UFC 234: Whittaker vs. Gastelum Preview – Lando Vannata Gets Back to Winning

6-1 on UFC/MMA in 2018 up 9.90 units

6-1 in 2019 up 8.52 units

Lot of plays on heavy favorites tonight. I usually like betting underdogs with value in the UFC, but this seems like an “easy” card to read for the favorites. Not going to overthink it.

Montana De La Rosa at -243 for 3 units. The Fort Worth native, Montana De La Rosa, has won her last 3 fights all by submissions. Her opponent, Nadia “187” Kassem has only 1 UFC win in her career and it was an unanimous decision against the struggling Alex Chambers. Not saying Alex Chambers is struggling to take away from Kassem, just a fact. De La Rosa’s superior experience, ground game, and grappling get her the win.

Lando Vannata at -346 for 10 units. First of all his name is Lando. That’s a plus from the start, shoutout Donald Glover. Vannata is a purple belt in Jiu Jitsu and is trained by Greg Jackson. Jackson has trained Bones Jones, BJ Penn, Holly Holm, and many others. He’s legit. Lando’s last 4 fights have all gone the distance and he drew two and lost two of those 4 fights. He’s hungry for a win. Marcos Mariano is making his lightweight debut tonight, partly because he is Anderson Silva’s friend. ”Groovy” Vannatta is an exciting fighter and I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets performance of the night.

Vannata/Rosa under 1.5 rounds for 2 units. If Vannata wins (I think he will), it will most likely be by a TKO or submission. I expect the more experienced Vannata to take advantage of his opponent’s weaknesses early.

Robert Whittaker at -229 for 4 units. Whittaker is a Black belt in Hapkido,
a black belt in Goju-ryu Karate, and a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. Hapkido is a badass form of self defense that involves locking people’s joints. The guy is a damn savage. His nickname is “the Reaper” for Christ’s sake. Whittaker hasn’t lost a fight since February of 2014. Kelvin Gastelum does have the small Jiu-Jitsu advantage, but that is where it ends for me. Kelvin doesn’t have the length, experience, or takedown defense to keep up with Whittaker IMO. Gastelum won the Ultimate Fighter 17, but he doesn’t have much of a chance tonight.

 

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21 of the Top 25 Teams Play on this Massive College Saturday

70-62-2 on NCAAB last season and went up 8.95 units

14-16-1 this season up 0.04 units

Let me start of by saying the Harvard/Columbia triple overtime game last night was awesome. Columbia made a 3 as time expired to send it to overtime. Then Bryce Aiken did a Marcus Paige impression and drilled a double pump 3 to go the second overtime. Aiken finished with a career-high 44 points and a bloody knee. The Ivy league does the “cool” back 2 back thing so both teams play again today. Wild.

Clemson -2 for 5 units. VT is down to a 6 man team. They are running on fumes. Clemson blows them out in the second half. Sorry Hokies.

St. Bonaventure +2.5 for 1 unit. VCU struggles on the road. De’Riante Jenkins seemed to turn it up another level for VCU in the second half of their game vs GW on Wednesday. Jenkins is the best recruit VCU ever signed, so it is nice to see him start stepping up. This game can go either way, take the points.

Villanova +2 for 2 units. Markus Howard for Marquette and Phil Booth for Nova are the two leading candidates for the 2020 election. Nah just playing. It’s Big East player of the year, but I wouldn’t be surprised at this rate if anybody runs for President. Marquette lost by 1 to St. Johns last time out. Howard played poorly in that one. Villanova know how to win close games and are the hotter team.

Gonzaga -17 for 3 units. I’m 3-1 on Gonzaga bets this year. St. Mary’s doesn’t have the athleticism they have had in past years. Gonzaga’s depth of talent will show up in the second half as they pull away for the 21 point win.

Florida State -2 for 3 units. Mfiondu Kabengele, Terance Mann, and Phil Cofer will do enough at home to beat Louisville. FSU has won 4 in a row in the ACC, that continues today.

ATP Open Sud de France – Semifinals

91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

24-19 on tennis in 2019 down 4.21 units

Tomas Berdych at -180 for 6 units. Well, Berdych gave up a set and a break advantage to blow my -3 bet on him yesterday. He is in such good form though, I just can’t quit him. Berdych just lost his concentration at some weird times. He won’t make the same mistakes today. Pierre Hughes Herbert lost to Berdych 6-2, 6-4 when they met in Doha a few weeks ago. Berdych is still unbeaten in this tournament in his career (2nd appearance). He should be favored by at least -210. The line will move in that direction.