Month: March 2018

Hello fam,

I’ve taken my winnings out and gone on vacation to Barcelona. I will see Messi and Barcelona play Roma in the champions league. I may still post plays but it will not be as consistent this week. Best of luck with or without my plays.

15-10-1 on NCAAB in 2017 up 5.25 units

69-61-2 on NCAAB in 2018 up 8.95 units

33-26-2 on NCAA Tournament up 8.37 units

Michigan pulled away in the second half behind solid defense to get a win over Florida State. This is Michigan’s first final four since 2013. Leonard Hamilton got some interesting questions about not fouling at the end of the game. Point shaving? Loyola just keeps on winning. Sister Jean is the media darling, she really takes the spotlight off the team. How selfish of her. Onto today’s games..

Texas Tech +6.5 for 2 units. Just think this will be a close game. Villanova figured out West Virginia’s press in the second half, which led to them winning by double digits after a close first half. Texas Tech’s defense will be a little tougher to figure out. Texas Tech is 3-1 vs elite eight teams. Villanova is is 0-0. Not too important of a stat for capping, but it is something to think about. This should be a defensive minded game, so 7 points is just too much. Taking the value here. Villanova has the experience to pull out a win, but I do not know if they will cover.

Kansas +3 for 2 units. I think Kansas will be able to make shots against Duke’s zone. No team has been able to shoot 3s well against Dook in this tournament, but I am betting the Jayhawks will. Devonte’ Graham, Devonte’ Graham, and Malik Newman is why I have been betting Kansas and I am not going to stop now. Udoka Azubuike should be able to stop Duke in the paint just enough… I hope

15-10-1 on NCAAB in 2017 up 5.25 units

67-61-2 on NCAAB in 2018 up 4.31 units

31-26-2 on NCAA Tournament up 3.73 units

Villanova overcame a rough first half to beat West Virginia. Jevon Carter was understandably emotional after the game and thanked coach Huggy bear for giving him a shot when no one else would 4 years ago. Villanova is good by the way. Kansas was dominating Clemson, but then Clemson woke up and made a game of it. Kansas still prevailed. Marvin Bagley III had some sweet dunks and Duke moved on. Duke was basically playing a 4-1 zone on defense in this game. Texas Tech dominated Purdue behind great defense and a balanced attack.

Loyola Kansas State over 126.5 for 2 units. Both these teams average 71 points on the season. The line is -1 so I think this will be a close game. When games are close at the end in March, the fouling comes in. I could see free throw fouling pushing this one over. Also, I think these teams will be more comfortable in this venue and hit more shots in their second game here. History will be made in this Elite Eight game no matter who wins. A 9 seed has never played an 11 seed for a spot in the Final Four.

FSU +5 for 3 units. Just going to keep riding FSU. Michigan has a great offense, but so does Gonzaga who FSU just beat. I think 5 points is just too much. Florida State also has a size advantage down low. Michigan can’t stay this hot forever can they?

9-9-3 on golf in 2018 up 7.22 units

Ian Poulter at +110 for 4 units. Ian is now 26-14 in matchplay in his career. He is using his putter from Europe’s 2012 Ryder Cup comeback victory. If you need more info just scroll down to the round 1, 2, and 3 previews. Just more of the same here for me placing wagers on Poulter.. and at plus money.

Alex Noren at +100 for 4 units. Noren has played 48 holes on this course and has one bogey. ONE! That just puts so much pressure on opponents in this format. Also, Reed missed some short putts yesterday and did not play all that well. I am taking Noren who has been playing the best golf this week in my opinion.

Brian Harman at +120 for 4 units. Value. Value. Value. Bubba and Brian played well on Friday and Bubba had some clutch putts. Harman just looked so smooth and when Rory got a bogey on the 3rd hole, Harman got the lead and never gave it up. I think this is a coin flip so I will take the plus money.

 

40-32-2 in soccer down 0.36 units

South Korea pk at -116 for 2 units. Match is being played in Belfast. North Ireland has been hot at home and South Korea has been hot everywhere. Son Heung-min is why I am making this bet. He has been in form for the Spurs and has 20 international goals. South Korea averages a lot more shots on goal than Northern Ireland which is interesting. Should be a rowdy crowd and an entertaining match.

Sweden pk, +0.5 at -126 for 2 units. Zlatan went to the MLS, but that’s irrelevant when capping this game. Sweden is just in better form and Chile will be rotating in some young players. Vidal scares me a little, but not enough for me to stray away from this line. Sweden is below Chile in the rankings and has been for like 4 years, but I still like Sweden here. Sanchez will not be playing for Chile.

