Christmas Hangover – Independence Bowl and Quick Lane Bowl Predictions

71-52 on College Football in 2018 up 53.33 units

35-31-2 on College Football in 2019 up 24.21 units

Pittsburgh at -390 for 5 units. I liked Pittsburgh at -10 and still like them at -11, but I have this Moneyline to finish off the parlay posted on my podcast. I am playing it for a little more than the parlay as well. Pittsburgh d-line will eat. Pitt is 0-4 in bowls under Narduzzi. Eastern Michigan has never won a bowl game. Something has to give here. Eastern Michigan’s offense is their strength, but the Panthers have one of the best pass rushes in the country along with stud corner Dane Jackson. The AD for Pittsburgh, Heather Lyke, came from the same job at Eastern Michigan weirdly enough. EMU will be able to score a little, but not enough to get the win.

Miami/LA Tech over 50 at -110 for 1 unit. Miami has given up 27 points or more in their last 3. FIU scored 41 in their last 1. I like some special teams action and some turnovers that lead to short fields that help the over. Manny Diaz has a lot of players out and hasn’t announced a starting QB. I am staying away from the spread. Miami lost to in-town “rival” FIU and that just confuses me.

 

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Boxing Day Soccer Predictions

92-78-9 on Soccer in 2018 up 8.17 units

64-61-12 on Soccer in 2019 down 26.51 units

Arsenal/Club Brugge Parlay risking 4 units to win 5.5 units. Club Brugge have only lost to PSG and Real Madrid at home this season. Yes, that is correct. Waregem just lost to the worst team in the league and now they travel to face the best team. Not going to overthink that one.

Am I the only one that thinks Mikel Arteta looks like a toe-shoe wearing lesbian?

Bournemouth have a lot of injuries, even more so than Arsenal. Bournemouth have lacked teeth in attack losing 6 of their last 7 league games. Arsenal took the Emery out of Arsenal, but they still haven’t taken the Arsenal out of Arsenal. I think the Gunners get back on track today. Pepe, Aubameyang, and Ozil should feature. Mikel Arteta has his work cut out for him, but he thinks Xhaka is terrific so that’s a start I guess.

Tottenham at -192 for 3 units. Tottenham have won every match they were a -150 favorite in or more since Mourinho took charge. Brighton have only beat Arsenal and Watford on the road this season. Son is out with a red card suspension, but Alli, Kane, Lucas, and others should be enough for Tottenham. Brighton have struggled to keep clean sheets. I expect Tottenham to outscore Brighton today.

Manchester United at -290 for 3 units. Man U looked bad against Watford, but I expect a bounce-back here. Manchester are still unbeaten at home since September. Rashford likes playing at home. Pogba is back healthy. His creativity has been missed at times. These teams are equal on points in the table, the Red Devils move ahead today.

Hawaii Bowl Prediction

71-52 on College Football in 2018 up 53.33 units

34-31-2 on College Football in 2019 up 13.51 units

I am on 4-6 on bowls and down about 3 units this bowl season. Still up big on the year. Putting a lot of it on the line here. Scared money don’t make money. Here is what I said a week ago about this game:

Hawaii Bowl – BYU Vs. Hawaii – 8:00 PM December 24th – ESPN

Hawaii +2 at -110 for 4 units. Home game for Hawaii. Have played in this bowl 3 of the past 4 years. Familiarity. Hawaii’s passing game will complete more big plays than BYU’s. I like taking the points with the home team that has a stronger offense. This game is on Christmas Eve. I can’t wait to get drunk and watch it while my family keeps themselves entertained.


 

I like everything I said a week ago.. which doesn’t always happen. I like it so much I am adding 8 units to the play at +2.5 at -110. No the line movement doesn’t scare me. So officially I like..

