Author: John Anders

Tennis

Tennis October 19th – European Open

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65-33-4 on tennis up 17.00 units

Richard Gasquet at -155 for 3 units. Gasquet beat Jan-Lennard Struff in straight sets at this tournament two years ago. Gasquet has only lost to Del Potro and Nishikori this month. Struff is in fine form too, but he struggled a little bit against clay court specialist Feliciano Lopez. Gasquet has won 7 titles at indoor hardcourts in his career. Going with the player with more ability and the higher ceiling.

Giles Simon at -156 for 1 unit. Schwatzman won their only previous meeting, but Simon did not have match fitness or form going into that match. Now it is Diego Schwartzman who has less form and fitness. Simon has looked better in this tournament losing only 6 games combined to Sergiy Stakhovsky and Mackenzie McDonald. Diego needed two and a half hours to beat Cameron Norrie unconvincingly. Schwartzman is better on clay than he is in these conditions and he is only 1-3 since the US Open.

Simon/Gasquet parlay for 2 units to win 3.23 units.

Football

NCAA Football October 18th – Georgia State/Arkansas State

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22-21 on college football down 8.13 units

Arkansas State at -500 for 10 units. Max Play. Georgia State gives up almost 500 yards a game. I want to bet the line, but Arkansas State being 1-5 ATS scares me. Georgia State has not won a road game all season. Justice Hansen is Arkansas State’s Senior QB and needs just one more touchdown for the school record. He knows they have to win this game if they want to get another bowl win in his senior season. Opponents average over 7 yards a play against Georgia State and those numbers are worse on the road. Good offense vs a bad defense in this one.

Baseball

MLB October 18th – ALCS Game 5

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80-78 on MLB up 12.93 units

10-3 on MLB Playoffs up 22.48 units

Astros -1.5 at +105 for 2 units. J.D. Martinez is the only player with his full name on the back of his jersey in this series. Also, he is the only player that hits Verlander well, but it is a small sample size (only 3 ABs). I just can’t bet against Verlander. The Astros got unlucky last night. Altuve, Bregman, and Gurriel all hit David Price well. Price has a 6.16 ERA over his 11 postseason starts. Kimbrel and the Red Sox bullpen has struggled recently. Houston has to win this one or their season is over. The Astros beat the Red Sox 7-2 in Fenway last time Verlander pitched and that was against Boston Ace Chris Sale. I am not going to over-analysis this one. Verlander > Price.

Football

NFL October 18th – Broncos at Cardinals

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26-23-3 on NFL up 18.53 units

Cardinals at +110 for 3 units. Two worst run defenses in the NFL here. Cardinals are 1-5, but 3 of those loses were with Sam Bradford starting. Josh Rosen has thrown for more yards in his worst game this season than Bradford did in his best game. I don’t know what is more impressive, that Sam Bradford got a 15 million dollar contract or that Nathan Peterman keeps getting playing time.

Arizona has looked a lot better the past 3 weeks and they are 7-1-1 with David Johnson in primetime. Arizona is 2-0 ATS at home with Rosen. Mike McCoy is not a good offensive coordinator for Arizona (last in the league in yards and points), but they do have Christian Kirk, Johnson, and Larry Fitz. As bad as McCoy is, Vance Joseph might be worse. The Broncos are 1-9 on the road under Joseph. Mike Iupati is injured for Arizona, which is big because he is one of the best guards in the NFL. Denver’s injury problems are worse though. The Broncos are missing corner Adam Jones, linebacker Shane Ray, guard Ron Leary, tackle Jared Veldheer, and tackle Dymonte Thomas.

Christian Kirk over 65 receiving yards at -112 for 2 units. Bradley Roby must not know he is in a contract year because he has been getting burned for the Broncos. Kirk has gone over this number easily the past two weeks. Kirk had 7 targets last week. He averages 12.5 yards a catch. He breaks a big gain in this one.

Ricky Seals-Jones over 40 receiving yards at -115 for 3 units. If a tight end has got more than 5 targets this season against the Broncos, they have gone over 53 yards. Ricky averages a little over 5 targets on the season. He had 69 yards last week. This number is a little too low.

Tennis

Tennis October 18th – Kremlin Cup, European Open, and Stockholm Open

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62-35-4 on tennis up 12.29 units

Diego Schwartzman at -165 for 2 units. Diego has only won 10 matches on indoor hardcourts in his professional life, but 7 of them are here at Antwerp. He was the runner-up at this tournament this past two years losing to Gasquet and Tsonga. Schwartzman is not in the best form, but this location will get him right. Cameron Norrie can take advantage of Diego’s poor form here, but he does not have enough experience on hardcourts at this level. Schwartzman will use his solid return game here to get the win.

