Category: Uncategorized

28-23-1 on NBA Playoffs up 11.66 units

The Celtics limited the Cavs 3-point shooting like I knew they could (Cavs were 15.4% from 3). When Lebron can’t find the passing lanes, he gets frustrated and starts taking poor 3s. Marcus Smart had his typical 4-12 shooting, but a +16 plus/minus. Al Horford has turned back the clock and Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum are too nice for their age.

Warriors at +105 for 2 units. Warriors at plus money is almost too easy. If they lose this game, I will double down on them next game. Steph should be close to 100%. Rockets won the regular season series, but I do not think that matters too much.

Warriors – Rockets under 225 for 1 unit. Both these teams closed the season well on defense. I do not think the Rockets will be ready for KD, Draymond, and Klay on defense. Warriors have only let up more than 104 points once at home these playoffs. I expect them to lockdown Harden and make everyone else beat them.

26-23-1 on NBA Playoffs up 7.88 units

Celtics +2 for 2 units. The Celtics perimeter defense will shut down Kyle Korver and JR Smith. Lebron won’t be able to find the passing lanes he found last round. I still expect Lebron to go off, but the Celtics are the best team he has played against in these playoffs. I think the Celtics win a game in Boston, let’s hope it is this one. I expect the Celtics to come out playing harder with Scary Terry and Marcus Smart setting the tone.

Celtics – Cavs under 205.5 for 2 units. Brad Stevens and his defense will limit Lebron. This number has been rising a little so I’ll take perceived the value. I expect a physical game that the Cavs are not used to after playing the Raptors.

39-41-4 in Hockey up 5.23 units

CAPS ML at +174 for 2 units. IT IS THE CAPS YEAR. STILL WRITING IN ALL CAPS BECAUSE IT IS THE CAPS YEAR. LIGHTNING COULD NOT USE THEIR SPEED ON THE FORECHECK LAST GAME AND I DOUBT THEY WILL BE ABLE TO HERE. OVECHKIN HAS BEEN IN A GOOD GROOVE THE LAST FEW GAMES. THE FACEOFF GOAL WAS NICE. I JUST THINK THIS IS TOO MUCH VALUE TO PASS UP AGAIN. TAMPA IS GOING TO NEED MORE THAN 21 SHOTS TO WIN A GAME IN THIS SERIES.

41-41 on MLB in 2018 down 2.07 units 

Rays at -107 for 3 units. Rays bats seem to wake up yesterday. Blake Snell has not given up more than 2 earned runs in his last 6 starts for the Rays. Dylan Bundy does not scare me for the Orioles. This line is weird to me, but I am sticking to my numbers and my gut.

Braves at -138 for 3 units. The Marlins have lost every game Jose Urena has started this season. Sean Newcomb has been solid this season for the Braves. Braves have the way better bats and a better starter today.

Mariners Tigers under 8.5 for 3 units. James Paxton (fresh off a no hitter) and Blaine Hardy take the mound today. Paxton had 12 strikeouts in the game before his no hitter. He is hot. Hardy has only given up 1 earned run on the season in 3.1 innings pitched. Seattle’s bats could always pop like they did in the second game yesterday, but I do not think that will happen today.

38-41-4 in Hockey up 1.97 units

Caps at +163 for 2 units. IT IS THE CAPS YEAR SO I WILL WRITE IN ALL CAPS WHEN DISCUSSING THEIR GAMES FROM HERE ON OUT. JUST TOO MUCH VALUE TO PASS UP HERE. ALEX OVECHKIN LEADS THE LEAGUE IN GOALS FOR A PLAYER, WHILE TAMPA BAY LEADS THE LEAGUE IN GOALS FOR A TEAM. TAMPA BAY WON THE SEASON SERIES BUT THEY WON’T WIN THIS SERIES.

10-8 on tennis down 1.56 units

Kevin Anderson at -170 for 4 units. Lajovic will be a little fatigued after playing 6 matches in 7 days with the most recent being a 3 setter win over Del Potro. Lajovic was down 4-0 in the tiebreak and came back to win in the third set. Lajovic’s win over Del Potro was the best of his career. Anderson beat Munich runner-up Kohlschreiber last round and I just think he is more consistent than Del Potro or Gasquet.

Nadal Thiem over 18.5 at +120 for 2 units. Nadal finally looked mortal last match getting broken once and almost twice. Nadal is so dominate on clay that even when he wins another match 2-0, people nitpick. Thiem was actually the last person to beat Nadal on clay, but Nadal has won 5 straight sets against Thiem since then. I think we could see two 6-4 games here.

