Author: John Anders

Football

NFL October 21st – Jets lose and Saints beat the Ravens

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26-26-3 on NFL up 10.53 units

Chargers at -280 for 2 units. Titans won’t be able to stop San Diego’s weapons on offense. I bet teams with more experience at Qb in London games and it has worked so far. Wilson against Carr most recently.

Browns +3.5 for 1 unit. The Bucs shouldn’t be favored by 4 against anybody.

Vikings at -190 for 10 units. Max Play. Mike Zimmer will have some complex schemes against Sam Darnold. The Jets have been getting touchdowns in unordinary ways lately and I think that stops today. Andrew Luck threw a pick 6 on his first possession against the Jets and New York never looked back. Minnesota will take care of the ball. New York won’t be able to stop Diggs and Thielen. Sheldon Richardson will have a good game in his return to NY.

Saints at +129 for 4 units. The Ravens haven’t beat a team as good as the Saints all year. The Ravens lead the league in fewest yards allowed, but those numbers are inflated due to playing the Bills, Broncos, Browns, and Titans. New Orleans averages a whopping 36 points a game. Baltimore won’t be ready for Michael Thomas, Ingram, Kamara, and Brees. This is the only team Drew Brees has not beat. He knows this. John Brown is a worry for the Saints, but they have limited big plays against every wideout not named Julio Jones and/or Calvin Ridley this season. The Saints are coming off a BYE as well.

Baseball

MLB NLCS Game 7

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81-79 on MLB up 13.88 units

11-4 on MLB Playoffs up 23.53 units

Brewers at +102 for 3 units. Jhoulys Chacin hasn’t allowed a run in 10 and a third in these playoffs. Jeffress, Knebel, and Hader will all be available out of the bullpen for the Brew Crew. Walker Buehler has allowed 9 runs in 12 innings this postseason. He was flawless at the end of the regular season, but he has slipped off of that form. Kershaw could pitch in this one if LA needs him. Brewers being at home helps. Every game the Brewers have lost has been close in this series. I just think they are the better team. Milwaukee’s bats woke up yesterday, that will continue.

 

Basketball

NBA October 20th

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18-16-1 on NBA in 2017 up 7.22 units

61-53-2 on NBA in 2018 up 9.28 units

4-4 on NBA this season down 2.48 units

Raptors -2 for 2 units. Kawhi and the Raptors have been playing some good basketball to start the season. They have a good bench which makes me worry less about the second night of a back 2 back being on the road. Serge Ibaka and Fren VanVleet have been aggressive to start the year. Kyle Lowry always gets up in games against John Wall.

Hornets +4 for 3 units. Kemba has been sizzling this season. Coach James Borrego has Charlotte looking a lot better than they did last season.

Suns +10 for 2 units. Devin Booker has been silky shooting this season. Ariza and Anderson add some nice veteran experience. The Suns beat the Mavs by 21. The Suns are going to be better than a lot of people think.

Rockets at -155 for 3 units. Lakers don’t have 3-point shooters and Houston does. It is that simple.

Football

College Football October 20th

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24-22 on college football down 7.03 units

Michigan -7 for 3 units. Huge rivalry game here. Michigan State has won 8 of the past 10. Michigan is far more talented this season. The Spartans are strong on the defensive front, but that is about it. The Spartans don’t have the run game they have had in past years that helps them control these types of games.

Auburn at -175 for 4 units. Ole Miss allows over 520 yards per game in the SEC. Tigers will take care of the ball and win this week, unlike last week.

LSU -6 for 5 units. Night game in Death Valley. LSU and Clemson should have to rock paper scissors for the right to call their stadium Death Valley. I would love to see a Dabo-Coach O rock paper scissor battle. Mississippi State has a great defense and QB. Both Qbs can make plays with their legs. LSU lost this game 37-7 last year. Revenge game. LSU is wearing purple helmets. LSU has a +9 turnover margin on the year, and if they make Fitzgerald throw the ball, this number will go up.

