ATP Rome – Internazionali BNL d’Italia Preview

91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

36-41 on tennis in 2019 down 29.53 units

Nadal won this event last year. Djokovic and Nadal have won this event all but two times since 2004. It’s 2019. Nadal hasn’t won a title so far in 2019. He will want to win here before Roland Garros. Thiem and Tsitsipas are hot. Nadal and Djokovic dominate this tournament. Federer is Federer. Should be another exciting tournament like Madrid was.

Felix Auger-Aliassime at -115 for 6 units. FAA beat Coric in Miami this year. Coric is 0-2 in the main draw here in Rome. FAA is 5-1 in opening rounds on clay this year. Borna Coric is out-of-form. FAA’s ability to chase down balls and play winners will be enough here.

Gael Monfils at -288 for 6 units. Monfils has played 3 matches against Albert Ramos-Vinolas and won all 3 in straight sets. Monfils looked solid in Madrid. Both players are in decent form, but Monfils can decide the winner of this match.

ATP Rome Gets Underway – Will Roger Federer Participate?

91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

36-40 on tennis in 2019 down 24.53 units

Taylor Fritz/Martin Klizan/Reilley Opelka -1 Parlay risking 5 units to win 8.14 units. Fritz and Klizan are not going to lose. Opelka beat Gulbis 2-0 in their only other meeting on clay. Opelka is having a better clay season than he did last year, when he beat Gulbis. Gulbis has lost 9 matches in a row and 6 in a row on clay. Opelka’s serve will be enough to move on. A lot of units for a parlay in tennis, but I didn’t go up 42 units last year on tennis by being a Pus—- Michael Cera-type. I still love Superbad… Jonah Hill and Emma Stone have great chem. They would have highlighted green bars in fifa ultimate team.  Emma Stone is good-looking enough to be a co-star in a film with Ryan Gosling. Yes it was 8 years ago, but she is good-looking enough to be in Crazy, Stupid, Love as a lead with him. Gingers are hot.

ATP Madrid

91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

40-35 on tennis in 2019 down 31.45 units

Nadal -1.5 sets at -130 for 9 units. Wawrinka has played 16 sets against Nadal on clay in his career and lost them all.

ATP Madrid Continues – Great Lineup Today

91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

39-33 on tennis in 2019 down 27.40 units

Fognini/Thiem meet. Thiem won in Barcelona without losing a set this year (beat Nadal in the semis) and Fognini won Monte Carlo last week.

Chardy/Djokovic meet. The Joker has won 28 sets against Chardy and lost none. Either Chardy is playing the long game… or Novak has his number.

Federer faces the in-form Monfils. Tsitsipas goes up against home-favourite Verdasco. The best American on clay this season, Tiafoe, goes up against the best clay player ever in Nadal. Should be fun.

Monfils +4 at -132 for 3 units. Federer is going for back 2 back wins here in Madrid for the first time since 2012, when he won on the blue clay. Monfils has made the quarterfinals in all 5 ATP World Tour events he has entered this season. Federer hasn’t been in the best form this season and just returned to clay after a lengthy layoff. Monfils has a solid chance to beat Federer for the 5th time in his career today.

Laslo Djere at +122 for 3 units. Djere has been hot for a while. Cilic has experience on clay, but it is still up for debate if he has found his form this year. You take the coin flip at plus money.

Thiem at -257 for 4 units. The conditions here in Madrid are good for Thiem. Thiem will hit the ball hard (like he always does) and make Fognini run. Fabio doesn’t like to run all that much. Fognini has played a lot of tennis lately and will be confident for The French Open after winning the Masters 1000 in Monte Carlo. Thiem has a larger margin for error in this match; whereas, if Fognini is missing his first serve, Thiem is going to work him. I think Thiem takes advantage of Fognini’s second serve and backhand.

 

Estoril Open Semi and a Little Madrid Action

91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

37-33 on tennis in 2019 down 32.48 units

Short write up because I was up late watching the Blazers/Nuggets 4 overtime game..

Tsitsipas at -178 for 8 units. Goffin isn’t expected to be here, Tsitsipas is. Goffin’s return game has been on point this tournament. Goffin has won the only other meeting between these two on clay. Goffin’s inability to serve consistently will be his downfall in this match. He makes matches too hard for himself in my eyes.

Opelka at -338 for 2 units. Messi has scored 17 Champions League goals and 12 Freekicks since Mischa Zverev last won a match on clay. That stat is completely made up, but prolly true.

ATP Estoril Quarterfinals Preview – Will Frances Tiafoe Have Enough Gas in the Tank to Win Again?

91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

37-32 on tennis in 2019 down 29.48 units

Have one pending parlay that needs Tsitsipas and Monfils to win today. Tsitsipas has gone from a heavy favorite when I put the parlay in (-645) to a “why would you even put him a parlay” (-881)? The odds on Monfils have stayed the same. Gael’s opponent, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, is in great form for an 18-year-old and has a bright future; however, I think Monfils ability to hit winners will win him the match.

Frances Tiafoe at +129 for 3 units. Tiafoe was down a set and a break to Yoshihito before he clawed all the way back to win a 3rd set tiebreak. It was an amazing match to watch. It felt like both players were broken 10 times in that tiebreak. Many people are saying Frances will be gassed.. I tend to disagree. Obviously he will be more winded than he was yesterday morning but he is young. The American has played only 2 matches over the past 5 days. This is the same Tiafoe that played 16 sets at the Australian Open this year before losing to Nadal in the Quarters. He has endurance.

