NCAA Football October 18th – Georgia State/Arkansas State

22-21 on college football down 8.13 units

Arkansas State at -500 for 10 units. Max Play. Georgia State gives up almost 500 yards a game. I want to bet the line, but Arkansas State being 1-5 ATS scares me. Georgia State has not won a road game all season. Justice Hansen is Arkansas State’s Senior QB and needs just one more touchdown for the school record. He knows they have to win this game if they want to get another bowl win in his senior season. Opponents average over 7 yards a play against Georgia State and those numbers are worse on the road. Good offense vs a bad defense in this one.

MLB October 18th – ALCS Game 5

80-78 on MLB up 12.93 units

10-3 on MLB Playoffs up 22.48 units

Astros -1.5 at +105 for 2 units. J.D. Martinez is the only player with his full name on the back of his jersey in this series. Also, he is the only player that hits Verlander well, but it is a small sample size (only 3 ABs). I just can’t bet against Verlander. The Astros got unlucky last night. Altuve, Bregman, and Gurriel all hit David Price well. Price has a 6.16 ERA over his 11 postseason starts. Kimbrel and the Red Sox bullpen has struggled recently. Houston has to win this one or their season is over. The Astros beat the Red Sox 7-2 in Fenway last time Verlander pitched and that was against Boston Ace Chris Sale. I am not going to over-analysis this one. Verlander > Price.

NFL October 18th – Broncos at Cardinals

26-23-3 on NFL up 18.53 units

Cardinals at +110 for 3 units. Two worst run defenses in the NFL here. Cardinals are 1-5, but 3 of those loses were with Sam Bradford starting. Josh Rosen has thrown for more yards in his worst game this season than Bradford did in his best game. I don’t know what is more impressive, that Sam Bradford got a 15 million dollar contract or that Nathan Peterman keeps getting playing time.

Arizona has looked a lot better the past 3 weeks and they are 7-1-1 with David Johnson in primetime. Arizona is 2-0 ATS at home with Rosen. Mike McCoy is not a good offensive coordinator for Arizona (last in the league in yards and points), but they do have Christian Kirk, Johnson, and Larry Fitz. As bad as McCoy is, Vance Joseph might be worse. The Broncos are 1-9 on the road under Joseph. Mike Iupati is injured for Arizona, which is big because he is one of the best guards in the NFL. Denver’s injury problems are worse though. The Broncos are missing corner Adam Jones, linebacker Shane Ray, guard Ron Leary, tackle Jared Veldheer, and tackle Dymonte Thomas.

Christian Kirk over 65 receiving yards at -112 for 2 units. Bradley Roby must not know he is in a contract year because he has been getting burned for the Broncos. Kirk has gone over this number easily the past two weeks. Kirk had 7 targets last week. He averages 12.5 yards a catch. He breaks a big gain in this one.

Ricky Seals-Jones over 40 receiving yards at -115 for 3 units. If a tight end has got more than 5 targets this season against the Broncos, they have gone over 53 yards. Ricky averages a little over 5 targets on the season. He had 69 yards last week. This number is a little too low.

Tennis October 18th – Kremlin Cup, European Open, and Stockholm Open

62-35-4 on tennis up 12.29 units

Diego Schwartzman at -165 for 2 units. Diego has only won 10 matches on indoor hardcourts in his professional life, but 7 of them are here at Antwerp. He was the runner-up at this tournament this past two years losing to Gasquet and Tsonga. Schwartzman is not in the best form, but this location will get him right. Cameron Norrie can take advantage of Diego’s poor form here, but he does not have enough experience on hardcourts at this level. Schwartzman will use his solid return game here to get the win.

Pierre-Hughes Herbert at -115 for 2 units. This is strictly a form bet. Herbert is in better form than Seppi. Seppi does have the win in the H2H on hardcourt, but that was 6 years ago. Not going to overthink this one.

Philipp Kohlschreiber at +130 for 2 units. Fernando Verdasco is in similar form compared to Kohlschreiber, although Verdasco does have a little more fitness. I like Philipp on this surface though. The German leads the H2H 5-4 and has won the only other indoor hardcourt match. This should be a fairly even match so I will take the plus money. Philipp has the H2H advantage and the surface advantage; however, Verdasco does have more fitness as mentioned above. Should be a fun one.

Ivashka/Fognini/Isner Parlay for 2 units to win 2.9 units. Isner has never lost a set to Bradley Klahn (5-0). Isner has only lost his serve once against Klahn, but that was when he already had a two break advantage in the set. Both are strong servers, but Isner is the better returner. If there is going to be a player to lose this parlay, it’ll be Fognini. He withdrew in his last match vs Del Potro due to an ankle injury. If Fognini wants to win, he will. I love watching his lackadaisical athletic play. Ivashka beat Salvatore Caruso in straight sets on this surface already. Ivashka is the more reliable player. Caruso barely beat an out-of-form Bhambri and won’t be up to the task of winning another match here.