Weekend Parlay is inside. Big Weekend.
MLB Playoffs – NLDS
92-83 on MLB last season and went up 34.31 units
43-39 on MLB this season down 2.55 units
1-0 on playoffs up 2.88 units
Had an average MLB season, but I always feel more on-point in the playoffs. Last season I went up around 20 units in the playoffs. The Rays win was too easy. Charlie Morton at plus money against a pitcher lacking playoff experience are the angles I love this time of year. That Nationals/Brewers game was awesome! Milwaukee wouldn’t have lost that game with Yelich, but congrats to the Nats (and Rays). Onto the NLDS
Braves/Cardinals under 9.5Â at -110 for 1 unit. Mikolas allowed 1 run in 7 2/3 innings last time out against the Cubs. Keuchel has an ERA under 3 in his last 8 starts. Keuchel has been giving up some homers, but I’ll sprinkle a little on a pitcher’s duel.
Dodgers at -171 for 3 units. Dodgers are better than the Nationals. The Dodgers have the best bullpen ERA in the NL. The Nationals have the worst. Turner is healthy. Bellinger’s inability to bend his knees in the batter’s box will continue to throw pitchers off. I watched Ferris Bueller’s Day Off recently, so Buehler has to get the win for Dodgers. That’s just how it works.
Thursday Night Football – Rams at Seahawks
69-58-5Â on the NFL last season (2018/19)Â up 26.36 units
13-24 on the NFL this season down 26.89 units
Rams +1.5Â at -110 for 4 units. Head coach Sean McVay is 10-2 vs the division. Seattle has their worst defense in.. well.. about a decade (allowing 22.3 PPG). McVay should be able to scheme up some big plays against this Seattle secondary. Cooper Kupp is off to the best start of his career. He literally looks faster than before he tore his acl. Kupp got injured against Seattle last season.
Goff threw for 517 yards in the loss last week to the Bucs. He could have thrown for 650 yards honestly. Even with all those yards, it was not Goff’s best game. Still, Seattle will struggle to put up points like Arians, Godwin, and Evans did. Jadeveon Clowney, Rasheem Green, and Quinton Jefferson are all pass-rushing studs, but the Seattle’s secondary doesn’t scare me. LA’s secondary hasn’t been terrible, but the pass rush has to step up. Dante Fowler and Clay Matthews need to dominate, while Donald is getting double and triple-teamed. Gurley gets more touches than last week and the Rams complete more big plays for the cover.
B. Cooks over 4.5 catches at -125 for 1 unit. Cooks has had 8 and 6 receptions the past two weeks respectively. Kupp and Woods are both projected for more catches by Vegas. I’ll take the lowest over/under number of the 3 against this weak Seattle secondary.
Europa League Action
92-78-9Â on Soccer in 2018Â up 8.17 units
51-39-10Â on Soccer in 2019Â up 3.68Â units
Basel at +142 for 3 units. This Basel team is really fucking good. Yes, they tied some Young Boys club recently, but they won their last group game against Krasnodar 5-0. Valentin Stocker is having his best season since rejoining the club. Young Brazilian striker Arthur has been scoring recently. Kemal Ademi is averaging a goal an appearance for the club. 5 clean sheets in their last 6 for Basel. The squad is clicking. Trabzonspor played well against a bad Besiktas team, but Basel is a step-up in competition.
Besiktas/Wolves over 2.5Â at -119 for 3 units.
Wolves at +124 for 3 units. Besiktas’s defense is a sieve.
Arsenal/Sevilla Parlay risking 3 units to win 1.64 units. Sevilla have Barcelona over the weekend, so they may rest some players; however, APOEL’s defense will not be enough for Sevilla’s crosses and forward play. Arsenal has some players coming back into the squad including Bellerin and Holding. Ozil, Pepe, and others will get the job done.
Champions League Continued
Arsenal drawing yesterday helped me to two units. McTominay had a stunning strike in the first half for Manchester United, but Aubameyang pulled it back in the second half. McTominay has been improving lately, but both these clubs need more improvement if they want to dream of reaching the standard that Liverpool/Man City have set..
Onto Champions..
92-78-9Â on Soccer in 2018Â up 8.17 units
51-37-10Â on Soccer in 2019Â up 8.68Â units
Real Madrid -1.5Â at -120 for 4 units. I watched Real Madrid play Sevilla and Atletico recently. They secured 4 points against those two tough-to-play clubs. The Real defense looked a lot better than against PSG in those games… That’ll happen when Sergio Ramos is allowed back in the lineup. Real Madrid have struggled at home in the Champions League losing to Ajax and Juve, while tying Bayern. Club Brugge have not lost in their last 3 away games vs teams with a higher UEFA score in Champions League. Even so, I expect Hazard, Benzema, Ramos, Varane, Modric, Casemiro, and Kroos to get the job done. Real Madrid will be ready to play today.
Vinicius Junior scored a fantastic goal against Osasuna recently. His teammates were happy for him, which is nice to see. Junior has all the talent, but hasn’t put it all together in games. Here’s to hoping he does today as a sub.
Tottenham +0.5Â at -127 for 1 unit. Harry Kane vs Lewandowski. Bayern’s pace at winger and creativity with Coutinho, Kimmich, and Thiago worries me a little.. but not enough. Tottenham have been great at home in Champions League against top clubs over the past few years. The Lilywhites “need” this win more than Bayern, as they are two points behind in the group.
