Month: March 2019

Arsenal and Chelsea are 5th and 6th respectively in the Premier League. Arsenal are one point behind Manchester United for the 4th Champions League spot. Chelsea are two points behind. Sevilla and Valencia are 6th and 7th respectively in La Liga. Sevilla are 5 points away from the Champions League spot. Valencia are 6 points away. Similarly, Frankfurt are 3 points out of the Champions League spots in the Bundesliga. The question for their managers are, do we rest in the first leg and focus on the league, dominate the first leg and then rest, or just rest and then focus on the Champions League spots in the league? Not an easy spot for coaches. Anyway, onto today’s games..

92-78-9 on Soccer in 2018 up 8.17 units

32-26-6 on Soccer in 2019 down 0.41 units

Sevilla -1 at -132 for 4 units. Sevilla are outscoring opponents 24-1 at The Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán Stadium in European play. I have been to a few games there in Sevilla and was disappointed that the beer was alcohol free… but Sevilla’s product on the field was great. Slavia Prague have never made it to this stage. Sevilla have won this competition 3 times. Ben Yedder and Sarabia are starting, which I love. Andre Silva is not starting for Sevilla, which I also love. Munir is getting another chance. Sevilla will want to dominate this game so they can rest a little in the second leg and focus on the league. I think they achieve that goal.

Villarreal/Zenit over 2 at -129 for 3 units. Zenit’s home games average over 2 goals a game in this competition. Zenit have been scoring most of their home goals after halftime lately.. so don’t get all nervous on me at halftime. Sardar Azmoun has found fine form since arriving in St. Petersburg recently. Dzyuba is always a threat. Villarreal’s last 4 games have all seen at least 2 goals. First legs overs are always a little dicey, but I like this one.

Arsenal Vs. Rennes over 2/ Inter Vs. Frankfurt over 2/ Chelsea Parlay risking 3 units at +140. Arsenal’s defense has been lacking ever since Holding went out with injury. Ben Arfa has been great this calendar year for Rennes. Aubameyang, Ozil, and Iwobi should provide enough creativity and pace to get a goal. Rennes’ last 7 games have all seen at least two goals. Rennes impressed me against Real Betis. If you don’t know why I love Frankfurt overs, then you haven’t been reading me. The Recap: Luka Jovic and Sebastien Haller.

Chelsea winning this competition would do wonders for Maurizio Sarri and his job security. Granted, winning this competition only kept Mourinho around in Manchester for a little while longer. I personally don’t think Chelsea will finish in the top 4 with road games at Liverpool and United still on the schedule. Also, I’m 100% sure Hazard will leave for Real Madrid or other greener pastures this offseason if Chelsea do not make Champions League. They go for it and get the win at home today against Dynamo Kiev. Kiev won the easiest group and then beat Olympiakos to get to this stage. Their “luck” runs out today.

Tottenham were up 3-0 on Dortmund after the 1st leg. They won the 2nd leg 1-0 behind this Harry Kane goal. He doesn’t miss those. Dortmund need to figure out their defense quickly if they want to win the Bundesliga. They are beating Bayern on just goal difference after being up in 1st for pretty much the entire season. Dortmund have gone from the hottest team in Europe to possibly no trophies this season. Wild. Tottenham barely made it out of the group, but now they seem to be rolling in this tournament.

Ajax played better than Real Madrid in the 1st leg, which I wrote about previously; however, they did not get the result they needed losing 2-1 at home. Allowing Real Madrid to get 2 away goals made many think they dug themselves too deep of a hole against the 3 time defending champs. Ramos couldn’t play because of a card suspension and Ronaldo is in Italy. Ajax didn’t care.

Ajax won the game 4-1 behind Tadic, Ziyech, Neres, and all their youngsters. Tadic’s 2 assists were simply sublime. Assist 1. Assist 2. Oh yeah, and then he scored his own. Varane missed an easy early header that hit the post and before you know it Ajax were up 2-0. Lucas and Junior Vinicius had to be subbed off early due to injury, which spelled doom for Real Madrid. Real Madrid pays more for Gareth Bale than Ajax does for their entire first team squad… and reserves… and youth team combined. Unreal stuff from the great young Dutch team.

