16-10 on tennis down 3.56 units
The Internazionali BNL d’Italia (Italian Open) – Rome ATP
Thiem and Schwartzman let me down. Thiem had twice as many double faults as aces in his loss to Fognini. Thiem had landed only 55% of his first serves compared to Fognini’s 71%. Schwartzman won the first set and was up a break in the second set before blowing the second set and getting blown out in the third set to Paire. Schwartzman is now 4-5 on European clay this season, but should still be a career high top 12 seed at Roland Garros.
Fabio Fognini at -420 for 3 units. Peter Gojowczyk has never done this well on clay. Peter was on a 6 match losing streak before Rome. Fognini is the better player on clay and is at home. Fognini can beat anyone, even himself, but I like him to move on here.
Aljaz Bedene +2 for 3 units. Bedene has won the last two matches over Carreno-Busta on clay, but they were close. Bedene should be well-rested after Kevin Anderson retired against him in the last round. Bedene is playing the best tennis of his career in 2018 and I expect that to continue.
Bedene : Carreno-Busta over 22 for 4 units. Every match they have ever played has gone over this number.
Juan Martin Del Potro at -138 for 3 units. Goffin has not been in the best form lately. These two have never met on clay. David Goffin had a tough time against Marco Cecchinato in round 2. Del Potro is a lot better than Cecchinato. Del Potro is the stronger, offensive player, while Goffin is the better returner. Del Potro would do best to attack away from Goffin’s body on his serve as Goffin is crafty. Goffin lost to Edmund in Madrid and Del Potro has a similar, but better style of play to Edmund.
Shapovalov +7 for 1 unit. Nadal wants revenge on Shapovalov for when the young Canadian #1 beat him in Canada. It is tough betting against Nadal on clay, but Shapovalov is playing the best tennis of his career.
Alexander Zverev at -270 for 8 units. Riding the hot hand here. Zverev has won 18 straight sets on clay. This would be a lot more impressive if Nadal didn’t just win 50 straight sets on clay.
Kei Nishikori at -179 for 3 units. Kei should be able to get past Kohlschreiber here. Kei has never lost to Philipp. If Kei is healthy he will win this match (big if). Jack Sock did not test Kohlschreiber in the last round, but I expect Nishikori to be a lot more consistent than Sock. Nishikori is a better athlete and the better returner so I like him here.