Pierre-Hughes Herbert at -115 for 2 units. This is strictly a form bet. Herbert is in better form than Seppi. Seppi does have the win in the H2H on hardcourt, but that was 6 years ago. Not going to overthink this one.

Philipp Kohlschreiber at +130 for 2 units. Fernando Verdasco is in similar form compared to Kohlschreiber, although Verdasco does have a little more fitness. I like Philipp on this surface though. The German leads the H2H 5-4 and has won the only other indoor hardcourt match. This should be a fairly even match so I will take the plus money. Philipp has the H2H advantage and the surface advantage; however, Verdasco does have more fitness as mentioned above. Should be a fun one.

Ivashka/Fognini/Isner Parlay for 2 units to win 2.9 units. Isner has never lost a set to Bradley Klahn (5-0). Isner has only lost his serve once against Klahn, but that was when he already had a two break advantage in the set. Both are strong servers, but Isner is the better returner. If there is going to be a player to lose this parlay, it’ll be Fognini. He withdrew in his last match vs Del Potro due to an ankle injury. If Fognini wants to win, he will. I love watching his lackadaisical athletic play. Ivashka beat Salvatore Caruso in straight sets on this surface already. Ivashka is the more reliable player. Caruso barely beat an out-of-form Bhambri and won’t be up to the task of winning another match here.

Basketball

NBA Regular Season Openers – October 17th

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18-16-1 on NBA in 2017 up 7.22 units

61-53-2 on NBA in 2018 up 9.28 units

1-1 on NBA this season down .09 units

I am going to separate this season from last year’s “2018” numbers as to not be misleading. I thought the 76ers would play a little better than they did last night. Their offense was pretty bad, but maybe that is a credit to Boston’s defense. Fultz only had 5 points in 25 minutes. The Celtics have now won 15 out of the past 17 regular season matchups between these two. Embiid said after the game “They always kick our ass. So this is not a rivalry.”

The Warriors took care of business and beat the Thunder. Oklahoma City was without Westbrook and Andre Roberson. Steven Adams is still a beast. The refs were awful in this game. They called a clear path foul and Schroder, when Schroder did not even touch Curry. Quinn Cook got called on a 3-point shooting foul against Raymond Felton. The fact that Felton’s NBA career has lasted this long is impressive (Roy Williams knows point guards), but he is not a 3-point threat. Cook looked at the ref like “You know I don’t even have to close him out if you are gonna call a foul like that holmes.”

Hawks +3 for 3 units. Knicks are awful without Porzingis. Kevin Knox will not start. 3rd year pro Taurean Prince is going to toss some cookies and have a great season for the Hawks. He averaged nearly 10 more points a game last season than he did his rookie year. Trae Young will play well in his first appearance at MSG. Jeremy Lin will be back where Linsanity started tonight. Vince Carter goes back to MSG tonight too, where he used to work the Knicks as a Net. Hawks are supposed to love every game this year, but I like taking the points here as New York already has some drama and is not at full strength. I don’t know where NY is going to get their points from without Kristaps (Enes Kanter I guess).

Timberwolves +2.5 for 2 units. Jimmy Butler is going to go off. That is all. Don’t believe me? Watch this “interview”. Man is on one recently.

Nuggets -1.5 for 4 units. Denver is just better than the Clippers. The Staples Center will be fairly quiet with the Dodgers playing and everything else in LA. Denver has missed the playoffs the past two season by one game. They will come out hot this season. Jokic and Jamal will step up. A healthy Paul Millsap will add a lot to a team’s defense that struggled last season. Gallinari and Gortat don’t scare me. Lou Williams could always get hot and drop a 40 bomb, but I like Denver to win this one easily.

Baseball

MLB October 17th – NLCS and ALCS

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80-76 on MLB up 16.93 units

10-1 on MLB Playoffs up 26.48 units

The slumping Bellinger ended my unbeaten playoff run as the Brewers lost in extra innings. The game lasted over 5 hours. Machado scored the winning run, but in the 10th inning he clipped Aguilar’s leg. Yelich said it was “a dirty play by a dirty player.” Machado has also made some questionable slides on double play balls this series. Manny said after the game, “Everything that happens on the field stays on the field.” I’m not sure the Brewers feel the same way.

Brewers at +174 for 2 units. Kershaw said before his start tonight “I know what their strengths and weaknesses are. They obviously know mine.” If I am a Dodgers fan, that worries me. LA only got two hits off of Wade Miley last time out. Miley has been a revelation this season and he has turned it up in the postseason. Dodgers have only scored two runs in their past two games (22 innings worth of baseball). Milwaukee’s bats also struggled last night, but LA made some defensive plays that I doubt they can make every time. These games have been too close for me not to take the value of the underdog here.