15-10-1 on NCAAB in 2017 up 5.25 units

64-60-2 on NCAAB in 2018 up 2.14 units

28-25-2 on NCAA Tournament up 1.56 units

Michigan dominated Texas A&M. I thought Michigan would cool down.. they didn’t. John Beilein’s teams always play solid defense, but their offense has been impressive over the past month. This team may be better on offense than the 2013 team that lost in the title game to [vacated]. That team had Caris LeVert, Nik Stauskas, Tim Hardaway Jr, Glen Robinson III, Spike Albrecht, Trey Burke, and that bowling pot smoker Mitch McGary. Florida State handled Gonzaga.. we all knew Florida State would be the ACC team outta that region. Loyola and Sister Jean kept on being the dream team. Finally, Kansas State put the pressure on Kentucky’s young team and Kentucky could not handle it. PJ Washington went 8-20 from the line for BBN.

Kansas ML for 3 units at -210. Devonte’ Graham, Devonte’ Graham, and Malik Newman is all you need to see here. Clemson also has a trio of good guards, but the return of Udoka Azubuike for Kansas will be the difference in this one. Udoka just gives those guards a little more room to work on the perimeter.

Villanova -5 for 1 unit. Villanova’s guards should be able to break down WVU’s press. Mikal Bridges, Jalen Brunson, and Phil Booth should be able to do enough for Nova to cover as well. West Virginia lost to another 1 seed by 11 in their conference tournament and I think a similar outcome will happen here.

Duke Syracuse under 133 for 2 units. Two zone defenses going at each other here. Duke’s freshmen were struggling to switch on screens this season so Coach K switched to the zone. It was a smart move. Coach K is pretty good at what he does by the way. The score in this game was 60-44 earlier this season. I thought the line would be at about 129 so I am taking what I perceive as value here.

Texas Tech +2 for 2 units. I just think Purdue will get out-rebounded even though they are the bigger team. If Matt Haarms gets into foul trouble, Texas Tech will win. Keenan Evans will attack Haarms so he could be in early foul trouble. I think this will be a close game.. so why not take the points?

 

 

6-6 on golf in 2018 up 4.98 units

Won 8.17 units yesterday. Let’s keep it going before the Masters. Match play is fun to watch, seems like there is added pressure on make-able putts for some of these guys.

Chez Reavie over Keegan Bradley for 2 units at +145 Bradley has nothing to play for now except form going into the major next week. Reavie played bogey free golf on a windy course. Bradley is just not that good at match play. I like Chez’s mistake free golf in this setup.

Francesco Molinari over Justin Thomas for 1 unit at +165. Molinari just had so many birdies on Thursday that there is value here. Molinari can also forget about a hole he bogeyed or did worse than that on and come back to birdie the next hole. That ability to forget is huge in match play. Molinari was making some long putts and when is opponent hit the water, he did not look back. I think the pressure is on Justin here.

Jordan Spieth over Patrick Reed for 3 units at -125. Spieth finally made some putts this year yesterday. Reed is only in this position because Schwartzel played so poorly on the back 9 to gift Reed the point. Spieth had an early double-bogey, but Reed had strings of bogeys. If Reed has consecutive bogeys again (I think he will) Spieth will win this easy.

James Hahn over Jason Dufner for 2 units at -105. Hahn played better than Dufner on Thursday in the wind. It will be windy again. Dufner won because of Day’s 3 bogeys in the last 5 holes. Hahn opened with 3 birdies then matched all of Oosthuizen’s four birdies to get the point. I just like Hahn’s ability to get ahead and then match his opponent stroke for stroke.

Adam Hadwin over Bernd Wiesberger for 3 units at -150. Hadwin had just as many eagles (1) as Wiesberger did birdies (1) on Thursday. Hadwin was able to make all is make-able putts and beat Dustin Johnson on a par 5 in which Dustin birdied. I just think Hadwin is playing really solid golf right now and won’t lose to Bernd who is playing average golf.

Ian Poulter over Kevin Chappell for 5 units at -145. Poulter is 25-14 in matchplay in his career. Ian said “there’s nothing like match play. Yeah, it gets me going.” Well Poulter, money gets me going and you have been making me it this week. While Ian is hot, using the putter he won the 2012 Ryder cup with, Kevin is not hot. Kevin conceded two holes after hitting the water and had like 5 or 6 bogeys… I lost track. I know things can change overnight in golf, but Kevin just did not look good in these windy conditions. The man from Hitchin should win this one.

Julian Suri over Bubba Watson for 1 unit at +180. This is literally just a hunch. If Suri can stay in the match until the 15th and 16th holes.. he will win this match.

Alex Noren over Tony Finau for 1 unit at -135. Noren has been playing the best golf of the tourney so far. Also, Finau could struggle with his long drives in this wind.

Kevin Kisner over Dustin “prolly still ruins marriages and does coke” Johnson for 3 units at +135. Everyone is expecting Johnson to play better, but he just isn’t. Johnson can’t seem to find his rhythm in this wind, so let’s keep making money of off him. Kisner had 4 straight birdies on the front 9 and never looked back. Consistency is still important in match play, and Kisner has that over Johnson… well Johnson has just been consistently bad this week.

