40-14-2 on tennis up 26.64 units
Went up 14.82 units on Wimbledon, now let’s get this US Open betting started.
Kevin Anderson at -343 for 4 units. Anderson made me some money on Wimbledon so I am going to keep riding him. Ryan Harrison beat Anderson they last time they met and Anderson will want to get his revenge. Harrison is going to have to play his best tennis to win..
Juan Martin Del Potro -7 for 2 units. Donald Young is just not in the same class as Del Potro. Del Potro won his first and only grand slam here in 2009. Young has not been playing his best tennis this season and now gets one of the favorites to win the tournament. I think Del Potro will break Young enough times for this to cover.
38-13-2 on tennis up 24.24 units
Up 12.41 on Wimbledon
Kevin Anderson and Novak Djokovic meet in the final of the oldest tennis tournament in the world. Anderson impressed many with his wins over Federer and Isner. Anderson had not defeated Isner since 2012 and the South African had never defeated Federer (nothing to be ashamed of). Anderson has never won a Grand Slam tournament, he gets a solid chance here. Novak played a 5 hour match against Nadal to make the final, while Anderson played the second longest match in Wimbledon history against Isner (over 6 hours). The South African has struggled with fitness in his career and I just think he will not have enough in this one.
Novak Djokovic -1.5 sets at -250 for 4 units. I think Novak wins this match 3 sets to 1 so I am going to bet it. I think Anderson can win a tiebreak set, but Novak is the smarter player in my opinion.
Djokovic -5.5 for 4 units. Novak will win his sets by a wider margin than Anderson will win his.
Anderson Djokovic over 38.5 games for 3 units. If it goes to 4 or 5 sets this bet will win, I think it goes 4 sets so I am going to bite on the over.
36-13-2 on tennis up 20.12 units
Kevin Anderson at -252 for 5 units. Kohlschreiber just simply is not as good as Anderson. Anderson has won all 4 meetings between the two. Anderson could struggle, but Kohlschreiber fails to show up in big matches like this and I expect that to continue.
Stefanos Tsitsipas at -234 for 5 units. Tsitsipas is 1-0 against Fabbiano in his career. Tsitipas should be able to overpower and wear down his opponent in this one. Fabbiano did just beat Wawrinka 3-0, but I think that says more about Wawrinka than Fabbiano.
32-13-2 on tennis up 13.03 units
Benoit Paire at -333 for 3 units. Jason Jung is only in this tournament because Andy Murray withdrew. Benoit Paire should be able to handle Jung with ease. Paire won the only meeting between these two in contested straight sets. Paire also beat The Joker in Miami in March of this year. Paire got lucky not having to play Murray, and I expect him to take advantage here.
27-11-1 on tennis up 11.52 units
Alexander Zverev to win the tournament at +700 for 1 unit.
Dominic Thiem to win the tournament at +1250 for 1 unit.
Goffin -260 for 2 units.
Goffin -5 at -108 for 4 units.
Edmund +1.5 at -120 for 6 units. Fognini could win this match easily… but this is Fabio Fognini. I think Fognini loses some sets big even if he wins the match. He just has too much give up in him. Edmund is good enough and consistent enough to frustrate Fognini. First ever meeting between these two.
John Isner at -260 for 5 units. Isner has never lost to Herbert. Herbert is consistent no doubt, but Isner has been hot on clay lately. Isner’s serve is also too powerful for Herbert.
Schwartzman at +138 for 3 units. I just love this little guy. His ability to move around and chase balls will be valuable in this long match. Coric has a good history against Schwartzman, but Schwartzman is better than the history suggests.
24-11-1 on tennis up 7.88 units
Roland-Garros – 2018 French Open
Kevin Anderson at -154 for 3 units. Anderson has looked good since he retired in Rome about two weeks ago. Anderson got to the Round of 16 here at Roland-Garros last year. His serve will be too strong for Pablo Cuevas. Cuevas could win because he is such a strong clay player. Also, Anderson could be unfit, but there is still value in this play. Anderson won their only other clay matchup in Barcelona in 2011.