Hawaii +2.5 at -110 for 8 units and Hawaii +2 at -110 for 4 units. 12 units total. Hawaii is the more consistent team, while BYU’s highs are higher and lows are lower. BYU lost to Toledo in the midst of a 3 game losing streak, but then ended that streak with a win against Mountain West Champ Boise State. Hawaii has lost to Air Force, Fresno State, Boise State, Washington, and Boise State again. Hawaii has a solid o-line and a top-10 offense in passing efficiency. Miles Reed, the runningback for Hawaii, is no slouch. He had 5.4 yards a carry and 891 yards this season. His longest run was only 31 yards, which makes his 5.4 YPC even more impressive. He ran for over 7 yards a carry against Boise State in Hawaii’s last game. “There is a chance they can strap 50 points on our defense because they are that good,” BYU’s defensive coordinator Ilaisa Tuiaki said. If there is chance one team can drop a 50-burger on you, you take that team in gambling. Theres a 0% chance BYU drops 50 on Hawaii tonight.

I am betting almost all my profit this season on college football on this game. I am going to be watching it and drinking. My podcast co-host Katie and the family can wait.. I can celebrate the holidays with them tomorrow after I have some more money in my pockets. That Christmas Bonus courtesy of Hawaii is going to be nice.

Thank you for reading. Merry Christmas ya filthy animals.

Bowl Game Predictions

2-0 so far on bowls ATS. Had about 4 IPAs so can’t write right right now. But luckily I planned ahead. Click here for all your bowl betting needs before Christmas. Will evaluate the post-Christmas bowls more when I’m sober. Also, Texans ML at -165 for 8 units.

Go Heels! We are a football school now. Also, VCU is 9-2 and are a 5-point underdog against the Shockers today…

Sevilla were a lock on the podcast against Mallorca this Saturday morning..

SO MUCH SPORTS AHHHH

Dortmund at Hoffenheim Prediction

92-78-9 on Soccer in 2018 up 8.17 units

64-60-12 on Soccer in 2019 down 18.51 units

Dortmund at -115 for 8 units. Dortmund’s offense has been clicking lately. I wanted to wait to post this to make sure Sancho is starting, as Reus is out with an injury. Hoffenheim won their last match, but were struggling before that. Hoffenheim give up too many goals and Dortmund will capitalize. Dortmund’s defense let up not 1 but 2 terrible defensive mistakes that led to Werner being 1-1 with the goalkeeper and scoring. Borussia will tighten it up a little on defense and do enough on offense for the win. Also, Hoffenheim gave up a lot of chances to Union Berlin that Berlin did not take advantage of. Dortmund will take advantage of these situations.

William & Mary at St. Josephs Prediction and More – College Basketball Thursday

70-62-2 on NCAAB last season up 8.95 units

22-21-1 this season up 7.54 units

William & Mary at -125 for 7 units. Nathan Knight is averaging almost 20 and 10 for the Tribe. Luke Loewe and Bryce Barnes are solid guards for William & Mary. St. Josephs gives up over 80 points a game, while the Tribe give up under 70 on average. William & Mary have a huge advantage inside and the better defense. Take them on the road. The Tribe might make their first NCAA tournament this season…

Maryland at -300 for 2 units. Seton Hall have been blown out by worst teams than Maryland recently.. but are only giving 7 points. That line seems a little low to me, but I am playing it safe with the moneyline. Just some free money to offset the juice of the William and Mary bet.

Image result for bruce pearl

Auburn at -340 for 2 units. NC State has pretty good guards, but Auburn’s are better. The Tigers also have the advantage in the paint. The Wolfpack have been great ATS over their past 5, and Auburn have been poor at covering with spread losses to St. Louis and Furman recently. I am staying away from the spread, but Auburn are undefeated for a reason. I like them to keep it up at home tonight.

College Basketball December 18th – Gonzaga Handles Undermanned UNC

70-62-2 on NCAAB last season up 8.95 units

20-21-1 this season down 5.06 units

Gonzaga -12 at -110 for 12 units. Cole Anthony, Sterling Manley, and Leaky Black are not healthy. Any UNC fan will tell you Brandon Robinson should not be the best wing player/guard on a UNC team, but here we are. UNC will not be able to make 3s in this game. Gonzaga want this win for losing to UNC twice recently with once being in the 2017 National Title. Brooks and Bacot will get some easy buckets for UNC, but not a lot. No offense to Christian Keeling and KJ Smith of the Tar Heels, but they should not be starting for a UNC team and will get exposed by Gonzaga tonight. Keeling has had multiple shots not hit the rim in multiple games this season. He is starting for the Heels tonight. PLEASE BET THIS AND BUY YOUR MOM SOMETHING NICE FOR CHRISTMAS WITH THE MONEY. IT WILL WIN.

