NBA Finals Game 4 – Klay Thompson is Back, Looney Might Be, Kevin Durant is Out

5-4 on the NBA playoffs down 0.51 units

Kevin Durant is still out, but Klay Thompson is back for the Warriors. Golden State missed Looney and Klay’s defense in Game 3.

Klay Thompson of the Golden State Warriors will score over 18.5 points at -112 for 5 units. Klay is going to have to score 20 if Golden State wants to win. Steph’s playoff  career-high 47 points still had the Warriors losing by double digits. He needs help and Klay should supply it.

Danny Green of the Toronto Raptors will score over 9 points at -102 for 5 units. Danny has gone over this number 66.7% of the time in this series. Siakam, Leonard, and Gasol seem to be drawing the defense in the paint, which leads shooters like Green open. He runs like a dinosaur, but he shoots like John Wick.

Toronto Raptors +4½ at -110 for 5 units. Cousins, McKinnie, and Bell all got exposed on defense. Looney is great at guarding screens, unlike Cousins. Looney’s absence is noticed and he is questionable for Game 4. DeMarcus did not produce on offense to make up for his average defense in Game 3. Kawhi is in the zone.. if is on the court persona doesn’t prove this.. here is him not dapping Powell up and seemingly telling him the court is that way. Board man gets paid. The Frank Ocean’s Novacane lyrics come to mind when I think of Kawhi. “Zero emotion, muted emotion. Pitch corrected, computed emotion”.

Toronto is shooting well. Nick Nurse is coaching superbly. Kawhi is Kawhi. Pascal “I gave up being a preacher to dunk on fools” Siakam has been amazing. Danny Green and the former Shocker, Fred VanFleet, have been great as well. This Fred guy needs to have more kids. I think Game 4 will close like Game 2.. so I will take the points and the team that has been playing, well, more like a team.


French Open Semi-Finals – Federer Vs. Nadal Prediction

91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

38-44 on tennis in 2019 down 34.34 units

Two players are still alive in the semis to complete the double career grand slam in the same tournament for the first time ever.. but neither are the favorite. Djokovic and Federer may be the best tennis players ever… but Nadal is the GOAT at Roland-Garros.

Rafa Nadal +4.5 aces at -110 for 10 units. Wawrinka had 3 more aces than Federer in the last round. Federer has only covered this number in 1 of his 5 matches so far this year at Roland-Garros. Now he plays the king of these Parisian courts. Nadal has had more aces in each of his matchups here this year. Federer’s first serve was at 62% against Wawrinka. Nadal’s was at 72% against Nishikori. I think Federer and Nadal have a similar amount of aces in this match. I’ll gladly take the +4.5 for a high % of my bankroll.

Rafa Nadal -2.5 sets at -101 for 6 units. Nadal is going to eat Federer’s backhand alive. The cold wet courts should help Nadal even more. Federer has held in 31 straight service games against Nadal, but none of those were on clay. Nadal leads the all-time H2H 13-2 on clay. Federer is 15-23 against Nadal and 112-13 against all other left-handed players. The stats go on and on for these two greats, but most are in Nadal’s favor here in Paris.

MLB June 7th

92-83 on MLB last season and went up 34.31 units

16-12 on MLB this season up 2.81 units

Cardinals at +112 for 2 units. Bet on the Cards the last time Miles Mikolas pitched. That game was against the Cubs. This game is against the Cubs. Mikolas allowed 1 earned run in that game. Mikolas has had a quality start in 6 of his last 7 starts. Cole Hamels gets the start opposite of Mikolas again. Hamels looked solid against St. Louis last time… This should be another close game.. +112 is decent value.

Tigers at +125 for 2 units. Hate betting against the Twins, but Matthew Boyd. Boyd is only 5-4, but he has 97 strikeouts in 77.2 innings pitched this season. The Twins have to come back to Earth sometime right?

MLB June 6th

92-83 on MLB last season and went up 34.31 units

13-11 on MLB this season up 2.36 units

The big news is that the Cubs signed Kimbrel to a 3-year deal. Chicago needed a strong closer if they wanted to make another World Series run. They couldn’t have signed him in the Winter without giving up draft picks, but now there is no “penalty” for signing Kimbrel. 54 Million doll hairs gets them one of the best closers in baseball. Kimbrel had more than a couple shaky innings in Boston’s World Series run.. but at the end of the day he got the job done. The Cubs make the first big move of the season.

Rays -1.5 at -123 for 2 units. Gonna keep riding the hot team. I was unable to write yesterday, but the Rays were my only bet and they won.

Red Sox at -141 for 2 units. Boston has scored 8 runs in each of their last 3 games. The Royals have lost 5 in a row.

Braves at -120 for 7 units. Atlanta hits right-handers better than Pittsburgh. Both starters today are righties. I have been fading Chris Archer all year. Mike Foltynewicz has not been the best pitcher for the Braves this season, but St. Louis did not earn a run off of him in his last road start. Mike has at least 7 strikeouts in his last two starts. Chris Archer has given up at least 3 earned runs in each of his last 6 starts. Braves will be able to get on base against Archer, here’s to hoping they get the timely hits when needed.

Rangers/Brewers Parlay risking 2 units to win 3.4 units. Marlins and Orioles suck. That is all.

