ATP Rotterdam Quarterfinals

91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

25-20 on tennis in 2019 down 16.04 units

Daniil Medvedev at -170 for 10 units. Biggest unit play on tennis in a while. Medvedev and Tsonga have already met once this year and Medvedev won in straight sets. The Russian #1 Daniil Medvedev has won six matches in a row. Tsonga has won seven matches in a row. Honest. This will be a fun match to watch. How do I say it best? The Russian is going to win. I love Tsonga’s form and I think he will make a lot of noise this year, but Medvedev is not a good matchup for him at this point in time.

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UEFA Europa League Round of 32 – Leg 1 of 2 Predictions and Champions League Recap

92-78-9 on Soccer in 2018 up 8.17 units

15-14-5 on Soccer in 2019 down 4.78 units

Huge Card today. Not sitting on the bench with this many exciting games happening. My largest win of the season came yesterday on Real Madrid (12 units). The first ever VAR decision went Real Madrid’s way. Typical in the tournament they have won 4 of the past 5 years. It was prolly the right call, but when not a single Real Madrid player appeals for it… seems like VAR is doing too much. Courtois made a great save right before this error so I wouldn’t go crucifying him. Benzema’s goal was a thing of clinical class. The hate boner against Real is large, but can’t deny they know how to win tournament games. They do it over and over and over..

Sergio Ramos got a late yellow card on purpose so he will be out the next game, but not the next round. 4-D Chess by one of the best defenders in the World (assuming they can beat Ajax at home). Ramos did snitch on himself, so he may receive a 2 game ban for trying to “cheat” the system. Time will tell. Ajax deserved more than a 2-1 loss, but they lacked the precision in the final third. If they can keep the majority of these young players and find a solid striker, this Ajax team could make a Champions League Quarterfinal soon.

I wanted to bet on Dortmund because Kane and Alli were out, but they gave up 3 goals off of crosses in the final 20 minutes against Hoffenheim at home over the weekend. They gave up 3 more goals off of crosses against Tottenham at home. That’s 6 goals off of crosses conceded in their past two games for the mathematically challenged. Son’s goal. Vertonghen’s goal. Llorente’s goal. C’mon Dortmund, I want to cheer for you because you have a great American, but that is tough to watch over and over. Congrats to Tottenham. If Kane gets healthy and hot, they could actually make a serious run in this tournament.

Onto today’s card:

Eintracht Frankfurt/Shakhtar Donetsk over 2 at -241 for 7 units.
Frankfurt +0.5 at -151 for 4 units. If you know me know this ain’t my feng shui
Certified everywhere, ain’t gotta print my resume….. Nah but really if you’ve been reading me you know I love Luka Jovic. He is a scoring machine for Frankfurt. Jovic has 5 goals in his 6 Europa League games this season. Shakhtar’s last 6 competitive European games have all seen 2 or more goals (1-1 Lyon draw was the only one with only 2 goals). Man City scored 6 on them. Shakhtar may be disappointed to drop out of the Champions League, but Frankfurt is a terrible matchup for them IMO. Shakhtar struggles against offensive-minded teams like Frankfurt. Frankfurt won all 6 of their Europa League group stage games. Frankfurt’s current coach Adi Hütter, and Paulo Fonseca of Shakhtar have met before in a two-legged affair that ended 6-4 on aggregate. There will be goals. Also, Frankfurt’s only loss this calendar year was to Bayern (not counting the club friendly match against Flamengo).
Bayern Leverkusen +0 at -203 for 5 units. Krasnodar has conceded in their last 5 Europa League home games. Leverkusen have scored 12 goals in their past 4 games. Bellarabi, Brandt, Havertz, and Volland are all in-form for Leverkusen. Krasnodar has not lost at home since October, but this is the best team they will have faced since then besides Sevilla. Should be a solid-watch, but I am siding with the team with more attacking options.
Valencia +0 at -183 for 3 units. You know how Jay Rock (not the Trailer Park Boys version) has that Win Win Win Win song? Well Valencia hasn’t heard it because all they do is tie. Valencia are the more talented side and should be favored by more IMO. Want to bet their ML because I do think they win, but you have to hedge on the draw a little with this defensive-minded Valencia team.
Sevilla +0.5 at -163 for 2 units.
Sevilla/Lazio over 2 at -186 for 3 units. This Sevilla team doesn’t play a 3-5-2 to sit back. They will go for an away goal or two in this one, which could leave them open at the back. Either way, there will be at least two goals in this one. Ciro Immobile has 10 goals at home this season. Ben Yedder has 19 goals in all comps this season. Sevilla looked terrible against Eibar in the first half over the weekend and then went down a man in the second half already down 2-0. That riled Sevilla up though, and they went on to tie 2-2. If they play with the same intensity they played with after that red card, they will win and this will go over. Sevilla’s struggles on the road keep me from betting their ML, but I do like them to win or draw.
Real Betis +0.5 at -211 for 3 units. The Green team from Sevilla go up against Rennes in their Europa League matchup. Betis only gave up 2 goals in their group stage matches. Lowest in the Europa. Betis hasn’t won an away match in about two months, but they have more talent than Rennes. Lo Celso has 3 goals in his last 4 in this tournament for Betis. Joaquin can use his experience to find the pass or goal that wins this bet.
FC Internazionale at -141 for 2 units. Rapid Vienna and Inter meet for the first time today. Icardi is not in the squad and is no longer the captain. Nainggolan, Perisic, Martinez, and Politano can all score goals though. Samir Handanovic is the new captain. Inter should be able to boss the midfield and come away with the win.

