Month: June 2019

Baseball

MLB June 10th – David Ortiz is Recovering from Being Shot

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David Ortiz was shot in the back in his native Dominican Republic on Sunday. The Boston Red Sox are paying for him to be transported by air to Massachusetts for treatment. David Ortiz is one of my top 5 favorite players of all-time. I’ll never forget being at his two home-run game against the Athletics in April 2012.. or his many post-season runs. The video of his shooter getting beat up is NSFW.. but I will post it here

Wild scenes in the Dominican Republic. Ortiz has done a lot for his home country, but it is never enough for some people. The rumor is they were trying to rob him. Sad. The suspect is in custody. Onto lighter topics..

92-83 on MLB last season and went up 34.31 units

17-14 on MLB this season up 1.10 units

Tampa Bay Rays at -180 for 3 units. Charlie Morton is 7-0 this season. Morton has one of the highest velocities on average in the MLB this season. He’s got the stuff. Tanner Anderson, the starter for Oakland tonight, had a 6.26 ERA in AAA. Now he plays one of the better MLB teams so far this season. Anderson went to Harvard.. so at least he has that going for him. What a nerd.

Los Angeles Dodgers -1½ at +100 for 2 units. LAD has covered -1.5 in Hyun-Jin Ryu’s last 6 starts. Ryu has one of the best strikeout cutters in baseball. Griffin Canning is starting for the Angels. He is a rookie and the blue team’s lineup should feast on him. If you missed Max Muncy making MadBum mad last time out, check out the instagram. It is a pretty awesome homer and interaction. Muncy hit the ball about 430 feet into the Bay and told MadBum “to get it out of the ocean”. Muncy may not know the geography of the Bay very well… but he yacked that ball so well he can call it the ocean for all I care.

Basketball

NBA Finals Game 5

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7-5 on the NBA playoffs up 3.55 units

Warriors +1.5 at -110 for 9 units. Raptors have worked Golden State over these past two games, but I think tonight is a lot closer of a game. Looney and Thompson should play better in their second game back from injury. Draymond Green, Steph, and the NBA want this series to go at least 6 games. KD may or may not be back.. but I think he will and this line will move to Warriors -1 or -2 once he is declared active. The Raptors used a 37 point third quarter to put away the Warriors 105-92 in Game 4. Golden State knows they have to come out stronger after halftime. Golden State hasn’t scored over 109 points in this series. I think they break that number in this one.

Klay Thompson of the Golden State Warriors will score 24 or more points at -110 for 2 units. I said it last game… If the Warriors want to win, Klay has to score. He did score and they lost. I like this prop even more if KD is out.

Baseball

MLB June 8th

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92-83 on MLB last season and went up 34.31 units

16-14 on MLB this season down 1.19 units

Dodgers -1.5 at -131 for 3 units. Hill held the Phillies runless in his last start. Hill is is 7-2 with a 2.26 ERA in 14 career starts against the Giants. Dodgers can’t lose 3 in a row right? Hill is getting healthier and healthier and I like him to continue his upward trajectory today. Jeffrey Alan Samardzija, the former Notre Dame football All-American, did not look good in his last start against the Marlins..

Uncategorized

Belmont Stakes

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0-0 on the horses

Bourbon War will finish ahead of Master Fencer at -101 for 3 units.

My horse racing knowledge is small, but I know I will be drinking a lot of bourbon today… so gotta bet on Bourbon War. That is all.

Soccer

UEFA Euro 2020 Qualifying

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92-78-9 on Soccer in 2018 up 8.17 units

36-30-9 on Soccer in 2019 down 1.41 units

Germany/Belarus over 3 at -101 for 7 units. First ever competitive match between these two countries. Belarus are last in their group after a 4-0 loss to the Dutch, followed by a 2-1 loss to Northern Ireland. Die Mannschaft will want to play well against Belarus and Estonia because Northern Ireland and the Netherlands are not going away. Gnabry, Sane, and Reus should be able to help each other score. Although it is still early, Belarus almost have to win this game.. so I expect them to play aggressive. Belarus have given up 3.5 goals a game at home against top 20 nations recently. Germany averaged over 4 goals a game in World Cup qualifying. Germany will score.

Basketball

NBA Finals Game 4 – Klay Thompson is Back, Looney Might Be, Kevin Durant is Out

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5-4 on the NBA playoffs down 0.51 units

Kevin Durant is still out, but Klay Thompson is back for the Warriors. Golden State missed Looney and Klay’s defense in Game 3.

Klay Thompson of the Golden State Warriors will score over 18.5 points at -112 for 5 units. Klay is going to have to score 20 if Golden State wants to win. Steph’s playoff  career-high 47 points still had the Warriors losing by double digits. He needs help and Klay should supply it.

Danny Green of the Toronto Raptors will score over 9 points at -102 for 5 units. Danny has gone over this number 66.7% of the time in this series. Siakam, Leonard, and Gasol seem to be drawing the defense in the paint, which leads shooters like Green open. He runs like a dinosaur, but he shoots like John Wick.

Toronto Raptors +4½ at -110 for 5 units. Cousins, McKinnie, and Bell all got exposed on defense. Looney is great at guarding screens, unlike Cousins. Looney’s absence is noticed and he is questionable for Game 4. DeMarcus did not produce on offense to make up for his average defense in Game 3. Kawhi is in the zone.. if is on the court persona doesn’t prove this.. here is him not dapping Powell up and seemingly telling him the court is that way. Board man gets paid. The Frank Ocean’s Novacane lyrics come to mind when I think of Kawhi. “Zero emotion, muted emotion. Pitch corrected, computed emotion”.