Pablo Cuevas, Tiafoe’s opponent, has played 4 matches over the past 5 days and has never made it to a major quarterfinal. His endurance can be questioned. Cuevas did win a challenger in Tunisia recently, but his toughest match was against Joao Domingues. Stefanos Tsitsipas is a -881 favorite over Domingues today. The American lost in the Finals here last year. He enjoys playing here. Tiafoe will win enough baseline rallies and take advantage of his 2nd return points to win another match. A Monfils/Tiafoe Semi would be fun to watch.. The Tennis gods and Lil B the based god will be good to me.

ATP Estoril and Munich Continue – Monfils, Tsitsipas, and Tiafoe

91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

36-32 on tennis in 2019 down 33.53 units

Frances Tiafoe at -148 for 6 units. Yoshihito Nishioka just won his first clay court match since April 2018. Nishioka beat the young American Mackenzie McDonald in straight sets. Frances Tiafoe is a weird American in the sense that he seems to like playing on clay courts. Tiafoe beat Mikhail Kukushkin in straight sets. Tiafoe forced 11 break points and saved 5 of his 6 break points. Tiafoe has played well this season and I expect him to keep on his upward trajectory. Nishioka has a strong serve, but Tiafoe should be able to handle it on clay. Tiafoe is confident and will hit enough winners to beat Japanese 23-year-old.

Gael Monfils/Stefanos Tsitsipas/Roberto Bautista-Agut parlay risking 3 units to win 3.24 units. Rudolf Molleker is 18 and coming off of his 3rd tour-level main draw win of his career. Bautista-Agut should be able use his experience and solid form to get the win (beat Djokovic). The Spaniard has made the QFs every time he has played in Munich. Nadal beat Bautista-Agut on clay this year, but Rudolf is not Nadal.. in case you were confused. Monfils and Tsitsipas are on a crash course to meet in the final I believe.

ATP Estoril Round of 16

91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

35-32 on tennis in 2019 down 37.93 units

Gael Monfils at -182 for 8 units. Monfils is playing in his first match after an injury absence. Monfils was sizzling before he got hurt. Opelka is a young Isner. Opelka has a great serve and impressed me against Pedro Sousa in round 1 (even though Sousa had a bum ankle supposedly). Monfils should have the advantage on this surface. I don’t think Monfils would rush back from injury with Roland Garros about a month away. Monfils is 15-3 in 2019. Gael’s ankle/achilles should be good to go and his trick shots/ability to return will be too much for Opelka. Opelka just won his first clay court tour match..

 

ATP Estoril and Munich Opening Rounds – French Open Less Than a Month Away

91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

35-32 on tennis in 2019 down 33.64 units

Taylor Fritz at -103 for 3 units. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina is only 19, but he does like the clay more than Fritz. Fritz won against Fokina in Madrid last year. The American is in better form than he was then. Nishikori and Djokovic are Fritz’s last two losses on clay. No shame in that. I liked how Fritz looked vs Schwartzman and Opelka on clay recently.

Diego Sebastian Schwartzman at -161 for 3 units. Schwartzman is usually more consistent than Paire. Schwartzman lost to in-form Dominic Thiem last week. This is Paire’s debut here. Schwartzman got a BYE here in Munich last year and lost in his opening match. Paire does have the serve and backhand, but I think Schwartzman can wear Paire down with baseline rallies.

Guido Pella/Nicholas Jarry par;ay at -185 for 3 units. Jarry will only lose if he has a hangover from doing so well in Barcelona. Jarry is a better clay player than Malek Jaziri. Pella will win.

 

 

ATP Monte Carlo Round of 16 Predictions

91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

34-30 on tennis in 2019 down 35.90 units

Nadal -6.5 at -115 for 4 units. Nadal has won 11 sets in a row on clay. He might as well be made of clay. Nadal covered this number the last time he met Grigor Dimitrov in Monaco. Dimitrov plays better against Nadal on harcourt than he does on clay (most people do). Dimitrov is 1-11 against Nadal all time. Dimitrov has a shoulder injury of sorts and Nadal found his form quickly here beating Roberto Bautista-Agut 6-1,6-1.

Medvedev at +108 for 3 units. Medvedev has won all 3 meetings against Stefanos Tsitsipas. Those were all on hardcourts, this is on clay. Medvedev called Stefanos “a small kid who doesn’t know how to fight” after their first meeting… Safe to say these two don’t like each other too much. Medvedev just dominated the in-form Radu Albot and Tsitsipas has a tendency to be broken on clay. Tsitsipas also has a tendency to be broken when playing Medvedev. Not a good combo. The Russian should be a slight favorite in my eyes, taking the value.

Alexander Zverev at -381 for 5 units. Fognini is not in-form this season. Rublev blew the match and couldn’t hit a winner after being up a set and a break on Fognini in the last round. Zverev is far superior when compared to Rublev and Fabio will have to play his best tennis of the year to win. Zverev beat FAA in straight sets in the last round.. Fognini lost to FAA in straight sets this year. Send it. I wouldn’t hate parlaying Zverev with both plays above separately… so I will.