Tampa tried to set the tone and be more physical in Games 1 and 2, but it did not seem to work. Since 1975, a team with a 2-0 lead in the conference final or semifinal has a series record of 39-2. Tampa is, to quote O Brother, Where Art Thou?, “In a tight spot”.
Knights ML at +131 for 1 unit. Knights responded last round after a Game 1 loss and I expect the same here. Fleury should play a little better in this one. Vegas did not win enough faceoffs or have enough takeaways in Game 1. I think they will make the necessary adjustments in Game 2.
28-23-1 on NBA Playoffs up 11.66 units
The Celtics limited the Cavs 3-point shooting like I knew they could (Cavs were 15.4% from 3). When Lebron can’t find the passing lanes, he gets frustrated and starts taking poor 3s. Marcus Smart had his typical 4-12 shooting, but a +16 plus/minus. Al Horford has turned back the clock and Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum are too nice for their age.
Warriors at +105 for 2 units. Warriors at plus money is almost too easy. If they lose this game, I will double down on them next game. Steph should be close to 100%. Rockets won the regular season series, but I do not think that matters too much.
Warriors – Rockets under 225 for 1 unit. Both these teams closed the season well on defense. I do not think the Rockets will be ready for KD, Draymond, and Klay on defense. Warriors have only let up more than 104 points once at home these playoffs. I expect them to lockdown Harden and make everyone else beat them.