Australian Open Round 3 – Fritz/Federer

91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

13-11 on tennis in 2019 down 5.72 units

Taylor Fritz is going against Roger Federer tonight. I have never liked Fritz as much as Tiafoe and other American youngsters, but his play against Monfils was fun to watch. He challenged one call and him and Monfils had a fun interaction while waiting. Fritz is 0-3 vs top 10 players in his career with a loss to Federer. In a few years he may have the ability to beat Federer, but it should still be a fun watch.

Tomas Berdych at -410 for 3 units. Schwartzman has not looked his best so far this tournament, but this isn’t his favorite surface. Berdych has looked great. Berdych hasn’t lost a set yet. Berdych has won 10 of 11 third round matches here. This would be a higher unit play, but Berdych has only played 7 matches over the past 6 months. He is 6-1 in those matches though.

Andreas Seppi at -105 for 6 units. Let me start off by saying I love Frances Tiafoe and his story. He is an uber-talented player than can be a role model and even more to young people around the World. The 5 seed Kevin Anderson was up a set and a break on Tiafoe, then Tiafoe won every set to win the match 3 sets to 1. I think Kevin Anderson’s tweaked elbow played a major role in Tiafoe winning. Tiafoe mixed up his shots and placed some great winners. The young American stepped up to the occasion. Seppi had 14 aces and 38 winners in the last round. Seppi has a 4-1 record in the third round here, with one of those wins being against Federer. Tiafoe may be more athletic and spry, but Seppi’s experience and form will get him the win.

Bautisita Agut +2.5 sets at -318 for 4 units. I like the Bautista Agut ML a lot. Karen Khachanov may be the best tennis player in the World that hardly anyone talks about. Bautista Agut just played 2 grueling 5 setters to get here. Agut’s over 8 hours of court time will catch up to him here, but not before he grabs at least a set.

Marin Cilic at -364 for 3 units. Cilic has beat Verdasco the last 5 times. Cilic is in great form. Not going to overthink this one.