Month: December 2018

Football

End of the Year College Football

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52-36 on College Football in 2018 up 44.10 units

13-7 on Bowls up 14.73 units

Vegas dared us to take the over with Tua and Kyler and we did and won. Clemson defense suffocated Notre Dame’s young QB like we knew they would. Florida steamrolled Michigan… classic case of Michigan not playing for anything and Florida playing for a good start to next season. Back at it today…

Cincy -6 at -122 for 3 units. On a rainy windy day, I am going to side with the team that is better at running the ball. Virginia Tech barely snuck into a bowl game. VT lost to Old Dominion this season… VT allows over 450 yards a game… not good. The AAC only has won bowl win so far… Cincy gets them 2 today.

Stanford/Texas A&M parlay risking 3 units to win 3.38 units. No Germaine Pratt for NCSU. Jace Sternberger, Quartney Davis, and Kendrick Rogers will provide matchup problems for NC State. Trayveon Williams had over 1,500 yard rushing this year and the Aggies will use him to keep Ryan Finley off the field.

Pat Narduzzi has been the head coach of Pittsburgh since 2014 and has one win over a Power-5 team not in the ACC (Penn State). Kenny Pickett has struggled against stiffer competition for Pittsburgh. Stanford will pressure him. The Cardinals average almost 3 sacks a game and they will be able to pressure Pickett.

Football

NFL Week 17

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62-47-5 on the NFL up 33.61 units

Colts at -213 for 5 units. No Mariota. Colts have allowed the fewest sacks in the NFL. Andrew Luck is 10-0 vs the Titans. Colts point differential is +101 over their past 10 games.

Eagles at -255 for 5 units. Philly has to win to make the playoffs pretty much. Alshon Jeffrey is playing better with Foles at Qb. Washington struggles getting off the field on 3rd down. Philly will be able to sustain drives. Washington is done.

Pats -14 at -104 for 4 units. Jets have quit on their coach. Sony Michel has averaged 73.4 rush YPG this season. Pretty damn good for a rookie. James White has gone over 1,000 total yards this season. Tom Brady weirdly doesn’t have a 4 td game this season, he could get one today. NYJ allows too many sacks and they suck at third down conversions (32%). Pats should take care of business.

Football/MMA/Soccer

The Best Sports Saturday of the Year is Here

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College Football Playoff, Jon Jones/Gustafsson, Premier League soccer (Salah), Serie A soccer (Ronaldo), and of course Charlotte Hornets basketball…. ARE YOU NOT ENTERTAINED? IS THIS NOT WHY YOU ARE HERE?

I’ll start with soccer because that starts about 5 hours after this will be posted…

92-77-9 on Soccer since World Cup up 11.17 units

Juventus/Napoli/Tottenham Parlay risking 3 units to win 3.77 units. Sampdoria travels to Turin to face the Italian Giants today. It is near impossible to score on Juve in Turin. Juve only have one draw in their past 12 matches. Quagliarella can score for Sampdoria, but Juve’s attacking options should overwhelm the Sampdoria defense.

Tottenham have won 12 of their past 14 league matches. Wolves lack teeth in their attack. Son is hot. Tottenham also have not drawn a game domestically in a while (all season). I could see Harry Kane making a penalty in this one.

Napoli have beat Bologna by a score of 19-3 over their past 5 matches against each other. Napoli lost last time out to Inter. Koulibaly got a red card in that game and was the target of racism. Inter has been “punished” for these acts of racism. I think the punishment should be more severe, but it is what it is. Milik, Insigne, and Mertens should be enough offense to secure the win.

52-36 on College Football this season up 35.93 units

10-7 on Bowls up 6.56 units

Florida +7 at -149 for 5 units. Michigan lost to OSU and Notre Dame this season. They beat Wisconsin, Penn State, and Michigan State. I think Florida is more like the first two than the last 3. 7 points is a lot for a game that has a “low” over/under of 51. Florida averages 426.7 yards a game on offense. Michigan averages 427.3 yards a game on offense. Florida beat LSU and Mississippi State this season. Michigan is similar to those two teams in the sense that they all like to run the ball and play defense. Rashan Gary, Devin Bush, and Karan Higdon are all out for Michigan to focus on the NFL.

Notre Dame/Clemson under 59 at -128 for 3 units. Both these teams allow less than 18 points a game. 3 of Clemson’s last 4 games have gone under this number. 4 of Notre Dame’s last 4 games have gone under this number. Trevor Lawrence is great, but I could see him struggling a little in this one. Ian Book will be one of the best Qbs Clemson has faced all year. This game could be closer than people think, but it’ll be tough for either team to break 30/35 points.

Alabama/Oklahoma over 77 at -120 for 3 units. I’m not going to bet the under with Kyler vs Tua. Vegas is daring us to take the over. You have to.