ATP Rotterdam Round 1 Predictions Continued

91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

25-20 on tennis in 2019 down 9.04 units

Medvedev/Tsitsipas/Tsonga Parlay risking 7 units to win 5.24 units. Medvedev won Sophia last week, while only dropping one set in the tournament. Chardy was in-form when he lost to the Russian in straight sets at ATP London in 2018. Now it is Medvedev who is in-form. Medvedev has eaten players with big serves, like Chardy, alive of late. Daniil Medvedev struggles against players that can out-rally and out-return him.. Chardy is not that player.

Stefanos Tsitsipas goes up against Damir Dzumhur. Dzumhur has no form at the moment, but he does lead the H2H 2-1. Damir hasn’t won a match this season. Stefanos has won against Roger Federer this season. Tsitsipas lost to the in-form Monfils in a close straight set match last week. The Greek has struggled to convert break points against Dzumhur in the past, but today is the best chance he will get to capitalize on some break points against Dzumhur.

Tsonga plays Thomas Fabbiano in the first round. Tsonga won this tournament in 2017. Also, Tsonga won in Montpellier last week. That is a great result considering Montpellier is where the Frenchman got hurt last season. As long as Tsonga is not too tired from playing 5 matches last week, he will win this one with the kind of form he is in.

Champions League – Real Madrid at Ajax and Tottenham at Dortmund

92-78-9 on Soccer in 2018 up 8.17 units

14-14-5 on Soccer in 2019 down 16.78 units

Real Madrid at -103 for 12 units. Ajax has lost two of their last 3 games in the Eredivisie. Real Madrid, on the other hand, have won 6 of 7 in all comps. The one they didn’t win was a draw against Barcelona at the Camp Nou. Real Madrid have won this tournament 4 of the past 5 years and have made 16 straight round of 16s. This is Ajax’s first round of 16 appearance in 13 years.

Gareth Bale now has 100 goals for Real, but his backup, Vinicius Junior, might be the better attacking option nowadays. Madrid should win the midfield-battle with Kroos, Modric, and Casemiro. Reguilon should start over Marcelo. Honestly, I was going to take the over as I see Real winning 3-1 or 2-1; however, the moneyline is better value. Real Madrid have the experience, the history, the Ballon d’Or winner, and are in-form.

Dortmund/Tottenham No Kane, Davies, Alli, or Danny Rose for Tottenham. Dortmund are winless in their last 3 games. Dortmund was up 3-0 on Hoffenheim late in the game, then they gave up 3 goals off of crosses. Tottenham can score off of crosses and set pieces with Eriksen and Llorente. One team is out-of-form and one team is missing key players. I want to bet the over, but I could see Mauricio Pochettino and Tottenham slowing the game down. Tottenham could get 1-0 type victory and attack more in the second leg once Kane and Alli are back. I could also see Dortmund scoring first and then trying to add to it and take advantage of Tottenham’s injuries. No Play.

Image: Reuters 

College Basketball Tuesday – Blue Bloods and Steph Curry’s School

70-62-2 on NCAAB last season and went up 8.95 units

19-17-1 this season up 15.08 units

Let me start of by saying I hate Kyle Guy. I don’t like that his last name is Guy. I don’t like that he always balls out against my schools (VCU and UNC). I don’t like the way he yells; however, I do like that he won me money last night. Coby White is so fun to watch as a Tar Heel fan, but UVA’s defense coupled with Little and Johnson getting ankle injuries was too much to overcome. UNC’s main problem in the game was a lack of inside presence and perimeter defense. Roy has time to fix this.

