Baseball

MLB September 5th

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92-83 on MLB last season and went up 34.31 units

42-39 on MLB this season down 4.86 units

When the Mets were up 10-4 in the bottom of the 9th, I thought they had it won. I am no Mets fan, but I learned what it is like to be a Mets fan over the past few decades on September 3rd, 2019. It was a slow burn of the Nationals scoring 7 runs in the 9th that ended with a walk-off bomb. It pushed the Mets further out of the playoffs. I still won money on the day thanks to the Twins, but Jesus Mets.

Tigers first 5 at -130 for 3 units. Matthew Boyd. Royals can’t hit that well. Kansas City have won 4 in a row, but I think they lose the first 5 today. Merrifield is an impressive 17-36 against Boyd. If Boyd can handle the KC leadoff man, this should win easy.

Baseball

MLB September 3rd

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92-83 on MLB last season and went up 34.31 units

41-38 on MLB this season down 5.46 units

Twins at +130 for 2 units. The Red Sox have to go on a win streak they haven’t gone on all season to make the playoffs. The Twins have just been the better team this year. Minnesota have won 8 of their last 9. Have to take them at plus money.

Mets at +124 for 2 units. Mets need this win more than the Nationals do. DeGrom and Scherzer today. Two greats. Max hasn’t pitched more than 5 innings in his last 3 starts. I like deGrom to go deeper in the game and that may be the difference in who wins this one. The Mets won both deGrom-Scherzer matchups already played this season.

Tennis

US Open – Men’s Quartefinals

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91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

44-50 on tennis in 2019 down 41.77 units

Djokovic’s shoulder caused him to not be himself and retire against Stan Wawrinka. Wawrinka played great though. Wawrinka’s fellow Swissman, Roger Federer, has to be a little happy that Djokovic can’t narrow the Grand Slam title gap even more this year. It is now Fedal’s tournament to lose.

Wawrinka -1.5 at -112 for 2 units. Medvedev has an abductor problem and has been taking a lot of pain pills. He overcame his injury, the crowd, and a set/break deficit to beat Dominik Koepfer in 4 sets.

“I took as many painkillers as I could. And you guys, being against me, you gave me so much energy to win. Thank you. Guys, continue to give me this energy,” Medvedev trolling the fans during his post-match on-court interview.

Medvedev is the 5th highest seed the World, but an underdog in this match. I could see Medvedev getting broken early in a set and giving up the set 6-2 or 6-1. That would be huge for the spread. I would not be shocked if Wawrinka covered and lost the match because of Medvedev’s injury. Going with the more experienced, healthier player here.

Federer -6.5 at -112 for 6 units. Federer is in his groove. He started off slow the first two matches this tournament… and it seems Vegas hasn’t adjusted to his strong starts in his last two matches. He should be -8.5 according to my numbers (not a system just basic stats) in this match. Grigor Dimitrov has only won 2 sets in 7 meetings against Federer and never won a match against Fed. Dimitrov has had an easy road here for the US Open, but now it gets a lot tougher. Federer is far too consistent for this to be a close match in my eyes. Federer will be eager to make his first semi here since 2015. This tournament has been a good sign for Dimitrov next season..

Football

Oklahoma – Houston

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71-52 on College Football in 2018 up 53.33 units

16-12 on Bowls up 8.48 units

1-0 on College Football in 2019 up 4.55 units 

Auburn beat Oregon. Mack Brown and North Carolina beat South Carolina. Alabama rolled Duke. I am silly happy football is back.

Houston +23 at -115 for 2 units. The debut of Jalen Hurts for Oklahoma tonight. The Qb that is built like a runningback should do well in the Oklahoma offense. OU’s defense last year was terrible. Houston should score enough to cover. I expect OU to run the ball more and have a lower-scoring, but efficient offense.

Football

College Football Has Begun

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71-52 on College Football in 2018 up 53.33 units

16-12 on Bowls up 8.48 units

Hand up, I had Bama and the under in the Championship. I lost both plays, but still had a good season. I can’t lose 3 bets in a row on college football right?

Wisconsin -10 at -110 for 5 units. Look it, This Jonathan Taylor guy is a beast. The Doak Walker award winner of last season gets to run behind another strong Wisconsin o-line. USF was one of the worst teams in the country last season against the run and they lost two of their best tacklers. Tackling matters in football. The Badgers passed on only 36.5% of plays last season. That’s third lowest out of the Power 5 schools. They will be looking for more balance this year… but JT is too damn good not to feed. The Badgers only had two passing plays over 36 yards last season. I think they get a long passing play tonight. The game could be close around halftime, but I expect the Badgers to wear down the USF defense in the second half and win by 14-17 points.

