4-1 in snooker up 5.02 units
Judd Trump ML at -170 for 2 units. Riding Mark Williams to some unit gains was fun, but Trump is one of the few guys that I think he has little to no chance against. Trump has won the last 10 meetings between these two and that has to be in Mark’s head. Mark has been playing some solid frames at this tournament, but I think his run ends here. Best of luck.
15-10-1 on NCAAB in 2017 up 5.25 units
24-19 on NCAAB in 2018 up 11.28 units
A lot of college basketball games today, so I have a big card. Best of luck.
UVA -5 for 3 units. A sort of sucker line here, but I am going to bet it. UVA is 14-4-1 against the spread this year. I have said it before, but I think Virginia’s unsexy style of play keeps people from betting them, so Vegas does not give them the respect they deserve. Both these teams score 69.2 points a game, but UVA obviously has the better defense. Have been winning money on UVA all year so I am not gonna stop now (well unless they do not cover).
Kentucky +2 for 2 units. Earlier in the year Kentucky looked out of sync, but that second half against West Virginia has made me reevaluate them as a team. Missouri plays a weird kinda selfish brand of basketball that Kentucky should be able to beat. I think Kentucky has the advantage in the paint and on defense so I am taking them here on the road. I think that ugly South Carolina road loss for Kentucky was an outlier, but we will find out.
Texas A&M -7 for 2 units. I just think the Aggies will dominate the paint in this game and get South Carolina’s bigs in foul trouble. This is more of a hunch/gut play than anything my numbers say. The Aggies have to win games like this if they want to make the tournament. Always like the home team in an early game vs a team that is traveling over 1,000 miles west.
Pittsburgh +21.5 for 2 units. I know Pittsburgh is bad, but UNC has been playing awful. I think Pittsburgh may be just the thing UNC needs to get back on track, but that does not mean they will win by 22 or more. Pittsburgh has looked a little better in their past 3 games against Miami, Syracuse, and NC State. UNC has to play a lot better defense if they want to go as far as they have the past two years.
Saint Marys CA -10 for 2 units. Buying a half point here. Have not heard much talk about this team as I live on the east coast, but they have been playing some great basketball. Saint Marys passes the ball well and has won 17 games in a row. This win streak is a school record for the Gaels. San Diego looked good against Gonzaga covering the spread while still losing. I just think this is a tough spot for San Diego playing the two best teams in the conference (and maybe the entire west coast) back to back.
3-2 in Hockey up 7.86 units
Finland Liiga
Karpat +0 for 3 units at -118. Two of the top teams in the league here. Karpat has been playing a lot better this year and has not lost an away game since December 26th. Karpat has the top assist man in Junttila and the leading goal man in Bertrand. I’m taking the hotter team here.
Jyvaskyla ML for 3 units at -129. JYP lost this matchup 5-0 earlier this year and they will want revenge. Jyvaskyla have been playing some solid hockey this calender year and kalPa is not all that good away from home. JYP has the better attacking players so I am going to side with them.
NHL
Blackhawks ML for 2 units at +111. Flames fade. Flames have lost their last 6 games. Blackhawks need to pick it up a little if they want to win another Stanley Cup. Flames have been giving up 4 goals a game over their last 5. Take Chicago at plus money.
30-21-1 in soccer up 2.14 units
Bayern Munich ML for 4 units at -330. Bayern may let up in their domestic league once Champions league starts back up, but for now they are a fairly safe play. Mainz only have 4 points in their past 5 games and now they get the league leaders visiting. Neuer being out always worries me for Munich, but Adler is out for Mainz too so that is a wash.
Away Teams Saturday Premier League +3.5 for 3 units at -103. Manchester City blowing out Burnley will help this bet win. Everton looked good over the weekend with Walcott, while Arsenal struggled without him. If Everton can keep it close, a lot of the other games are toss ups. If Manchester United beats Huddersfield by more than Man City can beat Burnley, this bet may lose.. but I like the away teams on this Saturday in England.
Swansea City +0.5 for 2 units at +104. Leicester just isn’t the same without Mahrez. They win a little over 40% of games when he plays, and less than 30% of games when Mahrez does not play. Swansea is in better form over the past 5 games. Swansea should have tied the first meeting between these two teams, but an own goal kept them from securing any points. Swansea is playing better since then and Leicester is not.
Celta Vigo ML for 2 unit at +178.
Celta Vigo +0 for 2 units at -102. Vigo have been in the second best form in the league under my estimation behind Barcelona so I’ll take them at plus money. Iago Aspas is deadly with his left foot as Betis can attest. Wass has been pulling the strings in the midfield well all year long. Vigo’s only loss this calendar year is Barcelona. Take the better team.