Burfict Suspended for Rest of Season
Good. After 14 offenses, it is about time he got a longer suspension. The hit on Doyle was dirty and then Burfict blew kisses and smiled off the field. He made the decision easy for Goodell.
Arsenal at Manchester United
92-78-9Â on Soccer in 2018Â up 8.17 units
50-37-10Â on Soccer in 2019Â up 6.46Â units
Arsenal +0.5Â at -135 for 3 units. Gomes and Pogba are not fully-fit in the midfield for Manchester United. Pogba and Rashford are in the squad, but Aaron Wan-Bissaka is not. Manchester United’s left and right back, whoever plays, are going to have problems with Arsenal’s speed. Ashley Young does not have the pace he used to.. Aubameyang is still fast. Arsenal has some defenders on their way back into the lineup in Holding and Bellerin. I think Arsenal will score some goals in this match, I am not convinced United will. Taking the underdog on the road here.
Monday Night Football – Bengals at Steelers – Panthers Win!
Chiefs won, but the Patriots didn’t cover. Tom Brady seemed to not see a defender in the RedZone and threw a un-Tom-Brady-like interception. The Buffalo defense is good, but New England has the better team. New England forced Josh Allen to stay in the pocket, Allen was only 1-3 outside of the pocket with an interception. Allen got knocked out of the game by Jones, but should be okay. Bills and Patriots now go back to their super easy schedules.
Kansas City won because of Kerryon Johnson’s fumble going into the endzone.. which Breeland picked up for a 100 yard fumble recovery touchdown. McCoy and Da. Williams looked solid, Mahomes will have better games.
My Panthers win!! Watson missed a deep ball to Will Fuller and Nuk in the game, that could have been the difference. Watson had insightful comments about the Panthers defense after the game..
Kinda annoying the Saints and Bucs won too as a Panthers fan, but a wins a win a win.
69-58-5Â on the NFL last season (2018/19)Â up 26.36 units
12-20 on the NFL this season down 19.52 units
Tonight’s Plays:Â
Bengals +3Â at +105 for 3 units.
Bengals/Steelers over 44.5Â at -116 for 3 units. Pittsburgh has won their last 8 games against the Bengals, but Big Ben, Bell, and/or AB were playing in those. The Steelers run defense has been bad. Mason Rudolph has only completed 56.5% of his passes, while James Conner is averaging less than 3 yards a carry this season. Geno Atkins is going to have to step-up for the Bengals.. Eifert and Mixon are going to have to be involved in the passing game more. People are predicting an ugly game, but these defenses have been bad at tackling and great at giving up big plays. I expect some defensive lapses that lead to points. Bengals win 28-24.
Joe Mixon will have 15 or more carries at -140 for 4 units.
Joe Mixon will score 1 or more touchdown(s)Â at +110 for 2 units.
Joe Mixon will have over 18.5 recieving yards at -120 for 2 units. Pittsburgh is bottom-5 in the NFL at defending against running-backs. Joe Mixon has 100+ scrimmage yards or a TD in 2 straight games vs. Pittsburgh. Jeff Wilson Jr. got two touchdowns against Pittsburgh last week. Joe > Jeff. Pittsburgh gives up around 5 yards a carry. I think Mixon is going to feast tonight. Mixon has struggled a little this season, but he improved last week with 4 yards a carry against a great Buffalo defense. I expect he continues his higher level of play tonight.
NFL Sunday Week 4
We’ve got two meetings of undefeated teams this week. New England and Buffalo. Chiefs at the 2-0-1 Lions. Monday Night features two teams that haven’t won a game in the Steelers and Bengals. The Dolphins are 15 points or more underdogs again. I’m excited to watch Kyle Allen and Daniel Jones start again. Let’s get it
69-58-5Â on the NFL last season (2018/19)Â up 26.36 units
12-18 on the NFL this season down 12.52 units
Patriots -7/Chiefs Parlay risking 5 units to win 7.48 units. Lions safety Quandre Diggs said. “He’s going to break every record in NFL history if he keeps this up” when speaking of Patrick Mahomes. There is the Mahomes – last time he played indoors he threw for 586 yards and 6 touchdowns angle. I just don’t see the Lions beating Kansas City. Kelce is going to be a problem. Shady McCoy and Dimebag Darrel will hold down the backfield. Stafford has been spreading the ball around well, 4 different players have a 100 yard receiving game this year Detroit.. Kansas City will give up some points, but I like them to get some big plays like they do every week.
Patriots should be favored by 10. The Bills have lost 6 straight to the Patriots. Buffalo’s talented young RB, Devin Singletary is out with a hamstring injury. He can have mine if he wants. Tom Brady hasn’t played well against the Bills lately, but the Patriots had 273 yards rushing against the Bills last December. James White is back in the lineup. Burkhead is probably playing. Buffalo does have a good defense this year, but the Pats defense is on another level. Neither of these teams have played anybody good yet, but I’m going with the team that has given up less than 6 points a game.
Colts -7Â at +110 for 2 units. Raiders are bad. Mack is good, The running-back for the Colts – and the one they traded away. Derek Carr is 11-23 since breaking his leg against Indianapolis. Darius Leonard, T.Y. Hilton, and Malik Hooker are out, but I don’t care.
Podcast Episode 4 – Locks and Thoughts
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