Schone’s silly good free kick was just icing on the cake for Ajax and their fans.

Porto were down 2-1 after the 1st leg against Roma, but they won the second leg at home 3-1 in overtime to move on. This was the “weakest” matchup at this stage, but Porto has enough attacking options to cause some trouble in the next round. Pepe and Dzeko had this comically cute moment. I like Dzeko, but that is embarrassing.

Manchester United lost to PSG 2-0 at Old Trafford and the comeback in Paris seemed insurmountable with no Darmian, Herrera, Jones, Lingard, Martial, Mata, Matic, Pogba, Sanchez, or Valencia. Manchester United started a midfield of Fred, McTominay, and Young and beat PSG 3-1 to advance. Rashford and Lukaku outplayed Mbappe and Di Maria. I do feel a little bad for Di Maria going out against his former club here. He did not have a good time in Manchester (house got robbed, wife was unhappy), but United fans really seem to dislike him too much IMO. I am United fan simply because Ibra played for them… But Ole Gunnar Solskjær is making me more and more of a fan by the day.

How the hell was Mourinho’s United not scoring goals in bunches with Rashford, Pogba, and Lukaku? Lukaku scored the first goal with great pace and betting finishing. You could tell PSG were nervous after that.. Lukaku then scored a second on Buffon’s poor goalkeeping. It is almost like Buffon doesn’t want to win this competition. Fitting that PSG signed him really. Finally, United were awarded a penalty for this, which Rashford put home. Absolutely amazing week of Champions League football. Until next week…

92-78-9 on Soccer in 2018 up 8.17 units

32-26-6 on Soccer in 2019 down 0.41 units

92-78-9 on Soccer in 2018 up 8.17 units

30-23-6 on Soccer in 2019 down 0.75 units

AC Milan at -194 for 5 units. Milan is on an 8 match unbeaten run. Milan beat Sassuolo 4-1 the last time they met. That was before Krzysztof Piątek arrived in Milan. Krzysztof has 7 goals in 7 appearances for AC Milan. The ‘Rossoneri’ have only lost twice at home all season. Castillejo, Kessie, Suso, and others are finding more pace since the addition of Piątek. Milan stay hot at home.

Bayern Leverkusen at -222 for 3 units. Leverkusen have been playing great football of late, but the results just haven’t quite been there. They lost on away goals to Krasnodar in the Europa League and to Dortmund in the league 3-2, which has exemplified this problem with not getting the result. Now that they are bounced from Europa, they can focus on getting top 5. They are two points out of that Europa Group spot as of writing. Volland, Bailey, Brandt, and Havertz are all fun to watch for Leverkusen. Freiburg have not lost in over 2/3rds of the games that they are an underdog in… Going against that stat here.

Sevilla at -103 for 3 units. Huesca and Sevilla are not on the same level. Sevilla > Huesca. The reason this line is so “good” is well because, even though it pains me to say as a Sevillista, Sevilla sucks on the road. Truth hurts. Sevilla have to win these games if they want to make the Champions League spots. Sevilla could just win the Europa again, but beating Huesca seems like the simpler task. Andre Silva’s 35-million-Euro-buy-option was declined by Sevilla for this summer and he will return to AC Milan. Piątek makes that awkward for him. Silva will 100% end his cold streak and score here if Pablo Machin plays him now that Sevilla has moved on.

Monaco at +137 for 2 units. Monaco are hot. New year, New Club.

Manchester United/Manchester City Parlay at -133 for 2 units. Lingard, Mata, and Herrera all have thigh injuries for United, but they still have a more talented squad than Southampton. 6 of the 8 league goals Paul Pogba has scored since Ole Gunnar Solskjær came along, have been at Old Trafford. United have only lost to PSG since Ole Gunnar was appointed in December. Southampton lack the defense to stop United’s options. City did not impress me in their last game against West Ham, although if Silva buries his relatively easy chance in the 3rd minute, that game is completely different. Vegas has them favored by a lot though so I will trust Vegas on this one. Also, Arsenal just dropped la bomba de cinco on Bournemouth. City will score.