Euro Qualifiers

92-78-9 on Soccer in 2018 up 8.17 units

37-32-9 on Soccer in 2019 down 9.41 units

Portugal/Serbia/England/Turkey Parlay risking 3 units to win 3.65 units. All these teams “need” a win and are heavy favorites. Serbia at Luxembourg could be the parlay killer, as Serbia has got a red card on the road in 2 of their past 4 away games; however, I trust Dusan Tadic and Serbia to get it done.

France first half -2 at -117 for 2 units. France is favored by 4.5 against Andorra for the game. Andorra is bottom of the group. I expect France to come out swinging.

Portugal first half -1 at -134 for 2 units. Lithuania have not scored more than once in their last 9 home matches. Ronaldo, Bernardo Silva, and Joao Felix will get the job done. Portugal won their last match, predicted it on the podcast, and Serbia fans were chanting “Messi” to Ronaldo… Ronaldo scored shortly after the chant got loud to shut them up.. I like Messi more, but Ronaldo is amazing.

NFL Monday Night Football

69-58-5 on the NFL last season (2018/19) up 26.36 units

3-5 on the NFL this season down 2.95 units 

Texans +7 at -120 for 2 units. Have the Saints in one of my 3 survivors because I forgot to pick a team, so I am hedging a little here. I do like the Texans every year before Watson and Watt get injured. Xavier Crawford, Keke, and some offensive linemen are out, but Houston should be able to put up points. New Orleans has some starters out on defense, so I like this spot.

Broncos -3 at -103 for 2 units. I don’t think the Raiders would have been good with a level-headed AB on the field… I think they will struggle this year without him for sure. The Broncos should be a little more talented than last year. Denver had a lot of injuries and weak QB play last season. I don’t particularly like Flacco, but he is better than Denver’s QBs last year. Gruden and Carr Fade.

Duke Johnson Jr will have at least 4 receptions at -130 for 5 units. Duke Johnson will have a lot of catches, especially if the Texans get down like the spread predicts. Carlos Hyde doesn’t scare me.

MLB September 9th

92-83 on MLB last season and went up 34.31 units

43-39 on MLB this season down 2.46 units

Phillies at -131 for 4 units. Still don’t trust Folty for the Braves. Nola and the Phillies need a win here. Atlanta has the luxury of being up big in the division. Donaldson is the only Braves batter with a solid average against Nola. Phillies close the wild card gap a little tonight.

NFL Sunday Week 1

69-58-5 on the NFL last season (2018/19) up 26.36 units

1-3 on the NFL this season down 0.60 units 

It’s here! Waffle House for breakfast and then RedZone all damn day. Panthers 1 PM (I can’t wait to see the dancing robot on FOX). Went and saw UNC beat Miami on a last minute touchdown (that touchdown hit the over), so I am a little hungover. Antonio Brown’s fantasy owners were pissed for all of 24 hours, but now they are no doubt happy he is on the Patriots now. This is such a Patriot signing it makes me sicker than this hangover.

Everybody and their mom is on the Eagles -10, but I am staying away from that game. Case Keenum is average, but I think Guice, Jordan Reed, and Washington’s defense can have a good year if they stay healthy. The Eagles will try to get back to being one of the best teams in the NFC again, so they have to win here.

Ravens -7 is also a public play, but I am staying away.

Falcons +3.5 for 3 units. Julio Jones is now the highest paid wide receiver in the league at 22 million a year. He is gonna ball out this year. Kirk Cousins doesn’t inspire me. Matt Ryan is good in a dome. I think this Falcons defense will be better this year than some think. Atlanta had like 18 safeties get injured last year, I expect the healthier secondary to contain Diggs and Thielen enough for a cover. Interested to see if Calvin Ridley and Austin Hooper can take the next step this year.

Titans +5.5 for 2 units. Browns should win this game, but I just like the Titans. Adam Humphries and Delanie Walker are not sexy, but they are good NFL Players for Mariota to have this season. Odell, Jarvis Landry, and Chubb are great weapons for Baker. The Browns defensive line should be good.. Week 1’s are weird and I think this will be an ugly game. Taking the points.

Colts +6.5 at -110 for 1 unit. Indy’s offensive line is the still one of the best in the league and I think they can neutralize San Diego’s defensive line. Need TY Hilton and Marlon Mack to step up.

Patriots/Steelers over 49 at -108 for 3 units. Let’s see if the gambling gods like us this year. Have to bet the Sunday night over. Patriots defenses usually start out the season slow. Brady, Edelman, White, and Michel should be enough for the Patriots to put up at least 3 touchdowns. JuJu and James Connor are gonna be studs this season. Be nice gambling gods!!