Astros at -148 for 2 units. Big Papi cheering for Jackie Bradley Jr’s grand slam last night was a thing of beauty. I can’t be the only one that would rather have David Ortiz and A-Rod calling a game over Joe Buck. Osuna gave up the grand slam, but Keuchel gave up two runs in the first and Boston never looked back. Eovaldi has been pitching well in these playoffs.

Charlie Morton has given up 2 earned runs in his last 8 innings against the Red Sox, although he did get roughed up by them back in June. Rick Porcello has given up 6 earned runs in 12 innings this season vs Houston. The line has been moving towards favoring the Astros, but I would play this to about -160. Astros have to win this game. Their bats are too good not to put up more than 2 runs in this one. Also, Houston’s fielding was phenomenal in Game 3. Alex Bregman should win a gold glove for his performance alone in that game (I know that’s not how it works). On the flip side, Boston’s defense left a little to be desired. JBJ’s grand slam covered up a lot of small issues Boston had in the last game, they won’t be so lucky this time around.

Tennis

Tennis October 17 – European Open, Kremlin Cup, and Stockholm Open

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59-34-4 on tennis up 11.19 units

Richard Gasquet at -370 for 2 units. Jiri Vesely has only won 3 hardcourt matches at this level in his entire career. Gasquet can become the French #1 if he does well here as Lucas Pouille had an early exit. Gasquet is 4-0 in this tournament, winning his only other appearance in 2014.

Hyeon Chung at -231 for 2 units. Chung finally won in straight sets last time out and looked to be in his Australian Open form that he showcased earlier this season. Denis Kudla and Chung are 5-5 in their last 10 matches. Chung is far more talented and should take care of business in this one.

Marco Cecchinato at +135 for 2 units. Adrian Mannarino came back from a set down to beat Cecchinato in their only other meeting. Cecchinato is in much better form now though. Marco had not won a hardcourt match at this level before 2018, but now has two titles this season on hardcourt (Budapest and Umag). Adrian has only won one of his last 7 matches. Mannarino is 22-27 on the season and will most likely have his first losing season on tour this year. The Frenchman (Mannarino) has not won back 2 back matches in his last 10 tournaments. This line is the way it is because of their H2H history, but Marco’s serve and return game has looked a lot better since then. Going with the #1 seed at plus money.

Chung/Gasquet Parlay for 2 units to win 1.69 units. Chung and Gasquet are the far more talented players in their respective matchups so why not parlay them?

Football

John Mara Throws Shade at Odell

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Giants owner John Mara said today about Beckham, “I wish he would create the headlines by his play on the field as opposed to what he says and what he does off the field. I think he needs to do a little more playing and a little less talking.”

Well it is hard to create headlines with play when Eli is your quarterback. Odell does need to be better. His muffed punt against the Panthers ended up causing them the game. In a ideal world, the Maras would stay out of player personnel decisions, but they are paying Odell 5 million more dollars a year than that Tom Brady guy gets paid. Seems like John Mara is dissing a guy that he agreed to pay all this money.

Lawerence Taylor said this in 1987, “For me, crazy as it seems, there is a real relationship between wild, reckless abandon off the field and being that way on the field.” Odell’s offseason video of a stripper doing cocaine in his bed was (pretty awesome) a huge red flag. LT, the best Giant of all-time, knows a thing or two about that life. OBJ needs to get his act together or he’s gonna be a problem even when he is done playing football. It seems Odell doesn’t have his priorities right and it has affected the Giants product on the field for the past two seasons. The Patriots will most likely trade a 4th round pick for Odell in the near future..

Basketball

NBA Regular Season Openers – October 16th

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18-16-1 on NBA in 2017 up 7.22 units

61-53-2 on NBA in 2018 up 9.28 units

Fading the public on both of these bets.

Thunder +13 for 2 units. The Thunder were 3-1 ATS against the Warriors last season. Andre Roberson being back, along with no Carmelo, will help the Oklahoma City defense. Dennis Schroder will step up with Westbrook out. PG13 will be who the offense goes through tonight. Warriors have lost their last two ring ceremony home openers. Warriors had 47 turnovers combined against the Thunder in their two loses last season. Golden State usually starts the season out a little sloppy. Thunder will get up for this one.

76ers +5 for 2 units. Joel Embiid will use last season’s postseason losses to Boston as motivation in this one. Philly’s ceiling can go a little bit higher if Markelle Fultz plays to his full potential. The Celtics have a lot more depth than the 76ers, but both have stacked starting lineups. These are the top two teams in the East. I think this will be a close game so I will take the points.