Kyle Edmund at -197 for 4 units. This will be a tough match for Edmund, but he has been playing so well here in Madrid. Shapovalov surprised me with his straight sets win over Milos Raonic. These two played a very competitive match last time out with Edmund squeaking out a win. If it was so competitive, why is Edmund such a favorite then? This is on clay surface, not hard. Also, Edmund has already won against stiffer competition this week, Edmund has won matches against Djokovic and Goffin. Should be an entertaining match, but I expect Edmund to win it.

38-39-4 in Hockey up 4.97 units

Predators -1.5 at +195 for 1 unit.

Predators ML at -150 for 2 units. Rinne and Nashville’s penalty kill looked so good last game. The Preds have already lost 2 games at home this series, they won’t lose 3. It is the first home Game 7 in Nashville’s history and I expect their crowd to give the players some extra energy. Forsberg was on point last game and the Preds will need that to continue. The Jets were not as sharp last game and now they go on the road. I like the Preds here.

39-33 on MLB in 2018 up 9.32 units

Kimbrel blew another save last night. He has two blown saves on the season and I bet the Red Sox in both those games. I don’t blame last night all on Kimbrel though, The Red Sox had a 1 run lead and runners on 2nd and 3rd with no outs in the top of the 8th. The Red Sox then went strikeout, strikeout, Betts intentional walk, then ground out. Gardner was the hero for the Yanks in the 8th, then Judge put the icing on the cake with a center field line drive homer. The Diamondbacks got up, but their bullpen blew it against the Dodgers. Diamondbacks just left too many runners stranded to get a win. Alex Wood did not pitch as well as the number suggest for the Dodgers.

Royals ML at -105 for 2 units. Chris Tillman fade. Tillman is 3-3 with a 5.37 ERA versus the Royals in his career. Tillman gave up 7 runs in 1 inning last time out vs the Angels. Ian Kennedy has pitched well for the Royals this season, but needs some more run support. I think he gets that support today.

Yankees ML at -140 for 2 units. Yankees are hot and have the better starter on the mound. Not going to overthink this one.

Braves ML at -109 for 2 units. Similar starting pitchers here, but the Braves have the better bullpen and the better bats. 21 year old Ozzie Albies leads the NL in runs scored and doubles in his rookie season. Caleb Smith has been pitching lights out for the Marlins, but I still like Foltynewicz and the Braves.

 

26-23-1 on NBA Playoffs up 7.88 units

No games today but wanted to talk about the Celtics series win over the 76ers. Marcus Smart had the most Marcus Smart string of events ever. Smart made a free throw he was trying to miss then intercepted the inbound pass with ball tracking skills that would make Revis Island proud. Smart or Rozier is a decision Ainge and the Celtics may have to make soon. Brad Stevens made the necessary adjustments after the Game 4 loss and is getting a ton of credit for his outstanding coaching this season. You can see Brad’s highlights of Game 5 here. Isaiah Thomas said “No way in hell Brad Stevens doesn’t win coach of the year. No disrespect to the other head coaches but he’s by far the best coach in the NBA.” Jayson Tatum and Donavon Mitchell are the first rookies to score 20+ points in 7 straight playoff games since Dr. J in 1972. They are pretty damn good.

Simmons and Embiid have a “bright future” in Joel’s words. Joel mentioned that KD and Russ did not even win 30 games in their first year with the Thunder. The 76ers went 52-30 this regular season. The Celtics were aggravated that Joel did not “man up” and accept his defeat right after the game, but that’s gonna happen when you are a trash talker. Hate him or love him, Joel is great for basketball.

11-10-3 on golf in 2018 up 11.62 units

Bias Warning: Plays here are influenced by Quail Hollow last week as it was the first tournament I watched since the Masters.

Henrik Stenson over Justin Rose at -110 for 3 units. The Swedish Stenson has been playing some excellent golf lately. Stenson has 3 straight top 10 finishes. Stenson has better odds to win the tournament. Driving accuracy is paramount at TPC Sawgrass and that may be Stenson’s greatest strength. The Swede is a past champ and this course plays to no style in particular, so I will take the player with better ball striking and that is in better form. In basketball, you gotta shoot well to win games. In golf, you gotta strike the ball well to win tournaments.

Jason Day over Justin Thomas at -110 for 2 units. Day has some course success here and won Wells Fargo without his best stuff. I expect him to keep it up.

Jason Day over Jordan Spieth at -105 for 2 units. Day has been at the tournament since early Monday morning working on all aspects of his game. I just expect him to keep rolling all the way to the U.S. Open. Also, Day won this tournament in 2016.

Ian Poulter over Tony Finau at +120 for 2 units. If you followed me back in March, you know I love betting Poulter. The Dell match play tournament was where I made a lot of money betting on Poulter (and against Finau). Both these guys are 55/1 to win this tournament, so I will take the hotter player at plus money. Finau has missed this cut twice as well.