10-8 on tennis down 1.56 units
Kevin Anderson at -170 for 4 units. Lajovic will be a little fatigued after playing 6 matches in 7 days with the most recent being a 3 setter win over Del Potro. Lajovic was down 4-0 in the tiebreak and came back to win in the third set. Lajovic’s win over Del Potro was the best of his career. Anderson beat Munich runner-up Kohlschreiber last round and I just think he is more consistent than Del Potro or Gasquet.
Nadal Thiem over 18.5 at +120 for 2 units. Nadal finally looked mortal last match getting broken once and almost twice. Nadal is so dominate on clay that even when he wins another match 2-0, people nitpick. Thiem was actually the last person to beat Nadal on clay, but Nadal has won 5 straight sets against Thiem since then. I think we could see two 6-4 games here.
Kyle Edmund at -197 for 4 units. This will be a tough match for Edmund, but he has been playing so well here in Madrid. Shapovalov surprised me with his straight sets win over Milos Raonic. These two played a very competitive match last time out with Edmund squeaking out a win. If it was so competitive, why is Edmund such a favorite then? This is on clay surface, not hard. Also, Edmund has already won against stiffer competition this week, Edmund has won matches against Djokovic and Goffin. Should be an entertaining match, but I expect Edmund to win it.