Soccer

Soccer October 20th – International Break Is Over, Back to Club Soccer

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39-29-5 on Soccer since World Cup up 18.42 units

I never bet on the international break in October, but I love betting on this first weekend back. Frankfurt won me both my bets yesterday. The 20-year-old Luka Jovic scored 5 goals and was being just plain mean to Dusselfdorf.

Tottenham at -120 for 2 units. Harry Kane.

Liverpool at -320 for 3 units. Klopp beat his former assistant David Wagner 3-0 both times last season. Liverpool has one of the top attacks in the world, but their keeper Allison has conceded the fewest goals at this point in the season since 1962 for Liverpool. Huddersfield have won one of their last 18 top flight games.

Atletico Madrid at +119 for 2 units. Villarreal struggles in the second half of their matches. They have been tied at halftime and lost in 4 of their 8 La Liga games this season. They lost their last two La Liga games to a lot worse competition than Atletico.

Dortmund at -118 for 1 unit. Dortmund has a lot of injury issues, but they were the hottest team in Europe before the break. Going to bet on that form carrying over here.

Juventus at -550 for 4 units. Ronaldo did not get to play for Portugal so he will be ready to go. He will want to play well since his personal life has left some people thinking less of him. Juve have 9 clean sheets in their last 14 games at home. Genoa don’t have the class to keep up with the unbeaten Italian leaders.

Tennis

Tennis October 20th – Semifinals of the Kremlin Cup, European Open, and Stockholm Open

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66-35-4 on tennis up 15.94 units

Fabio Fognini at +138 for 2 units. Stefanos Tsitsipas is enjoying the best season of his young life; however, so is the Italian #1. Fognini is still going for an Italian record in 4 ATP World Tour Titles in a season. That should be enough motivation for him. Fognini’s ankle is a worry, but this value is too good to pass up. Stefanos is more atheltic than most players on tour, but not Fognini. Fabio has only lost to Del Potro this month. Tsitsipas struggles against players with good serves (lost to Kevin Anderson in straight sets last tournament). Fognini’s serve will be enough here. The Italian had 7 aces in the first set before Chung retired yesterday. These are two of my favorite players. Should be a good one.

Diego Sebastian Schwartzman at +120 for 2 units. Schwartzman has made it to the finals here the past two years and will look to do it again today. Gael Monfils has not made a final since 2016. Diego beat Gael in straight sets earlier this year, but lost to him 3 years ago. Obviously I put more weight in the matchup that was this year. Monfils is the better player on this surface, but I can’t pass up on this value as Diego loves Antwerp. He has won 9 out of 12 matches here in his career.

John Isner at -204 for 1 unit. I thought this line would be around -270 so I will take the perceived value. Ernests Gulbis is tied in the H2H with Isner 3-3, but Isner has won 3 of the past 4. Gulbis struggled against Jack Sock and only had a 56 first serve percentage. That won’t get it done against Isner.

Andreas Seppi at -132 for 3 units. Both players are capable of winning this match and are fairly even. I like Seppi because he has won the past two matches between these two on this surface in straight sets. Adrian Mannarino will be happy making it this far as he lost 6 matches in a row recently. Mannarino last beat Seppi on a hardcourt a decade ago. Mannarino has a much easier path to this semifinal. Adrian has not beat a player of Seppi’s caliber in a while.

Baseball

MLB October 19th – NLCS Game 6

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80-79 on MLB up 10.93 units

10-4 on MLB Playoffs up 20.48 units

Brewers at -102 for 3 units. Hyun-Jin Ryu gave up 2 earned runs in 4 and a third last time out against Milwaukee. Wade Miley is starting his second game in a row after the Brewers hoodwinked the Dodgers in Game 5. The Brew Crew still lost however. Milwaukee’s bats have struggled, but a change of scenery may be just what they need. Milwaukee’s OBP is .48 points higher at home, their slugging his better, and their BA is .30 points higher at home this postseason. Dodgers starters have struggled this series with a 4.10 ERA. Brewers bullpen is always better after a day of rest.