John Isner at -500 for 4 units. Isner has been hot on clay and Zeballos has been struggling. It is that simple.
20-12-1 on tennis down 0.13 units
The Internazionali BNL d’Italia (Italian Open) – Rome ATP
Nadal -6 at +103 for 2 units. Fognini can beat anyone if he is on his game and is one of the few players that has bested Nadal multiple times on clay. Fognini is 2-5 in his career vs Nadal on clay. Nadal looked great in his second set against Shapovalov and I expect that to carry over. Fognini may get frustrated here if he gets broken early and if that happens this will cover easy. Nadal has not moved past this stage here in Rome in the past 3 seasons. He knows this and he will get passed it today. Fognini can beat anyone on his day, but I expect Nadal to be dialed in.
Pablo Carreno Busta +2.5 for 1 unit at +105. Carreno Busta has lost to Cilic every time he has played him, but none of those have been on clay. The clay favors Carreno Busta slightly. This would be a larger play, but Carreno Busta played a 3 hour match yesterday. Cilic has not looked all that great since his marriage and I think Busta can sneak out a set at least in this one.
Djokovic at -165 for 5 units. Djokovic has won all his matches this week in straight sets. Djokovic has won 11 straight over Nishikori. The Joker always seems to get the points when he needs them against Nishikori. Kohlschreiber is just not as athletic as Nishikori, but Djokovic may be. If it is a forehand battle, Djokovic will win. Nishikori does not have a strong enough serve to beat Djokovic in my opinion.
Zverev at -195 for 6 units. Going to keep riding the hottest player on the tour at the moment. Zverev has now won 20 straight sets on clay. Goffin is just not on the same level even though he forced Del Potro to retire in the last round. Goffin won the last meeting between these two, but Goffin is 0-1 vs Zverev on clay.
16-10 on tennis down 3.56 units
The Internazionali BNL d’Italia (Italian Open) – Rome ATP
Thiem and Schwartzman let me down. Thiem had twice as many double faults as aces in his loss to Fognini. Thiem had landed only 55% of his first serves compared to Fognini’s 71%. Schwartzman won the first set and was up a break in the second set before blowing the second set and getting blown out in the third set to Paire. Schwartzman is now 4-5 on European clay this season, but should still be a career high top 12 seed at Roland Garros.
Fabio Fognini at -420 for 3 units. Peter Gojowczyk has never done this well on clay. Peter was on a 6 match losing streak before Rome. Fognini is the better player on clay and is at home. Fognini can beat anyone, even himself, but I like him to move on here.
Aljaz Bedene +2 for 3 units. Bedene has won the last two matches over Carreno-Busta on clay, but they were close. Bedene should be well-rested after Kevin Anderson retired against him in the last round. Bedene is playing the best tennis of his career in 2018 and I expect that to continue.
Bedene : Carreno-Busta over 22 for 4 units. Every match they have ever played has gone over this number.
Juan Martin Del Potro at -138 for 3 units. Goffin has not been in the best form lately. These two have never met on clay. David Goffin had a tough time against Marco Cecchinato in round 2. Del Potro is a lot better than Cecchinato. Del Potro is the stronger, offensive player, while Goffin is the better returner. Del Potro would do best to attack away from Goffin’s body on his serve as Goffin is crafty. Goffin lost to Edmund in Madrid and Del Potro has a similar, but better style of play to Edmund.
Shapovalov +7 for 1 unit. Nadal wants revenge on Shapovalov for when the young Canadian #1 beat him in Canada. It is tough betting against Nadal on clay, but Shapovalov is playing the best tennis of his career.
Alexander Zverev at -270 for 8 units. Riding the hot hand here. Zverev has won 18 straight sets on clay. This would be a lot more impressive if Nadal didn’t just win 50 straight sets on clay.
Kei Nishikori at -179 for 3 units. Kei should be able to get past Kohlschreiber here. Kei has never lost to Philipp. If Kei is healthy he will win this match (big if). Jack Sock did not test Kohlschreiber in the last round, but I expect Nishikori to be a lot more consistent than Sock. Nishikori is a better athlete and the better returner so I like him here.