51-25-2 on tennis up 17.08 units
Should have bet Verdasco straight up instead of games. I thought Monfils would wear down a little more in the second and third set. Verdasco still won the match, but actually won less games. My max play Fognini lost the first set and was down a break in the second set, but then he flipped the switch and won. Some people think Fognini is frustrating because he does not give it his all, but I find him to be the most entertaining player on the ATP tour. Berrettini covered easily due to his ability to save every break point and Leonardo Mayer’s terrible form. Sousa, surprisingly to me, got worked by Rublev.
Del Potro -3 for 2 units. Karen Khachanov got a tough draw here. Karen is 0-8 against the top 5 in his career. Del Potro has already beat him twice this season, covering 3 games both times. Not going to overthink this one.
Medvedev at -139 for 2 units. Daniil Medvedev had an impressive straight set win over the 4 seed, Diego Schwartzman, in the last round. Martin Klizan and Medvedev have had impressive hardcourt season so far. Klizan is 13-4 and Medvedev is 9-3 on the hardcourt. Klizan has a high ceiling, but he is going to have to play a near perfect game to win here. I like Daniil at these odds.
Berrettini at +111 for 2 units. Matteo Berrettini is in better form than Kyle Edmund; however, both players are having their most impressive years to date. Berrettini is having a much better season on hard courts. Edmund is just 11-9 on hard courts this season. Matteo has made to the round of 16 in his past two tournaments and will want to get over the hump here. Edmund won the only previous meeting, but that was on clay when Matteo was still a teenager.