7-6-1 on the World Cup up 5.49 units
Spain at -159 for 3 units. De Gea will play better. Aspas is so damn good and anyone who watches La Liga knows this. Spain’s midfield and attacking players will be too much for Russia. I think the host team goes out in regular time here. Spain are undefeated in their last 14 matches.
Croatia to advance at -250 for 2 units. Modric has been the best player of the tournament so far in my opinion. Croatia just has more creativity and a solid defense to go along with their creative attack. Denmark has played well going undefeated in their last 12 matches, but Croatia has won 3 in a row, including a 3-0 win against Argentina. I think Modric has quietly been the most important player on Real Madrid, last time they didn’t win champions league he was hurt. I know Ronaldo is great, but as we saw against Uruguay, he needs midfield help that Modric provides for their club.
5-5-1 on the World Cup up 2.29 units
Round of 16! Sweet Sixteen!
France to advance at -152 for 3 units. This game is in Kazan, which is a scenic city right on the Volga river. Argentina’s defense has just been too shaky in group play for me to take them here. France has a better defense, goalkeeper, midfield…. but they don’t have Messi obviously. Griezmann and Mbappe are no slouches either. Kante did well against Messi when Chelsea played against Barcelona and I expect a similar tracking approach here. This is the toughest test for both teams so far, but I think France takes it.
France – Argentina over 2 for 4 units at -108. Argentina does not have a great defense and they have Messi.
Portugal to advance at -105 for 2 units. Ronaldo, Ronaldo, and Moutinho. Uruguay has Cavani and Suarez, but I think Portugal has the better defense. A lot of people have Uruguay as their sleeper team, but Ronaldo has been dominating tournaments the past few years. I expect that to continue.
31-13-2 on tennis up 11.83 units
Stephane Robert at -166 for 2 units. Robert has looked good in qualifications matches so far and I expect that to continue. Robert’s opponent, Luca Vanni has not looked as good in my opinion. Neither one of these players excels on grass, so I will take the player who is in better form. I am looking forward for this tournament to “actually” start. Federer is the easy favorite for the men, while Halep and Serena Williams are the favorites for the women. Strong serves usually play well at Wimbledon, and I expect that to be the case again this year.
4-5-1 on the World Cup down 0.99 units
Colombia at -122 for 4 units. They burned me last time out, but James Rodriquez will redeem me and himself after Colombia’s Japan loss. Cuadrado and Falcao have been solid so far this tournament. I just think Colombia is better than Senegal. Mane has great pace and is a great forward, but I think Colombia can do enough to contain him. Los Cafeteros have to win here and I think they will. Poland had no answers for Colombia… Senegal won’t have enough answers either.
4-4-1 on the World Cup up 2.01 units
Colombia -146 for 3 units. Colombia won 4-1 the last time they met Japan in the World Cup. James Rodriquez always seems to shine in these World Cup matches. Ospina and Falcao bring in some more quality to this Colombian side. I just think Colombia has more talent and depth so I will take them to win their opening game.
God I love the World Cup. Russia and Saudi Arabia played and I got hype, and now Portugal and Spain play today. Russia looked a lot better than I thought they would. Golovin was silly good with his ball control, crossing, and of course free kick.
2-1 on the World Cup up 2.91 units
Uruguay -1 at -115 for 2 units. Salah is not fully fit. Uruguay’s forward pair of Cavani and Suarez will be too much for Egypt’s defense.
Morocco at +129 for 3 units. Morocco only gave up 1 goal in 8 qualifying games! Morocco has the best player on the field in Benatia, who leads their defense. Also, Morocco has the better forwards. I think this line is generous so I will bite.
Spain at +101 for 2 units and Spain/Portugal draw at +210 for 2 units. Portugal has Ronaldo, but they do not have the defense or the midfield to keep up with Spain in my opinion. Spain also has the best goalkeeper in the world in David De Gea. I am just going with the better team in this one.
I will be doing my World Cup predictions and previews for every game.. much like I did for the NBA and NHL playoffs that saw me accrue some winnings. The World Cup is the best tournament in the World, even if it is run by a rigged entity. My other favorite tournament, the NCAA basketball tournament, is also run by a rigged entity, hmmmmm. Can I get a stable trustworthy institution?
Russia – Saudi Arabia under 2, 2.5 for 1 unit. Two lowest ranked teams in the whole tournament.. so I do not expect a lot of firepower.
