NBA Tuesday

61-53-2 on NBA in 2018 up 9.28 units

11-11-1 on NBA this season up 0.08 units

The Thunder covering against a struggling Jazz team, Kings beating a dysfunctional Bulls team, and the Lakers showtiming D Wade and the Heat were all easy to see for me. Kuzma back in the lineup is a plus for the Lakers. Kuzma dropped 33 and 7 last night. I like Kuzma. In that clip I posted, when Lonzo makes a terrible decision to pass when he has an open layup, Kuzma just looks at him like “What the hell man?” I like that. The Jazz are 13th in the West ahead of only the Suns and, yes, you guessed it, the Rockets. Speaking of the Rockets..

Blazers +7 at -115 for 3 units. Rockets shouldn’t be favored by 7 against a playoff team. The Blazers won the first meeting 104-85. Harden did not play in that game. Trevor Ariza was a big loss for this Houston team. His above average defense, great 3-point shooting, and leadership is missed. I just think this will be a close game. If you’re feeling lucky you can sprinkle a little on the Blazers money line and then go to a bar near you.

Spurs/Suns over 217 for 3 units. 5 of the last 6 San Antonio games have gone over this number. Both teams allow over 113 points a game. TJ Warren coming back helps the Suns score. Devin Booker is still out. Suns don’t play much defense and hopefully that continues tonight.

Raptors ML at -160 for 3 units. Clippers jumped out to a hot start this season, but have been moving back to the mean over the past two games. That will continue tonight against one of the best teams in the league so far this season. Kawhi Leonard can ball. Luc Mbah a Moute is still out for the Clippers. LA struggled against the zone when they played the Heat. I wouldn’t be shocked if the Raptors throw out a zone tonight. Raptors are 10-3 on the road this season. Kawhi went to Martin Luther King High School in Riverside right outside of LA, so he will want to play well in his return home. Just like this spot.

Champions League Group Stage is Coming to an End..

68-51-6 on Soccer since World Cup up 30.82 units

Barcelona only favored by 1 over the weekend against Espanyol after the Messi Ballon d’Or snub was the easiest bet I have made in a while. It was “only” a 5 unit play for me though. I have to get better at making angles like that a max play. If you didn’t like Messi’s Free-kick in the first half. He scored a second half free-kick you’ll have to like (Sorry Espanyol fans, Lo Siento).

I mean just look at Messi’s dribbling before his assist on the Dembele goal. He runs away from defender #1 and then shields the ball from defender #2, then does a left to right foot chop quicker than you can sneeze to get around defender #1 again. Defender #3 tries to tackle. Messi falls on the ball and dodges that tackle along with Defender #1’s standing tackle. Then he throws it off Vidal’s leg and orders him to fall down because he sees a pass and doesn’t want Vidal to fuck it up. Then while defender #1 is sprinting at him, he threads the through ball to Dembele who displays a clinical finish.

Messi and Ronaldo are freaks for how long they have been dominant. Pele probably thinks Ronaldo is better cause he heads the ball, but I have never seen Ronaldo have a game like Messi had against Espanyol. You have to appreciate greatness while it is here. My last bottle of Pappy Van Winkle 23 Bourbon Whiskey taught me that. Messi will not be gracing us forever, but for now I will enjoy (betting on) him. Lebron James and Roger Federer are the only other players in all the major sports I can think of that are like Messi and Ronaldo in regards to longevity of dominance.

Alright sorry for the Messi session.. Onto today’s games,

Dortmund -1 at +120 for 2 units. Dortmund is already onto the next round. Monaco will finish last in the group. Dortmund hasn’t won either of their last two away games in this competition. So why bet Dortmund? Monaco have an injury list longer than Kevin Durant. Monaco just won’t be able to field a team that can match Dortmund’s talent.

Napoli +1.5 at -204 for 2 units.

Napoli/Liverpool over 3 for 2 units. Alright. If PSG beat Red Star (they will), then Liverpool either has to win 1-0 or by 2. Napoli are leading the group heading into these games. Liverpool is going to come out attacking because the only way the runner-ups move on is if they win. I mean, they could take the Mourinho approach and leave it late and then start sending in crosses to Virgil, but I think I know Klopp better than that. Napoli has played 9 away matches this season. 8 of them have gone over 2.5 goals. Klopp is 1-2 against Ancelotti. Salah scored a hat-trick over the weekend. We will see goals in this one. Napoli are leading the group for a reason, two goals is too much value to pass them up even on the road in my opinion. In an up and down match like this, there are a wide array of outcomes, but I don’t see Napoli losing by 2 or more happening.

Inter Milan -1 at -180 for 8 units. Inter know they clinch if they get more points than Tottenham does against Barcelona. PSV have not won a Champions League game this group stage. Also, PSV have given up at least two goals in every game this group stage. Icardi scored against PSV last time out. Inter have only lost at home once this season. Inter are the more talented team on the pitch and will go all out in this one. They win by 2 or more.

Atletico Madrid -1 at +124 for 2 units.

Atletico Madrid/Club Brugge KV under 2.5 at -122 for 2 units. Atletico win the group with a win. Diego Simeone might be the best coach in the world to have if you have to win against an inferior opponent. Atletico win 2-0. Club Brugge have secured Europa, but can’t make the round of 16. Brugge have played well so far..

Tottenham/Barcelona to Draw at +325 for 1 unit. Barcelona have not lost at the Camp Nou in the Champions League since the 13/14 season. They have already won the group, while Tottenham have to win to have a chance at moving on. It will be interesting to see what kind of lineup Barcelona puts out. If Messi and Suarez sit, Dembele and Countinho are no slouches. I may make a new post once the lineups come out, so stay tuned for that.. but I think a draw is the most likely outcome for this match and 3x your money is great value.