NFL TNF – Packers at Seahawks

46-32-3 on the NFL up 43.39 units

Seahawks at -161 for 3 units. I don’t trust betting on Mike McCarthy. Packers are 0-4 on the road this season and now go to one of the toughest places to play in the NFL. When you look at Seattle’s schedule, they have won every game they should and lost every game they should.. except their opening game against Denver. Russell Wilson leads the NFL on deep TD passes with 9. Tyler Lockett’s ability to gain separation at the end of his routes has been more than impressive this season. Exhibit A against the Rams last week.

Betting against Ayyy A-Ron is never fun, but losing money is less fun. Aaron Jones has been solid for the Packers, but when you are facing 5 men in the box, you better show out. Green Bay got robbed by replacement refs years ago in Seattle, but I think they just get beat in this one. Jimmy Graham against his former team here. Kevin King and Nick Perry are out, which hurts the Packers. Chunk Plays, Rashaad Penny, and Seattle’s defense help them get to 5-5 on the year.

Packers/Seahawks under 49 for 4 units. I see a 24-17 type game here. Neither team has been great at sustaining drives this year. The Packers are averaging 24.8 points a game, but those number are a little lower on the road. The Seahawks are averaging 24.3 points a game, but they have had only one home game go over this 49 number this year.. and that was against the Rams. If this bet loses on an Aaron Rodgers Hail Mary.. I won’t be mad. I won’t be mad. I won’t be mad. There, I said it 3 times, so now I know I won’t be mad. I won’t be mad.

ATP Finals – Roger Federer and Kevin Anderson

90-43-6 on tennis up 42.99 units

Roger Federer -2.5 at -110 for 4 units. Center Court has a showdown on Thursday at the O2 Arena between the Swiss #1 and the South African #1. Kevin Anderson and Roger Federer are both trying to make the semi-finals… and both can. The Nishikori-Thiem matchup will clear up the situation some, but I am not going to get into all the crazy tiebreaker scenarios here like percentage of games won. Federer can guarantee moving on if he wins in straight sets. Thiem winning only a set against Nishikori would mean Anderson and Federer move on with a Federer win. The line will most likely move to -3 or -3.5 if Thiem wins a set, so get it while it is hot.

My prediction for this match involves Federer winning by limiting his unforced errors. He had over 30 against Nishikori, but only 11 in his last match against Thiem. Federer’s slice will be too much for Anderson to handle. This is Federer’s 16th time in this tournament and I think he avoids only his second group stage exit here. This is uncharted territory for Anderson. Roger gets his revenge for his loss to Anderson at Wimbledon earlier this year.