Russia – Saudi Arabia over 0.5, 1 (first half) for 4 units at -130. There has been a goal scored in the first half of Saudi Arabia’s last 9 games.
Russia at -240 for 2 units. I think Russia wins in a tight one. I just can’t see a lot of goals being scored in this one. Saudi Arabia has been awful on the road and I expect that to continue here.
18-15-4 on golf in 2018 up 13.74 units
Phil Mickelson and Dustin Johnson did well for me last week at TPC Southwind during the FedEx St. Jude Classic. Phil has placed in 2nd at the U.S. Open 6 times. 6! He will be motivated to win this one. Phil got second the last time the U.S. Open was played at Shinnecock when he lost to Retief Goosen in 2004. Rickie Fowler has also got second at the U.S. Open back when Fowler was playing excellent golf in 2014. Shinnecock Hills Golf Club is a tough course and the greens will most likely play fast over the weekend after the course dries up. A situation like this may give an advantage to solid short game players like Jason Day and Rickie.
Top 10 finishers:
Jason Day at +150 for 2 units. Day hasn’t had the best approach game lately (outside of top 150 in that catergory), but he has been dominating the short game.
Jordan Spieth at +150 for 2 units. His putting has just been so bad and he still almost won the Masters. I like the 3 time major champion to right the ship this weekend. Putting is not as important as ball-striking on this course in my opinion. Spieth is great at reading the course and lies, I like him to do well here.
Phil Mickelson at +275 for 3 units. I think this is his last shot to complete the career grand slam. At 48, he would be the oldest U.S. Open winner ever. I do not think he will win, and I hope for his sake he does not get 2nd for the 7th time. I still think he has a solid chance of finishing in the Top 10 though.
Brooks Koepka over Tiger Woods at -130 for 1 unit. Tiger fade. Brooks looked okay last week and has a title to defend. Koepka has not missed a beat since returning from his multiple month wrist injury.
Phil Mickelson over Branden Grace at -120 for 1 unit.
Phil Mickelson over Bryson DeChambeau at -110 for 1 unit. Just going to ride Phil. This is one where my heart could be getting in the way of my brain…
Jordan Spieth over Tiger Woods at -130 for 6 units. Spieth will do better than Tiger this tournament….
Jason Day over Justin Rose at +115 for 2 units.
Jason Day over Rory McIlroy at -110 for 2 units. Rory and Rose have not impressed me too much this year. When Jason Day is on, I think he is the best golfer in the world even if Dustin Cokehead Johnson is #1.
Adam Scott over Tony Finau at -110 for 5 units. Finau fade. Finau missed the cut last week and hasn’t placed in the top 10 since April. Scott also hired a longtime Shinnecock caddy as his caddy this week… so he has the good mojo/karma.
16-14-4 on golf in 2018 up 10.79 units
Dustin Johnson over Stenson at -140 for 3 units. Johnson has finished in the top 20 in the past 4 tournaments. He has a higher ceiling than Stenson. I think he should be about -180 vs Stenson so I will take the perceived value.
Phil Mickelson over Tony Finau at -105 for 4 units. Finau played better last week, but he is still too inconsistent for me this season. This is solid value. Phil played better last week than he has in a while. I expect Phil to be focused more than usual in these tournaments leading up to the U.S. Open (which he has never won).
Brooks Koepka over Stenson at +125 for 3 units. Koepka loves this course. At plus money, I have to bite..
27-11-1 on tennis up 11.52 units
Alexander Zverev to win the tournament at +700 for 1 unit.
Dominic Thiem to win the tournament at +1250 for 1 unit.
Goffin -260 for 2 units.
Goffin -5 at -108 for 4 units.
Edmund +1.5 at -120 for 6 units. Fognini could win this match easily… but this is Fabio Fognini. I think Fognini loses some sets big even if he wins the match. He just has too much give up in him. Edmund is good enough and consistent enough to frustrate Fognini. First ever meeting between these two.
John Isner at -260 for 5 units. Isner has never lost to Herbert. Herbert is consistent no doubt, but Isner has been hot on clay lately. Isner’s serve is also too powerful for Herbert.
Schwartzman at +138 for 3 units. I just love this little guy. His ability to move around and chase balls will be valuable in this long match. Coric has a good history against Schwartzman, but Schwartzman is better than the history suggests.