6-1 on UFC/MMA in 2018 up 9.90 units

Montel Jackson at -165 for 2 units. Even though Jackson missed weight by 2 pounds and is fined 20% of his purse, I like him to beat Brian Kelleher. Jackson has an almost 9 inch reach advantage. Quik wins this one with superior kickboxing work.

Ryan Hall at -446 for 4 units. Hall is a great grappler from Northern Virginia. BJ Penn fights in another UFC bout here. BJ and all his brothers have the same name, Jay Dee Penn. That’s wild. BJ has not won a fight since he beat Matt Hughes in 2010. The man that once defended the lightweight championship 3 times, could be fighting his last fight tonight.

Walt Harris/Andrei Arlovski under 2.5 at -153 for 3 units. Walt Harris hasn’t seen the 3rd round in any of his last 5 fights. Andrei Arlovski last 5 fights have gone to a decision. Harris will be too much for the 39 year old…

Jon Jones/Alexander Gustafsson under 4.5 at -117 for 3 units. Jon Jones doesn’t like people saying he “lost” to Gustafsson when the decision went to Jones the first time these two met… he will be knockout hunting in this one. Gustafsson is ready to fight, if he wasn’t, he would have shut the fight down when it was moved from Nevada to California last week. Gustafsson is the only UFC fighter to takedown Jon Jones. Should be a good one with a knockout or submission. Gotta feeling…..

Football

Bowl Season Continues

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49-35 on College Football this season up 29.97 units

7-6 on Bowls up 0.60 units 

West Virginia at +135 for 1 unit. Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year David Long should be able to slow down Syracuse and Eric Dungey a little. West Virginia has 3 running backs that average over 5 yards a carry (Kennedy McKoy, Martell Pettaway, and  Leddue Brown). Alton Robinson, one of the ACC’s best defensive lineman, is out for the Orange. I think WVU will be able to run the ball enough to control the game. Will Grier is out, but WVU still gets the win.

Auburn -166 for 1 unit. Tyler Trent is the man, but Auburn needs this win. Purdue is missing their best defensive lineman, Lorenzo Neal. Stidham to Ryan Davis is the best passing duo Auburn has ever had competition wise. They will both step up here. Seth Williams will catch a deep ball or 3 for Auburn.

Washington State -140 for 4 units. Iowa State is that weird Big 12 team that actually plays defense. Iowa State’s only great win this season was against WVU. They barely beat Drake last time out. Cal is the only team Washington State has played that is similar to this ISU team, and Washington State won that game. The former ECU Pirate, Minshew had 4,477 yards and 36 touchdowns this season for WSU. He threw the ball 613 times and only had 9 interceptions. For comparison, TCU and Cal had 9 interceptions combined in their bowl game. Leach will have some new plays, he can’t just sit still for a month and not get creative. Washington State can win a low-scoring game, but if it turns into a shootout, the edge goes to WSU as well. The Cougars get the win.

Auburn/Washington State parlay risking 2 units to win 3.5 units.

Soccer

West Ham at Southampton

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92-75-9 on Soccer since World Cup up 17.17 units

Southampton at +125 for 3 units. Southampton/Wast Ham Draw at +252 for 3 units.

Southampton beat Arsenal last time at St Mary’s 3-2. West Ham has only won one of their last 8 at Southampton. Danny Ings has 4 goals in as many matches for the Saints. West Ham has a goal difference of -6 in the final 15 minutes of games.. not good. Arnautovic, Chicharito, Yarmolenko, Lucas Perez, Carlos Sanchez, Reid, Lanzini, and Wilshere are all not fit for West Ham. Southampton is hot, going to ride the wave.

Football

Independence & Texas Bowl

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49-35 on College Football this season up 31.67 units

6-5 on Bowls up 2.30 units 

Temple -3 at -132 for 5 units. Duke has lost their past two games by a combined score of 94-13. Temple has seen less than 40% of the bets placed on them, but the line keeps moving from -3 to -3.5. Reverse Line Movement spot here. Big money is on Temple. The Owls only allow 5 yards per attempt through the air. Best in the country. Daniel Jones will be playing in the NFL next year, but he will find it tough to throw the ball today against Temple. Delvon Randall and Rock Ya-Sin are beasts for Temple. Rock is one of the best football names I have come across this year. Temple going for back 2 back bowl wins for the first time in program history. Ryquell Armstead and Temple control the game on the ground for the win and cover in this one.

Baylor at +165 for 2 units. Charlie Brewer is a solid sophomore QB for Baylor. Baylor will need to feed Denzel Mims and stop Vandy’s rushing attack to win. Baylor’s linebacker Clay Johnston pursuit of Vandy’s running back Ke’Shawn Vaughn will be fun to watch. I think this game is closer than the money line suggests, so I will play the underdog.

