MLB April 26th

18-18 on MLB down 2.28 units

Tilted a little bit last night but it worked. Let’s get back to being a little more disciplined.

Braves ML at -130 for 3 units. Similar starting pitchers here. Homer Bailey has given up more home runs for the Reds than Sean Newcomb has for the Braves. Braves are 7-1 in day games. Reds are 1-10. Newcomb also looked better last time out than Bailey. I just think the Braves are better and I thought this line would be closer to -150 so I am taking the value.

Diamondbacks ML at +106 for 3 units. Matt Koch is a better pitcher than Ben Lively. Both of these pitchers are young. Lively had a “quality” start last time out, but if you look closer, he got out of a few tight spots and still did not get a win. Lively has given up more than 6 hits in every other MLB start. Koch looked good last time out vs the Padres, but the Diamondbacks only got 1 hit in that game. I expect more run support for Koch here.

Indians ML at -108 for 3 units. Similar angle to the Diamondbacks game. I like Mike Clevinger more than James Paxton. The have pitched the same amount of innings and Paxton has given up 3 more homers and 10 more baserunners. Paxton gave up 6 runs last time vs the Indians and is 0-3 vs them in his career.

Rays Orioles over 7.5 at -120 for 3 units. Chris Archer has been hanging his slider this year. Past 4 Tampa Bay games have gone over. Dylan Bundy has a 6.26 ERA vs the Rays in his career. Bundy has been pitching better for the O’s this year and has shown he is their Ace. Tampa’s bats are hot and these Aces arn’t good enough to warrant the low over/under number of 7.5.

Brewers ML at +142 for 2 units. Coin flip game here. Brewers are on an 8 game winning streak. Chase Anderson and Kyle Hendricks have been eerily similar this season, but Anderson has been a little bit better by my estimation. Cubs are up 3-1 on the season series. I think that number comes down towards the mean because the Cubs haven’t shown me they are that much better than the Brew Crew this season.

 

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