College Football September 7th

71-52 on College Football in 2018 up 53.33 units

16-12 on Bowls up 8.48 units

2-0 on College Football in 2019 up 6.31 units 

1 Pending Parlay: Boise State/Ohio State/Clemson/Auburn/Kentucky Parlay risking 4 units to win 3.97 units.

UCLA -7.5 at -110 for 5 units. San Diego State beat Weber State 6-0 in the opener. I like UCLA to take care of business at home. Don’t do me wrong Chip Kelly.

Miami/North Carolina over 46 at -112 for 3 units. Going to this game. Have to bet the over.

Syracuse +1.5 for 1 unit. Syracuse wins this game on the offensive and defensive line.

New Sportsologists Podcast

Our New Podcast: Thoughts and Locks by Sportsologists

There is an intro episode posted above. Episode 1 is below. The sound quality is below-average, but the content is there. Neal and I will be recording our picks on there so stay tuned. We will be purchasing better equipment. Even NPR started somewhere… and our gambling picks are already way better than theirs..

 

College Football – Boise State, Ohio State, Auburn, Clemson, and Kentucky

71-52 on College Football in 2018 up 53.33 units

16-12 on Bowls up 8.48 units

2-0 on College Football in 2019 up 6.31 units 

Houston and Wisconsin have both covered for me. It has been a good start to the college football season. Looking at the numbers for the weekend, but I like this parlay of favorites. Not the sharpest, but these teams all have a high probability of winning.

Boise State/Ohio State/Clemson/Auburn/Kentucky Parlay risking 4 units to win 3.97 units. Bachmeier is playing his first game on the blue turf tonight. The Freshman QB was impressive in Week 0 and I expect that to carry over. Marshall should struggle a little on the road against Boise.

Ohio State’s run defense should cause Cincinnati problems. Luke Fickell is playing against his old Buckeyes here. I don’t think Ohio State should be a two touchdown favorite, but I like them to win the game.

Clemson is Clemson and they have Trevor Lawrence. Auburn beat Oregon and now they face the Green Wave. Tulane ran the ball all over FIU, but I expect Auburn to force them to pass, which means Tulane will have a hard time sustaining drives. Kentucky struggled a smidge vs Toledo, I expect them to come out firing against Eastern Michigan.

US Open Men’s Semi-Finals

91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

44-52 on tennis in 2019 down 49.77 units

D. Medvedev -2.5 Double Faults at -130 for 4 units. Medvedev’s abductor/thigh/core problem has caused him to double fault a lot more than normal in this tournament. The Russian had 12 double faults in his last match against Wawrinka. Dimitrov played a longer match than Medvedev (a win against Federer), but only had 7 double faults. Medvedev has had more double faults than his opponent in his last 4 rounds.

Nadal/Berrettini over 30.5 at -108 for 1 unit. I think Berrettini has a strong enough serve to win a set. Berrettini’s inside-in forehand has been world-class this tournament. Nadal is Nadal and the clear favorite to win this tournament, but I expect a little more drama here.

NFL Season Opener – Packers at Bears

69-58-5 on the NFL last season (2018/19) up 26.36 units

0-2 on the NFL this season down 3.00 units 

Rodgers over 2 Tds/David Montgomery over 48.5 yards at +127 for 2 units. Aaron Rodgers will throw for 2 touchdowns in this new offense. I am confident. A lot of people love David Montgomery, I am not that high on him, but I think he can get 50 yards in the Jordan Howard role at least.

Tarik Cohen over 3.5 receptions at +110 for 4 units. Screens. Check-downs. Cohen had 71 receptions last season. 71 divided by 16 is 4.4375 receptions a game. Jordan Howard is gone. Montgomery has been added. I still think Cohen will have a similar role. If the Bears are down, Cohen is going to catch some balls, but even if he is not I like this play.

Euro Qualifiers

92-78-9 on Soccer in 2018 up 8.17 units

36-32-9 on Soccer in 2019 down 12.41 units

Spain at -200 for 6 units. Romania has done well against lower-ranked teams, but this is a step-up in competition. Spain have scored at least 2 goals in every away game since the World Cup. Romania are actually undefeated at home against Spain in their last 6 matches. Impressive, but those games date back decades. Spain has the better national team now. Morata (or Alcacer), Ramos, Isco, Asensio, and others should get the job done. Keseru has been scoring for Romania, but Ramos and Alba should be able to contain him.