Football

Cheez-It Bowl in Phoenix

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48-35 on College Football this season up 27.15 units

5-5 on Bowls down 2.22 units 

TCU -1 at +113 for 4 units. This game features the lowest over/under of the bowl season (40 points). In a defensive battle, I’ll take the team that I think has the better defense in TCU. The Horned Frogs are 27th nationally on defense. Cal’s defense is in the top 20 nationally, but I give the nod to TCU because of scheduling. Cal’s first time in a bowl since Jared Goff was the QB. Jalen Reagor has been great at wideout this season for TCU, especially considering he has played with 3 different QBs. I can’t bet on a Cal team that barely beat UNC and lost to UCLA by 30. TCU is a disciplined solid team that will frustrate Cal.

Soccer

Boxing Day Soccer

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89-74-8 on Soccer since World Cup up 12.63 units

Wolverhampton Wanderers +0 at -135 for 3 units. Fulham don’t have a clean sheet at home this season. Wolverhampton have been scoring for fun. Raul Jimenez has taken Chicharito’s role of top Mexican goalscorer in the Premier League for Wolverhampton. Wolves have scored 14 goals after halftime this season, so even if they get down, they can get it back, which I like. Midfielder Frank Anguissa is still out for Fulham. Fulham coach Claudio Ranieri has never won a Boxing Day match (0-4-2). Wolves have 25 points after 18 games, which is more than they had in the whole 2011-12 season. Fading the bottom feeders in this one.

Crystal Palace at -155 for 2 units. Kouyate and Hennessey should be back for Palace. Townsend scored the goal of his career last time out. His words, not mine. That goal is a certified banger though. Unreal strike. Cardiff are not so good on the road. Palace have won two in a row at Selhurst Park and have kept clean sheets in both. Cardiff have lost 7 of 8 away league matches this season. Zaha will frustrate the Cardiff defense. Value here.

Manchester United/Huddersfield over 2.5 at -145 for 2 units. No Mourinho = goals. Right?

Inter Milan +0.5 at -191 for 7 units. Inter Milan/Napoli under 2.5 goals for 2 units.

Home dog. Inter have won 6 straight at home in the league. Napoli and Inter have only given up 14 goals each on the season, tied for second behind Juve. Past two meetings between these two ended goalless. The Nerazzurri can pull within 5 points of Napoli with a win. Perisic will most likely slot in for the absent Nainggolan, who has been suspended. Nainggolan wants to return to Roma the rumor is. Icardi and Perisic can do enough here for Inter. Mazzoleni is the ref and Napoli fans feel he always calls more fouls for the other team… Just like this spot for Inter at home. IF Inter starts Borja Valero, I would not bet this as heavy… so wait for lineups… Valero does not have the pace or defensive ability to compete with Napoli’s midfield… 

Basketball

Christmas Day NBA

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61-53-2 on NBA in 2018 up 9.28 units

20-21-2 on NBA this season down 14.83 units

Hope everyone had a wonderful Christmas! Now place some bets, grab a beer (or egg nog or whiskey drink, or red wine, or kahlua and coffee), and find a room without in-laws….

Bucks/Knicks over 223.5 for 1 unit. Public is on the under. Giannis – Mario Hezonja rematch. Giannis and the Bucks pour it on in this one. The over/under keeps going down, but I like this spot.

Warriors -9 at -105 for 3 units. Lakers don’t have the perimeter defense or 3-point shooters to keep up with Golden State. The Grizzlies shot over 50% from deep on them last time out. Lakers play at one of the fastest paces in the league.. not a good recipe against the Warriors. Kuzma, Ball, and Ingram shoot about 30% from deep this season. Ball sucked from deep against the Grizzlies. Steph and KD are hot. I see a 119-105 type game here.

Bucks/Thunder/Celtics/Warriors Parlay risking 1.5 units to win 5.32 units. Bucks and Warriors will win, which leaves the Celtics and Thunder. Celtics beat the 76ers 4-1 in the playoffs last season and beat them on opening night this season. Joel Embiid said it best, “they always kick our ass.” Horford and Morris are back in the lineup. Kyrie has been streaky lately. Taking Boston at home. Houston lost on Christmas Day last year to the Thunder. The Thunder are better now and the Rockets are worse. Paul George is averaging 35/11 on 47% shooting from deep over the past week. Harden is hot too, averaging 39/9 over the past week. The Thunder’s ability to defend, score from the bench, and rebound win them this game.

Football

MNF – Broncos @ Raiders

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62-46-5 on the NFL up 35.61 units

Broncos -2.5/Over 42.5 Parlay risking 2 units to win 5.27 units. I’ve lost 3 times this season betting against the Raiders… No way I can lose 4 times. The Raiders suck. Denver averages 3 sacks a game and they will be able to pressure Carr. Carr has been sacked a career high 47 times this season. Reminds me of David Carr on the Texans. Lindsay will reach 1,000 yards rushing tonight in his rookie season for Denver. The Broncos take out a little frustration on the Raiders tonight. I smell a defensive/special teams touchdown in this one. Neither team has a great defense though… Jared Cook will find some holes in the Broncos secondary. The Broncos ability to run the ball and get pressure on Carr wins them this game.