Day: April 30, 2018

31-21 on MLB in 2018 up 19.84 units

10-1 over the past 3 days. The Yankees were hitless in the first 3 innings yesterday, then Gary Sanchez hit a 2 run homer. The Yankees won 2-1 with that homer being the only runs they scored a day after scoring 11 runs with no homers. The Mariners barreled plenty of Josh Tomlin’s balls on their way to an easy win. Tomlin and his run of being the longest tenured Indians pitcher may be coming to an end.. but I will keep betting against him till it does.

Pirates ML at +103 for 1 unit. The Nats bullpen and bats are struggling and the Pirates are hot. Roark did not look great last time out for the Nationals. Taillon did not look so great either, but the Pirates are finding ways to win while the Nats seem to be finding ways to lose.

Pirates Nats over 7.5 for 1 unit. Taillon and Roark both struggled in their last starts. I thought this line would be 8.5 or 9. Taking the value. Also, Zimmerman is 3-4 vs Taillon.

Yankees ML at +139 for 1 unit. ALCS rematch. Sonny Gray has struggled with his control this season and that is the only reason this line is like this. Morton has a 5.68 ERA in two starts vs the Yankees. I am straying away from my numbers a little bit with this play as the Astros are rightfully favored. The Yankees have just been finding ways to win lately whether it is a Sanchez walk off homer or a Didi walk off base hit. Didi is hitting .340 on the season. Jose Altuve seemingly never stopped hitting since his insane playoff run (.351 BA).

Giants ML at -147 for 3 units. Eric Lauer pitched horribly in his first start for the Padres giving up 6 runs in 3 innings. Jeff Samardzija has stuggled a little bit for the Giants this season, but he loves pitching against the Padres. Andrew McCutchen and Evan Longoria have been great signings so far for the Giants, even though their numbers are not eye popping. The Padres won the last game between these two 10-1 and the Giants will want revenge after losing that series. San Francisco is playing a lot better now.

35-33-4 in Hockey up 10.21 units

Up 4.44 units on NHL Playoffs

I would recommend playing these two plays together because even at plus money, I can’t see them both losing.

Bruins ML at +134 for 3 units. The Bruins shitpumped the Lightning in Game 1. Boston’s top line had 11 points in Game 1. 11! The top line played bump and chase if there was no gap. If there was a gap, they just carried it into the zone flawlessly. I think the Bruins-Leafs series going to 7 games helped the Bruins in more ways than one. The 7 games gave the young players more experience, kept the rust off (Tampa looked rusty), and showed them they can’t let up. Bergeron, Marchand, Krejci, Krug, and McQuaid are experienced enough to know that the Lightning are going to have more fire in Game 2. I’ll be the first admit I am not as good at identifying young talent in hockey as I am in other sports, but even I can see David Pastrnak is damn good. Pastrnak is already 35th in points in a single post season in Bruins history.. He has only played 8 games.

Knights ML at +112 for 3 units. Gerard Gallant looks like a no nonsense coach and he will have his team prepared after giving up a 2-0 lead to the Sharks last game. Fleury is still having the best season of his career in my opinion. Vegas did not lose at the Shark Tank in the regular season. The Sharks have not impressed me this series even though it is tied 1-1. The Sharks are only favored because they are at home, I like taking the away team in situations like this.

22-22-1 on NBA Playoffs up 0.86 units

Lebron James had 45 points in the Cavs Game 7 win. King James was dominate and he had to be. The Cavs shot 16 more free throws than the Pacers. The Collison tech was a laughable call at a point in time when the Pacers were gaining momentum. Darren Collison had to be frustrated after that because we all know Lebron and other stars get away with worse than that. Maybe I am too woke, but sometimes it feels like I am watching WWE with the NBA. Oh well, that’s why we bet the Cavs. The Rockets shot 53.1% from 3 and cruised to a 1-0 series lead over the Jazz. Harden had 41 points. The over missed by 1 point, which hurt because that was an 8 unit swing. On to the next one.

76ers -3 for 4 units. DO NOT PLAY IF BROWN PLAYS. Not having Jaylen Brown did not seem to affect the Celtics too much in the second half of Game 7 vs the Bucks, but it will show up here. The Celtics are 55-32-2 against the spread this season, while the 76ers are 51-34-2. Pretty damn impressive. Simmons will play great without the length of Brown guarding him. Embiid will be too much for Horford. The only advantage I see for the Celtics is coaching. Redick and Marco Belinelli will shoot better in TD Garden than any of the Bucks did last series (not that hard to do). The 76ers are almost -400 to win the series and they are only favored by 3 without the Celtics best defender playing in this one? Sign me up.