Duke/Kentucky/Davidson Parlay risking 5 units to win 5.11 units. Can Rick Pitino take any credit for how well this Louisville team is playing? Dick Vitale seems to think Rick should get another coaching job…. Dick Vitale may want to die screaming on a different hill. Louisville does have some good wins this season, like against UNC, but Duke is a tough matchup for them. Jordan Nwora is great for the Cardinals, but Duke excels at taking away your best player.

Lost in all the Zion talk, is how good of a job Coach K has done in handling this team. Duke out-coaches and out-athletes Louisville tonight. Duke holds opponents to under 30% shooting from the field. Louisville holds opponents to a lot higher number of 41.3% shooting from the field. That stat embodies the difference between these two teams.

Tremont Waters has been going off for LSU and Will Wade this season. Calipari recruited Waters, but he chose Georgetown and then switched to LSU. The Tigers have been an offensive machine in the last few weeks; however, Kentucky has the defense to slow them down enough for the win. PJ Washington has been dominate for Kentucky of late and I expect that to continue tonight. I hate that I think Duke and Kentucky are the two best teams in basketball. One of them will win the Championship for sure. (Jinx has been activated).

Davidson is tied with VCU atop the A-10, but they are only 4-4 on the road this season. Fordham is last in the A-10. Donald Trump’s first university attended, Fordham, has one win in conference play, and that was against fellow bottom-dweller UMass. Jon Axel Gudmundsson put Davidson on his back in their close win against Umass. Davidson comes ready to play in this one and gets the win.

 

ATP Rotterdam Round 1 Predictions

91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

24-20 on tennis in 2019 down 10.21 units

Denis Shapovalov ML/Milos Raonic -3 Parlay risking 7 units to win 6.41 units. Franco Skugor does have a strong serve, but the Croatian should not be too much of a challenge for Shapovalov. The Canadian has some points to defend at Delray soon, so getting some wins in his debut at Rotterdam would be good for the confidence.

Milos Raonic goes up against an out-of-form Philipp Kohlschreiber. This is Raonic’s first match since losing in the quarterfinal of the Australian Open. Raonic made the semifinal here in his only other appearance in 2015. Raonic did not drop a set to Kohlschreiber in their only other harcourt meeting at the 2015 Australian Open. Fognini is the only top-ranked opponent the German has beat this year. We all know how up and down Fognini can be. Kohlschreiber’s first serve percentage has been far too low for my liking this season. That will hurt him today against a player of Raonic’s caliber.

Champions League – PSG at Manchester United and Porto at Roma

92-78-9 on Soccer in 2018 up 8.17 units

13-13-5 on Soccer in 2019 down 10.08 units

Well since I last wrote about soccer, Manchester City beat Chelsea 6-0, Real Madrid beat Atletico 3-1, Sevilla came back from a red card 2-0 deficit to tie Eibar, Barcelona tied Bilbao 0-0, Tottenham beat Leicester 3-1, and Dortmund blew a 3-0 lead to tie Hoffenheim 3-3. The Dortmund loss is the most shocking. I would be up about 5 units if they won that game; however, Reus and Delaney’s absences were felt. Once the game started to slip away, Reus could have been used to add some leadership and steady the game. Reus and Kane will be out for Tottenham/Dortmund tomorrow.

Manchester United +0 at -161 for 10 units. No Cavani or Neymar for PSG. Manchester United haven’t lost at home under caretaker boss Ole Gunnar Solskjær. Pogba should be able to dominate the midfield. Kylian Mbappe is amazing, but the twenty-year-old-World-Cup-winner may have too much of a burden in this one without Cavani or Neymar. Rashford rested over the weekend, so he should come out firing. Di Maria going up against his old club here. Draxler, Di Maria, and Mbappe are not a bad front 3, but Neymar and Cavani are World Class. Manchester United has the fitter, more in-form team, and they are at home. Not going to overthink this one.

Roma at +110 for 3 units. Dzeko will step up in this big game. Porto dominated their weak group, but playing at Roma will be the toughest opponent they have played in a while. Roma only lost one game at home in the group stage and that was to Real Madrid. El Shaarawy and Dzeko both scored in Roma’s 3-0 win against Chievo over the weekend. They tuned up well for this match and I expect them to get the win in Rome.

 

 

 

 

College Basketball – Virginia at North Carolina

70-62-2 on NCAAB last season and went up 8.95 units

18-17-1 this season up 11.38 units

Virginia -1 at -108 for 4 units. North Carolina is on a solid win streak, but they have not played the best ACC schools during that streak. Miami, VT, and NC State have been stumbling of late. Coby White is going to have play a great game if UNC wants to win. That is a tall task for a freshman against UVA’s great defense.