19-18-3 in Hockey up 10.27 units

Another 2-1 day while winning some units yesterday. Should have been 3-0 after Ryan Donato got the Bruins up early in his second NHL game, but the Bruins blew their lead and lost in overtime to the Blues. Ryan Donato went to class Monday at Harvard after his goal and assist Sunday. He seems to have an NHL career now so should he keep going to class? Open for debate. Now the picks.

Finland – Sm Liiga

TPS Turku ML at +131 for 2 units and TPS Turku to tie at +184 for 2 units. Turku won the first game in overtime and I expect another tight contest here. Turku has won their last 3 games on the road, which gives me the confidence to make this play. Turku has the second best record and offense in the league and has not lost a game in regular time since February 13th. Oula Palve has been averaging more than a point a game since he joined the team and began leading the second line for Turku. Eric Perrin is the highest scoring foreign player to ever play in this league and I like his experience here for Turku (Perrin won a Stanley Cup with the Lightning in 2004).

NHL

Coyotes ML at +155 for 2 units. Hurricanes have lost their past 4 home games. Carolina has given up 26 goals in their last 5 games (worst in the league). Rask and Pesce are now out for the season for Carolina. Hurricanes seem like they are tanking while Arizona seems to be winning. +155 against a team that is tanking is just too good of value to pass up.

Capitals ML at -160 for 3 units. The only team that is in worst form than the Hurricanes, is the Red Wings. The Red Wings are also tanking and now they get one of the best teams in the league. The Capitals have not been losing a lot lately, but when they do lose, it is to a playoff team. The Red Wings are not a playoff team.

Blackhawks -1.5 at +160 for 1 unit. Canucks have lost their past 4 games by 2 goals or more. Canucks have scored 4 goals in their past 5 games. Blackhawks have lost their past 4, so something has to give here. I am essentially betting on Chicago’s pride in this one. When Kane was asked about this season being a negative he said “If anything, it’s kind of humbled a lot of us in here, and it could be a good thing. Come back with a little bit more of an edge next season.” Whether that happens remains to be seen, but I like his attitude.. even though it does not mean too much for this game.

 

 

8-2 in snooker up 8.82 units

Ryan Day ML for 2 units at +121. Ryan Day opened his last match against world #1 Mark Selby with a century and never looked back. Day has won the past two tournaments he has played in and is just in better form than Mark Williams. Day went 4-5 against Williams in 2017 and he was not half as hot then as he is now. This is a “home” match for both of these Welshman, so no angle there. Day has not lost a match in almost a month and if he loses this one, he can surely blame me.

 

2-4 on golf in 2018 down 3.19 units

Won some units on the first day of this match play tournament so decided I’d share my golf plays for the first time since the Phoenix Open. Also, Tiger is back in case you didn’t hear.

Dell Technologies Wednesday Preview and Predictions:

Ian Poulter over Daniel Berger at -110 for 3 units. Berger did not look great on day 1 and he was my only loss on the day. Poulter is using the putter than won him and Europe the 2012 Ryder cup in what was the “Miracle in Medinah”. I like the good juju the putter brings and how much better Poulter looked than Berger on Wednesday. Also, Poulter is 24-14 in match play in his career.

Jhonattan Vegas over Rory McIlroy at +232 for 1 unit.

Adam Hadwin over Dustin Johnson at +185 for 2 units. If you are going to bet on Vegas, bet on Hadwin and vice versa. Johnson and McIlroy both looked awful on Wednesday, even though Rory picked it up over the back nine. Dustin Johnson looked terrible and shot a 9 over with plenty of bogeys. This is more about value than anything. I am betting on one of these top 10 players to continue playing poorly on Thursday.

Francesco Molinari over Luke List at -130 for 2 units. Molinari had 6 birdies on Wednesday and dominated the par 5s. I thought this line would be closer to -160 so I am taking the value here. Molinari hit 15 of 17 greens and and 12 of 13 fairways. List bent his putter and could not use it on the final holes, but he played fine.. just not good enough to be almost even odds with Francesco.

Keegan Bradley over Kiradech Aphibarnrat at +110 for 2 units. Bradley had 3 straight birdies and then an eagle on the turn and still lost to Rahm. Kiradech played well and is leading the group after 1 day. Keegan is the better golfer and at plus money. Bradley seemed to understand these greens and I think that will be the difference here.

Bubba Watson over Marc Leishman at -125 for 4 units. Watson birdied 7 of the first 9 holes. Leishman lost to late entry Suri. Marc bogeyed the first two holes and never could get back in the game. Bubba was putting like he was on easy mode in a video game Wednesday. If Watson putted like that all the time, he would have more than two majors. Bubba is setting himself up well to try and win his 3rd masters.