St Johns -9 at -110 for 2 units. Albany lost to Boston College by 21. St Johns is better than Boston College. I don’t like using transitive property in sports gambling, so the real reasons I like St Johns tonight… their size/athleticism and Albany’s injury problems.

 

Every College Football Bowl Game Until Christmas Preview – Prediction MEGA THREAD

71-52 on College Football in 2018 up 53.33 units

29-19-2 on College Football in 2019 up 16.89 units

Bahamas Bowl – Buffalo Vs. Charlotte – 2:00 PM December 20th

Buffalo -6.5 at -115 for 3 units. Buffalo goes up against a Charlotte team playing in their first ever bowl. Buffalo has never won a bowl game. Troy beat Buffalo 42-32 in last year’s bowl. Buffalo’s running game is insane. Jaret Patterson and Kevin Marks combined for 2,634 rushing yards and 25 touchdowns this season for Buffalo. The Bulls have the 4th best run defense in the nation. Charlotte are 1-5 when they don’t rush for 230 yards or more. I like this matchup for Buffalo. Take the favorite to kick off bowl season. I expect UB to be able to run the ball more and sustain drives better.

Tropical Smoothie Cafe Frisco Bowl – Kent State Vs. Utah State – 7:30 PM December 20th

Kent State +7.5 at -110 for 2 units. Dustin Crum and Jordan Love are two solid Qbs here. Love has announced his decision to enter the NFL draft after this Utah State season ends on Friday. Love has thrown a lot of interceptions this season. Kent State’s Crum has only thrown 2. Mike Carrigan is a stud wideout for Kent State. Stopping the run is a problem for Kent State, but I expect their offense to do enough to keep them in it.

Celebration Bowl – North Carolina A&T Vs. Alcorn State – Noon December 21st

Alcorn State +2.5 at -108 for 1 unit. Felix Harper was SWAC offensive player of the year for Alcorn State. State are 0-2 in this bowl, but this team is better than the other 2 that lost to A&T. Alcorn State led the FCS in forcing turnovers. If Alcorn State can limit Jah-Maine Martin, they will win this game; however, I am just here for the bands.

New Mexico Bowl – Central Michigan Vs. San Diego State – 2:00 PM December 21st

San Diego State -3.5 at -110 for 2 units. San Diego State has the best defense Central Michigan will face this season besides maybe Wisconsin. Central Michigan had under 60 yards against Wisconsin. I like San Diego’s State average offense to do enough while their defense shines for the win. San Diego State lost last year’s bowl game to Ohio 27-0. That won’t happen again this season.

Cure Bowl – Liberty Vs. Georgia Southern – 2:30 PM December 21st

Liberty at +165 for 2 units. Hugh Freeze is the highest paid head coach outside of the Power Five. He coached his first game this season from a hospital bed and now he finishes his season in the Cure Bowl. That irony is not lost on me! GA Southern gives up a lot of big plays, while Liberty can complete big plays. Stephen Calvert and Liberty’s passing game are legit. Georgia Southern could run Liberty to death, but I expect Liberty to focus on stopping the run while completing some big plays on their offensive side of the ball. The Flames figure out Southern’s option attack with the extra time to prepare and get the win.

Boca Raton Bowl – FAU Vs. SMU – 3:30 PM December 21st

SMU -3 at -110 for 2 units. Home game for the Owls of FAU, but that doesn’t scare me. Lane Kiffin has left for Mississippi. Willie Taggart will be the new coach next season for FAU. SMU has the offense to capitalize on FAU’s defense that gives up a lot of chunk plays.

