Day: April 26, 2018

17-17-1 on NBA Playoffs up 9.05 units

Lebron drilled the game winning 3 to put the Cavs up 3-2. Oladipo and the Pacers were rightfully bummed the Lebron goaltending on the possession before wasn’t called. Lebron did what he had to do though. The Raptors won their game against the Wizards behind Jonas Valanciunas, Delon Wright, and DeRozan. Wizards fell apart in the 4th quarter like they have been doing all season. Beal had a decent game, but it seems he struggles on hesi pull up mid range jumpers.. DeRozan doesn’t struggle with those. Westbrook and Paul George went off. Westbrook probably should have been suspended for coming on the court to confront Gobert in the game before but whatever NBA wants their stars to play. 45-15-12 is simply amazing for Russ. Rockets cruised to a win behind a big 3rd quarter like I thought they would. Up 9 units, but my goal is to be up 20 by the end of the playoffs.

Bucks ML at -200 for 2 units. Home team has won every game. Line is -4 for the Bucks. I don’t think Giannis will lose a win or go home game in Wisconsin. Bucks will move the ball better and make more shots than they did last time out in Boston.

Bucks Celtics over 200 for 2 units. Only one game has gone under this series. The Bucks role players shoot a lot better at home. Bucks shot 27% from deep in the last game, that number should go up a little. Giannis only had 10 shots in the last game, that has to go up for this bet to win.

 

Betting big on the draft tonight. Feel good about these. Being a little undisciplined here, but money.

• #1 overall pick

Sam Darnold at +175 for 1 unit.

Saquon Barkley at +1000 for 1 unit. The thinking here is that Barkley is the best player in the draft according to me and many others. The Browns have the number 4 pick too, so they could draft Barkley and then get whatever QB falls to them at 4. Baker Mayfield is the favorite on this bet, but I just think Sam Darnold has a higher chance of going before Baker.

• Total Running Backs drafted in the first round

Over 1.5 at -250 for 8 units. Barkley will go in the first round. I think Sony Michel and Darrius Guice have a high chance of going in the first round. Guice is at the draft, which makes me think 1 or 2 teams said they would draft him in the first round.

• Calvin Ridley draft postion

Under 19.5 at -120 for 4 units. I think a team like the Titans or Panthers could trade up to get him. Also, the Ravens, Cardinals, and Cowboys could pick him before pick 19. This one seems too easy.

 

31-30-4 in Hockey up 6.73 units

Capitals ML at -123 for 3 units. No Malkin or Hagelin for the Penguins. Look for the Capitals to get some goals on the power play with Hagelin out. Trotz made a mistake not starting Holtby at the beginning of the last series. The Caps are 1-9 against the Penguins in a playoff series. Ovechkin mentioned that the law of averages should work out and they are not discouraged by that stat. I like his line of thinking.

Sharks ML at +127 for 3 units. Sharks made it to the Stanley Cup Finals recently before losing to the Penguins. I think that experience helps them here in what should be a close game. Both of these teams have goalies playing at high levels and both have had a lot of days off after dominating their first round matchups. I think history is made tonight and the Knights get their first playoff loss. Sharks did not win in Vegas this season, but the games were close and the playoffs are a different animal.

18-18 on MLB down 2.28 units

Tilted a little bit last night but it worked. Let’s get back to being a little more disciplined.

Braves ML at -130 for 3 units. Similar starting pitchers here. Homer Bailey has given up more home runs for the Reds than Sean Newcomb has for the Braves. Braves are 7-1 in day games. Reds are 1-10. Newcomb also looked better last time out than Bailey. I just think the Braves are better and I thought this line would be closer to -150 so I am taking the value.

Diamondbacks ML at +106 for 3 units. Matt Koch is a better pitcher than Ben Lively. Both of these pitchers are young. Lively had a “quality” start last time out, but if you look closer, he got out of a few tight spots and still did not get a win. Lively has given up more than 6 hits in every other MLB start. Koch looked good last time out vs the Padres, but the Diamondbacks only got 1 hit in that game. I expect more run support for Koch here.

Indians ML at -108 for 3 units. Similar angle to the Diamondbacks game. I like Mike Clevinger more than James Paxton. The have pitched the same amount of innings and Paxton has given up 3 more homers and 10 more baserunners. Paxton gave up 6 runs last time vs the Indians and is 0-3 vs them in his career.

Rays Orioles over 7.5 at -120 for 3 units. Chris Archer has been hanging his slider this year. Past 4 Tampa Bay games have gone over. Dylan Bundy has a 6.26 ERA vs the Rays in his career. Bundy has been pitching better for the O’s this year and has shown he is their Ace. Tampa’s bats are hot and these Aces arn’t good enough to warrant the low over/under number of 7.5.

Brewers ML at +142 for 2 units. Coin flip game here. Brewers are on an 8 game winning streak. Chase Anderson and Kyle Hendricks have been eerily similar this season, but Anderson has been a little bit better by my estimation. Cubs are up 3-1 on the season series. I think that number comes down towards the mean because the Cubs haven’t shown me they are that much better than the Brew Crew this season.