Month: June 2019

Baseball

MLB June 3rd – Dodgers at Diamondbacks and Phillies at Padres Predictions

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92-83 on MLB last season and went up 34.31 units

10-8 on MLB this season up 7.44 units

Philadelphia Phillies -1½ at +113 for 4 units. The Phillies have won 5 of their last 6 games by 2 runs or more when Aaron Nola starts. Nola is starting tonight. This is the first time Bryce Harper and Manny Machado will face each other.. the two most expensive free agents of 2018-19 off-season. I am just glad neither went to the Yankees. Both teams have better records at this point in the season than they did last year, partly because of their free agent signings. MLB attendance is down about 1.5% this season compared to last year, but Philly and San Diego’s (which of course in German means whale’s vagina) attendance numbers are up. Nola is 1-0 at Petco Park with a 2.25 ERA in two starts. Aaron Nola and the Philly’s ability to get on base get them the win in Game 1 of the Free Agent World Series.

Los Angeles Dodgers -1½ at +108 for 4 units. The Dodgers are on their longest winning streak of the season at 5 games. They lost 6 games in a row earlier in the year, but they hot now. Justin Turner should be back in the lineup for LA. Robbie Ray is starting for the Diamondbacks. Ketel Marte has 5 homers in his last 9 games for the LA. Freese has homered in his last two games. Bellinger is on a 10 game hit streak… Comparable starting pitchers, but the Dodgers have the hotter bats..

Tennis

French Open – Djokovic, Del Potro, and Zverev

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91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

36-43 on tennis in 2019 down 41.53 units

Alexander Zverev +1 at -108 for 8 units. Fabio Fognini is the better clay-court player, but Zverev is ranked higher. Their H2H is tied at 1-1 on clay courts, with Fognini winning the most recent meeting in Monaco earlier this year. The German was in a funk when that loss to Fognini happened, now he is in better form. Zverev has won 7 matches in a row, but most would agree he still isn’t at the top of his game. Fognini has lost to his past two opponents of Alexander’s caliber (Thiem and Tsitsipas). Roberto Bautista-Agut was able to break Fognini fairly easily in the last round, but the Italian’s talent was enough to overcome those break deficits.. Fognini is not as talented as Zverev.. at least not consistently. I could see Zverev getting up 3-0 in a set and Fognini throwing the set away, which would obviously help this cover. Zverev’s two-handed backhand and ability to move Fognini around the court will get him the cover.

Novak Djokovic -8.5 at -108 for 3 units. Struff struggles against strong returners and Djokovic is the best returner in the game.

Juan Martin Del Potro at -194 for 3 units. Del Potro is back. This line should be closer to -250 in my opinion.

MMA

UFC Fight Night 153 Prediction – Alexander “The Mauler” Gustafsson Vs. Anthony Smith

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6-1 on UFC/MMA in 2018 up 9.90 units

16-9-1 in 2019 up 9.93 units

Gustafsson at -290 for 2 units.

Gustafsson/Smith under 3.5 rounds at -120 for 4 units. Smith is on a short turnaround. He has the power to knock Gustafsson out early, but I think The Mauler’s chin holds up and he gets the win in the second round. Smith went the distance against Jon Jones a few months ago. Gustafsson lost in the 3rd round to Jones in his most recent bout. Gustafsson is the more technical striker and is 4th all-time in UFC light heavyweight knockdowns. If Smith wins, it will be in the first 3 rounds, but I think Gustafsson takes it.

Baseball

MLB June 1st

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92-83 on MLB last season and went up 34.31 units

9-7 on MLB this season up 9.34 units

White Sox at +102 for 3 units. Ivan Nova and Jefry Rodriquez have both been below average this season. Nova, Chicago’s starter, allowed only 1 earned run in his last start. Rodriquez allowed 6 earned runs in his last start. Indians have a losing record on the road. White Sox are on a win streak.. good play here at plus money. White Sox have the hotter bats and hotter pitcher.

Brewers at -182 for 2 units. Woodruff has allowed 2 or less earned runs in his last 6 starts for the Brew Crew. Thought Brewers would be around -215. Taking the value.

 

Soccer

Tottenham Vs. Liverpool – Champions League Final Predictions

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It’s here!! No Ronaldo or Messi, but there are still some of the best players in the World playing in this game. This is the second-ever all England Champions League final. Liverpool won both Premier League games 2-1 this season, but this game will have much more intensity. Liverpool have kept a clean sheet in 6 of their last 8 competitive victories.

Mohamed Salah of Liverpool will score 1 or more goals against Tottenham Hotspur at +140 for 3 units. Salah only played 30 minutes in last year’s final after Sergio Ramos knocked him out before halftime. Salah will want to make up for lost time here. Danny Rose is solid, but I think Salah has a better chance at scoring than these odds imply.

Sadio Mane of Liverpool will score 1 or more goals against Tottenham Hotspur at +150 for 3 units. Mane has scored first for Liverpool in 5 of the last 6 games he has scored in. If Rose can stop Salah, I’m not convinced Trippier will be able to stop Mane. At least, one of these two has to score right?

P.S. The gif above is Salah sending his former teammate De Rossi into retirement.