18-16-1 on NBA in 2017 up 7.22 units
61-53-2 on NBA in 2018 up 9.28 units
1-1 on NBA this season down .09 units
I am going to separate this season from last year’s “2018” numbers as to not be misleading. I thought the 76ers would play a little better than they did last night. Their offense was pretty bad, but maybe that is a credit to Boston’s defense. Fultz only had 5 points in 25 minutes. The Celtics have now won 15 out of the past 17 regular season matchups between these two. Embiid said after the game “They always kick our ass. So this is not a rivalry.”
The Warriors took care of business and beat the Thunder. Oklahoma City was without Westbrook and Andre Roberson. Steven Adams is still a beast. The refs were awful in this game. They called a clear path foul and Schroder, when Schroder did not even touch Curry. Quinn Cook got called on a 3-point shooting foul against Raymond Felton. The fact that Felton’s NBA career has lasted this long is impressive (Roy Williams knows point guards), but he is not a 3-point threat. Cook looked at the ref like “You know I don’t even have to close him out if you are gonna call a foul like that holmes.”
Hawks +3 for 3 units. Knicks are awful without Porzingis. Kevin Knox will not start. 3rd year pro Taurean Prince is going to toss some cookies and have a great season for the Hawks. He averaged nearly 10 more points a game last season than he did his rookie year. Trae Young will play well in his first appearance at MSG. Jeremy Lin will be back where Linsanity started tonight. Vince Carter goes back to MSG tonight too, where he used to work the Knicks as a Net. Hawks are supposed to love every game this year, but I like taking the points here as New York already has some drama and is not at full strength. I don’t know where NY is going to get their points from without Kristaps (Enes Kanter I guess).
Timberwolves +2.5 for 2 units. Jimmy Butler is going to go off. That is all. Don’t believe me? Watch this “interview”. Man is on one recently.
Nuggets -1.5 for 4 units. Denver is just better than the Clippers. The Staples Center will be fairly quiet with the Dodgers playing and everything else in LA. Denver has missed the playoffs the past two season by one game. They will come out hot this season. Jokic and Jamal will step up. A healthy Paul Millsap will add a lot to a team’s defense that struggled last season. Gallinari and Gortat don’t scare me. Lou Williams could always get hot and drop a 40 bomb, but I like Denver to win this one easily.
80-76 on MLB up 16.93 units
10-1 on MLB Playoffs up 26.48 units
The slumping Bellinger ended my unbeaten playoff run as the Brewers lost in extra innings. The game lasted over 5 hours. Machado scored the winning run, but in the 10th inning he clipped Aguilar’s leg. Yelich said it was “a dirty play by a dirty player.” Machado has also made some questionable slides on double play balls this series. Manny said after the game, “Everything that happens on the field stays on the field.” I’m not sure the Brewers feel the same way.
Brewers at +174 for 2 units. Kershaw said before his start tonight “I know what their strengths and weaknesses are. They obviously know mine.” If I am a Dodgers fan, that worries me. LA only got two hits off of Wade Miley last time out. Miley has been a revelation this season and he has turned it up in the postseason. Dodgers have only scored two runs in their past two games (22 innings worth of baseball). Milwaukee’s bats also struggled last night, but LA made some defensive plays that I doubt they can make every time. These games have been too close for me not to take the value of the underdog here.
Astros at -148 for 2 units. Big Papi cheering for Jackie Bradley Jr’s grand slam last night was a thing of beauty. I can’t be the only one that would rather have David Ortiz and A-Rod calling a game over Joe Buck. Osuna gave up the grand slam, but Keuchel gave up two runs in the first and Boston never looked back. Eovaldi has been pitching well in these playoffs.
Charlie Morton has given up 2 earned runs in his last 8 innings against the Red Sox, although he did get roughed up by them back in June. Rick Porcello has given up 6 earned runs in 12 innings this season vs Houston. The line has been moving towards favoring the Astros, but I would play this to about -160. Astros have to win this game. Their bats are too good not to put up more than 2 runs in this one. Also, Houston’s fielding was phenomenal in Game 3. Alex Bregman should win a gold glove for his performance alone in that game (I know that’s not how it works). On the flip side, Boston’s defense left a little to be desired. JBJ’s grand slam covered up a lot of small issues Boston had in the last game, they won’t be so lucky this time around.
59-34-4 on tennis up 11.19 units
Richard Gasquet at -370 for 2 units. Jiri Vesely has only won 3 hardcourt matches at this level in his entire career. Gasquet can become the French #1 if he does well here as Lucas Pouille had an early exit. Gasquet is 4-0 in this tournament, winning his only other appearance in 2014.
Hyeon Chung at -231 for 2 units. Chung finally won in straight sets last time out and looked to be in his Australian Open form that he showcased earlier this season. Denis Kudla and Chung are 5-5 in their last 10 matches. Chung is far more talented and should take care of business in this one.
Marco Cecchinato at +135 for 2 units. Adrian Mannarino came back from a set down to beat Cecchinato in their only other meeting. Cecchinato is in much better form now though. Marco had not won a hardcourt match at this level before 2018, but now has two titles this season on hardcourt (Budapest and Umag). Adrian has only won one of his last 7 matches. Mannarino is 22-27 on the season and will most likely have his first losing season on tour this year. The Frenchman (Mannarino) has not won back 2 back matches in his last 10 tournaments. This line is the way it is because of their H2H history, but Marco’s serve and return game has looked a lot better since then. Going with the #1 seed at plus money.
Chung/Gasquet Parlay for 2 units to win 1.69 units. Chung and Gasquet are the far more talented players in their respective matchups so why not parlay them?