Football

College Football – Air Force at UNLV

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23-21 on college football down 6.13 units

Air Force at -410 for 4 units.

Air Force -10 for 2 units. UNLV’s lack of defense will get exposed for the third straight game here. Backup QB here for UNLV. Max Gilliam has completed less than 48% of his passes for UNLV, which leads to too many 3 and outs. UNLV leads the league in rushing, but the injury their starting QB, Armani Rogers, makes that stat obsolete. The Running Rebels allow over 240 yards rushing a game and that is what Air Force does best.

Basketball

NBA October 19th – Russell Westbrook’s Season Debut

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The Lebron Lakers lost to the Blazers by 9 in Portland last night. LA’s defense obviously needs to improve, but I don’t think they are going to win 48 games this season if they don’t go get a deep threat. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Lance Stephenson are their best 3-point shooters right now. When the Cavs were at their best with Lebron, they had 3 sharpshooters spreading the floor. Lonzo, Ingram, and Kuzma are all talented, but they are not shooters. Lillard is still good, but Nik Stauskas went off for Portland shooting 5-8 from deep and finishing with 24 points. Lebron is now 0-4 in season debuts with new teams.

Miami covered the spread and sneaked out a win against the Wizards. Same old story for Washington, Beal and Wall go off, but coaching and bench play hold them back. Josh Richardson was the best player in the Heat for this one. Dwayne Wade came off the bench and missed the game winning shot, but Olynyk got the putback for the win.

The Bulls scored 58 first half points, but still lost to Philly by 19. Ben Simmons had some dimes and got his triple double. Embiid dropped 30. LaVine dropped 30. Covington played a lot better for the 76ers in this game than he did against the Celtics.

18-16-1 on NBA in 2017 up 7.22 units

61-53-2 on NBA in 2018 up 9.28 units

1-2 on NBA this season down 1.12 units

I want to bet the Hornets -2.5, but the public is betting them heavy and I am a Hornets fan so I am going to stay away. Too much emotional attachment and all that. Another game I want to place a wager on is Raptors/Celtics. All the money is on Boston +3, but the line hasn’t moved which makes me want to bet Toronto. Kawhi looked good in his first game for the Raptors and had this absurd play.

Thunder +1 for 3 units. Dennis Schroder, Paul George, and Steven Adams all looked good in the season opener, and now they get Westbrook back. Clippers don’t have the offense or defensive anchor without DeAnder Jordan. The Warriors got 17 offensive rebounds against Oklahoma City, the Thunder will make sure that doesn’t happen against the Clippers tonight.

Nets -3.5 for 3 units. Hollis-Jefferson and Allen Crabbe will play in this one. No Porzingis. Spencer Dinwiddie was frustrated with the close loss to the Pistons. I think this Brooklyn team is pretty good. The Knicks win against the Hawks doesn’t impress me. Nets win by 8 or more.

Warriors at -143 for 2 units. Jazz were the only team in the NBA to beat the Warriors 3 times last season. Golden State won’t let that happen again. That is all.

Bucks at -165 for 2 units. I like both of these teams a lot. If the Bucks can outlast Kemba and the Hornets drilling 3s all night, they can beat the Pacers. Also, Giannis Antetokounmpo.

Timberwolves/Grizzlies Parlay for 1 unit to win 0.72 units. Cavs and Hawks are not good. Grizzlies will win their home opener. Timberwolves barely lost to the Spurs. They have too much talent to let Kevin Love beat his old team here.

Soccer

Soccer October 19th – Dusseldorf at Eintracht Frankfurt

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37-29-5 on Soccer since World Cup up 15.11 units

Frankfurt at -120 for 2 units.

Frankfurt over 1.5 goals at -125 for 2 units. Frankfurt have scored 8 goals in their last two home games. They scored 13 goals in a club friendly recently. Wasn’t a competitive game, but can’t hurt confidence. Sebastien Haller has been in great form this season for Eintracht Frankfurt. Dusseldorf’s keeper, Micheal Rensing, has given up 7 goals in his past 3 games against below average competition. Frankfurt has scored in every game this season.