Toronto is shooting well. Nick Nurse is coaching superbly. Kawhi is Kawhi. Pascal “I gave up being a preacher to dunk on fools” Siakam has been amazing. Danny Green and the former Shocker, Fred VanFleet, have been great as well. This Fred guy needs to have more kids. I think Game 4 will close like Game 2.. so I will take the points and the team that has been playing, well, more like a team.

Tennis

French Open Semi-Finals – Federer Vs. Nadal Prediction

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91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

38-44 on tennis in 2019 down 34.34 units

Two players are still alive in the semis to complete the double career grand slam in the same tournament for the first time ever.. but neither are the favorite. Djokovic and Federer may be the best tennis players ever… but Nadal is the GOAT at Roland-Garros.

Rafa Nadal +4.5 aces at -110 for 10 units. Wawrinka had 3 more aces than Federer in the last round. Federer has only covered this number in 1 of his 5 matches so far this year at Roland-Garros. Now he plays the king of these Parisian courts. Nadal has had more aces in each of his matchups here this year. Federer’s first serve was at 62% against Wawrinka. Nadal’s was at 72% against Nishikori. I think Federer and Nadal have a similar amount of aces in this match. I’ll gladly take the +4.5 for a high % of my bankroll.

Rafa Nadal -2.5 sets at -101 for 6 units. Nadal is going to eat Federer’s backhand alive. The cold wet courts should help Nadal even more. Federer has held in 31 straight service games against Nadal, but none of those were on clay. Nadal leads the all-time H2H 13-2 on clay. Federer is 15-23 against Nadal and 112-13 against all other left-handed players. The stats go on and on for these two greats, but most are in Nadal’s favor here in Paris.

Baseball

MLB June 7th

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92-83 on MLB last season and went up 34.31 units

16-12 on MLB this season up 2.81 units

Cardinals at +112 for 2 units. Bet on the Cards the last time Miles Mikolas pitched. That game was against the Cubs. This game is against the Cubs. Mikolas allowed 1 earned run in that game. Mikolas has had a quality start in 6 of his last 7 starts. Cole Hamels gets the start opposite of Mikolas again. Hamels looked solid against St. Louis last time… This should be another close game.. +112 is decent value.

Tigers at +125 for 2 units. Hate betting against the Twins, but Matthew Boyd. Boyd is only 5-4, but he has 97 strikeouts in 77.2 innings pitched this season. The Twins have to come back to Earth sometime right?

Baseball

MLB June 6th

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92-83 on MLB last season and went up 34.31 units

13-11 on MLB this season up 2.36 units

The big news is that the Cubs signed Kimbrel to a 3-year deal. Chicago needed a strong closer if they wanted to make another World Series run. They couldn’t have signed him in the Winter without giving up draft picks, but now there is no “penalty” for signing Kimbrel. 54 Million doll hairs gets them one of the best closers in baseball. Kimbrel had more than a couple shaky innings in Boston’s World Series run.. but at the end of the day he got the job done. The Cubs make the first big move of the season.

Rays -1.5 at -123 for 2 units. Gonna keep riding the hot team. I was unable to write yesterday, but the Rays were my only bet and they won.

Red Sox at -141 for 2 units. Boston has scored 8 runs in each of their last 3 games. The Royals have lost 5 in a row.

Braves at -120 for 7 units. Atlanta hits right-handers better than Pittsburgh. Both starters today are righties. I have been fading Chris Archer all year. Mike Foltynewicz has not been the best pitcher for the Braves this season, but St. Louis did not earn a run off of him in his last road start. Mike has at least 7 strikeouts in his last two starts. Chris Archer has given up at least 3 earned runs in each of his last 6 starts. Braves will be able to get on base against Archer, here’s to hoping they get the timely hits when needed.

Rangers/Brewers Parlay risking 2 units to win 3.4 units. Marlins and Orioles suck. That is all.

Baseball

MLB June 4th – Lot of Lopsided Matchups

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92-83 on MLB last season and went up 34.31 units

11-9 on MLB this season up 7.76 units

Twins at +121 for 3 units. Twins just won 3 of 4 against a solid Rays team, now they play the struggling I-words. The Twins have played one less game than Cleveland, but have 48 more homers. Devin Smeltzer looked good in his first career start against Milwaukee last week, allowing 0 runs in 6 innings. Smeltzer starts tonight for Minnesota. Minnesota has the best record on the road in the league at 21-9. Good value here. Shane Bieber allowed 3 homers in his last start for Cleveland.

Giants +1.5 at -167 for 2 units. Bumgarner Vs. Syndergaard. These two star pitchers have eerily similar stats this season when it comes to WHIP, hits, strikeouts, inning pitched, home runs given up, 3-pointers made, and wins. The Giants have won 3 of their last 4, while the Mets have lost 4 of their last 5. San Francisco’s bats seemed to have woken up against Baltimore.. here’s to hoping that continues.

Dodgers –1.5 at -135 for 4 units. LA’s bats are still hot and now they get their best starter this season on the mound, Hyun-Jin Ryu, against their rival Diamondbacks. Ryu was named National League Pitcher of the Month in May. Taylor Clarke only pitched two innings for Arizona in his last start. Bellinger and Muncy will be back in the lineup tonight. Clarke may struggle again tonight..

Rays -1.5 at -167 for 6 units. Detroit’s lineup is a career 1-11 against Blake Snell. Snell has had 3 straight quality starts. The Rays scored 7 runs in the last 3 innings they played.. in a loss to the red-hot Twins. Mercer, Cabrera, and Harrison are still out for Detroit. Rays are heavily favored for a reason, they get back on the winning track tonight. Tampa has the better starter, bullpen, bats, and defense..