Parlay Day

Waiting on my Hornets over 35.5 and Bucks over 47.5 wins money before I bet big again. NC State being up 2 with the ball and 10 seconds left but still losing took a lot out of me. Tough when a redshirt senior turns the ball over on an inbound pass instead of calling a timeout. I don’t like Garrison Mathews of Lipscomb.

7-5 on parlays up 18.76 units

Virginia/Michigan/Simona Halep for 3 units to win 7.24 units.

FSU +8.5/Michigan/Virginia/Simona Halep/Francis Tiafoe +1.5 sets/Roger Federer for 1 unit to win 10.14 units.

These plays are either WTA/ATP Miami or NCAA tournament events. Parlays are the only thing keeping me afloat so I will start sharing them more. Just have to be able to stomach some losses with parlays as they are less likely to win. If both of these lose I am waiting till my NBA season long bets gets paid and using that on the Masters and Final Four.

NSFW – Nurkic Injury – Is This Tyler Ford Referee Serious?

I want to focus on the ref, but If you want to see the injury here it is.

@JORGMUZIK is right. Tyler Ford is the referee that trips on Nurkic’s BROKEN LEG!! I know ref’s are blind and seemingly always bet on the team I don’t bet on, but are they deaf too!! You could literally hear his leg snap. Paul George’s injury is the only injury NBA injury I can think of that comes close to this and Tyler Ford just tripped over his BROKEN LEG!! I feel for Rip City as Nurkic has been one of the best centers in the league this season. His size is imperative for Portland, especially since they no longer have Ed Davis as a backup (David is averaging 8.7 rebounds a game on the Nets this season and had 14 rebounds last night against his former team). Get well Nurkic. You hate to see this happen, especially as a team is gearing up for the playoffs. I hit a baby deer with my 4runner the other night. That fawn’s awareness is still better than Tyler Ford’s awareness. Unreal ignorance from that ref.

GG.Bet Sydney Invitational Group B Opening Match

2-0 on eSports up 6.28 units 

Sprout at +140 for 3 units. Sprout will have better team play as Heroic are still working stavn into their team. Heroic does have the ability to get frags, but Sprout’s strats and awareness should get them the win as the underdog here. The map hasn’t been announced as of writing, but Sprout has a clear advantage on inferno, train, cache, and nuke. If it is one of those maps I feel very confident, if it is dust2 or mirage, I am still happy. Overpass is the only map that would worry me as a Sprout backer. faveN looked great in Sprout’s loss against Movistar Riders. SyrsoN had 56 AWP kills in that match. If they can replicate that production, they win this match easy. Great value here.

NCAA Tournament – Round of 32 Continues

70-62-2 on NCAAB last season and went up 8.95 units

38-40-1 this season down 29.95 units

Tennessee/UNC/Virginia Tech/Virginia Parlay risking 10 units to win 9.92 units. Iowa struggles defending the paint. Tennessee’s offense is great at scoring down-low. Cincinnati had problems getting into the paint once Iowa started pressing, but when they did get inside they scored. Iowa made enough 3s and pressed well enough to rattle Cincinnati for the win. Tennessee won’t let that happen. Iowa has no one that can guard Admiral Schofield. UNC got “lucky” here because I think Utah State was the tougher matchup for the Tar Heels. UNC scored 95 points against Syracuse’s zone. Washington runs a zone defense. UNC is shooting under 30% from deep in postseason play. They shoot better today and get the win.

Virginia Tech played Liberty in an exhibition game this season and won by 16. This is the first time VT has played another school from Virginia in the NCAAs. Liberty’s Caleb Homesley had 30 points in their win over Mississippi State. Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Kerry Blackshear of Virginia Tech will be too much down-low for the Flames. Also, Justin Robinson felt “better than expected” for VT.

UVA plays an Oklahoma team that was red hot in the first round. The Sooners have already made it further this season than they did with Trae Young last season. Trae Young hit the game winner last night in the Hawks win over the 76ers. UVA struggled in the first half against Gardner-Webb, but they turned it on in the second half to avoid losing to a 16-seed for the second time. Oklahoma lost by 20 to Wisconsin. UVA is a better version of the Badgers. I don’t think the Sooners have a matchup advantage anywhere on the court, take the Cavaliers.

Duke -13 for 7 units. UCF has Tacko Fall and that’s about it. VCU struggled against them because VCU doesn’t have a big man taller than 6-foot-8. Tacko said he will not allow Zion to dunk on him.. why would you say that? Has he seen Zion play? UCF coach Johnny Dawkins was a Duke player and long-time assistant. Dawkins was the 1986 national player of the year for Duke as a senior. Zion will be the 2019 national player of the year as a freshman. Fran Fraschilla tweeted: “In the minds of Jay Bilas, Tommy Amaker and Coach K himself, there might not be a Duke dynasty without the commitment of Johnny Dawkins to the Blue Devils in 1982. The hoops world will come full circle on Sunday.”