Tennis

US Open Continued

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91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

43-49 on tennis in 2019 down 42.98 units

Federer -7 at +105 for 4 units. Fed has been getting off to slow starts at the US Open. It makes sense because he has only played in one tournament since Wimbledon. The rust ends today. He came on strong towards the end of his last match against one of his practice partners Dzumhur. I expect that to carry over. I think this line should be -8.5 or -9. Send it.

Football

NFL Preseason Week 4 – Luck Retired – Elliot and Gordon Still Haven’t Been Paid

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69-58-5 on the NFL last season (2018/19) up 26.36 units

0-0 on the NFL this season

Going full degenerate and betting on the final preseason week. I know there is college football, but why bet on games that matter when you can bet on games that don’t (I know they matter to the people trying not to be cut).

Melvin Gordon and Zeke still haven’t reported to camp. They are sliding in fantasy drafts because of their lack of showing up. The NFL does need to change the rookie contract scale for runningbacks, 4/5 years is too long for a runningback to wait for his big payday. Jerry Jones should trade for Gordon and pay him 14 million a year and save a little money…

Andrew Luck retired and Indy fans booed him. Suck for Luck worked.. kinda. Luck is a smart man and if he wants to use his arm in 20 years, retiring was prolly the right move. He made over $70 million in his career, he should be good. He seems more fiscally responsible than Mike Tyson, Antoine Walker, 50 Cent, and others that have squandered their millions. I relate the Colts booing him to Toronto cheering for the KD injury. Fans do dumb shit out of raw emotion.

Vikings at -150 for 2 units. I listen to Pardon My Take. PFT loves Kyle Sloter, the backup’s backup QB for Minnesota. Sloter should get a lot of playing time tonight. He has thrown 10 touchdowns and 0 interceptions in his preseason career. Will the Bills cut McCoy and save 6 million? Stay tuned. The Cowboys/Texans and others could use him. I know I know, I am good at this gambling thing, betting on the top sports’ podcasts satirical info is as insider as you can get.

Redskins at +210 for 1 unit. Washington is the biggest underdog on the day, so I am going to take them. “Trace” McSorley III doesn’t scare me in his homecoming game. Aaron Rader has more insight into the game if you want more info. But it’s preseason so just send it.

Just need one of these to win to be up on the year going into the season. Just looking for some good juju here…

Survivor Pool Picks Week 1: Seahawks and Eagles. I am in 4 pools and chose each of them twice.

Tennis

US Open Thursday August 29th

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91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

42-48 on tennis in 2019 down 43.78 units

A lot of tennis to be played today with the rain yesterday. Multiple top seeds have already been knocked out like Thiem and Tsitsipas. This is still Djokovic’s tournament to lose in my mind..

Wawrinka at -248 for 7 units. Wawrinka is 5-0 against Jeremy Chardy in his career. Chardy has lost in this round in over half his appearances here at the US Open. In his first round match, Chardy was on the court for over 5 hours in his win against Hubert Hurkacz. Fitness could be a concern for the Frenchman. Stan won his most recent slam here in 2016. He likes this place. Wawrinka is far more consistent and should be closer to -400 IMO.

Nishioka at -222 for 2 units. Nishioka does have some fitness concerns, which is why this isn’t a higher unit play. Feliciano Lopez lost to Nishioka in straight sets in their only other meeting. Going with the left-handed Japanese man today.

Tennis

ATP Cincinnati – August 14th

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91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

42-47 on tennis in 2019 down 39.78 units

Tsitsipas/Wawrinka/Zverev Parlay risking 4 units to win 12.86 units. Struff beat Tsitsipas earlier this year. The Greek won’t want that to happen again. Neither of these players are playing their best tennis right now, but Tsitsipas is the better player. Struff has had a great 2019 but his standards, but has been slipping recently. I like Stefanos to do enough today against the strong Struff serve.

Wawrinka and Rublev meet today. Wawrinka leads the H2H 1-0, but that match was a couple years ago. Rublev has struggled since his back injury last year, but has turned it up lately. I just like Wawrinka’s ability to fight back. Wawrinka is 6-2 in the second round here. He lost in the second round to a Russian last week… I don’t think that’ll happen twice in a row.

Miomir Kecmanovic is in great form, and Zverev is not. Alexanders Zverev is great in Masters 1000 events, but he has never won a match in Cincy in 6 appearances here. He will get at least one win this time around.