14-9 on tennis up 1.86 units
The Internazionali BNL d’Italia (Italian Open) – Rome ATP
Isner at -178 for 2 units. Isner is in better form than Ramos-Vinolas and has a better track record in Rome. Isner won the meeting between these two in Rome last season. Isner is better on clay now than he was then. Albert Ramos has not won back 2 back matches since February. Ramos-Vinolas has never made it past this round in Rome. Isner lost in Madrid last week to eventual champion Zverev. Look for some tiebreaks here.
Thiem at -247 for 4 units. Fognini is my favorite player on the tour because of his athletic lackadaisical style of play and his emotions on the court. I do not think there is a more volatile player on the tour. Thiem ended Nadal’s record of 50 straight set wins last week in Madrid. Thiem is 2-0 against Fognini all time and 1-0 on clay. This is a home event for Fognini, but he does not play well in Rome usually. Thiem is just too consistent for Fognini. I like to think Fabio goes out drinking with his homies before these events and that is why he struggles here..
Nishikori – Dimitrov over 22.5 for 3 units. Past 4 matches between these two has gone over this number. First meeting between these two on clay and I expect a little feeling out in set 1. Both players can be broken more easily than they would like when they meet each other.
Nishikori at -135 for 2 units. Dimitrov has an advantage serving out wide vs Nishikori. If Dimitrov goes to his second serve a lot, Kei will win this match easily. Nishikori is the better player when healthy and leads the head 2 head 4-1; however, Dimitrov won the most recent meeting. Dimitrov has a terrible history in Rome for a player of the Bulgarian #1’s quality.
Schwartzman at -183 for 4 units. Diego will be happy to play Paire and not Gasquet here. Schwartzman has never won against Gasquet and never lost to Paire. Diego looked good in his last match, but so did Paire. I think Schwartzman will win most of the rallies in this match and convert enough break points. Diego has not looked too good since he won in Rio, but he seems to be back on form in Rome.