Camellia Bowl – Arkansas State Vs. Florida International – 5:30 PM December 21st

FIU +2.5 at -110 for 3 units. FIU is 0-5 outside of Miami this season, but I like them to win this bowl game in Alabama. FIU pass defense is miles better than Arkansas State’s. James Morgan’s final game as FIU’s QB. He was hurt last season in FIU’s bowl game. If FIU can slow Omar Bayless (one of the best wideouts in college football), they will win easy.

Las Vegas Bowl – Boise State Vs. Washington – 7:30 PM December 21st

Over 49.5 at -112 for 2 units. The Chris Petersen Bowl Game. Petersen coached at Boise for 8 years before taking the job at Washington. He is retiring after this game. 3 of Boise State’s last 4 games went over this number. Memphis got the Cotton Bowl against Penn State instead of Boise State. Boise was/is pissed. I expect them to run the ball well and score in this one. Washington has a very good kicker, Peyton Henry, which helps overs. I think this number is a little too low for two solid offenses.

New Orleans Bowl – Appalachian State Vs. UAB – 9:00 PM December 21st

Appalachian State -16.5 at -110 for 3 units. App State is just plain better than UAB. UAB doesn’t have the ability to stop App State from running the ball. I would make this a huge play, but App’s motivation may not be all there with their coach leaving for Missouri and them missing out of the Cotton/Belk Bowl. UAB’s strength is their pass rush, but App State’s o-line matches up well. The Mountaineers win the turnover and yards battle on the way to an easy win.

Gasparilla Bowl – Marshall Vs. UCF – 2:30 PM December 23rd

Marshall +17.5 at -110 for 2 units. Marshall lost to Boise State by only 7. UCF lost to Tulsa. It all depends who shows up for each team. I like taking the points in games like this. Marshall rarely lose the turnover battle and have been playing good football over the past two months. Marshall can control the game with their running offense. I expect UCF to win, but 17.5 points is too much.

Hawaii Bowl – BYU Vs. Hawaii – 8:00 PM December 24th

Hawaii +2 at -110 for 4 units. Home game for Hawaii. Have played in this bowl 3 of the past 4 years. Familiarity. Hawaii’s passing game will complete more big plays than BYU’s. I like taking the points with the home team that has a stronger offense. This game is on Christmas Eve. I can’t wait to get drunk and watch it while my family keeps themselves entertained.

Soccer December 17th – Bundesliga Action and Predictions

92-78-9 on Soccer in 2018 up 8.17 units

63-57-11 on Soccer in 2019 down 13.32 units

Going with the home favorites, Augsburg, Dortmund, and Werder Bremen in Bundesliga today.

Dortmund at +128 for 5 units. 2 of the top 3 in the Bundesliga meet here today. Leipzig have won their past 6 matches in the league and are league leaders for a reason. Reus and Sancho are better than any players Leipzig have played lately. Dortmund have been scoring a lot of second-half goals, are great at home, and can lessen the gap for the league lead with a win. Timo Werner is second in the league in goals, but I like Dortmund’s offense to have their say today. Dortmund’s midfield is injured, but the “backups” looked great over the weekend.

Augsburg at -123 for 5 units. Dusselforf gave up a lot of goals to Dortmund, Bayern, and Leipzig recently. Augsburg are not on that level, but I still expect them to capitalize today. Augsburg are in the best form they have been in in a couple of years. Dusseldorf are worse on the road and Augsburg are better at home. Niederlechner can score and create for Augsburg. I like this spot.

Werder Bremen at -125 for 3 units. Mainz defense has struggled over the past couple of games. Werder Bremen have not kept a clean sheet all season, but there is a chance they do it today, Opponents have scored at least two goals in 11 of Mainz’s 15 Bundesliga matches this season. Milot Rashica is in-form. I like Werder Bremen at home today to win by 1 or 2 goals.

Augsburg/Dusseldorf over 3 at +120 for 2 units. Dusseldorf defense fade.

Dortmund/Leipzig under 3.5 at -130 for 2 unit. Leipzig have a solid defense and I expect them to slow the game down a little. Leipzig have the highest scoring offense in the league, but they won’t want to get into a shootout with Dortmund.