Plenty of storylines in this game, but Duke’s depth and ability to limit UCF’s inside presence gets them the double digit win.

Buffalo at +163 for 7 units. Buffalo is one of the best offensive teams in college basketball. Senior guard C.J. Massinburg played great in the first round for Buffalo. Jarrett Culver’s shot selection has been suspect this season in the Texas Tech games I have watched. Culver should drive over and over again in this one. If he settles for 3-point shots, Buffalo should consider themselves lucky. I think this will be a close game and there is value in the underdog.

Round of 64 Continues

70-62-2 on NCAAB last season and went up 8.95 units

37-39-1 this season down 36.43 units

North Carolina -22/Virginia Tech parlay at +120 for 12 units.

Buffalo/Washington – Utah State over 135 at +154 for 12 units.

Jim Valvano said it best Don’t give up. Don’t ever give up.

MARCH MADNESS IS HERE!! First Round Predictions

70-62-2 on NCAAB last season and went up 8.95 units

37-34-1 this season down 0.43 units

I am going to go up 20 units at least over the next two weeks. I feel it deep down in my plums.

Louisville at -232 for 3 units. My view of this Louisville team is skewed because I watched them dominate UNC, but take away that win and Louisville has still outperformed many people’s expectations for them this season. Daniel Oturo is Minnesota’s only good big man (no offense to Matz Stockman or Eric Curry). If Louisville can attack him early and get him in foul trouble, they will pull away. When Jordan Nwora scores over 20 points Louisville wins (unless they are playing Duke or Tennessee). Minnesota lasts longer than Rick Pitino does with a woman.. not saying much as they will still be knocked out in the first round. Rick Pitino tweeted today that he thinks Kentucky would lose in the Final Four… Nobody gives a shit Rick. Kentucky won’t make it there anyway.

LSU -7 for 2 units. Everyone and their mom is on Yale because of the Will Wade news. Yale’s Miye Oni will be in the NBA one day, but LSU has enough talent on defense to limit him. LSU bounces back from an SEC loss to Florida and gets the double digit win today. Naz Reid is a grown man down low for LSU. He has a couple inches and about 40 lbs on Yale’s best big man Jordan Bruner. Reid and Tremont Waters do enough for LSU. Is water wet? I don’t know, but Tremont Waters is wet.

Auburn -6 for 2 units. New Mexico State is very good. They lost to Kansas by 2 when Kansas had not kicked anyone off of their team yet. New Mexico State is also on a 19 game winning streak. This game is in Utah. Utah is a lot a closer to New Mexico than Alabama. Even with all that said, Auburn’s ability to rebound and drain 3s will get them the win. I doubted them against Tennessee, won’t do it here.

Side note: Tennessee looked so damn poor against Auburn in that SEC championship game. Rick Barnes couldn’t take a team with D.J. Augustine and Kevin Durant to the Sweet Sixteen. Tennessee looked unprepared and rattled in that game. I am staying away from the Volunteers in this tournament..

Florida State -8 for 2 units. FSU’s basketball team might be able to beat FSU’s football team at football. That’s how deep they are. FSU doesn’t have a player averaging over 13 points a game, but they have 8 players averaging over 6 points a game. I watched the Vermont win over UMBC and Anthony Lamb is a beast. FSU has too many guys that can rotate to him on defense for him to go off like that in this game. FSU pulls away in the second half.

Nevada at -148 for 9 units. Not only is this a Florida fade, I love Nevada in this tournament. Trey Porter has been the main reason Nevada’s defense has been so much better this season in my opinion. Porter is a beast in the paint. Jazz Johnson shoots 45% from 3 for Nevada. Jordan Caroline and Caleb Martin both average over 17 points a game for the Wolfpack. Nevada limped through their post-season tournament, but I think they were looking ahead to the NCAA tournament. Their seeding is not as good as they thought it would be at the start of the season (due to the PAC-12 out of conference games not being as good of wins as they thought they would be). Nevada has more experience and better top-end-talent. Nevada will go on 2 or 3 big runs and win the game because of it. If Nevada loses, I’m gonna be like this kid..

Image result for march madness gif

Old Dominion +12.5 for 5 units. I kept betting on ODU in the Conference-USA tournament and they kept winning. Even ODU fans were like I don’t know if they are going to win this game, but I believed! Purdue has a great point guard in Carsen Edwards. Their offense revolves around him, as it should. ODU has 4 good guards in B.J. Stith, Ahmad Caver, Marquis Goodwin, and Justice Kithcart. Also, ODU has two 7-footers, while Purdue has none. I think ODU has a chance to pull off the upset here and I love them to cover 13 points.