UVA has to slow the game down and not turn the ball over. Sounds easy, but it is hard vs the Tar Heels. De’Andre Hunter is a tough guard for any team that doesn’t have Zion Williamson. Hunter will have a solid game. Virginia’s 3-point defense will be a key also. If UVA wasn’t coming off a tough loss to Duke 48 hours ago they would be more heavily favored. The step up in competition, coupled with UVA’s ability to slow the game down effectively, make life difficult for UNC tonight.

UFC 234: Whittaker vs. Gastelum Preview – Lando Vannata Gets Back to Winning

6-1 on UFC/MMA in 2018 up 9.90 units

6-1 in 2019 up 8.52 units

Lot of plays on heavy favorites tonight. I usually like betting underdogs with value in the UFC, but this seems like an “easy” card to read for the favorites. Not going to overthink it.

Montana De La Rosa at -243 for 3 units. The Fort Worth native, Montana De La Rosa, has won her last 3 fights all by submissions. Her opponent, Nadia “187” Kassem has only 1 UFC win in her career and it was an unanimous decision against the struggling Alex Chambers. Not saying Alex Chambers is struggling to take away from Kassem, just a fact. De La Rosa’s superior experience, ground game, and grappling get her the win.

Lando Vannata at -346 for 10 units. First of all his name is Lando. That’s a plus from the start, shoutout Donald Glover. Vannata is a purple belt in Jiu Jitsu and is trained by Greg Jackson. Jackson has trained Bones Jones, BJ Penn, Holly Holm, and many others. He’s legit. Lando’s last 4 fights have all gone the distance and he drew two and lost two of those 4 fights. He’s hungry for a win. Marcos Mariano is making his lightweight debut tonight, partly because he is Anderson Silva’s friend. ”Groovy” Vannatta is an exciting fighter and I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets performance of the night.

Vannata/Rosa under 1.5 rounds for 2 units. If Vannata wins (I think he will), it will most likely be by a TKO or submission. I expect the more experienced Vannata to take advantage of his opponent’s weaknesses early.

Robert Whittaker at -229 for 4 units. Whittaker is a Black belt in Hapkido,
a black belt in Goju-ryu Karate, and a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. Hapkido is a badass form of self defense that involves locking people’s joints. The guy is a damn savage. His nickname is “the Reaper” for Christ’s sake. Whittaker hasn’t lost a fight since February of 2014. Kelvin Gastelum does have the small Jiu-Jitsu advantage, but that is where it ends for me. Kelvin doesn’t have the length, experience, or takedown defense to keep up with Whittaker IMO. Gastelum won the Ultimate Fighter 17, but he doesn’t have much of a chance tonight.

 

21 of the Top 25 Teams Play on this Massive College Saturday

70-62-2 on NCAAB last season and went up 8.95 units

14-16-1 this season up 0.04 units

Let me start of by saying the Harvard/Columbia triple overtime game last night was awesome. Columbia made a 3 as time expired to send it to overtime. Then Bryce Aiken did a Marcus Paige impression and drilled a double pump 3 to go the second overtime. Aiken finished with a career-high 44 points and a bloody knee. The Ivy league does the “cool” back 2 back thing so both teams play again today. Wild.

Clemson -2 for 5 units. VT is down to a 6 man team. They are running on fumes. Clemson blows them out in the second half. Sorry Hokies.

St. Bonaventure +2.5 for 1 unit. VCU struggles on the road. De’Riante Jenkins seemed to turn it up another level for VCU in the second half of their game vs GW on Wednesday. Jenkins is the best recruit VCU ever signed, so it is nice to see him start stepping up. This game can go either way, take the points.

Villanova +2 for 2 units. Markus Howard for Marquette and Phil Booth for Nova are the two leading candidates for the 2020 election. Nah just playing. It’s Big East player of the year, but I wouldn’t be surprised at this rate if anybody runs for President. Marquette lost by 1 to St. Johns last time out. Howard played poorly in that one. Villanova know how to win close games and are the hotter team.

Gonzaga -17 for 3 units. I’m 3-1 on Gonzaga bets this year. St. Mary’s doesn’t have the athleticism they have had in past years. Gonzaga’s depth of talent will show up in the second half as they pull away for the 21 point win.

Florida State -2 for 3 units. Mfiondu Kabengele, Terance Mann, and Phil Cofer will do enough at home to beat Louisville. FSU has won 4 in a row in the ACC, that continues today.