College Basketball November 12th

70-62-2 on NCAAB last season and went up 8.95 units

0-2-1 this season down 5.00 units

VCU at -350 for 4 units. VCU plays well at the Siegel Center. Bowling Green played well against St. Johns, but let the game slip away in the second half. Justin Turner can ball for Bowling. VCU has a more balanced approach than they have had in the past few years. Justin Tillman is playing basketball professionally in Korea now, while Mo-Alie Cox is catching touchdowns for the Colts. Those two dominant big men are gone, but Issac Vann, Sean Mobley, Mike’l Simms, Michael Gilmore, Malik Crowfield, and De’Riante Jenkins can all ball. VCU wins at home.

Stanford +17 for 3 units. This UNC team is flying under the radar a little bit (Zion and Duke getting all the love) as they are balanced and talented. Maye is still there and Nassir Little is a beast of a freshman. Cameron Johnson finally looks to be healthy for UNC and has been paying well. Kenny Williams (the former VCU commit) can drain some 3s. Stanford is by far the most talented team UNC has played this season. Stanford beat a solid UNCW team on this east coast swing and will look to play well again here. Kezie Okpala will give the UNC big men some trouble. I think UNC wins, but they won’t cover.

Oklahoma at -400 for 4 units. Christian James and the Sooners get the win here. This line should be closer to -800. UTSA lost to St. Edwards, which is not even a division 1 basketball team. The -8 scares me a little bit because this feels like it should be closer to -15, but I am confident in the money line. -400 may not look like value, but there is value here.

NFL MNF – Giants at 49ers

45-32-3 on the NFL up 40.50 units

Back above 40 units for the season. Vegas went back to making money this weekend with the Browns, Titans, and Cardinals all covering against the Falcons, Patriots, and Chiefs. The Titans and Cardinals covering was easy for me to see coming, but the Browns dominating the Falcons threw me off a little.

Nothing like having NFC East teams in primetime Sunday and Monday night.. Big Dick Nick and the 49ers have a little confidence after shit-pumping the Raiders 35-3 last week. Gruden is a hell of a coach, maybe they will draft a wideout (Cooper) or pass rusher (Mack) with all their first round picks. The 49ers are favored in this game, but I can’t help but think this line is skewed because Nick Mullens looked so good against Oakland. Saquon and Odell can score a touchdown on any given play against this San Francisco defense that gives up over 26 points a game. New York’s defense gives up over 25 points a game as well, which leads me to my bet tonight.

Giants/49ers over 44.5 for 3 units. 49ers are 31st in DVOA on balls thrown to the left side of the field by their opponents. Odell should probably line up on that side if the Giants want to put up points. This total seems a few points lower than it should be. Every 49ers home game has gone over this number, except for last week when Oakland could only put up 3 points. Hot take: the Giants will score more than 3 points. I just see Barkley running all over this defense, Odell having some big plays, and Mullens coming back to Earth a little while still playing well. I see a 27-24 type game here.