NCAA Tournament First Four Preview

70-62-2 on NCAAB last season and went up 8.95 units

37-33-1 this season up 3.57 units

St John’s at +115 for 4 units. Shamorie Ponds is averaging 19.5 pts, 5.2 assists, and 4.2 rebounds a game for St. John’s. He is a baller. Ponds is from Brooklyn and plays like it. Shamorie Ponds hasn’t been to the NCAA tournament before, but the Red Storm’s Justin Simon and Marvin Clark II have. St. Johns played poorly against Marquette in their almost 30 point loss to them recently, but ASU is a better matchup for the Red Storm.

Arizona State has been in the news recently because Lori Loughlin wanted her daughter to get into any school but ASU, so she bribed and frauded her daughter into the University of Southern California. I love a good ricochet shot. ASU fouls a lot and struggles to shoot from deep, not a good combo. If St. John’s can limit ASU’s pace and fastbreak opportunities, they win this game. ASU’s size could be a problem (4 guys over 6-foot-7), but I like St. John’s guard play to seem them through.

ATP Indian Wells Final – Roger Federer vs Dominic Thiem

91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

34-29 on tennis in 2019 down 31.90 units

I was bummed we didn’t get to watch another Federer/Nadal chapter, but the walkover means Federer will be fresher for this final.

Roger Federer -4 at +111 for 4 units. Federer is going for a record 6 titles here. The Swiss #1 has won 10 matches in a row. Roger has faced 18 players with a one-handed backhand in hardcourt finals in his career.. he has won them all. Thiem would tie his career-high ranking if he wins here. I don’t think he does. Federer is winning over 80% of his first serve points, if he can continue that he will cover. A rested, hungry Federer gets the job done today.

Bubble Watch + SEC, American, and Big 10 Tournament Championship Predictions

12-3 over the past five days. 5 winning days in a row. I love March Madness.

Payton Pritchard was named the PAC-12 Tournament’s Most Outstanding Player after Oregon’s win over Washington. During the broadcast, Bill Walton said this about Pritchard, “Some people when they face pressure, they shrivel up like a midget. Others soak it up like sponge”. I assume he meant Pritchard overcame the pressure, but it is tough to tell with the man that saw the Grateful Dead live over 800 times. Never change Bill.

Belmont, NC State, Alabama, Indiana, Texas, Ole Miss, Florida, St. John’s, Arizona State, Temple, TCU, Ohio State, Lipscomb, UNC-G, and Clemson all are right on the bubble. They all have to be nervous about making the NCAA tournament. Only 8, at most, of those teams mentioned are getting in. VCU, Washington, and Gonzaga all losing in their conference tournaments hurt those bubble teams immensely. Good luck guessing which teams the committee will pick. NC State is ranked highly by the new metric the committee is using. Belmont lost to Green Bay, Purdue, and JSU x2 this season.. that’s it. Ole Miss beat Auburn twice and barely lost to Tennessee/Kentucky, but that’s about it. I do think all 3 of those teams get in… but they don’t ask me.

70-62-2 on NCAAB last season and went up 8.95 units

37-30-1 this season up 20.57 units

Michigan at -102 for 6 units. Michigan lost to Michigan State twice this season already, but the Wolverines have been dominating in this tournament. Cassius Winston, the BIG-10 player of the year, was a problem for Michigan in their two losses to MSU this season. His pick-n-roll game is too smooth. Michigan got called for some cheap fouls and lost their composure in their loss in East Lansing. The coaches and players know this and they won’t let that get to them in this one. Ignas Brazdeikis fouled out with over 5 minutes left in that game. Michigan has to attack Xavier Tillman and hopefully get him in foul trouble. Michigan does the things they didn’t do in their two losses to MSU this season to get the win.

Houston U at -202 for 4 units. Houston beat Cincinnati by 17 just 7 days ago. Houston looked so good against UConn too. This is strictly an eye test bet for me. I have watched Houston’s past two games and I don’t think Cincinnati is good enough to beat them at this point in time.

Tennessee at -223 for 8 units. Auburn rely on 3-point shooting. Their legs are going to be tired. That is not a good combo. Tennessee were beating Auburn by 6 at halftime of their recent game, but blew the lead and lost by 4. Tennessee had 13 turnovers in that game compared to Auburn’s 5. Auburn shot 38% from deep in that game that was at home. Tennessee’s defense will step up in this one like it did over the final 3 minutes against Kentucky. Auburn shoots worse from deep and turns the ball over more than the last time these two met for the Tennessee win.