57-29-3 on tennis up 22.93 units
Stefanos Tsitsipas +2 at -112 for 6 units. Let me start off by saying I have loved watching both these players while they enjoy their best seasons to date. If you’re biased towards both players are you biased at all? Stefanos Tsitsipas has beat Kevin Anderson in their only 2 matches against each other. Kevin Anderson has never won a set against the young Greek that did not end in a tiebreak, which makes this +2 extra appealing. I could see Kevin Anderson winning this match, but winning less games. Stefanos has won 19 outdoor hardcourt matches this season! An amazing accomplishment for a guy that just turned 20 in August. Tsitsipas has a lot to play for here as he needs to make the quarterfinals to stay alive in The Race for London. Also, he is one of the 14 players still trying to make it to the ATP World Tour Finals. Kevin Anderson has managed to win more than one match here in Shanghai only once in his career. This will be a tight contest, but Stefanos is in better form, has the H2H history, and has more to play for (Kevin Anderson can lose this match and still make The Race for London).
Alexander Zverev at -315 for 4 units. Zverev is 5-1 against players under the age of 21 in the past year. His only loss coming to the aforementioned Stefanos Tsitsipas. Alex De Minaur, Zverev’s opponent today, is under the age of 21. Zverev has won the previous two meeting between these two. The last one was not really close either. The German #1 has never made it past this stage at this tournament, even though he won the first set against Tsonga two years ago, and Del Potro last year before losing the match to both. Alex De Minaur has won back 2 back straight set matches for just the second time this year, but Zverev will be too much for him to handle.
Kyle Edmund at -210 for 2 units. Kyle Edmund needs this win for The Race to London. Edmund is a better player than Nicolas Jarry, but Jarry did just beat 5th seed Marin Cilic. Marin has not had much match-time since the US Open though, not to take away from Jarry. Edmund posted his best result in Asia last week in Beijing and will be looking to the same this week. Both these players are in solid form, so I will take the player with the higher ceiling and “more” to play for.
Sam Querrey at +170 for 1 unit. Kei Nishikori leads the H2H 5-4, but lost the last matchup between these two. Querrey has looked a lot better in Asia than he did in the months before. Querrey already has 27 aces in this tournament and won 87% of his serve points against a great returner in Schwartzman. Nishikori is always hard to bet on or against because he retires from matches. The long run he had in Tokyo followed by a quick turnaround to Shanghai makes Sam a little easier to bet on. Nishikori advanced to the championship in Tokyo last week before losing, but he did not have to beat anybody that great to get there. This is a value play.