MLB June 4th – Lot of Lopsided Matchups

92-83 on MLB last season and went up 34.31 units

11-9 on MLB this season up 7.76 units

Twins at +121 for 3 units. Twins just won 3 of 4 against a solid Rays team, now they play the struggling I-words. The Twins have played one less game than Cleveland, but have 48 more homers. Devin Smeltzer looked good in his first career start against Milwaukee last week, allowing 0 runs in 6 innings. Smeltzer starts tonight for Minnesota. Minnesota has the best record on the road in the league at 21-9. Good value here. Shane Bieber allowed 3 homers in his last start for Cleveland.

Giants +1.5 at -167 for 2 units. Bumgarner Vs. Syndergaard. These two star pitchers have eerily similar stats this season when it comes to WHIP, hits, strikeouts, inning pitched, home runs given up, 3-pointers made, and wins. The Giants have won 3 of their last 4, while the Mets have lost 4 of their last 5. San Francisco’s bats seemed to have woken up against Baltimore.. here’s to hoping that continues.

Dodgers 1.5 at -135 for 4 units. LA’s bats are still hot and now they get their best starter this season on the mound, Hyun-Jin Ryu, against their rival Diamondbacks. Ryu was named National League Pitcher of the Month in May. Taylor Clarke only pitched two innings for Arizona in his last start. Bellinger and Muncy will be back in the lineup tonight. Clarke may struggle again tonight..

Rays -1.5 at -167 for 6 units. Detroit’s lineup is a career 1-11 against Blake Snell. Snell has had 3 straight quality starts. The Rays scored 7 runs in the last 3 innings they played.. in a loss to the red-hot Twins. Mercer, Cabrera, and Harrison are still out for Detroit. Rays are heavily favored for a reason, they get back on the winning track tonight. Tampa has the better starter, bullpen, bats, and defense..

MLB June 3rd – Dodgers at Diamondbacks and Phillies at Padres Predictions

92-83 on MLB last season and went up 34.31 units

10-8 on MLB this season up 7.44 units

Philadelphia Phillies -1½ at +113 for 4 units. The Phillies have won 5 of their last 6 games by 2 runs or more when Aaron Nola starts. Nola is starting tonight. This is the first time Bryce Harper and Manny Machado will face each other.. the two most expensive free agents of 2018-19 off-season. I am just glad neither went to the Yankees. Both teams have better records at this point in the season than they did last year, partly because of their free agent signings. MLB attendance is down about 1.5% this season compared to last year, but Philly and San Diego’s (which of course in German means whale’s vagina) attendance numbers are up. Nola is 1-0 at Petco Park with a 2.25 ERA in two starts. Aaron Nola and the Philly’s ability to get on base get them the win in Game 1 of the Free Agent World Series.

Los Angeles Dodgers -1½ at +108 for 4 units. The Dodgers are on their longest winning streak of the season at 5 games. They lost 6 games in a row earlier in the year, but they hot now. Justin Turner should be back in the lineup for LA. Robbie Ray is starting for the Diamondbacks. Ketel Marte has 5 homers in his last 9 games for the LA. Freese has homered in his last two games. Bellinger is on a 10 game hit streak… Comparable starting pitchers, but the Dodgers have the hotter bats..

French Open – Djokovic, Del Potro, and Zverev

91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

36-43 on tennis in 2019 down 41.53 units

Alexander Zverev +1 at -108 for 8 units. Fabio Fognini is the better clay-court player, but Zverev is ranked higher. Their H2H is tied at 1-1 on clay courts, with Fognini winning the most recent meeting in Monaco earlier this year. The German was in a funk when that loss to Fognini happened, now he is in better form. Zverev has won 7 matches in a row, but most would agree he still isn’t at the top of his game. Fognini has lost to his past two opponents of Alexander’s caliber (Thiem and Tsitsipas). Roberto Bautista-Agut was able to break Fognini fairly easily in the last round, but the Italian’s talent was enough to overcome those break deficits.. Fognini is not as talented as Zverev.. at least not consistently. I could see Zverev getting up 3-0 in a set and Fognini throwing the set away, which would obviously help this cover. Zverev’s two-handed backhand and ability to move Fognini around the court will get him the cover.

Novak Djokovic -8.5 at -108 for 3 units. Struff struggles against strong returners and Djokovic is the best returner in the game.

Juan Martin Del Potro at -194 for 3 units. Del Potro is back. This line should be closer to -250 in my opinion.

UFC Fight Night 153 Prediction – Alexander “The Mauler” Gustafsson Vs. Anthony Smith

6-1 on UFC/MMA in 2018 up 9.90 units

16-9-1 in 2019 up 9.93 units

Gustafsson at -290 for 2 units.

Gustafsson/Smith under 3.5 rounds at -120 for 4 units. Smith is on a short turnaround. He has the power to knock Gustafsson out early, but I think The Mauler’s chin holds up and he gets the win in the second round. Smith went the distance against Jon Jones a few months ago. Gustafsson lost in the 3rd round to Jones in his most recent bout. Gustafsson is the more technical striker and is 4th all-time in UFC light heavyweight knockdowns. If Smith wins, it will be in the first 3 rounds, but I think Gustafsson takes it.

MLB June 1st

92-83 on MLB last season and went up 34.31 units

9-7 on MLB this season up 9.34 units

White Sox at +102 for 3 units. Ivan Nova and Jefry Rodriquez have both been below average this season. Nova, Chicago’s starter, allowed only 1 earned run in his last start. Rodriquez allowed 6 earned runs in his last start. Indians have a losing record on the road. White Sox are on a win streak.. good play here at plus money. White Sox have the hotter bats and hotter pitcher.

Brewers at -182 for 2 units. Woodruff has allowed 2 or less earned runs in his last 6 starts for the Brew Crew. Thought Brewers would be around -215. Taking the value.