NFL September 30th

11-13-1 on NFL down 5.34 units

Went up over 10 units and then down over 10 units already on this NFL season. Had a good read on the Thursday night game and I am going to keep that going. I have won a lot of money since Tha Carter V came out. I thank Wayne. Causation.

People said the Vikings defense could stop Sean McVay on the road on a short week… lol. Anthony Barr got burnt over and over again. Barr was drafted 4 picks before Aaron Donald in the 2014 draft.

Packers at -380 for 6 units. Packers won’t take the Bills for granted like the Vikings did last week. Rodgers does not lose at home very often. Green Bay averages over 100 more yards per game on offense than the Bills. Packers have a problem getting off the field on 3rd down (45% third down conversion allowed), they had to have made that a focus this week. Packers only win this year was when Aaron was all hopped up on pain pills against the Bears. They get back to winning here.

Colts at -105 for 3 units. Texans are 0-3 and now travel to Indy. Colts gave the Eagles all they could handle last week. This Colts defense finally looks like a NFL defense allowing 21 points a game. Houston is 0-5 ATS in last 5 games, while Indy is 4-1 ATS. Weak offensive lines in this one, Hopkins and Hilton will prolly go off.

Andrew Luck over 263 passing yards at -145 for 2 units. Luck threw for 319 yards in his only other home game this season. Shoulder should be back to “basically 100%.” The over/under for this game is 48, which is a little above average. Could turn into a shootout.

Seahawks -3 for 2 units. This is one of those games that I want to bet a lot on, but I feel like I shouldn’t. Seahawks have not played well on the road this season, but they should be favored by more against the Cards right? Cardinals only convert 23% of their third downs on offense and now they meet Earl Thomas. Seattle averages over 100 yards per game more on offense than Arizona does on offense. Also, Seattle has a better defense… I can go on and on.

Chris Carson over 66 rushing yards at +114 for 4 units. Seattle gets up and runs him. Seattle gave him the ball 32 times on the ground last game and they won. That should be their formula like it was when they had the Legion of Boom and Beast Mode.

Browns +3 for 3 units. Baker Mayfield and their lottery pick defense gets the job done here. That is all.

Ravens +3 for 3 units. Steelers have not looked all that solid this season. I think this game should be a push so I will take the points. Justin Tucker could be the difference in this one. The man just doesn’t miss field goals. Big Ben is going to sacked multiple times in this one. Suggs is solid against the run and we all know what he can do as a pass rusher. JuJu and Antonio Brown can always go off and screw me here, but I like what I have seen from the Ravens so far this year. Steelers have an awful secondary. John Brown will have a big game.