42-43-5 in Hockey up 8.51 units
4-1 on picking the winner in the past 5 NHL games. Missed the under last night by 2 seconds. Can’t be mad at Marchessault for scoring on the empty net though, that is what he is paid to do. I am sure it made a lot of Vegas fans and the over backers happy. The Golden Knights went up a goal early, then the Jets tied, then the Knights went up 2 goals. The Jets dominated the 3rd period after coach Paul Maurice went off on his players. Byfuglien separated the meddling kids in the 3rd period (he is a strong man). Knights do not win that game without Fleury.
Caps ML at -116 for 3 units. Caps can’t lose both games in Washington.. can they? Caps got outhit and outshot in Game 3, but I think they respond well tonight. Ovechkin and the Caps will get out to another early lead like they did the first two games this series. I honestly believe whoever wins this game, wins the series. Caps got down 3-0 last game, but they still played well in the 3rd period and only lost 4-2. Stamkos said the Lightning played with a lot more “structure” in Game 3, I expect the Caps to make the necessary adjustments tonight. Holtby can’t play much worse than he did last game and the Caps still only lost by 2.
Caps – Lightning under 6 for 1 unit. I think we get a more even game they we have got all series tonight. I expect a 3-2 or 4-2 win for the Caps. Every game has either hit this total or gone over, I think we get an under tonight. Holtby only had 19 saves last game while allowing 4 goals for the first time this postseason. I think he gets back on track tonight.
50-51 on MLB in 2018 up 3.11 units
4-2 yesterday and went up 3.98 units
Pivetta struck out 11 in the Phillies win over the Orioles. The Pirates completed the season sweep of the White Sox. Trevor Bauer struck out 10 in his shutout of the Tigers. Lance Lynn got another loss on the season, but this time it was against the team he won a World Series with (Cardinals). Blue Jays shitpumped the Mets. Bartolo Colon got a win and hit in his stomach. Colon said “his belly can take it”. Gennet is still raking for the Reds as they keep winning (even though they are 15-29). Chris Sale and the Red Sox avoided the sweep vs the Athletics. Verlander got his 8th career complete game shutout and struck out Shohei Ohtani for his 2,500 K. Also, the Braves young players are good, like real good.
Pirates at -143 for 2 units. Padres just are not very good. Eric Lauer gave up 6 earned runs in 2.1 innings his last time out. Pirates are averaging over 5 runs a game in their last 5 games. Pirates have a better team BA, ERA, BAA, OBP, and slugging percentage.
Blue Jays at -112 for 2 units. Toronto’s bats woke up yesterday and now they get to face Andrew Triggs. The Nashville native Triggs has given up a lot of home runs this season and I expect that to continue tonight. I expect a high scoring game, but the 9.5 number is tough to call on the over/under.
Angels at -167 for 4 units. Chris Archer has been bad this season. Archer will be up 0-2 in a count and hang a slider. His numbers are not awful, but they should be a lot better for a guy of his ability. Archer just lacks consistency. Angels will take advantage of that lack of consistency tonight. Angels are coming out of a tough series with the Astros and playing the Rays will be a breath of fresh air (not that the Rays are bad, Astros are just great). Tyler Skaggs has given up only 2 earned runs in each of his last 3 starts, but they have all been losses for the Angels. I think Skaggs gets back on the winning track tonight.
Tigers at +160 for 2 units. Matthew Boyd last pitched against the Mariners and Marco Gonzales last pitched against the Tigers. They both take the mound tonight for their respective teams. Boyd gave up 3 hits last time he faced the Mariners. Gonzales gave up 10 hits last time he faced the Tigers. I’ll let you decided which team won that matchup. This line is fishy and usually I would zag and take the Mariners, but I am zigging tonight.
Rockies at +125 for 1 unit. Rockies have struggled to hit the ball this season away from home, but Jeff Samardzija may be the remedy they need. Samardzija has given up 5 earned runs in his last two starts. Samardzija has not pitched well since 4/20. Rockies are an impressive 16-9 on the road. Chad Bettis has been great since he recovered from cancer. Cancer can go to hell. Bettis struggled last time out, but he has only given up 5 earned runs in 5 road starts.
16-10 on tennis down 3.56 units
The Internazionali BNL d’Italia (Italian Open) – Rome ATP
Thiem and Schwartzman let me down. Thiem had twice as many double faults as aces in his loss to Fognini. Thiem had landed only 55% of his first serves compared to Fognini’s 71%. Schwartzman won the first set and was up a break in the second set before blowing the second set and getting blown out in the third set to Paire. Schwartzman is now 4-5 on European clay this season, but should still be a career high top 12 seed at Roland Garros.
Fabio Fognini at -420 for 3 units. Peter Gojowczyk has never done this well on clay. Peter was on a 6 match losing streak before Rome. Fognini is the better player on clay and is at home. Fognini can beat anyone, even himself, but I like him to move on here.
Aljaz Bedene +2 for 3 units. Bedene has won the last two matches over Carreno-Busta on clay, but they were close. Bedene should be well-rested after Kevin Anderson retired against him in the last round. Bedene is playing the best tennis of his career in 2018 and I expect that to continue.
Bedene : Carreno-Busta over 22 for 4 units. Every match they have ever played has gone over this number.
Juan Martin Del Potro at -138 for 3 units. Goffin has not been in the best form lately. These two have never met on clay. David Goffin had a tough time against Marco Cecchinato in round 2. Del Potro is a lot better than Cecchinato. Del Potro is the stronger, offensive player, while Goffin is the better returner. Del Potro would do best to attack away from Goffin’s body on his serve as Goffin is crafty. Goffin lost to Edmund in Madrid and Del Potro has a similar, but better style of play to Edmund.
Shapovalov +7 for 1 unit. Nadal wants revenge on Shapovalov for when the young Canadian #1 beat him in Canada. It is tough betting against Nadal on clay, but Shapovalov is playing the best tennis of his career.
Alexander Zverev at -270 for 8 units. Riding the hot hand here. Zverev has won 18 straight sets on clay. This would be a lot more impressive if Nadal didn’t just win 50 straight sets on clay.
Kei Nishikori at -179 for 3 units. Kei should be able to get past Kohlschreiber here. Kei has never lost to Philipp. If Kei is healthy he will win this match (big if). Jack Sock did not test Kohlschreiber in the last round, but I expect Nishikori to be a lot more consistent than Sock. Nishikori is a better athlete and the better returner so I like him here.