31-23-2 on NBA Playoffs up 21.03 units
Lebron James went off in the first half, then the Cavs sucked in the 2nd half. The Celtics turned it on, Rozier is fun to watch. J.R. Smith’s unnecessary shove on Al Horford late in the game summed up Cleveland’s frustrations well. Seemed like the Cavs were just standing there on defense in the second half. I still think the Celtics win this series and steal one in The Land. Celtics fans will be able to say they made Lebron leave for the Heat, and made Lebron leave for the team TBD. The Celtics win the series bet at plus money is still alive and well. Celtics to win the series has moved to -220…
Warriors +2 for 3 units. Best basketball team ever at +2 seems too easy. Warriors were in second gear it felt like in Game 1. I think they have another level to go up. The Rockets just don’t have the perimeter defense to guard Klay and Steph (nobody can guard KD). Ryan Anderson has been cold since his return from injury. Nene is getting minutes for the Rockets and KD was pissed when Kerr took him out when Nene was guarding him. I don’t think James Harden can play much better than he did in Game 1. The refs will most likely be on the Rockets side so the NBA can extend this series, but the Warriors are good enough to overcome that.
Trevor Ariza over 10 points at -108 for 3 units. Ariza was in foul trouble in Game 1 and only played 23 minutes. He still had 8 points. I think with added minutes he gets over this low number. Ariza averaged almost 12 points a game on the season and the Rockets will need his 3 point shooting if they want to win tonight.
Clint Capela over 15 points +106 for 1 unit. The Rockets have to find more ways to get Capela involved against the Warriors small ball lineup if they want to win. Playing Nene does not work. Capela had the best plus/minus for any Houston starter in Game 1 and I think he will get more than 30 minutes tonight.
14-10-4 on golf in 2018 up 17.77 units
Just going with guys who are underdogs in their head 2 head matchups but more likely to win the whole tournament according to Vegas. This is the first time this tournament has been played here (Trinity Forest) so who knows what plays well on this course. Just going with value plays.
Satoshi Kodaira over John Huh at +110 for 2 units. Kodaira is the better player at plus money. Easy play here.
Andrew Putnam over Seamus Power at -110 for 3 units. Putnam has solid driving accuracy and hits a lot of greens in regulation. Seamus is a solid putter, but he may not hit enough fairways on this links style course.
Maverick McNealy over Sam Saunders at +115 for 2 units. Maverick has the better name and is +9300 while Saunders is +10000 to win the tournament.
Billy Horschel over Marc Leishman at +140 for 2 units. These two have the same odds to win the tournament, so I will side with the underdog in this matchup. They have similar FedEx Cup points. Horschel is better at putting and off the tee in 2018, but Leishman has the better recovery.
Beau Hossler over Charles Howell III at +105 for 4 units. Hossler got 2nd at the Houston Open and is a solid putter. Howell III is better at driving, but I like how well Hossler played in Texas this year. Hossler is +2200 to win the tournament, while Howell is only +4200
46-49 on MLB in 2018 down 0.87 units
2-4 yesterday but went up 0.90 units
Rockies only got one hit against Jordan Lyles in the Padres win. Tigers came back from 4 down to beat the Indians. Syndergaard and the Mets got another win. Alex Wood and the Dodgers got another loss. Altuve got a weak 3 RBI double to beat the Angels. Heredia had a walk off for the Mariners the day the 80 game Cano suspension was laid out.
Pirates at -173 for 4 units. Pirates going for the season sweep of the White Sox today. The White Sox have lost all 10 games Hector Santiago has pitched in this season. Pirates are just better than the White Sox across the board.
Cardinals at -112 for 2 units. Mikolas has not lost a game all season for the Cardinals. St. Louis has lost 2 in a row, I think that changes today. Lance Lynn just gives up too many baserunners for the Twins.
Rays at -109 for 1 unit. Jason Hammel fade.
Diamondbacks at +103 for 1 unit.
Diamondbacks – Brewers over 8.5 for 1 unit. Brandon Woodruff fade. Brewers are only 5-10 in day games. Woodruff gave up 7 runs in 3 innings his last time out. Arizona has the second highest elevation for an MLB ballpark. Both these teams are injured, but I like the over.
Athletics at +233 for 1 unit. Value play. Chris Sale is good, but Trevor Cahill has been solid for the A’s this season. Red Sox are not as hot as earlier in the season. Boston strikeouts too much for my liking. Oakland’s bullpen has been impressive this season.
41-42-5 in Hockey up 7.28 units
Caps never got going against the Lightning. Victor Hedman had a great game for Tampa with a goal and two assists for the defenseman. Caps gave up too many power plays that left Holtby stranded (some of the penalties were soft). These NHL refs have been pretty bad these playoffs in my opinion. Tampa also stopped all 3 of Washington’s power plays. I expect the Caps to bounce back and win Game 4.
Knights at -135 for 3 units. Fleury looked great last game and I expect more of the same here. Both these teams have only lost once when they score first these playoffs. Jets have been great on the road this postseason, but I just think the Knights figured the Jets out last game. Knights won home ice advantage last game and they won’t give it up tonight.
Knights – Jets under 5.5 for 1 unit. Connor Hellebuyck will have a better game for the Jets. Fleury has looked solid this series. Knights have struggled to score on the power play lately, but they have done well on the penalty kill.
14-9 on tennis up 1.86 units
The Internazionali BNL d’Italia (Italian Open) – Rome ATP
Isner at -178 for 2 units. Isner is in better form than Ramos-Vinolas and has a better track record in Rome. Isner won the meeting between these two in Rome last season. Isner is better on clay now than he was then. Albert Ramos has not won back 2 back matches since February. Ramos-Vinolas has never made it past this round in Rome. Isner lost in Madrid last week to eventual champion Zverev. Look for some tiebreaks here.
Thiem at -247 for 4 units. Fognini is my favorite player on the tour because of his athletic lackadaisical style of play and his emotions on the court. I do not think there is a more volatile player on the tour. Thiem ended Nadal’s record of 50 straight set wins last week in Madrid. Thiem is 2-0 against Fognini all time and 1-0 on clay. This is a home event for Fognini, but he does not play well in Rome usually. Thiem is just too consistent for Fognini. I like to think Fabio goes out drinking with his homies before these events and that is why he struggles here..
Nishikori – Dimitrov over 22.5 for 3 units. Past 4 matches between these two has gone over this number. First meeting between these two on clay and I expect a little feeling out in set 1. Both players can be broken more easily than they would like when they meet each other.
Nishikori at -135 for 2 units. Dimitrov has an advantage serving out wide vs Nishikori. If Dimitrov goes to his second serve a lot, Kei will win this match easily. Nishikori is the better player when healthy and leads the head 2 head 4-1; however, Dimitrov won the most recent meeting. Dimitrov has a terrible history in Rome for a player of the Bulgarian #1’s quality.
Schwartzman at -183 for 4 units. Diego will be happy to play Paire and not Gasquet here. Schwartzman has never won against Gasquet and never lost to Paire. Diego looked good in his last match, but so did Paire. I think Schwartzman will win most of the rallies in this match and convert enough break points. Diego has not looked too good since he won in Rio, but he seems to be back on form in Rome.